Casino gambling fall in here!!!

[sohbuckkong]

Suppose you are playing and you observe

(a) P P P P P P

For the next hand, is the probability of getting a P

1) More likely because we are having a "P-Dragon"
2) Remain the same
3) Less likely because B is going to emerge to "slay" the "P-Dragon"

On the above question, its very obvious that most people will take "remain the same" as the answer.

However , one has to acknowledge that "the law of average" and "the law of probabilities" until today are still filled with mysteries.

Looking at the above question, we know that if we toss a coin, than the chances of landing head or tail is a 50% 50% chance. But we also know that supposing that head have already landed continuously 20 times, then all of us will intuitively say that on the next round, the chances of landing tail is greater. And so when we have more heads, then we say that the chances of landing tail will increase too.

But if u ask mathematicians, they will tell you that the chances of falling head or tail remains at 50% 50% irregardless of the past statistics. However, in practical, all of us know that it is almost impossible to see a streak of 40 bankers, 40 players,40 heads or 40 tails..... etc. This raise a question why cant we see a streak of 40 bankers and we know that its very common to see a streak of 10 bankers or 10 players. So man are still far away from knowing the laws of nature.

 

[Steve111]

On the above question, its very obvious that most people will take "remain the same" as the answer.

However , one has to acknowledge that "the law of average" and "the law of probabilities" until today are still filled with mysteries.

Looking at the above question, we know that if we toss a coin, than the chances of landing head or tail is a 50% 50% chance. But we also know that supposing that head have already landed continuously 20 times, then all of us will intuitively say that on the next round, the chances of landing tail is greater. And so when we have more heads, then we say that the chances of landing tail will increase too.

But if u ask mathematicians, they will tell you that the chances of falling head or tail remains at 50% 50% irregardless of the past statistics. However, in practical, all of us know that it is almost impossible to see a streak of 40 bankers, 40 players,40 heads or 40 tails..... etc. This raise a question why cant we see a streak of 40 bankers and we know that its very common to see a streak of 10 bankers or 10 players. So man are still far away from knowing the laws of nature.

Let's use the simple coin tossing to illustrate this-->
probablility of 10 "head" in a roll = 1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2 (do this 10 times) = 1/1024

probablility of 40 "heads" in a roll = 1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2 (do this 40 times) = 1/1099511627776

Try this long enough and you will get it!!

 

[Steve111]

Simple but u need to do a bit of homework and patient.
U need to know number in each sector. but after playing a few round, u will automatically remember.
I record sector, colour , even/odd, big/small and jump in number between turn, then do study for every 10 round. For instance, sector V is not out until round 9, die die must bet V sector in round 10. So u must wait for the chance. Every 10 round, u can get about 3 to 4 chances either from sector or others. Dont underestimate the row and column, just closed eye and bet on fix row and col can make you win but need to choose the right one from the record.
RWS tables are easier than MBS as it more random. In MBS, the rule is to follow the trend.
Sorry if i canot explain well.
I enjoy playing Texas poker, until now never win before. I lost mostly in Bonus. Should i bet bonus? Please advise..

Read this link with open mind, see if you still think the same way after reading and understanding it. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

 

[mark lee]

My Blackjack strategy .... hopefully my experience can help those trying their luck. I have paid my tuition fees (quite a lot) and my luck is starting to turn for the better based on observations and experience.

BUT ... this is not 100% sure win, just play for fun and try to win. Still can lose one, so play responsibly and play within your means. If you borrow money to gamble you sure lose one. So play with own money.

This is what I notice so far ....

1. When dealer's card is good for three four rounds continuously, RUN. Means if dealer keep getting Picture or 9 or Ace for first card and you get 4,5,6 for first card, chances of you losing is damn high. RUN and change table. If dealer keep getting 4,5,6 then his card is bad and you get Picture then mostly your cards is going to do well.

2. If dealer gets 3,4,5,6,7 and 14,15,16 then go on to get 21 a few times, you RUN. If he keeps busting, then YOUR card is good.

3. If dealer card for few rounds is good and gets Ace as first card, buy insurance. If dealer card is bad, no need to buy insurance.

4. When dealer first card is bad for a few rounds, you increase you bet. This is where you win more. This is the same as PPPPP or BBBBB in Baccarat. I notice there are waves of losing and waves of winning for dealer. Bet more when you are riding the high tide and cut when tide goes against you.

5. Pictures always run together and the same for small cards also. If you see the last few cards is picture, then you get 12,13,14, tendency is you will bust when you hit. When small cards come and if you get 12,13,14 and dealer get picture, you let him take the small cards, he will most likely to bust. Some people happy to take 4 or 5 or 6 when they have 12,13,14 ... but if you leave it to the dealer with Picture as first card, he will be more likely to bust!

