A long time since I have done a political analysis, so here it goes.
My view is that the Hougang by-election will be called soon as the PAP wants to get it out of the way because they know winning is mostly not possible. The timeframe of April - May would probably be likely as PM Lee has chosen the same timeline for the 2006 and 2011 GE - and after a sweet budget.
This BE, I would say, would have nearly all aspects in favour of WP - simply because it is in Hougang, and not, say, Joo Chiat or Pioneer.
1) If WP margin go up, it's a win from having come out from the scandal.
2) If WP margin goes down, it has 14% to play with, and unlikely to lose. Let PAP have this narrowing-the-margin "victory" so that they will be less aggressive up to 2016 thinking its support had been restored - it might even be a false front for bigger losses in 2016. As for WP, take it as a punishment and humbling slap over the YSL incident.
3) If WP does indeed lose, there is 2016 to win it back. Unlike PP, Hougang is surrounded by Aljunied GRC - where can it be drawn to?
4) If two or more "external" opposition come in, they will lose their deposits. Though it also create a little image damage to themselves, it will be little and forgettable.
5) The damage will severe for these opposition if WP actually loses when they contest. As said in #3, WP can win Hougang back, but the opposition candidate/party will always be seen as having "assisted" PAP to win back Hougang.
6) On top of #4 and #5, WP would have the perfect excuse to no longer bother with avoiding 3-corner fights in 2016 (and attending those pointless opposition meetings in my view). Not that WP has always been way-giving, just that it no longer need to do it the slow, tactical and "reasonable" way, but can simply step in anywhere blatantly.
Hence, every factor is in favour of WP no matter what scenario turns up. It's because that's Hougang and not anywhere else.
My view is that the Hougang by-election will be called soon as the PAP wants to get it out of the way because they know winning is mostly not possible. The timeframe of April - May would probably be likely as PM Lee has chosen the same timeline for the 2006 and 2011 GE - and after a sweet budget.
This BE, I would say, would have nearly all aspects in favour of WP - simply because it is in Hougang, and not, say, Joo Chiat or Pioneer.
1) If WP margin go up, it's a win from having come out from the scandal.
2) If WP margin goes down, it has 14% to play with, and unlikely to lose. Let PAP have this narrowing-the-margin "victory" so that they will be less aggressive up to 2016 thinking its support had been restored - it might even be a false front for bigger losses in 2016. As for WP, take it as a punishment and humbling slap over the YSL incident.
3) If WP does indeed lose, there is 2016 to win it back. Unlike PP, Hougang is surrounded by Aljunied GRC - where can it be drawn to?
4) If two or more "external" opposition come in, they will lose their deposits. Though it also create a little image damage to themselves, it will be little and forgettable.
5) The damage will severe for these opposition if WP actually loses when they contest. As said in #3, WP can win Hougang back, but the opposition candidate/party will always be seen as having "assisted" PAP to win back Hougang.
6) On top of #4 and #5, WP would have the perfect excuse to no longer bother with avoiding 3-corner fights in 2016 (and attending those pointless opposition meetings in my view). Not that WP has always been way-giving, just that it no longer need to do it the slow, tactical and "reasonable" way, but can simply step in anywhere blatantly.
Hence, every factor is in favour of WP no matter what scenario turns up. It's because that's Hougang and not anywhere else.
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