Than is like cutting yr nose to spite yr face. All these unwanted misery n economic costs. N of course the people are the ones that suffer.n they dont even know it
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The Irrational Fear and the cost of the Wuhan Virus, Is it worth it?
- Thread starter Hypocrite-The
- Start date
KNN you all neber read news is it KNN will flu have > 10% of flu patients same time in icu KNN
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...FjAGegQIAxAB&usg=AOvVaw1DTfNyuvIBe27PLnm4ip-Z
Travel safe: Keeping viral news on pandemics in perspective
Josh Martin05:00, Feb 15 2020
Coronavirus outbreak: Lessons from SARS virus helps China's response
China has curbed travel and stepped up screening to try and curb the spread of the virus which emerged in December. ...
OPINION: The 2am Whatsapp message earlier this month caught me by surprise.
"Oh no. Coronavirus could ruin our holiday! What do you think?"
I prefaced my response the same as I will to you: I am not a disease researcher. I'm not a doctor. In fact, I'm not even sure I have a first aid kit.
This beloved and befuddled family member was somewhat short on facts, so it seems wise to bring you up to speed: The holiday is in six months. It is based mainly on the Mediterranean, not Mainland China – although there is a short stopover in Southeast Asia. The lucky attendees are all fairly fit and in fine health. In short, the chances of contracting the strain known as 2019-nCoV (novel coronavirus) and showing symptoms, let alone dying, are very, very small.
Asia taking no chances with new China virus as WHO meeting looms
Enhanced screening in place from Taiwan to Singapore as countries trigger responses honed by SARS experience. ...
READ MORE:
But such is the combination of 24-hour news cycles, social media and governments trying to look like they're doing something (anything!) that the scales can often necessarily tip from awareness into panic.
ISTOCK
The coronavirus situation is both complex and changing, which is why it pays to keep yourself up-to-date.
My response on Whatsapp is very similar to ones I send following a terrorist attack or natural disaster: "Yes very sad, but things like that happen everywhere. You've greater risk of dying from shark attack/malaria/car crash on SH1. Proceed with caution".
This being the era of fake news, click-bait and your weird aunty sharing both on Facebook it's easy to understand how old, unrelated videos about bat soup and conspiracy theories about Big Pharma and Chinese spies cross into the mainstream and whip up fear. Of course we should ask questions, but consider where the answers are coming from. Best not to cancel your airfare because of a Twitter thread.
ISTOCK
Washing your hands frequently, and using hand sanitiser is the best way to stay safe while travelling.
The coronavirus situation is both complex and changing, which is why it pays to keep yourself up-to-date and call out misinformation when you see it. That includes grossly exaggerated responses, of which cancelling your travel plans may fall into.
Based off current information from the World Health Organization, studies from top universities and reports from authorities in China and elsewhere, this strand has a mortality rate of between 2-3 per cent, which is less than the SARS virus and far less than the strand of Ebola that ravaged in West Africa only a few years ago.
That being said, with now tens of thousands of confirmed cases (around 99 per cent of them in China) and a death-toll still increasing, governments around the world are obviously right to issue travel warnings and organise evacuation flights from the most-affected country, China.
The New Zealand Government has advised Kiwis against travelling to China, and at the time of writing is denying entry to any foreign travellers who have come from China from 2 February onwards.
Many travellers due to head to China in the coming weeks will have likely had their plans upended by the airlines suspending flights into Chinese hubs such as Shanghai and Beijing, but for those travelling around Easter and beyond it's best to hold tight, and stay informed on the virus strand's spread.
Clear heads and probably larger travel first aid kits should prevail.
Just as you would increase precautions if travelling to a malaria zone (and you should, since its annual death rate far exceeds this newbie virus) you should do so if you're passing through zones with increasing numbers of cases: increased hygiene measures such as washing and sanitising your hands, not touching your face, avoiding live animal markets and sick people and seeking prompt medical treatment if you start feeling unwell.
Doctors with International SoS, a consultancy for business travellers travelling to crisis zones reiterated that if you are struck down with something in a foreign country, it is more likely you'll have a common cold, the flu or another more common virus than this newsworthy 2019-nCoV strand.
However, medical professionals and business travel experts agree that because there are still many unanswered questions about this new strand, staying informed is crucial.
Danny Kaine, head of assistance at Traveller Assist, said "Even though the risk is low right now, it does not mean that the virus will not mutate. Everyone should be armed with the facts. You shouldn't discount or disregard the virus completely just because you don't live in or travel to China".
Nor should you, it must be said, melodramatically cancel your plans for travel to places it has barely reached.
Josh Martin05:00, Feb 15 2020
Coronavirus outbreak: Lessons from SARS virus helps China's response
China has curbed travel and stepped up screening to try and curb the spread of the virus which emerged in December. ...
OPINION: The 2am Whatsapp message earlier this month caught me by surprise.
"Oh no. Coronavirus could ruin our holiday! What do you think?"
I prefaced my response the same as I will to you: I am not a disease researcher. I'm not a doctor. In fact, I'm not even sure I have a first aid kit.
This beloved and befuddled family member was somewhat short on facts, so it seems wise to bring you up to speed: The holiday is in six months. It is based mainly on the Mediterranean, not Mainland China – although there is a short stopover in Southeast Asia. The lucky attendees are all fairly fit and in fine health. In short, the chances of contracting the strain known as 2019-nCoV (novel coronavirus) and showing symptoms, let alone dying, are very, very small.
Asia taking no chances with new China virus as WHO meeting looms
Enhanced screening in place from Taiwan to Singapore as countries trigger responses honed by SARS experience. ...
READ MORE:
But such is the combination of 24-hour news cycles, social media and governments trying to look like they're doing something (anything!) that the scales can often necessarily tip from awareness into panic.