6. When dealer cards turn from bad to good, you run. Thats why the very experienced gamblers can sense it very quickly and all can run at the same time. No point trying to chiong and be HERO and prove you can outdo the dealer. I find this thinking very stupid and foolish. You will lose very fast. Then WORST,some will go ATM and draw somemore hard earn money and come back to the SAME table to bang their head against their dealer. You sure die #@!%standing one like that.

Remember, win already run. Few hundred dollars also considered win if you start with 1k. Don't try to aim for a few thousand winning unless you start with 10k in the pocket. If you start with 50k in pocket, then got 5k or 10k win is good, but thats because you have to bet 1-2k at one go. IF you bet $25 or $50, you know you have to win how many hands to win 5k???

But gambling in casino must be fun. Cannot treat it like full time or part time job. If you in hurry or got limited time, don't gamble.

This is my guide, just share share only with everyone. Hopefully the tuition fees I paid to casino can benefit more people.

And may the God of Fortune por pee you when you gamble

 

[sohbuckkong]

Let's use the simple coin tossing to illustrate this-->
probablility of 10 "head" in a roll = 1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2 (do this 10 times) = 1/1024

probablility of 40 "heads" in a roll = 1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2 (do this 40 times) = 1/1099511627776

Try this long enough and you will get it!!

I understand what you mean but the question asked by aurvandil was, "Suppose you are playing and you observe
(a) P P P P P P
For the next hand, (what) is the probability of getting a P"

As I had told him previously that the obvious answer was that its going to be a 50% 50% chance.

 

[sohbuckkong]

Im sorry to say that your belief below are all rubbish because you are suggesting that the cards or points will behave in a certain manner and thats totally untrue. This is a game of chance and whatever is going to come out is all random, and absolutely unknown.

Wrong belief can be fatal.

My Blackjack strategy .... hopefully my experience can help those trying their luck. I have paid my tuition fees (quite a lot) and my luck is starting to turn for the better based on observations and experience.

BUT ... this is not 100% sure win, just play for fun and try to win. Still can lose one, so play responsibly and play within your means. If you borrow money to gamble you sure lose one. So play with own money.

This is what I notice so far ....

1. When dealer's card is good for three four rounds continuously, RUN. Means if dealer keep getting Picture or 9 or Ace for first card and you get 4,5,6 for first card, chances of you losing is damn high. RUN and change table. If dealer keep getting 4,5,6 then his card is bad and you get Picture then mostly your cards is going to do well.

2. If dealer gets 3,4,5,6,7 and 14,15,16 then go on to get 21 a few times, you RUN. If he keeps busting, then YOUR card is good.

3. If dealer card for few rounds is good and gets Ace as first card, buy insurance. If dealer card is bad, no need to buy insurance.

4. When dealer first card is bad for a few rounds, you increase you bet. This is where you win more. This is the same as PPPPP or BBBBB in Baccarat. I notice there are waves of losing and waves of winning for dealer. Bet more when you are riding the high tide and cut when tide goes against you.

5. Pictures always run together and the same for small cards also. If you see the last few cards is picture, then you get 12,13,14, tendency is you will bust when you hit. When small cards come and if you get 12,13,14 and dealer get picture, you let him take the small cards, he will most likely to bust. Some people happy to take 4 or 5 or 6 when they have 12,13,14 ... but if you leave it to the dealer with Picture as first card, he will be more likely to bust!

6. When dealer cards turn from bad to good, you run. Thats why the very experienced gamblers can sense it very quickly and all can run at the same time. No point trying to chiong and be HERO and prove you can outdo the dealer. I find this thinking very stupid and foolish. You will lose very fast. Then WORST,some will go ATM and draw somemore hard earn money and come back to the SAME table to bang their head against their dealer. You sure die #@!%standing one like that.

Remember, win already run. Few hundred dollars also considered win if you start with 1k. Don't try to aim for a few thousand winning unless you start with 10k in the pocket. If you start with 50k in pocket, then got 5k or 10k win is good, but thats because you have to bet 1-2k at one go. IF you bet $25 or $50, you know you have to win how many hands to win 5k???

But gambling in casino must be fun. Cannot treat it like full time or part time job. If you in hurry or got limited time, don't gamble.

This is my guide, just share share only with everyone. Hopefully the tuition fees I paid to casino can benefit more people.

