Hsi immediate term seem capped. TS what's yr immediate term hsi target?
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TopSage : Daily Market Talk ....
- Thread starter TopSage
- Start date
My analysis shows the HSI is setup for a BIG up day on Monday.
I have no specific target but will put in a trailing stop exit once I decide risk is too high.
On Monday hsi profit taking n did not close high. Correction seem coming.
No. Market will be up until yr end.
TS, agree till yr end will be up, but i m refering to short term trade hsi is correcting with worldwide market.
Hsi immediate correction continues n closed down -122. The consolidation shd end soon...hopefully for upside to resume.
TS, yr hsi longs still holding? Broke physco support.
Market correction shd be ending. Market may resume uptrend tonight n tomorrow.
US close strongly but china very bad shape, all Asia down. Now hsi more room to fall it seems. TS your hsi long how?
Today’s Focus
STI – 3150 support despite last week’s decline, 3290
view intact but delayed beyond this year-end
China Merchants benefits from better traffic numbers
& lower finance cost, earnings estimates & TP raised
to $1.20 (from $1.07)
The current relative underperformance in the STI could be
due to South-East Asian equities falling out of favour among
investors as this region is seen as having a higher risk when
the FED starts to taper QE. The penny stocks rout over the
past 2 months and the year end lull period provides a further
drag.
But we continue to see the prospect of the index higher
towards 3290 despite STI’s 29pt decline last week. The
likelihood of this happening though looks to be delayed
beyond the year-end lull period.
The short-term support levels for the index are 3150 and
3100. With the STI currently trading closer to 13.12x (-0.5SD)
FY14F PE at c.3100, GDP forecasted to improve next, there is
not much more that the STI can dip if the rest of the world
continues to stay firm. Unless global equities slip into a
correction, we expect the first support level at 3150 to hold.
Crude oil slid and gold declined and equity futures gained
after Iran agreed to limit its nuclear program in exchange for
relief from some sanctions. Brent crude fell 2% to USD108.81
pbl.
We believe that traffic for China Merchant’s toll roads will
grow at a mid to high single digit pace over the next few
years. Core earnings are poised to improve steadily in through
FY14 before flattening out in FY15. We raised our FY13 and
FY14 estimates by 10% and 11% respectively. Completion of
the sale of the Group’s NZ property business will also further
boost its coffers, and allow room for potentially more
acquisitions. We increase our DCF-based (WACC 9.1%)
target price to S$1.20 (from $1.07) due to our higher
earnings estimates and lower WACC assumptions. The stock
offers an attractive dividend yield of 6.3% and is trading at
just 8.8x core fully diluted FY13 PE, or 7.7x FY14 PE.
ISDN, through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Aenergy Holdings
Company Limited, plans to acquire a larger equity stake in the
Datara mini hydropower project in South Sulawesi through a
proposed JV between PT SDM and the Gowa Regency
Government in Sulawesi. ISDN through PT SDM will own
76% of the JV company while the Gowa Regency
Government retains its 20% ownership. The Datara mini
hydropower project is targeted to have am installed base
capacity of 10 megawatt.
US Indices Last Close Pts Chg % Chg
Dow Jones 16,064.8 54.8 0.3
S&P 1,804.8 8.9 0.5
NASDAQ 3,991.6 22.5 0.6
Regional Indices
ST Index 3,172.9 0.5 0.0
ST Small Cap 532.9 (0.3) (0.1)
Hang Seng 23,696.3 116.0 0.5
HSCEI 11,448.7 115.6 1.0
HSCCI 4,608.8 6.3 0.1
KLCI 1,794.5 (0.1) (0.0)
SET 1,359.1 (16.8) (1.2)
JCI 4,318.0 (8.2) (0.2)
PCOMP 6,084.8 (38.1) (0.6)
KOSPI 2,006.2 12.5 0.6
TWSE 8,116.8 17.3 0.2
Nikkei 15,381.7 16.1 0.1
STI Index Performance
Singapore
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
100-Day MA
Index
STI
Total Market cap (US$bn) 582
Total Daily Vol (m shrs) 1,487
12m ST Index High 3,454
12m ST Index Low 2,987
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Stock Picks – Large Cap
Rec’n Price ($)
22 Nov
Target Price
($)
Hutchison Port Hldgs Trust (US$) Buy 0.680 0.82
ComfortDelgro Buy 1.940 2.19
OCBC Buy 10.460 12.40
Singapore Airlines Buy 10.230 11.40
Stock Picks – Small /Mid Cap
Rec’n Price ($)
22 Nov
Target Price
($)
Ezion Holdings Buy 2.050 2.65
CSE Global Buy 1.015 1.11
Frasers Centrepoint Trust Buy 1.790 2.14
Yoma Strategic Holdings Buy 0.745 1.02
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DBS Vickers
Singapore
Wired Daily
Page 3
Keppel Land has completed the divestment of its 51% stake
in Jakarta Garden City to PT Modernland Realty Tbk
(Modernland). Based on a sale consideration of about
S$249mil, this translates into net proceeds of about S$237
million. The divestment will enable Keppel Land to realise a
net gain of about S$149 million. The sale of Keppel Land's
stake in Jakarta Garden City will allow the company to
redeploy capital to new residential and commercial projects
in Indonesia, with a focus on Jakarta.