ISTOCK
The coronavirus situation is both complex and changing, which is why it pays to keep yourself up-to-date.
My response on Whatsapp is very similar to ones I send following a terrorist attack or natural disaster: "Yes very sad, but things like that happen everywhere. You've greater risk of dying from shark attack/malaria/car crash on SH1. Proceed with caution".
This being the era of fake news, click-bait and your weird aunty sharing both on Facebook it's easy to understand how old, unrelated videos about bat soup and conspiracy theories about Big Pharma and Chinese spies cross into the mainstream and whip up fear. Of course we should ask questions, but consider where the answers are coming from. Best not to cancel your airfare because of a Twitter thread.
ISTOCK
Washing your hands frequently, and using hand sanitiser is the best way to stay safe while travelling.
The coronavirus situation is both complex and changing, which is why it pays to keep yourself up-to-date and call out misinformation when you see it. That includes grossly exaggerated responses, of which cancelling your travel plans may fall into.
Based off current information from the World Health Organization, studies from top universities and reports from authorities in China and elsewhere, this strand has a mortality rate of between 2-3 per cent, which is less than the SARS virus and far less than the strand of Ebola that ravaged in West Africa only a few years ago.
That being said, with now tens of thousands of confirmed cases (around 99 per cent of them in China) and a death-toll still increasing, governments around the world are obviously right to issue travel warnings and organise evacuation flights from the most-affected country, China.
The New Zealand Government has advised Kiwis against travelling to China, and at the time of writing is denying entry to any foreign travellers who have come from China from 2 February onwards.
Many travellers due to head to China in the coming weeks will have likely had their plans upended by the airlines suspending flights into Chinese hubs such as Shanghai and Beijing, but for those travelling around Easter and beyond it's best to hold tight, and stay informed on the virus strand's spread.
Clear heads and probably larger travel first aid kits should prevail.
Just as you would increase precautions if travelling to a malaria zone (and you should, since its annual death rate far exceeds this newbie virus) you should do so if you're passing through zones with increasing numbers of cases: increased hygiene measures such as washing and sanitising your hands, not touching your face, avoiding live animal markets and sick people and seeking prompt medical treatment if you start feeling unwell.
Doctors with International SoS, a consultancy for business travellers travelling to crisis zones reiterated that if you are struck down with something in a foreign country, it is more likely you'll have a common cold, the flu or another more common virus than this newsworthy 2019-nCoV strand.
However, medical professionals and business travel experts agree that because there are still many unanswered questions about this new strand, staying informed is crucial.
Danny Kaine, head of assistance at Traveller Assist, said "Even though the risk is low right now, it does not mean that the virus will not mutate. Everyone should be armed with the facts. You shouldn't discount or disregard the virus completely just because you don't live in or travel to China".
Nor should you, it must be said, melodramatically cancel your plans for travel to places it has barely reached.
The wuhan virus does not kill..but the fear destroys ones livelihood. Better to die of the virus.
As coronavirus fears spread, Chinese restaurants report 80pc drop in business
Jack Chen, manager of Good Luck Hot Pot
Thursday 13 February 2020 4:05pm
James Purtil
At weekday lunch time in Sydney's Chinatown, Dixon Street is normally bustling with hungry locals and tourists. But two weeks ago, around the time coronavirus fears took hold, business collapsed almost overnight.
It's down between 60-80 per cent, several restaurant managers told Hack. Many say they can only stay afloat for a few more weeks.
"We may not be killed by the virus but instead killed by the business environment," Victor Tan, manager of New Chilli House, told Hack.
The well-known business has been losing $10,000 a week, Victor says.
Victor Tan, manager of New Chilli House
Victor Tan, manager of New Chilli House.
triple j Hack
A few doors down, Jack Chen, manager of Good Luck Hot Pot, says he can't describe how difficult it has been for him and his staff.
"It's been a really hard time," he said.
Sydney's Chinatown is not alone: City of Ryde in the city's north reports some businesses have seen a 50-80 per cent drop in turnover.
Leasing agents say certain areas are trading down between 50 and 90 per cent.
In Melbourne, many Chinatown businesses have reportedly been forced to shut down for several weeks and others are closing earlier. Shark Fin House, one of the city's most loved restaurants, has closed its doors after more than 30 years.
In Adelaide, South Australian Premier Steven Marshall has put out a Facebook video assuring the public, "Chinatown is safe and open for business".
What makes the financial loss sting, both Victor and Jack say, is that people's fears are unfounded.
There are no reports of human-to-human coronavirus transmission in Australia: There's no sign anyone is catching it from anyone else.
There are only 15 confirmed cases of coronavirus in the country.
Health authorities have repeatedly stated there is no reason for people to avoid anybody of any particular background.
"The media emphasis is too much on fear," Victor said, surrounded by empty tables prepared for customers that won't come.
Dixon Street in Sydney's Chinatown.
triple j Hack
'Go to a Chinese restaurant this Valentine's Day'
Politicians and community leaders have been calling on the public to support Chinese restaurants by dining out this Valentine's Day.
''We've got Valentine's [Day] coming up in a few days' time. Bring your loved ones here, have a special dinner [at] one of our wonderful Chinese restaurants across Melbourne, and support our important Chinese businesses," Victorian Health Minister Jenny Mikakos said on Wednesday.
Federation of Ethnic Communities' Council of Australia chief executive Mohammad Al-Khafaji said Chinese for Valentine's Day was a great idea.
Speaking to ABC RN Breakfast, Mr Al-Khafaji added that coronavirus fears have not only affected the Chinese community.
He said there were anecdotal reports of an uptick in racist incidents.
"People don't distinguish between Chinese-Australians and other Asian Australians," he said.
