PE--Hard Core PAP vs Hard Core Opposition-

[Nice-Gook]

Yup,that's what many of you may think.Did we not had enough from all sundries while we are yet to digest the result ?


Hi.Was away overseas for a couple of years and returned some weeks back.Glad to be back home .Anyway,here are my thoughts on this recent PE.

Almost all posters here assume one thing.That , had there been a 1 to 1 fight the result would have been different and that this 4 cornered fight delivered the victory right into the PAP door steps....nah ! .Why?Because everybody's assumption and presumption is that the percentage of votes won is very much and totally dependent on the candidates .....let me rephrase,had Tan Soo Koon(the ex PAP MP and the speaker of the parliament) had stood instead of Tony Tan,would the result be any different?.



The point being almost all analyst are neglecting the mindset of Singapore voters per ce.Rephrased - are Singaporean voters mood up for grabs by persuasion alone in just that 9 to 14 days?....Perhaps so in other countries;- even than the electioneering process and campaigning itself takes months in those countries like US for example. Not in Singapore & Malaysia--the very reason why snap elections are most often held here to benefit the incumbent in power.This is the first critical point to note. The shorter the duration of electioneering campaign the better the chances of incumbent like PAP and UMNO.

Because a large percentage of Singapore voters had already made up their minds---and all it takes is a little push with sweeteners or lollipops if you may.In short,Singapore voters do not want to rock the boat---the very reason why PAP candidates almost always stresses dark clouds are ahead in every electioneering campaign—a subtle message to vote for PAP .This is the second critical point to note.

CONTINUED-1

 

[Nice-Gook]

In short,I am placing the entire burden and the onus on the kinds and varieties of people Singapore already has as voters -which the candidates has to content with......and a study as who these people are will be more productive than who the candidates are .Because I do believe whether if it’s Tony Tan or Tan Soo Koon on PAP platform or Tan Jee Say or Leong Tze Hian on opposition platform the votes thus garnered would be the same.This is the third critical point to note.

So,lets look at the composition of Singaporeans as voters.

Many analysts here and elsewhere draw a border between hard core PAP voters vs hard core opposition voters and the remaining as swing voters.This is where I beg to differ.Yes,there are hard core opposition supporters but are there that much of hard core PAP supporters?Nah!...why?

Because a hard core fighters usually stands behind an ideal....what ideals do PAP supporters uphold except for some perks and lard that are thrown for prostituting themselves?.....Of course,I am not talking about the past PAP era where PAP cadres went to jail willingly for their cause...will any PAP men or woman do it today?......the big difference is that the opposition hard core supporters would most likely do.As demonstrated by the numbers who went to jail willingly and plunge into bankruptcy .This is the fourth critical point to note and an important one.Why?


Because it indicates that while the opposition has a constant hard core supporters to fall on ,PAP do not.PAP merely has mercenaries as their supporters–those who will abandon ship at the first sign of troubles.Why is this an important consideration?

Because time does not favor PAP.With advent of social medias and acive netizenship more and more are drawn to hard core opposition side while PAP does not have much except for their inner circle…Worse,now that Tony Tan is going to Istana with his heavy baggage of his son NS fiasco and others hanging heavy like a dead albatross around his neck.No netizen gonna forget this for the next 6 years.

All in all things are going from bad to worse for PAP.


On the brighter side every aspiring candidates for GE or PE has at least 5 years to work the ground.Because this PE had clearly shown that any opposition candidate who opposes PAP has a 30% hard core supporters to fall on; no more loosing desposit.Whereas PAP has none…..and in 5 years time he or she who opposes PAP has to swing the rest of 60% voters.I mean the same 60% voters whom PAP has to bribe for future votes.

While most see the dark clouds with PAP backed Tony Tan's victory I saw the silver linings.

 

[singveld]

so you are trying to say that if only 2 candidate TT and TCB, then TT will win landslide, because sinkies do not want drastic changes. But since president function do nothing, therefore sinkies do not mind voting for change. So TCB might win landslide instead.

 

[Nice-Gook]

so you are trying to say that if only 2 candidate TT and TCB, then TT will win landslide, because sinkies do not want drastic changes. But since president function do nothing, therefore sinkies do not mind voting for change. So TCB might win landslide instead.

You misunderstood me.notwithstanding you raised a petinent point that challenges my premise.

My basic contention simply is that PAP do not has a sizable hard core voters as opposition does.But because PAP is an incumbent for the last 50 years it has every switch in its control.Thus able to swing the majority swing votes in it's favor.Which brings us to the question of TT vs TCB.

in my view both are the birds of the same feathers who are not flocking together only this instance-PAP brought out TCB factor to suck up all that pent up feeling against PAP---till TJS & TKL popped up.Assuming only TT and TCB fought 1 to 1 not all anti PAP would vote for TCB---the spoil votes would be much higher.So TT would still win as what PAP initially planned.

Which begets the next question how independent TCB really is...ah,this is where the old saying 'that in politics there is no permanent friends and foes'.Why is this pertinent?Because now TCB has tasted blood.He now would have realized he could take on any PAP giant alone...which unwittingly also brought out another worm out of the Pandora box.That is, the divide within PAP runs right across it.This might have shocked the PAP kitchen cabinet and it's inner circle right to the core.

If TCB is not guarded properly by PAP another Ong Eng Guan may rise from his grave.Only that TCB has age against him.

 

[PhuaTeKor]

Likely no 1 to 1 contest, there could only be Andrew Kuan the second. OTC scored only 58.7% of the votes in 1993.

 

[Nice-Gook]

Likely no 1 to 1 contest, there could only be Andrew Kuan the second. OTC scored only 58.7% of the votes in 1993.

Just look at the shift between 1993 to 2011.

PAP backed candidate garnered almost 59% of votes in 1993.
Whereas PAP backed candidate garnered only about 35% of votes in 2011.

Even if there were a multi cornered fight in 1993...OTC would still have garnered only about 59% of the valid votes.

 

[jeesus]

Just look at the shift between 1993 to 2011.

PAP backed candidate garnered almost 59% of votes in 1993.
Whereas PAP backed candidate garnered only about 35% of votes in 2011.

Even if there were a multi cornered fight in 1993...OTC would still have garnered only about 59% of the valid votes.

Whatever happened in 1993 is a bad benchmark. Both candidates then were PAP endorsed, although OTC was the preferred candidate. JBJ wanted to run but was disqualified. If JBJ had run, would we have seen OTC 35%, Chua 34%, JBJ 30%, and would the public been angry with JBJ for running then?