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Football Gambling - Day by Day previews/analysis

ahyong

New Member
Actually I don't like to look at who give ball, who over, who under. By looking at statistics over the past seasons, for home away games, will realise that there is certain percentage more favourable.

Example over/under. So just pick that few teams, every week bet UNDER. End of season, sure win money. The only problem is it defeats the purpose of analysing football.

But most people love the fun and yet lose money. So bring away the fun and can win. So which is the better alternative?

Last season, I did a test on EPL games and buy selective teams on UNDER based on past results. Let's say bet 4 games, if win 3 lose 1, total win 2. if win 2 lose 2, lose a bit commission. If win 1 lose 4, lose 3. If lose, the following week, I increase bet. Sure can fightback. When fought back, just reduce to normal bet again.

That is why I don't see who put who in what kind of teamsheet. I just buy base on statistic play. Even if Arsenal is favoured to pump in 5 goals, I still buy UNDER. Even if Chelsea is favoured to win 2-1, I still buy UNDER. Mentality of punters love to buy OVER. So statistics is a true reflection of how the market moves the results. :p

but most game always over :confused:
 

Nomad

Alfrescian
Loyal
this week,a lot of World Cup 2010 Qualifying matches.
will come in here again to look for 1 or 2 zhun tips.
 

tenggiri

Alfrescian
Loyal
this week,a lot of World Cup 2010 Qualifying matches.
will come in here again to look for 1 or 2 zhun tips.

This kind of one-off qualifier games very unpredictable so i shall keep my bets small. Cheers :smile:


I don't waste time seeing who vs who, just read their teamsheets for fun. Even if Chelsea vs Stoke, I also bet under. because I don't bet according to what my heart says and i play due to a system. That is why if you play with your heart, will lose money in long run. when you play system, week in, week out, wouldn't lose to bookies.

K tks very much bro. The trouble with us punters is always the difficulty in keeping to a disciplined and set way of gambling. But even if we spot a statistical advantage, the bookies have odds to leverage the advantage back to the house. Punters are always playing against the odds. So to make sure we make money, i think become a bookie got more advantage.
 

fishcer

Alfrescian
Loyal
Actually what bro Silverfox is suggesting is one of the methods with which to bet, but pls remember, to actually see profit, u have to adopt the methods on a LONG-TERM basis. There is no quickfire way to win from gambling in the short term. There are many pple out there who do not work, but make a living solely from betting. These full-time gamblers do not expect to win every day/week, but what they do is to win in the long-term.

Using statistics, playing on value bets etc etc do provide profit, but only if u maintain the discipline and only if u have the patience to do this. The problem with most punters is their lack of discipline, or their lack of a real plan when gambling. Most like to see the winnings ASAP, and most pple when they lose wanna win back immediately, or when they win they wanna win more and more. Stay focused, disciplined, maintain the number of bets u make a day/week or keep on the plan/method u want to use, and u should see profit in the end, irregardless of whether the bookmakers have a way of levaraging to get back any advantages.
 

fenwick

Alfrescian
Loyal
K tks very much bro. The trouble with us punters is always the difficulty in keeping to a disciplined and set way of gambling. But even if we spot a statistical advantage, the bookies have odds to leverage the advantage back to the house. Punters are always playing against the odds. So to make sure we make money, i think become a bookie got more advantage.

Agree with what bro tenggiri says!!!:smile:
 

silverfox@

Alfrescian
Loyal
but most game always over :confused:

If you say most game always over, I can guarantee you if you bet EPL every match at OVER 2.25 goal, (i give you a low margin, 2.25 not 2.5) till end of season, you will still lose money.

Check out the statistics. 55% is UNDER:p
 

kelvin

Alfrescian
Loyal
:biggrin:
bro fishcer,

what is your picks for today's World Cup 2010 Qualifying matches ?

:
In terms of value & good returns, I would take Nigeria to beat S/Africa.
As for others, stay clear -- Not worth it.

GOOD LUCK !!!:biggrin:
 

tenggiri

Alfrescian
Loyal
Its EPL night tmr and there's gonna be some interesting games to watch and maybe place a small bet on.

The Big Game = Liverpool v Manchester Utd Benitez's Liverpool has never beaten MU and w/o two of their best players (Gerrard and Torres) tmr, Pool could struggle again. It'll be a tight match but I believe MU should just nick it.
Verdict: Take MU on the level ball market.