In a glaring example of this, a Malyasian student last week was evicted from her Perth home due to her landlord's fears about the coronavirus outbreak, despite the fact she had not travelled to China.
Mr Al-Khafaji said there were other examples, too.
"We've had reports of people on public transport not sitting next to them because they're of Asian background," he said.
"Other examples are people not getting picked up by Uber if they have Asian-sounding last names."
"Racism spreads faster than the virus. It does more damage than the virus does."
Chinese-Australians also abandoning Chinese restaurants
In Sydney's Chinatown, not only have non-Chinese Australians stopped dining out, but so have the Chinese-Australian local residents.
New Chilli House's Victor Tan said that, before the outbreak, about half of his customers were Chinese-Australians. He said virus fears have been spreading rapidly online, especially on Chinese-language news and messaging apps like WeChat.
"Chinese people are reading the news in China and getting scared," he said.
Victor Tan, manager of New Chilli House
Victor Tan, manager of New Chilli House.
triple j Hack
Good Luck Hot Pot's Jack Chen says business collapsed immediately after the the Government announced on February 1 that non-citizens were blocked from travelling from China into Australia, as a measure to stop the spread of the coronavirus.
"Local Chinese people stopped coming," he said.
The City of Ryde Council in Sydney is seeking to establish a $500,000 Small Business Hardship Fund to support businesses affected by coronavirus fears.
The City of Sydney, which includes Chinatown, has not yet announced any assistance.
As coronavirus fears spread, Chinese restaurants report 80pc drop in business
Jack Chen, manager of Good Luck Hot Pot
Thursday 13 February 2020 4:05pm
James Purtil
At weekday lunch time in Sydney's Chinatown, Dixon Street is normally bustling with hungry locals and tourists. But two weeks ago, around the time coronavirus fears took hold, business collapsed almost overnight.
It's down between 60-80 per cent, several restaurant managers told Hack. Many say they can only stay afloat for a few more weeks.
"We may not be killed by the virus but instead killed by the business environment," Victor Tan, manager of New Chilli House, told Hack.
The well-known business has been losing $10,000 a week, Victor says.
Victor Tan, manager of New Chilli House
Victor Tan, manager of New Chilli House.
triple j Hack
A few doors down, Jack Chen, manager of Good Luck Hot Pot, says he can't describe how difficult it has been for him and his staff.
"It's been a really hard time," he said.
Sydney's Chinatown is not alone: City of Ryde in the city's north reports some businesses have seen a 50-80 per cent drop in turnover.
Leasing agents say certain areas are trading down between 50 and 90 per cent.
In Melbourne, many Chinatown businesses have reportedly been forced to shut down for several weeks and others are closing earlier. Shark Fin House, one of the city's most loved restaurants, has closed its doors after more than 30 years.
In Adelaide, South Australian Premier Steven Marshall has put out a Facebook video assuring the public, "Chinatown is safe and open for business".
What makes the financial loss sting, both Victor and Jack say, is that people's fears are unfounded.
There are no reports of human-to-human coronavirus transmission in Australia: There's no sign anyone is catching it from anyone else.
There are only 15 confirmed cases of coronavirus in the country.
Health authorities have repeatedly stated there is no reason for people to avoid anybody of any particular background.
"The media emphasis is too much on fear," Victor said, surrounded by empty tables prepared for customers that won't come.
Dixon Street in Sydney's Chinatown.
triple j Hack
'Go to a Chinese restaurant this Valentine's Day'
Politicians and community leaders have been calling on the public to support Chinese restaurants by dining out this Valentine's Day.
''We've got Valentine's [Day] coming up in a few days' time. Bring your loved ones here, have a special dinner [at] one of our wonderful Chinese restaurants across Melbourne, and support our important Chinese businesses," Victorian Health Minister Jenny Mikakos said on Wednesday.
Federation of Ethnic Communities' Council of Australia chief executive Mohammad Al-Khafaji said Chinese for Valentine's Day was a great idea.
Speaking to ABC RN Breakfast, Mr Al-Khafaji added that coronavirus fears have not only affected the Chinese community.
He said there were anecdotal reports of an uptick in racist incidents.
"People don't distinguish between Chinese-Australians and other Asian Australians," he said.
In a glaring example of this, a Malyasian student last week was evicted from her Perth home due to her landlord's fears about the coronavirus outbreak, despite the fact she had not travelled to China.
Mr Al-Khafaji said there were other examples, too.
"We've had reports of people on public transport not sitting next to them because they're of Asian background," he said.
"Other examples are people not getting picked up by Uber if they have Asian-sounding last names."
"Racism spreads faster than the virus. It does more damage than the virus does."
Chinese-Australians also abandoning Chinese restaurants
In Sydney's Chinatown, not only have non-Chinese Australians stopped dining out, but so have the Chinese-Australian local residents.
New Chilli House's Victor Tan said that, before the outbreak, about half of his customers were Chinese-Australians. He said virus fears have been spreading rapidly online, especially on Chinese-language news and messaging apps like WeChat.
"Chinese people are reading the news in China and getting scared," he said.
Victor Tan, manager of New Chilli House
Victor Tan, manager of New Chilli House.
triple j Hack
Good Luck Hot Pot's Jack Chen says business collapsed immediately after the the Government announced on February 1 that non-citizens were blocked from travelling from China into Australia, as a measure to stop the spread of the coronavirus.
"Local Chinese people stopped coming," he said.
The City of Ryde Council in Sydney is seeking to establish a $500,000 Small Business Hardship Fund to support businesses affected by coronavirus fears.
The City of Sydney, which includes Chinatown, has not yet announced any assistance.
Commentary: How much damage will COVID-19 inflict on China’s economy?
The key factor in assessing the economic impact of the coronavirus will not be the outbreak's range or severity, but rather its duration, says an observer.
