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Serious Price Collapse For 40 Years-Old HDB Flats! Buy!

JohnTan

Alfrescian (InfP)
Generous Asset
What less than $50k? Should be less than $5k. I heard three room flat only $8k in 1970s.

So what is the problem with old hags like you? You bought HDB at $5k, sold at $250k - $300k. You already made a huge profit. So what's the unhappiness with PAP about? Can't bear to part with some of that profit to pay for ERP or GST?
 

ginfreely

Alfrescian
Loyal
So what is the problem with old hags like you? You bought HDB at $5k, sold at $250k - $300k. You already made a huge profit. So what's the unhappiness with PAP about? Can't bear to part with some of that profit to pay for ERP or GST?
Your smelly cunt wife is the old hag complaining. Not me. I say PAP The Best!
 

Papsmearer

Alfrescian (InfP) - Comp
Generous Asset
nothing new and surprising anymore. warnings have already been posted numerous times on sbf about the pitfalls of “owning” a hdb flat. papsmearer has contributed extensively on this topic. the content is buried in threads but there’s no “hdb” nor property folders to contain them all. much of the opinions, debates, analyses, and info are there. forummers and sinkies affected can search for them. anyway sinkies will kpkb and wait for someone to do all the leg work for them. it’s beyond redemption. should just go to marina bay en masse and jump.

Thank u for saying so eatshit. I have been expousing on this and exposing this PAP HDB scam for years now. Back then, many forumners were leery about my claims and idiots believe that the PAP will magnanimously renew their lease for free at the end of the 99 years. I also mentioned too that banks will not financed older flats hence, lowering the owners abilities to get max money from it. It has come to roost. Perhaps Sam should be them in a folder as u suggested.
 

Papsmearer

Alfrescian (InfP) - Comp
Generous Asset
Only the foolish and gullible will believe what Lawrence Wong is saying.

The truth of the matter is that all the HDB flats will get SERS. They are however doing everything possible to ensure that that the SERS valuation of old HDB flats will not be 400k to 500k. With the restriction of financial loans and scare tactics that old HDB flat will become valueless, they hope to drop the market value of such old flats to between 50k to 100k. They can then get old HDB flats in prime locations for a steal. It seems unlikely that they will wait the lease to draw down to nothing to take the flats back for free. A more likely scenario will be to offer SERS when the flats are between 20 to 30 years.

If you PAP MP comes round with a proposal to SERS your 79 year old HDB flat for 100k, you should politely tell him to go ....

Some simple maths ... $100,000/(20 * 12)=$416. If you go into the rental market today, can you find a fully furnished HDB flats for $416? Assuming you rented the unit out at a low rate of $1,200 per month, you would collect $1,200 * 20 *12 = $288,000 over 20 years.

This simple calculation shows that the PAP loses money if they have to pay $400k to $500k for SERS. They can however expect to profit handsomely if they can force the SERS price for 20/30yr old units down to $50k - $100k.

I think its not accurate what you say about all HDB flats getting SERS. Within the HDB tenancy agreement that it signs with the flat dweller, there is a mechanism for the HDB to take back your flat by dissolving the 99 lease. They have triggered this many times before in the past for older estates like Queenstown. Those flat dwellers also signed a 99 years lease, and well, they are not there anymore. Their blocks have been torn down and new higher density blocks have been put up in their place. These people did not get any monetary gains from SERS at all when they were kicked out, in fact SERS was not even in existence at that time. SERS was a program that was proof of concept and that concept is not working out for the HDB. Instead, these people were relocated to newer estates and compensated with a new flat at below what HDB was charging other people. The downside is that they have to top up their mortgage amount and buy it at the discounted price and start all over again with a mortgage, but they get a new 99 year lease in exchange and more amenities in the new estate then was in Queenstown. So, you did not hear too many complains, not that Shit Times would have reported them anyway.

