It's like some say oppositions lose elections because of poor Malay support. But the maths tell us even if even if 80% of Malay voted for oppositions, the results of 2006 GE will remain the same. ( 2 seats won and maybe aljunied grc )
Sometime in the 80s, LKY decided to play the race card. He appealed, whilst speaking in Mandarin - with the clear intention that his message was not meant to be carried by his English language prostitute press - to a Chinese audience, for the Chinese to come together in order to prevent minorities from deciding who would be in power. He recognise that if the 75% Chinese majority were split, the 25% minorities would decide his and his party's fate.
What you say is valid in a one-sided fight. It is different when you try to make a fight a little more equal.
There is absolute no argument that you need to win the majority of the Chinese votes in order to win any elections in Singapore. The reality of course is that you will never, ever be able to win 100% of the Chinese votes.
With the PAP benefiting from incumbency, a grassroots organisation with tentacles that reach out everywhere, an opposition in a Chinese-based party can, even with the current unhappiness with the PAP and based on my overly generous estimate, acquire only 60-65% (max) of the Chinese votes. That means that the PAP will get only 35-40% of the Chinese votes. (Conceivable? With RC people profiting from the sale of funeral blankets and even "opposition" candidates voting for the PAP, does anyone really think that the PAP will only get 35-40% of the Chinese votes?)
That works out to 45-48% in real terms. To cross the 50% line, you will need that 2-5% which will have to come from the minorities. As much as you may not want to acknowledge it or as groupthink will have it, the votes of the minorities do help determine who wins an election especially when it is not a one-sided affair.
Don't forget, the minorities comprise not only the 15% Malays but also 10% of Indians and "Others". I can't see any minority who would throw in their lot with a Chinese-based party as much as they hate and despise the PAP for turning increasingly Sinicentric.
As I have stated before, it is an extremely difficult choice between the devil and the deep blue sea. And the PAP with its track record of building mosques for Malays in every HDB estate, having prominent Indians and Malays to represent their community interests, etc will continue to have an overwhelming share of that 25% minority votes.
The proof, as the old proverb goes, is in the pudding. The fact that Chinese based parties have never been able to attract credible minorities in their parties or as election candidates is the proof that you or anyone seek.
Please don't insult the minorities by resorting to tokenism and having one token Malay clown or one pathetic Indian jester with zero standing in the community stand for elections just because you can't attract any "heavyweight" minorities into your Chinese-based party. They won't accept the insult.
GMS, as far I as can see, will never be able to secure support from the minorities to win. He is, through his own tasteless commentaries and degrading labels about minorities, perceived to be, rightly or wrongly, a Sinicentric Chinese out to represent Chinese interest.
I believe GMS is not fighting to beat the PAP but to beat other opposition parties in order to qualify for that second class NCMP seat. If he can't even win an NCMP seat, he may well do a Steve Chia.
If the PAP does indeed find him a threat, he will be hammered for his hypocrisy for profiting from the sale of his HDB flat (since he is making the price of HDB flats an issue) to fulfill his personal political ambition, as much as he, like most politicians, would like to couch their personal political ambitions as the ultimate self-sacrifice for the country and their fellow citizens. He will also be hammered for his degrading comments about minorities if the PAP does indeed find him a threat.
The PAP will cut him a whole lot of slack if he turns out to be nothing more than a PEP politician. That is the only current route to Parliament. Even KJ, to his father's eternal shame, realises this just like some other PEP politicians before him did.