And may the God of Fortune por pee you when you gamble

 

[silverfox@]

I understand what you mean but the question asked by aurvandil was, "Suppose you are playing and you observe
(a) P P P P P P
For the next hand, (what) is the probability of getting a P"

As I had told him previously that the obvious answer was that its going to be a 50% 50% chance.

Actually if the streak is P P P P P P and the probability of getting a P is actually lower than

if the streak is B B B B B B and the probability of getting a B next. :p

 

[sohbuckkong]

Actually if the streak is P P P P P P and the probability of getting a P is actually lower than

if the streak is B B B B B B and the probability of getting a B next. :p

You are absolutely right because banker have an advantage over player.

 

[Robert Half]

Suppose you are playing and you observe

(a) P P P P P P

For the next hand, is the probability of getting a P

1) More likely because we are having a "P-Dragon"
2) Remain the same
3) Less likely because B is going to emerge to "slay" the "P-Dragon"

If I am winning on the 6 P in a row and probably 1) I will bet on P on my next hand (if scare that reduce amount bet) I will follow P until the run end

 

[Robert Half]

Actually if the streak is P P P P P P and the probability of getting a P is actually lower than

if the streak is B B B B B B and the probability of getting a B next. :p

I agree.. esp in Non-Commission Baccarat BANKER dragon can run more than 10 times in a row. BANKER getting a 6 points as good as 90% win

 

[aurvandil]

If I am winning on the 6 P in a row and probably 1) I will bet on P on my next hand (if scare that reduce amount bet) I will follow P until the run end

Nothing wrong with that as long as you know that the probability of getting a P remains unchanged.

 

[aurvandil]

I agree.. esp in Non-Commission Baccarat BANKER dragon can run more than 10 times in a row. BANKER getting a 6 points as good as 90% win

The probability of getting a B in non-comission baccarat and comission baccarat is the same.

The difference is deducation however results in very different odds.

If you play comission baccarat, the 5% comission translates to a house edge of 1.06%.

If you play non-comission using the rules published in the CRA documents, the half payment for B6 gives a house edge of 1.46%.

For both versions, the house edge for player is 1.24%.

Hence for comission baccarat, the optimium "dragon" chasing strategy is go for B dragons.

For non-comission baccarat, the optiimium "dragon" chasing strategy is to go for P dragons.

Here it should be noted if you go "dragon" chasing, you will actually do better than if you were to bet every hand. This is because most players that chase "dragon" will have some sort of rule to identify potential dragons e.g. observe PPP before betting P.

By waiting for a "dragon" to form, you slow down your rate of play.

Since you play less when you chase "dragon", you lose less ... giving the illusion that "dragon" chasing can somehow allow you to beat baccarat. It can't but it can make the game more fun since it is always very exciting to be part of a table that is winning large sums against the dealer.

 

[breakingfree]

Good day!!! just wan to share my experience abt baccarat

For those who wans to be a good gambler, pls visit wizardofodds website. This a very very good website. Bottomline of what this website is trying to say: NO SYSTEM can win casino CONSISTENTLY. It even issue a million dollars challenge to those who claim that can beat a casino consistently if i remember correctly.

After my own funny analysis and research, running through hundreds of shoes using different system and betting method, i have come to a final conclusion: Any tom dick and harry system can beat casino!!!............................................................................................but not consistently

Gamblers failed in casino due to they are fixated in using 1 system throughout the trip. Example a dragon chaser will win in a dragon trend but not for other trend. A ding dong better will die in a dragon trend.

To overcome this and win in casino consistently, u only will need to do 2 things: IDENTIFY the table that are suitable for ur system/style. SENSE any trend reversal on the table and run.

Imho, this 2 things will be the bread and butter of any good gambler but will also be the hardest to learn. Any suggestion and share of knowledge to learn this 2 things will be welcome. Thks!!!

 

[aurvandil]

Gamblers failed in casino due to they are fixated in using 1 system throughout the trip. Example a dragon chaser will win in a dragon trend but not for other trend. A ding dong better will die in a dragon trend.

To overcome this and win in casino consistently, u only will need to do 2 things: IDENTIFY the table that are suitable for ur system/style. SENSE any trend reversal on the table and run.

How do you determine if you should use the "dragon chaser" stance or the "ding dong" stance?

 

[silverfox@]

Why Baccarat play must bet on thrends?
No thrends, no scoreboard, no paper and pencil cannot bet already?

If betting on thrends can make money, why would casinos put paper and pencil and even show the scoreboard thrend for baccarat? It is to induce people to play by thrends because casinos know once people play by thrends on baccarat, they will kill.

