MBT will win 70% votes in Tampines...

[Goh Meng Seng]

so say a YPAP member. Why? Masagos is very popular and he has overwhelming support from the Malay community there. I believe they also have poll data to back up their claims as well.

In all probability, for NSP to win Tampines is really an uphill task, requiring a 20% vote swing against PAP. I have not seen any GRC effecting a 20% vote swing before in Singapore's electoral history.

The best vote swing in a GRC in recent history is about 11%, from 33% in 1997 (SDP) to 43.9% in 2006, Aljunied GRC.

So for Tampines to effect a vote swing of 20%, from 31% (2006) to 51% in 2010, it is almost unimaginable. But nevertheless, I will have to do my best.

But for the estimation of 70% favorable votes for PAP in Tampines, that is really a bold estimation. Well, you know they predicted over 80% win for PAP in AMK GRC last elections but it turns out to be 66%. In all fairness, if we are talking about a possible 5% vote swing against PAP, Tampines should have about 36% for NSP, leaving PAP with 64%.

So for those who ask me what is my aim in Tampines, I would say, any percentage above 36% will be reasonable.

Goh Meng Seng

 

[po2wq]

MBT will win 70% votes in Tampines... ...

要打过才知道 ... :o

 

[Sideswipe]

so say a YPAP member. Why? Masagos is very popular and he has overwhelming support from the Malay community there. I believe they also have poll data to back up their claims as well.

you got do any scientific or trustable opinion polls yet.
what is the racial mix in Tampines?

 

[Ramseth]

what is the racial mix in Tampines?

That depends on how the boundary is redrawn comes next election.

 

[kojakbt]

so say a YPAP member. Why? Masagos is very popular and he has overwhelming support from the Malay community there. I believe they also have poll data to back up their claims as well.

Meng Seng, Malik's arrest have caused PAP some problems. Perhaps NSP should stand up and say something. If you guys are coming up with a press release on this matter, do email me.... [email protected]

I'll help to spread...

 

[Rogue Trader]

why are you so hung up over a prediction a Ypap member has made?

Believe in the work you've done.

 

[Velma]

GMS,

why did you choose Tampines GRC exclusively and not others?

 

[Ramseth]

Travelling in a fried-out combie, on a hippie trail head full of zombie. <!-- / sig -->

Traveling in a fried-out combie
On a hippie trail, head full of zombie
I met a strange lady, she made me nervous
She took me in and gave me breakfast

And she said, "Do you come from a land down under?
Where women glow and men plunder?
Can't you hear, can't you hear the thunder?
You better run, you better take cover."

 

[Velma]

Traveling in a fried-out combie
On a hippie trail, head full of zombie
I met a strange lady, she made me nervous
She took me in and gave me breakfast

And she said, "Do you come from a land down under?
Where women glow and men plunder?
Can't you hear, can't you hear the thunder?
You better run, you better take cover."

Buying bread from a men in Brussels,
He was six-foot tall and full of muscles
I say "Do you speak a-my language?"
He just smiled and gave me a vegemite sandwich.

And he said "Do you come from a land down under?"
Where beers flow and men chunder?
Can't you hear, can't you hear the thunder?
You better run, you better take cover."


You went and listen to this song after seeing my signature?

 

[Ramseth]

You went and listen to this song after seeing my signature?

I know this song since it was first released in 1983. Down Under 4 weeks number 1 on Billboard singles, Business As Usual 15 weeks number 1 on Billboard albums. Men At Work, Colin Hay et al.

 

[Glaringly]

I like to know whether is there a population census data available for each constituency, before any re-drawing?

Otherwise, what method does alternative party use to gauge the ground? Poll or any other methods?

 

[Ramseth]

I like to know whether is there a population census data available for each constituency, before any re-drawing?

Otherwise, what method does alternative party use to gauge the ground? Poll or any other methods?

There is a census exercise once every ten years, usually in the years ending -0, i.e. 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000 and yes, this year 2010. In between however, the government knows to certain extent who lives where and how many lives where, especially after computerisation, HDB racial quota, NRIC address reporting and records. As for opposition, go figure out yourselves in the meantime. After election date is called, opposition can buy the updated electoral rolls and maps.

