Analysis on Hougang BE

[Perspective]

A long time since I have done a political analysis, so here it goes.

My view is that the Hougang by-election will be called soon as the PAP wants to get it out of the way because they know winning is mostly not possible. The timeframe of April - May would probably be likely as PM Lee has chosen the same timeline for the 2006 and 2011 GE - and after a sweet budget.

This BE, I would say, would have nearly all aspects in favour of WP - simply because it is in Hougang, and not, say, Joo Chiat or Pioneer.

1) If WP margin go up, it's a win from having come out from the scandal.

2) If WP margin goes down, it has 14% to play with, and unlikely to lose. Let PAP have this narrowing-the-margin "victory" so that they will be less aggressive up to 2016 thinking its support had been restored - it might even be a false front for bigger losses in 2016. As for WP, take it as a punishment and humbling slap over the YSL incident.

3) If WP does indeed lose, there is 2016 to win it back. Unlike PP, Hougang is surrounded by Aljunied GRC - where can it be drawn to?

4) If two or more "external" opposition come in, they will lose their deposits. Though it also create a little image damage to themselves, it will be little and forgettable.

5) The damage will severe for these opposition if WP actually loses when they contest. As said in #3, WP can win Hougang back, but the opposition candidate/party will always be seen as having "assisted" PAP to win back Hougang.

6) On top of #4 and #5, WP would have the perfect excuse to no longer bother with avoiding 3-corner fights in 2016 (and attending those pointless opposition meetings in my view). Not that WP has always been way-giving, just that it no longer need to do it the slow, tactical and "reasonable" way, but can simply step in anywhere blatantly.

Hence, every factor is in favour of WP no matter what scenario turns up. It's because that's Hougang and not anywhere else.

 

[Perspective]

Sorry. Very, very, very unlikely.

 

[Varuna]

GEORGE YEO will be PAP candidate.

I doubt George Yeo in right frame of mind would take this up. Ex- Foreign minister booted out in last election desperate to the extent of having to fight for an MP post in a small SMC.

 

[Varuna]

i am now asking if George is the candidate, what is Perspective's analysis? will it change?

I see... fire the trigger too fast. PaiSay bros...

 

[Perspective]

i am now asking if George is the candidate, what is Perspective's analysis? will it change?

My analysis already covers all fronts, you can insert George Yeo into 1, 2 or 3. I would think it is #2 in a straight fight, with WP's candidate 55% and George 45%. That would be an achievement already, but GY knows this too and a second loss is probably not something he wants.

It is quite confirm that DC will be PAP's Hougang candidate unless he suddenly retires or dies for any reason.

 

[callmebad]

Don't think PAP is interested in this kind of by-election.
If Hougang residents don't ask for a by-election, PAP may just act blur and keep quiet.
LTK is doing all he can to contain the political damage from the recent scandal.
Hougang is different from Potong Pasir

 

[Perspective]

Don't think PAP is interested in this kind of by-election.
If Hougang residents don't ask for a by-election, PAP may just act blur and keep quiet.
LTK is doing all he can to contain the political damage from the recent scandal.
Hougang is different from Potong Pasir

PM has already said that BE will be called, so the speculation is moot, but you are right that the PAP doesn't like it because it is Hougang.

If you know LTK, he probably thinks sacking YSL was the most extreme he can do and don't think he will try and do anything else - what else anyway unless all the 7 remaining MPs also step down or he close down WP, but that's probably the unrealistic dreams of the insect only.

 

[Varuna]

It is quite confirm that DC will be PAP's Hougang candidate unless he suddenly retires or dies for any reason.

I think fielding DC will make PAP's lost within everyone's expectation and is just re-exposing an old wound that is already healed and scarred. If they were to field another new candidate, it will create another fresh wound for anti-PAP supporters to put more salt. Anyway DC is an expended round which they can re-cycle and no reason to waste another new round with no clear win in sight.

 

[Perspective]

I think fielding DC will make PAP's lost within everyone's expectation and is just re-exposing an old wound that is already healed and scarred. If they were to field another new candidate, it will create another fresh wound for anti-PAP supporters to put more salt. Anyway DC is an expended round which they can re-cycle and no reason to waste another new round with no clear win in sight.

Not fielding DC doesn't change the outcome anyway, but it at least shows that PAP candidates have some level of tenacity and gain some familiarity. In the past, a new PAP candidate was introduced in PP, and PAP's work in PP was always set back. They learnt their lesson and started putting Andy Gan/Sitoh/Eric Low in opposition wards to gain some momentum.

One thing about PAP candidates is the expenses are all covered, so there is no loss unless you are very high-level, which means you will have opportunity costs. To DC, there is no loss, but to GY, yes.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

(1) is unlikely. The root cause of the BE is something negative, and it erupted barely a year after LTK left HG. There will be a few HG residents who will decide to switch camps.

(2) PAP is also unlikely to view an HG %age drop as something that bodes well for 2016. Firstly, 2016 is a long way off. Secondly, they know it is due to a one-off factor. If the new WP MP does his work well, it will more than compensate. Come 2016, none of the "actors" will be candidates, and the affair will be forgotten.

(3) This will be the ultimate nightmare for WP. The PAP will redraw the boundary in the most unfair way possible -- they will absorb HG, a small part of Aljunied, and large part of another GRC into a 4-member GRC. In effect reducing the size of Aljunied, and destroying HG's status as the jewel SMC of the opposition. To maintain Aljunied as a 5-member GRC, they will then "add" land to Aljunied to dilute opposition votes.

(4) TJS may be the spoiler, but I doubt it. His goals are more long term, and to be a spoiler will ruin everything he has sought. But just to qualify, just because I believe his goals are long term, does not mean I think they will benefit Singaporeans.

A long time since I have done a political analysis, so here it goes.