STI – 3150 support despite last week’s decline, 3290
view intact but delayed beyond this year-end
China Merchants benefits from better traffic numbers
& lower finance cost, earnings estimates & TP raised
to $1.20 (from $1.07)
The current relative underperformance in the STI could be
due to South-East Asian equities falling out of favour among
investors as this region is seen as having a higher risk when
the FED starts to taper QE. The penny stocks rout over the
past 2 months and the year end lull period provides a further
drag.
But we continue to see the prospect of the index higher
towards 3290 despite STI’s 29pt decline last week. The
likelihood of this happening though looks to be delayed
beyond the year-end lull period.
The short-term support levels for the index are 3150 and
3100. With the STI currently trading closer to 13.12x (-0.5SD)
FY14F PE at c.3100, GDP forecasted to improve next, there is
not much more that the STI can dip if the rest of the world
continues to stay firm. Unless global equities slip into a
correction, we expect the first support level at 3150 to hold.
Crude oil slid and gold declined and equity futures gained
after Iran agreed to limit its nuclear program in exchange for
relief from some sanctions. Brent crude fell 2% to USD108.81
pbl.
We believe that traffic for China Merchant’s toll roads will
grow at a mid to high single digit pace over the next few
years. Core earnings are poised to improve steadily in through
FY14 before flattening out in FY15. We raised our FY13 and
FY14 estimates by 10% and 11% respectively. Completion of
the sale of the Group’s NZ property business will also further
boost its coffers, and allow room for potentially more
acquisitions. We increase our DCF-based (WACC 9.1%)
target price to S$1.20 (from $1.07) due to our higher
earnings estimates and lower WACC assumptions. The stock
offers an attractive dividend yield of 6.3% and is trading at
just 8.8x core fully diluted FY13 PE, or 7.7x FY14 PE.
ISDN, through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Aenergy Holdings
Company Limited, plans to acquire a larger equity stake in the
Datara mini hydropower project in South Sulawesi through a
proposed JV between PT SDM and the Gowa Regency
Government in Sulawesi. ISDN through PT SDM will own
76% of the JV company while the Gowa Regency
Government retains its 20% ownership. The Datara mini
hydropower project is targeted to have am installed base
capacity of 10 megawatt.