Bros, just my 2 cents only. Pls share views. :smile: :cool:
 

tenggiri

Alfrescian
Loyal
Its EPL night tmr and there's gonna be some interesting games to watch and maybe place a small bet on.

The Big Game = Liverpool v Manchester Utd Benitez's Liverpool has never beaten MU and w/o two of their best players (Gerrard and Torres) tmr, Pool could struggle again. It'll be a tight match but I believe MU should just nick it.
Verdict: Take MU on the level ball market.

Bros, just my 2 cents only. Pls share views. :smile: :cool:

Latest news is that Gerrard and Torres are fit and might play! Even tho they may not be 100% match fit, they can still show flashes of brilliance but i ll stick to my prediction anyway. Cheers.
 

The MilkMan

Alfrescian
Loyal
can the match between Liverpool vs Man Utd be another draw match.
looking for one or two zhun matches to tan liao for this weekend.
 

BlueCat

Alfrescian
Loyal
Spurs problems deepened further on Monday as they were beaten 2-1 by Aston Villa to leave them bottom of the Premiership with just a point after four matches.
Spurs manager Juande Ramos maybe the next manager to go.
they have not recovered from the Berbatov's saga.
 

BlueCat

Alfrescian
Loyal
EPL's fixtures for this coming weekend

20 Sept 2008 - Saturday:

Sunderland vs Middlesbrough
Liverpool vs Stoke City (Liverpool to bet the AH)
West Ham United vs Newscastle Utd (West Ham to win)
Blackburn Rovers vs Fulham
Bolton Wanderers vs Arsenal (Arsenal to win 2-0)

21 Sept 08 - Sunday

West Bromwich Albion vs Aston Villa
Chelsea vs Manchester United (Chelsea to win 2-1)
Tottenham Hotspur vs Wigan Athletic
Manchester City vs Portsmouth
Hull City vs Everton

I expected at least 3 matches to end in a DRAW.

Good Luck To All Punters !!!
 

fishcer

Alfrescian
Loyal
Sorry guys, been busy for awhile...anyway, hope evry1 has been winning...shall start all over again... :smile:

Anyway, not much time to do a write-up, will just post for 2nite :

Slavia Prague level ball
Cska Moscow Over

Gd luck all!!! :biggrin:
 

fishcer

Alfrescian
Loyal
German Bundesliga : Vfl Wolfsburg vs Borussia Monchengladbach

Vfl Wolfsburg :

Wolfsburg currently stands 9th in the table, with an overall record of 3W 4D 2L, scoring 20 conceding 16. It is at home where they have been impressive, with 3w 1D 0L, scoring 11 conceding 4. Their away form has been their Achilles heel, as they are still winless, although they did give Bayern Munich a hard fight over the weekend, racing to a 2-0 lead in the 1st half before succumbing to a 4-2 loss.

Under Felix Magath, Wolfsburg has gradually transformed into an overall solid team, with good organization and discipline. They are now perennial contenders for European competition every season, and this season is no difference, as they are still in the UEFA Cup competition, and also well placed in the league to mount a challenge for another Euro place.

Being still unbeaten at home, they look set to carry on their good home form from last season, where they lost only 4 games at home. Their 3 home wins this season have come against Armenia Bielfield, Hamburg and Koln, with the solitary draw against Frankfurt. Perhaps the most impressive win was against high flying Hamburg, as they achieved a dominant 3-0 win.

Borussia Monchengladbach :

Monchengladbach achieved promotion to the Bundesliga this season by virtue of finishing champions of the 2. Liga. Although they impressed in the 2. Liga., it must be said that the playing level between the 1st and 2nd division still has a substantial gap. This season, Borussia has been struggling, as they lie in 17th place, with a poor record of 2W 1D 6L, scoring 9 conceding 17. They are still without a win on their travels, picking up only 1 pt from their 4 away games, scoring 3 and conceding 9 goals.

It seems that Borussia have made the climb up too early, as although they won the 2 Liga, their squad is really finding the climb in level too difficult. Although they have a relatively good squad, Borussia is playing extremely poor. Their fans can only hope that a change in coach will bring better results, and the signs are encouraging, with a 1-0 home win against Karlsruher and a 2-2 away draw against Bochum in their last 2 games.

Away from home, Borussia have suffered defeats against Hamburg, Hannover and Hoffenheim. Not really that bad, as Hamburg and Hoffenheim are in the top half of the table, but rather it was how badly they performed in those games that is the key.