Security personnel wearing masks cross a road at the Financial Street in central Beijing
Security personnel wearing masks cross a road at the Financial Street in central Beijing, China, as the country is hit by an outbreak of the new coronavirus, February 3, 2020. REUTERS/Jason Lee
Bookmark
SHANGHAI: Just five days before the Chinese New Year, the authorities in Beijing finally declared the coronavirus epidemic that originated in Wuhan to be a major public health emergency.
Because Wuhan’s municipal government had initially withheld information and failed to control the virus effectively, about 5 million residents and temporary workers left the city for the Lunar New Year holidays before the city was officially closed off on Jan 23.
As a result, the virus spread rapidly throughout China and beyond, leading to the current high-profile international health emergency.
Unsurprisingly, China’s economy is slowing down. The services sector, which includes retail, tourism, hotels, and transportation, and accounts for more than half of the country’s GDP, is suffering severely.
Disruption in this sector will in turn affect manufacturing. And growing international concern at the continued spread of the virus might further strain trade and limit the movement of people.
But the key question is whether we believe it will last longer.
My answer is no. The coronavirus epidemic is very unlikely to last long.
CHINA'S EFFECTIVE CONTROL MEASURES
Despite all its problems, China undoubtedly still has an unparalleled ability to mobilise resources in response to a large-scale emergency.
Medical workers take the temperature of passengers after they got off the train in Jiujiang
Medical workers take the temperature of passengers after they got off the train in Jiujiang, Jiangxi province, China, as the country is hit by an outbreak of a new coronavirus, January 29, 2020.REUTERS/Thomas Peter
During the last two weeks, for example, official efforts aimed at controlling panic have been first-rate.
In addition to ordering a nationwide mobilisation of medical personnel and resources (including from the military), the authorities have been assessing major hospitals’ capabilities to diagnose and treat coronavirus patients.
More importantly, as part of a national disease-control campaign announced on Jan 20, officials are identifying and observing any citizens who had traveled to and from Wuhan since the outbreak began.
READ: Commentary: Fighting fear is key part in battling COVID-19
Meanwhile, urban communities and rural villages alike have tightened access restrictions in order to reduce unnecessary movements and aggregations of people, even establishing temporary rationing systems to distribute face masks to families and individuals.
In addition, holidays have been extended and schools remain closed.
By helping to minimise the public’s exposure to the peak of the epidemic, these steps are playing an effective role in curbing the spread of infection. There is a higher probability that the increase in the number of infections will slow in the coming weeks.
SHORT-TERM SLOWDOWNS
It is still too early to assess the full economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak. However, the key factor will not be the epidemic’s range or severity, but rather its duration.
A man wears a mask as he walks past a mural showing a modified image of the Chinese Communist Party
A man wears a mask as he walks past a mural showing a modified image of the Chinese Communist Party emblem in Shanghai, China after the country is hit by an outbreak of the new coronavirus, January 28, 2020. REUTERS/Aly Song
The sooner the epidemic is over, the quicker China’s economy will recover, given its trend growth. Although severe control measures will weaken current economic performance, they might help to end the outbreak earlier.
In any case, as both a theoretical and empirical matter, epidemics can cause only short-term economic slowdowns. Having said that, external shocks will not significantly alter the Chinese economy’s medium- and long-term growth trend.
Once the coronavirus storm passes, the economy will bounce back and return to its previous course.
READ: Commentary: The biggest work-from-home exercise may have just begun. How ready is Singapore?
Back in 2003, for example, most economists and researchers estimated that the SARS outbreak would lower China’s second-quarter GDP growth by about one-fifth, but shave less than 0.5 percentage points off the full-year figure.
These forecasts reflected the limited number of regions and sectors affected by SARS, as well as the expectation that the outbreak would last no more than three months.
As predicted, second-quarter GDP growth fell by two percentage points in 2003. At the time, China’s economy was expanding by about 10 per cent annually, and the SARS-induced slowdown was quickly offset by subsequent strong growth.
So, on a graph of Chinese growth from 2002 to 2007, the impact of the SARS outbreak is not even visible.
READ: Commentary: SARS was scary, but the experience was invaluable in shaping our Wuhan virus response
DURATION THE KEY FACTOR
Although the scope of the coronavirus outbreak now exceeds that of SARS, its duration is still the key factor for assessing the size of the impact on the economy.
Current data suggest that the epidemic will likely reach a turning point in the next two weeks. That would mean China might conquer the virus in the first quarter, which is essential to mitigating the epidemic’s impact on overall growth in 2020.
Security personnel check the temperature of shoppers at Hema, an Alibaba supermarket in Hangzhou,
Security personnel check the temperature of shoppers at Hema, an Alibaba supermarket in Hangzhou, the latest city to face restrictions in a bid to halt the spread of the novel coronavirus AFP/NOEL CELIS
True, China’s annual GDP growth of just over 6 per cent in the last several years is much slower than at the time of the SARS outbreak. But the Chinese authorities can still ensure a robust recovery through targeted fiscal- and monetary-policy adjustments that support small and medium-size enterprises and service-sector businesses affected by the coronavirus epidemic.
According to my preliminary estimates, the worst-case scenario is that the epidemic lowers GDP growth in the first quarter by a third or half, leaving the figure 2 to 3 percentage points lower than in the first quarter of 2019.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/new...omy-growth-slow-business-impact-sars-12423092
The key factor in assessing the economic impact of the coronavirus will not be the outbreak's range or severity, but rather its duration, says an observer.
Security personnel wearing masks cross a road at the Financial Street in central Beijing
Security personnel wearing masks cross a road at the Financial Street in central Beijing, China, as the country is hit by an outbreak of the new coronavirus, February 3, 2020. REUTERS/Jason Lee
Bookmark
SHANGHAI: Just five days before the Chinese New Year, the authorities in Beijing finally declared the coronavirus epidemic that originated in Wuhan to be a major public health emergency.