US Indices Last Close Pts Chg % Chg
Dow Jones 16,064.8 54.8 0.3
S&P 1,804.8 8.9 0.5
NASDAQ 3,991.6 22.5 0.6
Regional Indices
ST Index 3,172.9 0.5 0.0
ST Small Cap 532.9 (0.3) (0.1)
Hang Seng 23,696.3 116.0 0.5
HSCEI 11,448.7 115.6 1.0
HSCCI 4,608.8 6.3 0.1
KLCI 1,794.5 (0.1) (0.0)
SET 1,359.1 (16.8) (1.2)
JCI 4,318.0 (8.2) (0.2)
PCOMP 6,084.8 (38.1) (0.6)
KOSPI 2,006.2 12.5 0.6
TWSE 8,116.8 17.3 0.2
Nikkei 15,381.7 16.1 0.1
STI Index Performance
Singapore
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
100-Day MA
Index
STI
Total Market cap (US$bn) 582
Total Daily Vol (m shrs) 1,487
12m ST Index High 3,454
12m ST Index Low 2,987
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Stock Picks – Large Cap
Rec’n Price ($)
22 Nov
Target Price
($)
Hutchison Port Hldgs Trust (US$) Buy 0.680 0.82
ComfortDelgro Buy 1.940 2.19
OCBC Buy 10.460 12.40
Singapore Airlines Buy 10.230 11.40
Stock Picks – Small /Mid Cap
Rec’n Price ($)
22 Nov
Target Price
($)
Ezion Holdings Buy 2.050 2.65
CSE Global Buy 1.015 1.11
Frasers Centrepoint Trust Buy 1.790 2.14
Yoma Strategic Holdings Buy 0.745 1.02
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DBS Vickers
Singapore
Wired Daily
Page 3
Keppel Land has completed the divestment of its 51% stake
in Jakarta Garden City to PT Modernland Realty Tbk
(Modernland). Based on a sale consideration of about
S$249mil, this translates into net proceeds of about S$237
million. The divestment will enable Keppel Land to realise a
net gain of about S$149 million. The sale of Keppel Land's
stake in Jakarta Garden City will allow the company to
redeploy capital to new residential and commercial projects
in Indonesia, with a focus on Jakarta.
Keppel Corporation Limited announced that it has in conjunction with the National University of Singapore (NUS) set up the Keppel-NUS Corporate Laboratory, in collaboration with the National Research Foundation (NRF), Prime Minister’s Office, Singapore. The laboratory, which will be based at the NUS Faculty of Engineering, will be established with an investment amount of S$75million. (Closing price: S$11.18, +0.179%)
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial Reit has signed a conditional agreement with a Stockland managed fund, Stockland Direct Office Trust No. 2, to acquire a 49 per cent stake in Optus Centre for A$184.4 million (S$215 million). Optus Centre is a premium business park at Macquarie Park in Sydney's north. It is 100 per cent leased to Optus Administration Pty Ltd - a unit of SingTel Optus, the second largest telecommunications company in Australia - for a weighted average lease term of 8.6 years with fixed annual escalation of three per cent. This is the Reit's first investment in Australia. According to its website, all the properties in its portfolio so far are located in Singapore. CBRE, in its October 10, 2013 report had valued the property at A$377 million in the open market. The value of a 49 per cent stake would therefore work out to A$184.7 million - on par with the Reit's purchase price. (Closing price: $1.50, -1.639%)
COSCO (Qidong) Offshore, a subsidiary of Cosco Corporation's 51 per cent owned subsidiary Cosco Shipyard Group, was awarded contracts each in excess of US$200 million, for the engineering, procurement and construction of two semi-submersible accommodation vessels. The vessels Safe Notos and Safe Eurus are scheduled for delivery in 2016. They will be of Gusto MSC Ocean 500 design and will be equipped with 500 beds, DP3 station keeping systems, 10-point chain mooring and 300 ton cranes. The company said that this will allow for operations in both DP and anchored mode, providing maximum cost efficiency and flexibility. (Closing price: S$0.72, +0.699%)
Yongnam Holdings said that it had secured a record $168 million subcontract through its wholly owned subsidiary, Yongnam Engineering & Construction Pte Ltd. Yongnam will fabricate and construct a record of almost 30,000 tonnes of structural steelwork for Marina One, a mixed-use development located at Marina South, Singapore's new Central Business District. (Closing price: S$0.24, -%)
Freight Links Express Holdings Limited announced that the company name, Freight Links Express Holdings Limited, has been changed to Vibrant Group Limited following shareholders’ approval at the Extraordinary General Meeting held this morning. (Closing price: S$0.105, -%)