The PAP will use the above described method to move people out when they need too, and not pay them any SERS money, while at the same time, holding them to a new mortgage and 99 year lease. In theory, a HDB flat will never drop below around $200,000. The reason is a combination of opportunity cost and rental income. Lets say you have only 10 years left on a 99 year HDB lease. Many people will argue that it will be worth close to zero due to the short lease period, But they will be wrong. HDB leases have always been about opportunity costs. You give up your money to buy a flat now and forego investment gains you could have received for this, in exchange for rental stability. So, even with 10 years left on the lease (120 months), you could live in it and not pay $1500 a month in rent to a landlord or conversely, move in with a relative and rent it out for $1500 a month and receive this stream as income for the remaining 10 years. This is worth more then the $50K, or $100k you mentioned. Its calculated at $180K. It could be $200K value with compounding, and this number is I believe a hard floor for HDB flats valuation with 10 years or more left on their lease life.

Now the important thing that no one talks about is that this whole exercise might be moot anyway. The reason is that the flats will not last 99 years. The HDB never had the intention to honour the 99 years lease because these flats will be structurally unsafe way before that. Cheap labour + cheap materials + cheap construction does not equal a 99 year life span for these flats. If the HDB does not already have one, (I would suggest they do one right away), they should have a data base of every single block and the remaining economic and structural left in them. At some point, the older flats will cost more and more in maintenance, and then it will be unsafe for occupation. The HDB will have a plan to replace them as these issues start to crop up. Hence, people will be moved out of their flats into newer ones when it has been identified that their block is not going to hold up much longer. So, when Lawrence Wong says the govt will take back the flats when the lease ends at 99 years is actually not telling the truth. No flats will last that long.

P.S. nice chatting with you again.
 

frenchbriefs

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
While the flat was on the market,she could have opened a brothel cum massage parlour,what is she complaining about?
 

JohnTan

Alfrescian (InfP)
Generous Asset
I think its not accurate what you say about all HDB flats getting SERS. Within the HDB tenancy agreement that it signs with the flat dweller, there is a mechanism for the HDB to take back your flat by dissolving the 99 lease. They have triggered this many times before in the past for older estates like Queenstown. Those flat dwellers also signed a 99 years lease, and well, they are not there anymore. Their blocks have been torn down and new higher density blocks have been put up in their place. These people did not get any monetary gains from SERS at all when they were kicked out, in fact SERS was not even in existence at that time. SERS was a program that was proof of concept and that concept is not working out for the HDB. Instead, these people were relocated to newer estates and compensated with a new flat at below what HDB was charging other people. The downside is that they have to top up their mortgage amount and buy it at the discounted price and start all over again with a mortgage, but they get a new 99 year lease in exchange and more amenities in the new estate then was in Queenstown. So, you did not hear too many complains, not that Shit Times would have reported them anyway.

The PAP will use the above described method to move people out when they need too, and not pay them any SERS money, while at the same time, holding them to a new mortgage and 99 year lease. In theory, a HDB flat will never drop below around $200,000. The reason is a combination of opportunity cost and rental income. Lets say you have only 10 years left on a 99 year HDB lease. Many people will argue that it will be worth close to zero due to the short lease period, But they will be wrong. HDB leases have always been about opportunity costs. You give up your money to buy a flat now and forego investment gains you could have received for this, in exchange for rental stability. So, even with 10 years left on the lease (120 months), you could live in it and not pay $1500 a month in rent to a landlord or conversely, move in with a relative and rent it out for $1500 a month and receive this stream as income for the remaining 10 years. This is worth more then the $50K, or $100k you mentioned. Its calculated at $180K. It could be $200K value with compounding, and this number is I believe a hard floor for HDB flats valuation with 10 years or more left on their lease life.

Now the important thing that no one talks about is that this whole exercise might be moot anyway. The reason is that the flats will not last 99 years. The HDB never had the intention to honour the 99 years lease because these flats will be structurally unsafe way before that. Cheap labour + cheap materials + cheap construction does not equal a 99 year life span for these flats. If the HDB does not already have one, (I would suggest they do one right away), they should have a data base of every single block and the remaining economic and structural left in them. At some point, the older flats will cost more and more in maintenance, and then it will be unsafe for occupation. The HDB will have a plan to replace them as these issues start to crop up. Hence, people will be moved out of their flats into newer ones when it has been identified that their block is not going to hold up much longer. So, when Lawrence Wong says the govt will take back the flats when the lease ends at 99 years is actually not telling the truth. No flats will last that long.

P.S. nice chatting with you again.

I think you are overreacting, just like the general public.

The 99 year lease was made known up front in a prominent manner. So any buyer, be it for BTO or resale, knows that it is a 99 year lease. If they choose to misinterpret what a 99 year lease means, it is their fault.