Because Wuhan’s municipal government had initially withheld information and failed to control the virus effectively, about 5 million residents and temporary workers left the city for the Lunar New Year holidays before the city was officially closed off on Jan 23.
As a result, the virus spread rapidly throughout China and beyond, leading to the current high-profile international health emergency.
Unsurprisingly, China’s economy is slowing down. The services sector, which includes retail, tourism, hotels, and transportation, and accounts for more than half of the country’s GDP, is suffering severely.
Disruption in this sector will in turn affect manufacturing. And growing international concern at the continued spread of the virus might further strain trade and limit the movement of people.
But the key question is whether we believe it will last longer.
My answer is no. The coronavirus epidemic is very unlikely to last long.
CHINA'S EFFECTIVE CONTROL MEASURES
Despite all its problems, China undoubtedly still has an unparalleled ability to mobilise resources in response to a large-scale emergency.
Medical workers take the temperature of passengers after they got off the train in Jiujiang
Medical workers take the temperature of passengers after they got off the train in Jiujiang, Jiangxi province, China, as the country is hit by an outbreak of a new coronavirus, January 29, 2020.REUTERS/Thomas Peter
During the last two weeks, for example, official efforts aimed at controlling panic have been first-rate.
In addition to ordering a nationwide mobilisation of medical personnel and resources (including from the military), the authorities have been assessing major hospitals’ capabilities to diagnose and treat coronavirus patients.
More importantly, as part of a national disease-control campaign announced on Jan 20, officials are identifying and observing any citizens who had traveled to and from Wuhan since the outbreak began.
READ: Commentary: Fighting fear is key part in battling COVID-19
Meanwhile, urban communities and rural villages alike have tightened access restrictions in order to reduce unnecessary movements and aggregations of people, even establishing temporary rationing systems to distribute face masks to families and individuals.
In addition, holidays have been extended and schools remain closed.
By helping to minimise the public’s exposure to the peak of the epidemic, these steps are playing an effective role in curbing the spread of infection. There is a higher probability that the increase in the number of infections will slow in the coming weeks.
SHORT-TERM SLOWDOWNS
It is still too early to assess the full economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak. However, the key factor will not be the epidemic’s range or severity, but rather its duration.
A man wears a mask as he walks past a mural showing a modified image of the Chinese Communist Party
A man wears a mask as he walks past a mural showing a modified image of the Chinese Communist Party emblem in Shanghai, China after the country is hit by an outbreak of the new coronavirus, January 28, 2020. REUTERS/Aly Song
The sooner the epidemic is over, the quicker China’s economy will recover, given its trend growth. Although severe control measures will weaken current economic performance, they might help to end the outbreak earlier.
In any case, as both a theoretical and empirical matter, epidemics can cause only short-term economic slowdowns. Having said that, external shocks will not significantly alter the Chinese economy’s medium- and long-term growth trend.
Once the coronavirus storm passes, the economy will bounce back and return to its previous course.
READ: Commentary: The biggest work-from-home exercise may have just begun. How ready is Singapore?
Back in 2003, for example, most economists and researchers estimated that the SARS outbreak would lower China’s second-quarter GDP growth by about one-fifth, but shave less than 0.5 percentage points off the full-year figure.
These forecasts reflected the limited number of regions and sectors affected by SARS, as well as the expectation that the outbreak would last no more than three months.
As predicted, second-quarter GDP growth fell by two percentage points in 2003. At the time, China’s economy was expanding by about 10 per cent annually, and the SARS-induced slowdown was quickly offset by subsequent strong growth.
So, on a graph of Chinese growth from 2002 to 2007, the impact of the SARS outbreak is not even visible.
READ: Commentary: SARS was scary, but the experience was invaluable in shaping our Wuhan virus response
DURATION THE KEY FACTOR
Although the scope of the coronavirus outbreak now exceeds that of SARS, its duration is still the key factor for assessing the size of the impact on the economy.
Current data suggest that the epidemic will likely reach a turning point in the next two weeks. That would mean China might conquer the virus in the first quarter, which is essential to mitigating the epidemic’s impact on overall growth in 2020.
Security personnel check the temperature of shoppers at Hema, an Alibaba supermarket in Hangzhou,
Security personnel check the temperature of shoppers at Hema, an Alibaba supermarket in Hangzhou, the latest city to face restrictions in a bid to halt the spread of the novel coronavirus AFP/NOEL CELIS
True, China’s annual GDP growth of just over 6 per cent in the last several years is much slower than at the time of the SARS outbreak. But the Chinese authorities can still ensure a robust recovery through targeted fiscal- and monetary-policy adjustments that support small and medium-size enterprises and service-sector businesses affected by the coronavirus epidemic.
According to my preliminary estimates, the worst-case scenario is that the epidemic lowers GDP growth in the first quarter by a third or half, leaving the figure 2 to 3 percentage points lower than in the first quarter of 2019.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/new...omy-growth-slow-business-impact-sars-12423092
Flu is everywhere. Wat is the difference?Still talking shit? Corona infect your town see u scare anot? Talk big only.
Tech Tent: Is social media spreading the virus?
Share this with EmailShare this with FacebookShare this with TwitterShare this with WhatsappImage caption Even at the Samsung event in San Francisco, the coronavirus loomed large
It was the week when the mobile phone industry's biggest annual trade show was called off over fears about the spread of the coronavirus.
On the Tech Tent podcast this week, we look at the fallout from the cancellation of Mobile World Congress - and ask whether social media has played a positive or negative role in helping people understand the threat posed by the virus.
