The Prime Minister's By-Elections Dilemma

[mojito]

Going by your logic, the PAP delayed the Hougang BE to help WP.

Yes it did.

 

[pakjiaosniper]

WP only and best option is to field JJ.

Problem: JJ been ground building in JC -*- sacrifice to move him -*- if he stay in JC, if still SMC, PAP lose acting Speaker

Likely: WP keep LLL -*- she working hard on ground -*- what better contrast than nice-but-loud, what-you-see-is-what-you-get auntie-next-door -*- to moralistic hypocrite who not said a single word to defend the kakia he screwed n being screwed by MSM, while he gets away "honourable man"

 

[elephanto]

In his father's day, resigning and saying sorry was not considered "honorable".
You literally had to take poison and kill yourself.

ouch! :-o

Wow what a way of putting things... :-p

 

[pakjiaosniper]

George, OYK, and all super scholars currently in civil or military services are going to stare at their shoes or ceiling ... expect someone of Sitoh calibre only.

Prob: as said

Likely: agree, PAP branch activist * branch now more prominence, ref 2012 Conference, tactical change to fighting ground, not parachute, lose crack troops (Aljunied) * damage control, paint BE as local issue like Hougang * if WP win, parliament no change (GG give up NCMP; a loss?)

 

[elephanto]

In the improbable event that the incumbent party retain this seat, whoever is the organizing sec for this BE Campaign will likely to be the next Sec-Gen of PAP...

Given current mood, even Old Man at his prime will find it challenging, let alone all the politically imbecilic in the current Leadership.

if i am LHL I will be resigned to losing this SMC, because in reality, nothing other than face is lost which is not new.

Will use the BE to test some electioneering strategy, technique or cull more real ground truths from the political landscape : Opp & electorate dynamics ... Placing all priority to the next major real challenge GE 2016.

 

[elephanto]

Those impatient will stand beos BE is as rare as a blue moon.

impatient definition is : cant wait for Old Man to pass on.

for whatever symbolic reason, many interested parties of all shades are bidding their time for LKY to return pink ic first.

 

[wikiphile]

After last night and if I was indeed in his shoes, I too will find it difficult. Not calling a BE for an SMC in which they hold the seat shows loss of confidence.

His hand will be forced. He is going to state that a BE will be held sometime 2013 but will buy time and build the ground support from scratch just to be sure that the PA ground support crew is not damaged, a good candidate is found and lastly scan the intelligence reports to see who the opposition has.

WP only and best option is to field JJ. The time delay factor will also benefit the slow moving yet careful ground building style of WP. Yet another concern for the PM. If SDP throws its weight behind WP, PAP will be in trouble. SDP can make a lot of noise both online and in public.

I mentioned a certain ambitious person is rubbing her hands gleefully for this chance earlier. JJ is much more valuable to them in the east and not for a single seat far removed from east coast/joo chiat

 

[scroobal]

Point taken. Joo Chiat will go but East Coast is worth waiting for.

I mentioned a certain ambitious person is rubbing her hands gleefully for this chance earlier. JJ is much more valuable to them in the east and not for a single seat far removed from east coast/joo chiat

 

[wikiphile]

Point taken. Joo Chiat will go but East Coast is worth waiting for.

Anyways, i see a hard fight and likely a very narrow win for the PAP's charsiew in this BE. Can the next Palmer-wannabe do better or fare worse than his/her predecessor?

 

[TracyTan866]

Unlike a GE, where the PAP can slip in lesser qualities thru GRC setups, it is not the same as in a SMC and where the entire nation's attention is focused in one place. That also includes all the online forms. By the way, those who were present realised that all well known forums are actually anti establishment including Hardware Zone. The forums have a higher profile and carry more informative content than blogs. And where the blogs are influential, they are in the hands of anti establishment or liberal identities.

The decision is to wait for the dust to settle before a detailed ground reading is undertaken. It will not be confined to Punggol but the entire country. As a by elections tends to be a proxy battle for all of Singapore.

The PM cannot use the Ong Chit Chung GRC argument to make the case for not having a BE. He also cannot find a reason to state the difference between Hougang and Ponggol. He really wants to have a BE but he cannot afford to lose this seat.

Funnily his dilemma would have been the same if Palmer had died in office. Their assessment is that Palmer was so well regarded that his "grave" mistake would not be result in a voters backlash. As one pundit suggested, it looks like his resignation might have been too hasty. They should have just removed him as speaker as punishment.

Looks like at this stage no one really knows what he will do. It might be a finger in the air after all.

Thanks for the great insight!

looks like LHL and the pap are at thei wits ends

 

[TracyTan866]

WP only and best option is to field JJ.