 

[scroobal]

Not sure the purpose of this post. One possibility is to slow down the PAP build by giving them an aura of confidence. Knowing you, you do not hedge bets. If you are looking for some insights by floating trial balloons, here are some;

The Malay vote is the same across the island. It has been stage managed from the very start by putting down the building blocks of HDB race quotas and the GRC. The Malay community has been crippled by the provision and management of excellent mosques, grants and other facilities. It was done along the lines of national security but it also falls neatly in PAP's lap. You are better of addressing Malays liberal lines and the younger ones will listen. Do not use your Malay chap as a model or as leader for the community in Tampines. He just needs to project himself as a concerned Muslim and a politician at large.

Masagoes is not well like. He is the only one. PKMS is a joke and there is nothing in between. If get AlfiaSaat, then we are talking. Alfian did give Masagoes immediately after the last GE.

PAP will be lucky if they can get away with 50% if any of the main parties take it on with their best teams. Thats includes WP, RP & NSP. MBT is the issue and that is the reason why you went in.

But for the estimation of 70% favorable votes for PAP in Tampines, that is really a bold estimation. Well, you know they predicted over 80% win for PAP in AMK GRC last elections but it turns out to be 66%. In all fairness, if we are talking about a possible 5% vote swing against PAP, Tampines should have about 36% for NSP, leaving PAP with 64%.

So for those who ask me what is my aim in Tampines, I would say, any percentage above 36% will be reasonable.

Goh Meng Seng

 

[aurvandil]

Not sure the purpose of this post. One possibility is to slow down the PAP build by giving them an aura of confidence. Knowing you, you do not hedge bets. If you are looking for some insights by floating trial balloons, here are some;

It is obvious that Tampines is a smokescreen. There is no reason why Goh Meng Seng would want to contest in such a PAP stronghold.

Of all of the issues he has raised, housing and transport are the two strongest.

Why would he attack transport if Raymond Lim was in Bedok, another PAP stronghold?

Somewhat coincidentally, there is a GRC with a MOS for housing AND a MOS for transport. This GRC has an extremely faourable demographiic. My hypothesis is that this GRC is his true target.

 

[Ramseth]

It is obvious that Tampines is a smokescreen. There is no reason why Goh Meng Seng would want to contest in such a PAP stronghold.

Of all of the issues he has raised, housing and transport are the two strongest.

Why would he attack transport if Raymond Lim was in Bedok, another PAP stronghold?

Somewhat coincidentally, there is a GRC with a MOS for housing AND a MOS for transport. This GRC has an extremely faourable demographiic. My hypothesis is that this GRC is his true target.

Tampines is not a PAP stronghold. It has never returned oustanding winning figures. However, there's nothing confirmed about who contesting where until nomination day. This applies to both PAP and opposition.

That said, minister-specific strategies on public issues like housing and transport will yield better results regardless of where's contested, since these are nationwide issues, regardless the voters live in Tampines or East Coast or West Coast. GMS perhaps have miscoined the term. Minister-specific sounds personal. It should be policy-specific.

 

[Kunoichi]

<object width="115" height="134">
<embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/fBpyichRWo0?fs=1&hl=en_US&rel=0" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="115" height="134"></object>

Jump down the shelters to get away
The boys are cockin' up their guns
Tell us general, is it party time?
If it is can we all come

Don't think that we don't know
Don't think that we're not trying
Don't think we move too slow
It's no use after crying
Saying

It's a mistake, it's a mistake
It's a mistake, it's a mistake

 

[wrcboi]

if any opposition (unless hes mentally ill or insane) fail to win any contesting election...then sporns are indeed very daft

 

[Ramseth]

Jump down the shelters to get away
The boys are cockin' up their guns
Tell us general, is it party time?
If it is can we all come

Don't think that we don't know
Don't think that we're not trying
Don't think we move too slow
It's no use after crying
Saying

It's a mistake, it's a mistake
It's a mistake, it's a mistake

You also so old enough to know this song.

 

[Kunoichi]

You also so old enough to know this song.

Well YouTube has lots of 60s, 70s, 80s, 90s music and MVs. It's never too late for those born after 2000 to check them out.

 

[Ramseth]

Well YouTube has lots of 60s, 70s, 80s, 90s music and MVs. It's never too late for those born after 2000 to check them out.

Between Elvis Presley and Billy Joel (1955 - 1995), that's the rock era.

Whatever before were croonish and whatever after are rubbish.