The first set of mass HDB flats to be have their lease run out will happen in about 30-40 years time, not next week, not in the next 2-3 years. Anything can happen during that time. Most of the occupants wouldn't be around anymore. So, don't make a mountain out of a molehill.
 

frenchbriefs

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
I'm curious this recent development caused a scare in the hdb resale market,so where did all the money flow to instead?condo showrooms?
I think you are overreacting, just like the general public.

The 99 year lease was made known up front in a prominent manner. So any buyer, be it for BTO or resale, knows that it is a 99 year lease. If they choose to misinterpret what a 99 year lease means, it is their fault.

The first set of mass HDB flats to be have their lease run out will happen in about 30-40 years time, not next week, not in the next 2-3 years. Anything can happen during that time. Most of the occupants wouldn't be around anymore. So, don't make a mountain out of a molehill.

Even if the 99 year lease was made known upfront,nobody understood what it's financial implications meant,clearly u didn't nor our ministers.
 

JohnTan

Alfrescian (InfP)
Generous Asset
I'm curious this recent development caused a scare in the hdb resale market,so where did all the money flow to instead?condo showrooms?


Even if the 99 year lease was made known upfront,nobody understood what it's financial implications meant,clearly u didn't nor our ministers.

The shit will hit the fan in 30-40 years time. So what seems to be the issue now?
 

Truth_Hurts

Alfrescian
Loyal
I'm curious this recent development caused a scare in the hdb resale market,so where did all the money flow to instead?condo showrooms?


Even if the 99 year lease was made known upfront,nobody understood what it's financial implications meant,clearly u didn't nor our ministers.
What about those 99 year condos? Getting more n more...but I think those buyers know the limitations unlike HDB buyers
 

nayr69sg

Super Moderator
Staff member
SuperMod
What about those 99 year condos? Getting more n more...but I think those buyers know the limitations unlike HDB buyers
No they dont.

Papsmearer will say 99 year condos different from 99 year HDB flat. Lease will always be renewed. And can always sell en bloc

Ask papsmearer
 

eatshitndie

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
I think its not accurate what you say about all HDB flats getting SERS. Within the HDB tenancy agreement that it signs with the flat dweller, there is a mechanism for the HDB to take back your flat by dissolving the 99 lease. They have triggered this many times before in the past for older estates like Queenstown. Those flat dwellers also signed a 99 years lease, and well, they are not there anymore. Their blocks have been torn down and new higher density blocks have been put up in their place. These people did not get any monetary gains from SERS at all when they were kicked out, in fact SERS was not even in existence at that time. SERS was a program that was proof of concept and that concept is not working out for the HDB. Instead, these people were relocated to newer estates and compensated with a new flat at below what HDB was charging other people. The downside is that they have to top up their mortgage amount and buy it at the discounted price and start all over again with a mortgage, but they get a new 99 year lease in exchange and more amenities in the new estate then was in Queenstown. So, you did not hear too many complains, not that Shit Times would have reported them anyway.

The PAP will use the above described method to move people out when they need too, and not pay them any SERS money, while at the same time, holding them to a new mortgage and 99 year lease. In theory, a HDB flat will never drop below around $200,000. The reason is a combination of opportunity cost and rental income. Lets say you have only 10 years left on a 99 year HDB lease. Many people will argue that it will be worth close to zero due to the short lease period, But they will be wrong. HDB leases have always been about opportunity costs. You give up your money to buy a flat now and forego investment gains you could have received for this, in exchange for rental stability. So, even with 10 years left on the lease (120 months), you could live in it and not pay $1500 a month in rent to a landlord or conversely, move in with a relative and rent it out for $1500 a month and receive this stream as income for the remaining 10 years. This is worth more then the $50K, or $100k you mentioned. Its calculated at $180K. It could be $200K value with compounding, and this number is I believe a hard floor for HDB flats valuation with 10 years or more left on their lease life.