Baccarat is a game plying on human emotions and psychology. They offer Player and Banker. You either bet on Player or Banker. If placing a bet on either side and a TIE comes out, you don't lose your bet. So to many people they will see it as a 50-50 situation. Next is the payout. Banker need to pay commission, Player full 1:1 payment. That is why there are people who prefers buying PLAYER only because this is what the casinos want you to do. They want people to bet on Player.

Actually every system how good also no use if there is no money management. If one is losing and he continues playing, or if he is winning and he continues playing till he loses his profit, it doesn't prove his system is no good. It just shows that he has no discipline when he is gambling.

Many websites can relate the winning percentages, the house edges, how casinos win, even if you have a winning system, you do not leave the table when you are losing, you will eventually end up losing so much more than what you could have won in 10 sessions.

If i place a bet at $300, I lose 5 bets, I leave the casino. That will mean I lose $1500. If I win, I continue playing even on winning streaks, till my winning streak is snapped. The moment that happens, I leave the casino.

So if losing is x and winning is y
you will only lose 5x but your winning is always y infinity.

Most people lose because they never want to leave the casino a loser but they do not realise that leaving the casino a loser is better than leaving the casino a BIG loser. The casinos are always there. There is no need to fight for any achievement, any winning day streaks, or tell yourself you must leave the casino a winner. You are a winner when you accept you lose and come back another day instead. If you can't accept it and keep wanting to fight back what you lost, you belong to the group which casinos loves most.

 

[breakingfree]

Why Baccarat play must bet on thrends?
No thrends, no scoreboard, no paper and pencil cannot bet already?

If betting on thrends can make money, why would casinos put paper and pencil and even show the scoreboard thrend for baccarat? It is to induce people to play by thrends because casinos know once people play by thrends on baccarat, they will kill.

Ermm bro, think u misunderstood my post. What i am trying to say is that whatever method a person used to play( flat bet, double up, trend, anti trend, only player, only banker, alternate, 1-3-2-6 betting or any fancy system/betting method u can think off etc etc) will let u win a few shoe if u are lucky but not in the long run. Cos the satistics will kill u.

All those websites or old bird who claim they have the best sure win system are bullshit..cos there are none. The key point in beating casino is not having a sure win system, imho the key point is identify the table best suited for ur betting method/style and run if u sense that the outcome of the table results does not suit ur method. Every table will have a certain window of outcome which will give positive result basd on ANY of your method. It is up to the experience or luck for the guy to identifiy the chance. And money mangement is a given if u wan to be a good gambler of course as u highlited.

 

[Steve111]

To overcome this and win in casino consistently, u only will need to do 2 things: IDENTIFY the table that are suitable for ur system/style. SENSE any trend reversal on the table and run.

After reading so much, yet you concluded that you can SENSE trend reversal. Please elaborate how you can do that.

 

[breakingfree]

After reading so much, yet you concluded that you can SENSE trend reversal. Please elaborate how you can do that.

Sorry i cant. I am just stating that to have a consistent winning, the ability to identify the correct table best suit ur method and finding a way to sense/counter the trend reversal by cutting lost are vital.

Cos i notice majority of the gambler mindset are fixated in using a so call system(dragon, anti dragon blah blah) to try and beat the casino. 99.9% the shoe that the gambler lose in are not matched with his betting method.

I am just trying to offer another mindset which instead of finding a sure win system, he might discover that finding ways to identify the correct table/window to bet and counter the trend reversal will be much fruitful.

Thats why i am welcoming any suggestions or ideas/leads on how to do that so that i can continue my own useless research.

 

[Steve111]

Sorry i cant. I am just stating that to have a consistent winning, the ability to identify the correct table best suit ur method and finding a way to sense/counter the trend reversal by cutting lost are vital.

Cos i notice majority of the gambler mindset are fixated in using a so call system(dragon, anti dragon blah blah) to try and beat the casino. 99.9% the shoe that the gambler lose in are not matched with his betting method.

I am just trying to offer another mindset which instead of finding a sure win system, he might discover that finding ways to identify the correct table/window to bet and counter the trend reversal will be much fruitful.

Thats why i am welcoming any suggestions or ideas/leads on how to do that so that i can continue my own useless research.

Don't waste time, because you can't. The only way is counting cards in blackjack with manual shuffler which is not offered in Singapore's casinos. So practically every hand you bet, the house has an advantage over you.

 

[sohbuckkong]

Sorry i cant. I am just stating that to have a consistent winning, the ability to identify the correct table best suit ur method and finding a way to sense/counter the trend reversal by cutting lost are vital.

...........

Most unfortunately, no one can have the ability to identify the correct table thats best suit their playing method.