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial Reit has signed a conditional agreement with a Stockland managed fund, Stockland Direct Office Trust No. 2, to acquire a 49 per cent stake in Optus Centre for A$184.4 million (S$215 million). Optus Centre is a premium business park at Macquarie Park in Sydney's north. It is 100 per cent leased to Optus Administration Pty Ltd - a unit of SingTel Optus, the second largest telecommunications company in Australia - for a weighted average lease term of 8.6 years with fixed annual escalation of three per cent. This is the Reit's first investment in Australia. According to its website, all the properties in its portfolio so far are located in Singapore. CBRE, in its October 10, 2013 report had valued the property at A$377 million in the open market. The value of a 49 per cent stake would therefore work out to A$184.7 million - on par with the Reit's purchase price. (Closing price: $1.50, -1.639%)
COSCO (Qidong) Offshore, a subsidiary of Cosco Corporation's 51 per cent owned subsidiary Cosco Shipyard Group, was awarded contracts each in excess of US$200 million, for the engineering, procurement and construction of two semi-submersible accommodation vessels. The vessels Safe Notos and Safe Eurus are scheduled for delivery in 2016. They will be of Gusto MSC Ocean 500 design and will be equipped with 500 beds, DP3 station keeping systems, 10-point chain mooring and 300 ton cranes. The company said that this will allow for operations in both DP and anchored mode, providing maximum cost efficiency and flexibility. (Closing price: S$0.72, +0.699%)
Yongnam Holdings said that it had secured a record $168 million subcontract through its wholly owned subsidiary, Yongnam Engineering & Construction Pte Ltd. Yongnam will fabricate and construct a record of almost 30,000 tonnes of structural steelwork for Marina One, a mixed-use development located at Marina South, Singapore's new Central Business District. (Closing price: S$0.24, -%)
Freight Links Express Holdings Limited announced that the company name, Freight Links Express Holdings Limited, has been changed to Vibrant Group Limited following shareholders’ approval at the Extraordinary General Meeting held this morning. (Closing price: S$0.105, -%)
PLAYING CATCH-UP SOON?
-Outlook is improving
-Valuations remain undemanding
-Stock picks strategy favouring banks and O&G
While the Singapore stock market is likely to end 2013 flat, the economic outlook for 2014 could mean Asian and Singapore equities are worth a re-look. We expect developed markets’ issues which dominated global headlines in the last two years to remain, largely centering on slowing economic growth, debt and high unemployment. However, the recent 3Q corporate results in Singapore point to a cautious optimism for 2014, and this could mean high single-digit earnings growth for the benchmark STI stocks. We continue to have an OVERWEIGHT for the Banking and Oil & Gas sectors, and are selectively positive on certain Property stocks and REITs. The Straits Times Index (STI) is currently trading at undemanding valuations of 13.7x FY14 earnings, 1.35x book and with decent dividend yield of 3.3%. Our stock picks for 2014 in the big cap space CapitaLand, CapitaCommercial Trust, DBS, Ezion Holdings, Keppel Corporation, Keppel Land, Sembcorp Marine, Starhill Global, Suntec REIT and UOB.In the mid-cap space, our stock picks are KSH, Nam Cheongand Sheng Siong Group. (Carmen Lee)
-Outlook is improving
-Valuations remain undemanding
-Stock picks strategy favouring banks and O&G
While the Singapore stock market is likely to end 2013 flat, the economic outlook for 2014 could mean Asian and Singapore equities are worth a re-look. We expect developed markets’ issues which dominated global headlines in the last two years to remain, largely centering on slowing economic growth, debt and high unemployment. However, the recent 3Q corporate results in Singapore point to a cautious optimism for 2014, and this could mean high single-digit earnings growth for the benchmark STI stocks. We continue to have an OVERWEIGHT for the Banking and Oil & Gas sectors, and are selectively positive on certain Property stocks and REITs. The Straits Times Index (STI) is currently trading at undemanding valuations of 13.7x FY14 earnings, 1.35x book and with decent dividend yield of 3.3%. Our stock picks for 2014 in the big cap space CapitaLand, CapitaCommercial Trust, DBS, Ezion Holdings, Keppel Corporation, Keppel Land, Sembcorp Marine, Starhill Global, Suntec REIT and UOB.In the mid-cap space, our stock picks are KSH, Nam Cheongand Sheng Siong Group. (Carmen Lee)
Splendid! Off load while holding on to.. ahem ahem ahem....
Today maybe a good chance to start shorting Asia markets. Expected downside till Christmas.
Expected Asia market to fall more......
More to fall....
More selling to come....
Selling continues in Jan 2014....
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