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The bulk of China's medals should as usual be coming from table tennis, badminton, gymnastics and diving. However, I don't think that'd be enough to beat the US to the top the medal tally. China have to get more medals from athletics, swimming and others.
After 3 days of competition, China is leading the tally with 9 gold medals. Though it's still early days, it's surprising, Russia, Germany and France has yet to strike gold.
The table tennis games have just paddled off. Whatever Singaporeans feel about foreign talents, Singapore have realistic chances of not only one medal but two, women's single and women's team.
Of the traditional sporting powers, Germany and Russia have finally opened their gold medal accounts, but France have yet to score their first gold medal. On the overall tally, China is still leading the US, but the real test will come when the athletic events start.
With China leading the US by about double at the moment, it has to depend very much on athletics for the US to overtake China.
If I recall correctly, only two nations have topped the Olympic medal tallies after WW2, the USA and the USSR. I don't think that Russia have topped any Olympic medal tally after the dissolution of the USSR.
Another surprise may Great Britain after the athletics start. It last topped the tally in London 1908 (incidentally exactly one century ago) at the height of the empire, but has only averaged the lower top ten (or sometimes worse) ever since.
After WW2 and during the cold war, there hadn't been any enthusiastic performance except winning a few gold medals to keep an average lower top ten ranking, culminating in the disastrous Atlanta 1996 when only one gold medal was won.
Great Britain has recovered a bit since then, and the winning bid for London 2012 has generated more sporting enthusiasm and preparation. I wouldn't be surprised if Great Britain were to take quite a few gold medals from the US in athletics, and thus helping China to top the Beijing 2008 medal tally.