Now the important thing that no one talks about is that this whole exercise might be moot anyway. The reason is that the flats will not last 99 years. The HDB never had the intention to honour the 99 years lease because these flats will be structurally unsafe way before that. Cheap labour + cheap materials + cheap construction does not equal a 99 year life span for these flats. If the HDB does not already have one, (I would suggest they do one right away), they should have a data base of every single block and the remaining economic and structural left in them. At some point, the older flats will cost more and more in maintenance, and then it will be unsafe for occupation. The HDB will have a plan to replace them as these issues start to crop up. Hence, people will be moved out of their flats into newer ones when it has been identified that their block is not going to hold up much longer. So, when Lawrence Wong says the govt will take back the flats when the lease ends at 99 years is actually not telling the truth. No flats will last that long.

P.S. nice chatting with you again.
the (end of life) age of hdb flats is roughly built into the cpf-payment formula. they’re all in the numbers. at 55 years of lease left, only 55% of cpf can be used to finance the flat. after 69 years of lease (actually 70 but 69 is such a favorite sinkie number it’s hard to miss) nothing from cpf can be used for financing. so there, they have admitted in policy right from the start - end of life of flat (and or block or estate) is essentially 69 years from start of 99-year lease. when it cums to hdb, sinkies have to remember 2 numbers: 45 and 69. before hitting 45 where the 55% cpf rule applies, lessees who also own private condos or have alternate housing must be prepared to sell their hdb flats when market conditions are favorable (best rule is 35 years or 10 years prior to 11th-hour number of 45). when a lessee has no alternate housing or private property on the side and reaches 45 years of lease, may as well forget selling it and either live in it until kingdom cum or sublet it out and earn some rental incum.
 

eatshitndie

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Papsmearer will say it is a CERTAINTY. I beg to differ.
for private condos with 99-year leases, it’s very different from hdb but en-bloc possibilities depend on strata title, majority sellers or strata title holders willing to sell, location, and appetite of developers and buyers. choice condo locations will receive multiple high bids and will reap windfalls for owners who buy in over 30 years ago. after much of bid and development dollars are exhausted on choice locations, demand will dwindle and those on the fringe will receive lower bids and disappearing development interest, unless the market is opened wide with few limitations, zero to negligible stamp duties and or tax on foreign buyers. gov has many tools and mechanisms to prop it up or shut it down.
 

nayr69sg

Super Moderator
Staff member
SuperMod
After everywhere enbloc......can these new developments en bloc again?

How high are the buildings gonna be in Singapore?
 

eatshitndie

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
After everywhere enbloc......can these new developments en bloc again?

How high are the buildings gonna be in Singapore?
can, if majority owners agree to it (again) when offers are many times what they pay. for freehold titled condos, offers have to be in the stratasphere, oops i mean stratosphere.
 

batman1

Alfrescian
Loyal
The 70% voted for it and they are very happy about it.
They don't mind sleeping in ECP or under the highway.
So don't whine and grumble about it .
 

Papsmearer

Alfrescian (InfP) - Comp
Generous Asset
the (end of life) age of hdb flats is roughly built into the cpf-payment formula. they’re all in the numbers. at 55 years of lease left, only 55% of cpf can be used to finance the flat. after 69 years of lease (actually 70 but 69 is such a favorite sinkie number it’s hard to miss) nothing from cpf can be used for financing. so there, they have admitted in policy right from the start - end of life of flat (and or block or estate) is essentially 69 years from start of 99-year lease. when it cums to hdb, sinkies have to remember 2 numbers: 45 and 69. before hitting 45 where the 55% cpf rule applies, lessees who also own private condos or have alternate housing must be prepared to sell their hdb flats when market conditions are favorable (best rule is 35 years or 10 years prior to 11th-hour number of 45). when a lessee has no alternate housing or private property on the side and reaches 45 years of lease, may as well forget selling it and either live in it until kingdom cum or sublet it out and earn some rental incum.

U are talking about the use of CPF money to buy flats. For some people, they will end before 70 years age of the flat because of the rule of 80. The HDB rules stipulate that if your age plus the remaining lease of the flat is less then 80, you cannot use CPF at all. For example, if the flat is only 55 years old (44 years remaining on the lease) and your age is 30, then the combined number is 74, which is less then the 80. SO, you cannot use CPF even though its less then the 70 u mentioned above. By removing this group of potential buyers, the value of these older flats are further impacted. Only people who have the cash and do not need a bank loan can buy one. As I have mentioned, even if there is 10 years left on the lease, you might get $200K if you sell it, especially if its a larger flat.
 
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