We've been in California this week - the podcast was recorded from the studios of KQED in San Francisco - and we've watched as the tech industry here has tried to get to grips with the threat posed by the coronavirus.
At the beginning of the week, while major players like Ericsson and LG had pulled out of MWC, the general mood seemed to be that the show would go ahead.
We took a trip across the Bay Bridge to Berkeley in search of some expertise.
Fear spreads faster than infection
There we found Dr Lee Riley, professor of infectious diseases and vaccinology at the University of California - a man who has spent his career studying epidemics, including a spell at the World Health Organization.
He was surprisingly sanguine about the coronavirus, pointing out that common-or-garden influenza was far more deadly, though he said he understood that uncertainty about the nature of the disease was bound to make people fearful.
Image caption Constant updates on the virus "feed into some of the anxiety"
But he said a 24/7 news culture and the rise of social media made that fear spread faster than the virus itself - especially as the coronavirus was being diagnosed far more rapidly than Sars was 20 years ago.
"They do the diagnosis, and then we hear about the news of the diagnosis right away throughout the world instantaneously. They're constantly getting updates on this... and I think that feeds into some of the anxiety that people have."
Social media was giving people partial information, but not all the facts, and that magnified their concerns.
He seemed surprised when we told him there was talk of cancelling Mobile World Congress. He said that would be an "over-reaction". Even if people were attending the show from China, he said, "we have new ways to diagnose these types of infections very quickly and accurately so that shouldn't be a concern."
Feeling the heat at Samsung
The following day, the mobile industry's market leader Samsung was launching its latest devices in San Francisco.
On our way into the event – which, like MWC, had attracted visitors from around the world – we had to walk past a temperature sensor to screen us for fever, a symptom of the coronavirus.
Inside, there were plentiful supplies of face masks and hand sanitiser.
Image caption Temperature sensors like this one a the Samsung event are being used across the globe
Then we got to see a spectacular show where the flagship Galaxy S20, now with 5G across all its versions, was unveiled.
Having been under pressure from China's Huawei, which seemed to be leading the way on camera innovation, Samsung showed off a combined optical and digital 100x zoom which allowed the phone to pick out the Palace of Fine Arts where the event was taking place from a vantage point miles away, overlooking the Golden Gate Bridge.
The star of the show, however, was Samsung's second folding phone the Galaxy Z Flip, a smaller and far more elegant device than last year's Galaxy Fold, even though the $1,380 (£1,058) price tag seems a bit steep just to be able to slip it into your jeans pocket.
Video captionWATCH: Rory Cellan-Jones and Zoe Thomas puzzle out the Z Flip phone
This was the second time Samsung had held its major event of the year before Mobile World Congress, previously the launch pad for its new Galaxy phones.
Disappointment and disinformation
That move looked even smarter the next day, when the news came through that MWC had been cancelled. That leaves its biggest Android rival Huawei with no venue to show off its latest devices - it had been planning to make a big splash in Barcelona.
The leading analyst Carolina Milanesi of Creative Strategies, who is based in Silicon Valley, told us she was disappointed to be missing the show – an opportunity to get a global perspective on the industry.
She made the point that a lot of the action takes place behind the scenes, with senior executives meeting and making deals. But the impact on the industry of cancelling the show was as nothing compared to the wider damage the virus could cause.
"It is nowhere near the impact that the coronavirus could actually have from a manufacturing perspective, from delaying products to lack of availability of products that are already in the market today," she said.
Meanwhile, a World Health Organization official has been visiting the Silicon Valley tech giants this week to express concerns over the spread of misinformation about the coronavirus on social media.
Standing outside Google's Mountain View headquarters, Andrew Pattison had this warning: "The spread of misinformation, and false information about the virus itself is spread faster than the virus, and it's got into more people's lives and infected more people than the actual virus itself."
Image copyright Getty ImagesImage captionMountain View, California - home to Google HQ
Examples include people falsely claiming that eating garlic or taking vitamin C could ward off the disease, or changing credible websites such as that of the Canadian Health Ministry to insert false information about schools which had been affected by the coronavirus.
But Mr Pattinson said there had been useful conversations with the tech firms, and Google had acted to remove misinformation from search results about the virus and replace it with content from reliable organisations such as the WHO.
What is clear is that the coronavirus is going to have a major impact on many technology firms this year. Some will be trying to work out how to keep fragile supply chains intact as components from China become sparse.
For others – notably the social media giants – the threat is of damage to their reputations if they are seen as the purveyors of panic and the channels for misinformation.
Copyright © 2020 BBC. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites.
Share this with EmailShare this with FacebookShare this with TwitterShare this with WhatsappImage caption Even at the Samsung event in San Francisco, the coronavirus loomed large
It was the week when the mobile phone industry's biggest annual trade show was called off over fears about the spread of the coronavirus.
On the Tech Tent podcast this week, we look at the fallout from the cancellation of Mobile World Congress - and ask whether social media has played a positive or negative role in helping people understand the threat posed by the virus.
- Listen to the latest Tech Tent podcast on BBC Sounds
- Listen live every Friday at 15:00 GMT on the BBC World Service
We've been in California this week - the podcast was recorded from the studios of KQED in San Francisco - and we've watched as the tech industry here has tried to get to grips with the threat posed by the coronavirus.
At the beginning of the week, while major players like Ericsson and LG had pulled out of MWC, the general mood seemed to be that the show would go ahead.
We took a trip across the Bay Bridge to Berkeley in search of some expertise.
Fear spreads faster than infection
There we found Dr Lee Riley, professor of infectious diseases and vaccinology at the University of California - a man who has spent his career studying epidemics, including a spell at the World Health Organization.
He was surprisingly sanguine about the coronavirus, pointing out that common-or-garden influenza was far more deadly, though he said he understood that uncertainty about the nature of the disease was bound to make people fearful.