I dont see why WP wld want to field an NCMP like YJJ..GG and YJJ are already in Parliament. The aim must be to get another person into Parliament..and my bet is that WP will field LLL

 

[kukubird58]

hahaha....as usual a lot of pretence about meeting/hearing from papee sources.....
made u wonder whether my idol is a double headed snake in real life.....lol.
even kukubird can tell u all this and more.....
papee knew long before your time since the 1981 Anson BE that the chances of opps winning a smc by-election is very high...
they have resisted holding such a BE since then until the 2012 HG BE......
so those who think that this is a new mood is fooled and certainly all the opps parties are rubbing their hands in glee take their chances.....
lhl went ahead with HG BE becos he is prepared to loose the seat.....hence if there was a fluke result and papee won, it would have been a bonus.
now of course he is caught in dilemma.....he is under pressure from the general public to hold a BE but he is afraid that opps party may win again and he is not prepared to loose the seat...
but he has no choice and he will have to hold one due to public expectations.....for sure he is going to have a big headache deciding when is the best time for papee...

 

[myfoot123]

Come on,he's earning many many times more than Obama and he can't even decide on a by-election issue as if he's going to lose power and die if he lost Punggol East SMC .So indecisive and uncharismatic and guts-less that we can call him Pinky the Bumbler.Obama in his presidentional electon ,decisively pledged to increase taxes of the upper class which is the right and correct policy for the benefit of majority of the american citizens although costing him votes.His head is so engrossed and obsessed with power and money that he has neglected to raise the standard of liivng and quality of life of the average singaporean citizens.If he got cancer relapse,that's God's punishment.

There is every reason for PAP to fear any election since the watershed in May 2011. Simply PAP cannot accept reality and the heat from the people. They knew very well they have been hiding behind main stream media to paint them the good image, a stark contrast from the real sentiment once they stepped out of the msm. Election is an amplifier of those negative sentiment. PAP fear it like a ghost.

 

[3_M]

I dont see why WP wld want to field an NCMP like YJJ..GG and YJJ are already in Parliament. The aim must be to get another person into Parliament..and my bet is that WP will field LLL

Most likely LLL since she knows the ground and residents there are familiar with her. Parachute someone else like YJJ can be interpreted that WP has no other heavyweight other than that 8MP/NCMP.

On another note WP and PAP is tie at 1-1 factoring YAwgate and Palmergate. If PAP wins it still 1-1 but victory for WP means it 2-1.Though it just a SMC, letting WP wins this BE means the tide will dramatically shift into their favor and expect more closer fight between PAP and WP in 2016, something PAP don't want to see.

 

[Sinkie]

Most likely LLL since she knows the ground and residents there are familiar with her. Parachute someone else like YJJ can be interpreted that WP has no other heavyweight other than that 8MP/NCMP.

On another note WP and PAP is tie at 1-1 factoring YAwgate and Palmergate. If PAP wins it still 1-1 but victory for WP means it 2-1.Though it just a SMC, letting WP wins this BE means the tide will dramatically shift into their favor and expect more closer fight between PAP and WP in 2016, something PAP don't want to see.

No way WP is going to win Punggol East with LLL.

If she is popular with the residents, Palmer would never have won and she would have.

It would be suicide for WP to field LLL.

I say again. Punggol East is NOT Hougang.

 

[scroobal]

Firstly Eric must be cursing himself yet again for being immature and detached.

The fact that LTK picked Gerald and not Eric shows that he knows how to handle his team. So LL might not be the one.

I wonder if the opposition would come together to put the best man forward.

Most likely LLL since she knows the ground and residents there are familiar with her. Parachute someone else like YJJ can be interpreted that WP has no other heavyweight other than that 8MP/NCMP.

On another note WP and PAP is tie at 1-1 factoring YAwgate and Palmergate. If PAP wins it still 1-1 but victory for WP means it 2-1.Though it just a SMC, letting WP wins this BE means the tide will dramatically shift into their favor and expect more closer fight between PAP and WP in 2016, something PAP don't want to see.

 

[Sinkie]

No need to talk so much cock and bull.

The BESTEST person for WP to contest in Punggol East, if there's a BE, is none other than Michelle Lee.

PAP has no weapon against her, that's because I can read LTK's palmer like a crystal ball.

Bring it on. No more guessing. Case closed.

 

[tanwahp]

There will definitely be a BE. A precedence was set for Hougang and it will look very bad for PAP to apply the laws arbitrarily without any real reason to justify.

PAP may get a new face if not OYK, but won't be someone spectacular. People are staying away from PAP candidacy these days.

WP won't have any surprise candidates. It was a stroke of luck that they could find a Chen Show Mao after many years. Such people are hard to come by; they are either overseas, with the elites and not interested in politics.

 

[zhihau]

People are staying away from PAP candidacy these days.

am not surprised if another ex-Army fella steps forward :o:o:o

 

[neddy]

If Loong want to win so much, pull himself out of his GRC to compete in the BE lah! Sure win one.

No need by-election for GRC, right?