My view is that the Hougang by-election will be called soon as the PAP wants to get it out of the way because they know winning is mostly not possible. The timeframe of April - May would probably be likely as PM Lee has chosen the same timeline for the 2006 and 2011 GE - and after a sweet budget.

This BE, I would say, would have nearly all aspects in favour of WP - simply because it is in Hougang, and not, say, Joo Chiat or Pioneer.

1) If WP margin go up, it's a win from having come out from the scandal.

2) If WP margin goes down, it has 14% to play with, and unlikely to lose. Let PAP have this narrowing-the-margin "victory" so that they will be less aggressive up to 2016 thinking its support had been restored - it might even be a false front for bigger losses in 2016. As for WP, take it as a punishment and humbling slap over the YSL incident.

3) If WP does indeed lose, there is 2016 to win it back. Unlike PP, Hougang is surrounded by Aljunied GRC - where can it be drawn to?

4) If two or more "external" opposition come in, they will lose their deposits. Though it also create a little image damage to themselves, it will be little and forgettable.

 

[Perspective]

(1) is unlikely. The root cause of the BE is something negative, and it erupted barely a year after LTK left HG. There will be a few HG residents who will decide to switch camps.

(2) PAP is also unlikely to view an HG %age drop as something that bodes well for 2016. Firstly, 2016 is a long way off. Secondly, they know it is due to a one-off factor. If the new WP MP does his work well, it will more than compensate. Come 2016, none of the "actors" will be candidates, and the affair will be forgotten.

(3) This will be the ultimate nightmare for WP. The PAP will redraw the boundary in the most unfair way possible -- they will absorb HG, a small part of Aljunied, and large part of another GRC into a 4-member GRC. In effect reducing the size of Aljunied, and destroying HG's status as the jewel SMC of the opposition. To maintain Aljunied as a 5-member GRC, they will then "add" land to Aljunied to dilute opposition votes.

(4) TJS may be the spoiler, but I doubt it. His goals are more long term, and to be a spoiler will ruin everything he has sought. But just to qualify, just because I believe his goals are long term, does not mean I think they will benefit Singaporeans.

Agree that (1) is unlikely. 64% was already a peak and the result surprised me. I can only surmise that the 2% extra was the result of 6% nation wide swing.

On (2) you are right. Maybe the PAP will not see it as a 2016 signal, but I am sure it will celebrate this narrowing and the press headlines will go "PAP narrows margin in Hougang".

(3) is unlikely. Even if Hougang goes back to PAP, it should remain a single ward in 2016.

On (4), I do not think there will be any 3rd candidate, at the end of the day.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

In the highly unlikely event that george yeo can be persuaded to stand in HG, it will obviously be a positive for PAP. GY is a seasoned man, ex-minister, very long track record in both public service as well as ground work. PAP will market him as the electorate's chance to vote back someone they kicked out in 2011 -- in essence telling the voters if they choose GY they are essentially be having they cake and eating it.

However, GY will still be defeated, so that returns us to scenario 2 where HG percentage drops, but it does not signify anything in the long run. GY will be a twice defeated politicians and his legacy will take a further tumble. Looks doubly bad on him, and he has nothing to gain from this.

 

[Ramseth]

George Yeo will never agree. Losing to LTK, Sylvia and CSM in a GRC is a loss but nevertheless a considerably honorable loss. Losing in an SMC would be a disgrace.

 

[Khun Ying Pojaman]

George Yeo will never agree. Losing to LTK, Sylvia and CSM in a GRC is a loss but nevertheless a considerably honorable loss. Losing in an GRC would be a disgrace.

Old liao ah ? Or drunk ?

 

[Khun Ying Pojaman]

Any analysis on Hougang BE is incomplete without contribution from GMS.

I'm waiting to hear from GMS.

 

[myfoot123]

GEORGE YEO will be PAP candidate.

He has sinned for proposing two IRs in Singapore and to be a PAP man, he is beyond hope.

 

[Ramseth]

George Yeo will never agree. Losing to LTK, Sylvia and CSM in a GRC is a loss but nevertheless a considerably honorable loss. Losing in an SMC would be a disgrace.

Old liao ah ? Or drunk ?

Sorry typo, careless typo while talking on phone.

 

[Khun Ying Pojaman]

Sorry typo, careless typo while talking on phone.

You mustn't suka suka make typo error. It's alright for Alamaking, but not you. You're my English language IDOL

 

[Perspective]

Any analysis on Hougang BE is incomplete without contribution from GMS.

I'm waiting to hear from GMS.

Please, (overgrown) children should stay out of such topics, unless you want to see a picture of snake with legs. Mine is real, neutral analysis, not some jealous grudge against WP passed off as "analysis" or anal-shit. I might believe here that WP has many factors in its favour, but never said WP "sure win" or "never wrong", just like its mirror position that WP "sure lose" and "always wrong".

 

[Sadist]

4) If two or more "external" opposition come in, they will lose their deposits. Though it also create a little image damage to themselves, it will be little and forgettable.

5) The damage will severe for these opposition if WP actually loses when they contest. As said in #3, WP can win Hougang back, but the opposition candidate/party will always be seen as having "assisted" PAP to win back Hougang.

6) On top of #4 and #5, WP would have the perfect excuse to no longer bother with avoiding 3-corner fights in 2016 (and attending those pointless opposition meetings in my view). Not that WP has always been way-giving, just that it no longer need to do it the slow, tactical and "reasonable" way, but can simply step in anywhere blatantly.

What kind of BE analysis is this? It read more like another pre-empt attack on other oppostion parties! Or a warning from the WP camp to other opposition parties, don't fool with us.

Point 6, sounds like WP member here have really big ego.

If this is not the WP position, don't paint it as such, otherwise it is people like you that will give WP a bad name.