Image caption Constant updates on the virus "feed into some of the anxiety"
But he said a 24/7 news culture and the rise of social media made that fear spread faster than the virus itself - especially as the coronavirus was being diagnosed far more rapidly than Sars was 20 years ago.
"They do the diagnosis, and then we hear about the news of the diagnosis right away throughout the world instantaneously. They're constantly getting updates on this... and I think that feeds into some of the anxiety that people have."
Social media was giving people partial information, but not all the facts, and that magnified their concerns.
He seemed surprised when we told him there was talk of cancelling Mobile World Congress. He said that would be an "over-reaction". Even if people were attending the show from China, he said, "we have new ways to diagnose these types of infections very quickly and accurately so that shouldn't be a concern."
Feeling the heat at Samsung
The following day, the mobile industry's market leader Samsung was launching its latest devices in San Francisco.
On our way into the event – which, like MWC, had attracted visitors from around the world – we had to walk past a temperature sensor to screen us for fever, a symptom of the coronavirus.
Inside, there were plentiful supplies of face masks and hand sanitiser.
Image caption Temperature sensors like this one a the Samsung event are being used across the globe
Then we got to see a spectacular show where the flagship Galaxy S20, now with 5G across all its versions, was unveiled.
Having been under pressure from China's Huawei, which seemed to be leading the way on camera innovation, Samsung showed off a combined optical and digital 100x zoom which allowed the phone to pick out the Palace of Fine Arts where the event was taking place from a vantage point miles away, overlooking the Golden Gate Bridge.
The star of the show, however, was Samsung's second folding phone the Galaxy Z Flip, a smaller and far more elegant device than last year's Galaxy Fold, even though the $1,380 (£1,058) price tag seems a bit steep just to be able to slip it into your jeans pocket.
Video captionWATCH: Rory Cellan-Jones and Zoe Thomas puzzle out the Z Flip phone
This was the second time Samsung had held its major event of the year before Mobile World Congress, previously the launch pad for its new Galaxy phones.
Disappointment and disinformation
That move looked even smarter the next day, when the news came through that MWC had been cancelled. That leaves its biggest Android rival Huawei with no venue to show off its latest devices - it had been planning to make a big splash in Barcelona.
The leading analyst Carolina Milanesi of Creative Strategies, who is based in Silicon Valley, told us she was disappointed to be missing the show – an opportunity to get a global perspective on the industry.
She made the point that a lot of the action takes place behind the scenes, with senior executives meeting and making deals. But the impact on the industry of cancelling the show was as nothing compared to the wider damage the virus could cause.
"It is nowhere near the impact that the coronavirus could actually have from a manufacturing perspective, from delaying products to lack of availability of products that are already in the market today," she said.
Meanwhile, a World Health Organization official has been visiting the Silicon Valley tech giants this week to express concerns over the spread of misinformation about the coronavirus on social media.
Standing outside Google's Mountain View headquarters, Andrew Pattison had this warning: "The spread of misinformation, and false information about the virus itself is spread faster than the virus, and it's got into more people's lives and infected more people than the actual virus itself."
Image copyright Getty ImagesImage captionMountain View, California - home to Google HQ
Examples include people falsely claiming that eating garlic or taking vitamin C could ward off the disease, or changing credible websites such as that of the Canadian Health Ministry to insert false information about schools which had been affected by the coronavirus.
But Mr Pattinson said there had been useful conversations with the tech firms, and Google had acted to remove misinformation from search results about the virus and replace it with content from reliable organisations such as the WHO.
What is clear is that the coronavirus is going to have a major impact on many technology firms this year. Some will be trying to work out how to keep fragile supply chains intact as components from China become sparse.
For others – notably the social media giants – the threat is of damage to their reputations if they are seen as the purveyors of panic and the channels for misinformation.
Copyright © 2020 BBC. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites.
Coronavirus has a second wave of economic chaos, disrupting business supply chains and revenue - ABC News
Posted 7h
As many factories in China remain closed, coronavirus is disrupting supply chains and hurting business revenue.(AP: Kin Cheung)
Share
Australia is one of the countries worst impacted by the coronavirus outbreak, with China's lockdown and travel bans expected to cost the economy billions.
Key points:
Now, as many factories in China remain closed, the virus is having a second wave of economic chaos, disrupting business supply chains and hurting revenue.
Australian-listed companies and major global retailers that rely on stock from China — or operate in China — are already feeling the impact and warn the situation could worsen in the coming months.
Major Australian retailers Harvey Norman and JB Hi-Fi fear there may be a delay in shipments from China to Australia of electronic parts and other goods.
Retail veteran Gerry Harvey said his Harvey Norman stores had seen delays in their supply chains in recent weeks.
JB Hi-Fi chief executive Richard Murray last week said if there was a supply shortage from the coronavirus outbreak in China, it would be evident within four to six weeks.
JB Hi-Fi chief executive Richard Murray says a supply shortage from the coronavirus outbreak in China will be evident within four to six weeks.(ABC News: Stephen Letts)Queensland business delays as it orders from China
The general manager of Brisbane-based Franklyn Blinds, Michael Ford, told ABC News that factories in China have remained closed since Chinese New Year (January 25) and the company had not been able to supply hundreds of its Australian customers with plantation shutters.
He said while the company sold a variety of other products that had not been impacted, these shutters were custom-made for customers locally, with supplies that come from Chinese factories.
"Our business is huge, and structurally sound, but the longer this goes on the more difficult it's going to become," Mr Ford said.
Mr Ford said since the problem was impacting companies Australia-wide, customers of competing businesses would be facing similar problems.
He said given constant and widespread media coverage about the virus, customers had been understanding.