H2H :

In the last 10 yrs, Wolfsburg have played Borussia 8 times at home, with a good record of 6W 0D 2L, scoring 17 conceding 8. Wolfsburg have won the last 3 meetings between the 2 teams at home.

Team News :

Wolfsburg has not much missing players to worry about, with only doubts about 1-2 players. Monchengladbach will be missing a clutch of players, and that will without doubt weaken their chances further for this match.

Conclusion :

Magath has set a UEFA spot for his team to achieve this season, and with the strong performances they have shown so far, Wolfsburg looks set to achieve the target. Their home performances have been strong, and Wolfsburg know that they have to capitalize on this good home form this season to achieve good results.

Although they have been some signs of Monchengladbach improving under their new coach, however both games were not against very strong teams. I have no doubt that they have the chance to escape relegation if they carry on with the improvement, but I feel that this game against Wolfsburg has come too early for them, and perhaps Monchengladbach will be looking to escape with just a narrow loss.

Bet :

Vfl Wolfsburg -1
 

khunking

Alfrescian
Loyal
Wolfsburg conceded four goals while leading 2-0 at Bayern over the weekend. Anyway, good luck and hope that BM doesn't park the bus in front of their goalmouth.

German Bundesliga : Vfl Wolfsburg vs Borussia Monchengladbach

Vfl Wolfsburg :

Wolfsburg currently stands 9th in the table, with an overall record of 3W 4D 2L, scoring 20 conceding 16. It is at home where they have been impressive, with 3w 1D 0L, scoring 11 conceding 4. Their away form has been their Achilles heel, as they are still winless, although they did give Bayern Munich a hard fight over the weekend, racing to a 2-0 lead in the 1st half before succumbing to a 4-2 loss.

Under Felix Magath, Wolfsburg has gradually transformed into an overall solid team, with good organization and discipline. They are now perennial contenders for European competition every season, and this season is no difference, as they are still in the UEFA Cup competition, and also well placed in the league to mount a challenge for another Euro place.

Being still unbeaten at home, they look set to carry on their good home form from last season, where they lost only 4 games at home. Their 3 home wins this season have come against Armenia Bielfield, Hamburg and Koln, with the solitary draw against Frankfurt. Perhaps the most impressive win was against high flying Hamburg, as they achieved a dominant 3-0 win.

Borussia Monchengladbach :

Monchengladbach achieved promotion to the Bundesliga this season by virtue of finishing champions of the 2. Liga. Although they impressed in the 2. Liga., it must be said that the playing level between the 1st and 2nd division still has a substantial gap. This season, Borussia has been struggling, as they lie in 17th place, with a poor record of 2W 1D 6L, scoring 9 conceding 17. They are still without a win on their travels, picking up only 1 pt from their 4 away games, scoring 3 and conceding 9 goals.

It seems that Borussia have made the climb up too early, as although they won the 2 Liga, their squad is really finding the climb in level too difficult. Although they have a relatively good squad, Borussia is playing extremely poor. Their fans can only hope that a change in coach will bring better results, and the signs are encouraging, with a 1-0 home win against Karlsruher and a 2-2 away draw against Bochum in their last 2 games.

Away from home, Borussia have suffered defeats against Hamburg, Hannover and Hoffenheim. Not really that bad, as Hamburg and Hoffenheim are in the top half of the table, but rather it was how badly they performed in those games that is the key.

H2H :

In the last 10 yrs, Wolfsburg have played Borussia 8 times at home, with a good record of 6W 0D 2L, scoring 17 conceding 8. Wolfsburg have won the last 3 meetings between the 2 teams at home.

Team News :

Wolfsburg has not much missing players to worry about, with only doubts about 1-2 players. Monchengladbach will be missing a clutch of players, and that will without doubt weaken their chances further for this match.

Conclusion :

Magath has set a UEFA spot for his team to achieve this season, and with the strong performances they have shown so far, Wolfsburg looks set to achieve the target. Their home performances have been strong, and Wolfsburg know that they have to capitalize on this good home form this season to achieve good results.

Although they have been some signs of Monchengladbach improving under their new coach, however both games were not against very strong teams. I have no doubt that they have the chance to escape relegation if they carry on with the improvement, but I feel that this game against Wolfsburg has come too early for them, and perhaps Monchengladbach will be looking to escape with just a narrow loss.

Bet :

Vfl Wolfsburg -1
 
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