"I had expected more backlash from customers than what we got," Mr Ford said.
Fashion and beauty industry shut down some operations
A number of major companies that operate in China and/or rely on supplies from China are warning there may be delays on stock if the virus spreads further and lockdowns and travel bans persist.
Fashion retailer H&M told ABC News it did not expect coronavirus to lead to major delays of stock in Australia, "but if the virus continues to spread, that can change".
Apple Australia referred ABC News to a statement saying Apple Inc had extended its 42 retail store closures in China until February 15 as the coronavirus continues to spread, and this would hurt its sales.
A spokeswoman for Samsung Australia said the company did not see "any potential availability issues, but we continue to monitor the situation".
Nike Inc announced about half of NIKE-owned stores had been temporarily closed and this could have a "material impact on our operations in Greater China".
Adidas has also closed a significant number of its 500 stores in China and said it was "experiencing a negative impact".
A note from Swiss investment bank UBS on February 3 said the coronavirus could pose a problem for the entire beauty business.
French beauty giant Sephora has already stopped offering custom makeovers in hundreds of its stores as a precautionary measure to protect customers and staff from the virus.
Wine, vitamins trade also affected
A number of Australian-listed companies have slashed their profit forecasts off the back of the virus.
Treasury Wine Estates, which produces the Penfolds wine brand, said in a statement to the ASX last week that "while at this stage it is too early to assess financial impacts" of coronavirus, if it is sustained, it will impact earnings.
Vitamins group Blackmores went into a trading halt on the ASX last week, ahead of its half-year results due later this month.
Vitamins group Blackmores cited the impact of coronavirus on both its Chinese and Australian business.(ABC News: Emily Stewart)
It has cited the impact of coronavirus on both its Chinese and Australian business.
On the one hand, the virus has led to a rise in demand over the past couple of weeks, with fearful Chinese consumers rushing out to buy vitamins.
But the downside has been the ban on Chinese tourists to Australia, which has caused a fall in the so-called "suitcase trade", where tens of thousands of tourists stock up on vitamins before taking them back home to China.
In the biotech industry, Cochlear last week slashed its full-year profit forecast for the 2020 financial year by up to $30 million, due to the impact of coronavirus in China, where the company operates.
Chief executive Dig Howitt said hospitals across greater China were deferring surgery, including procedures for Cochlear implants.
"All elective surgeries are being delayed and many hospitals are not taking appointments for new surgeries," Mr Howitt told investors.
When the Chinese students and tourists stop coming…
Most Australian economists predict Australia's gross domestic product (GDP) will be hit from the impacts of reduced student and tourist numbers.
Reserve Bank boss Philip Lowe predicted coronavirus will be worse than SARS for Australian economy.
He said coronavirus was having a major impact on education, tourism and business deals.
Ratings agency Moody's has warned Australian universities will be harder hit than those of any other country because of the relatively high proportion of international students.
Phil Honeywood has been appointed to lead the government-industry body charged with coordinating the education sector response to the epidemic.
He told ABC News travel restrictions could cut, in a worst-case scenario, $6 billion to $8 billion from education exports in the first half of the year.
Education-related travel services, which includes overseas students' tuition fees and living expenses, was in 2017-18 Australia's third-biggest export behind iron ore and coal.
International education is a $34 billion sector for Australia, and in 2018-19 Chinese students brought in an estimated $12.1 billion.(Reuters: Jason Reed)
International education was a $34 billion sector for Australia in 2018-19, and Chinese students brought in an estimated $12.1 billion that year.
But now that students have stopped coming due to travel bans, he expects a ripple impact, with accommodation providers, cafes and restaurants all impacted.
"You only need to walk around RMIT [University] and Box Hill [in Melbourne], which have a very large Chinese community — all their restaurants and hair beauty salons that used to be busy are empty," he said.
Travel agents, airlines brace for more pain
Flight Centre founder and chief executive Graham Turner said while it was too early to predict the virus's overall impact, it had already adversely affected the company's small corporate travel operations in China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia, worth about $650 million.
"We can mitigate some of those risks, but it is going to have a negative impact," he told ABC News.
He said it took three months for the company to bounce back after SARS, but warned the travel industry may generally suffer if people are not confident to head overseas.
A Virgin Australia spokeswoman said since the announcement of a ban on Chinese tour groups to overseas destinations, Virgin Australia had seen an impact on group bookings.
Earlier this month it announced the withdrawal of its Hong Kong services.
"We are monitoring the situation closely from both a safety and load factor perspective."
Qantas has suspended all flights to mainland China. The airline said it would halt its services from Sydney to Beijing and Sydney to Shanghai until March 29.
Qantas chief executive Alan Joyce told RN Breakfast last week that it was hard to put an estimate on the cost, but that China represented about 2 per cent of its international business, which was less profitable than its domestic business.
But Mr Joyce did warn there would be a "knock-on effect with people to the tourism industry, to the economy".
Posted 7h
Posted 7h
Share
Australia is one of the countries worst impacted by the coronavirus outbreak, with China's lockdown and travel bans expected to cost the economy billions.
Key points:
- Major retailers that rely on stock from China are under pressure as coronavirus spreads, warning there may be delays
- A number of Australian-listed companies have slashed their profit forecasts off the back of the virus
- Travel agents and airlines warn there is no doubt the virus will have a negative impact, but just how catastrophic is unclear
Now, as many factories in China remain closed, the virus is having a second wave of economic chaos, disrupting business supply chains and hurting revenue.
Australian-listed companies and major global retailers that rely on stock from China — or operate in China — are already feeling the impact and warn the situation could worsen in the coming months.
Major Australian retailers Harvey Norman and JB Hi-Fi fear there may be a delay in shipments from China to Australia of electronic parts and other goods.
Retail veteran Gerry Harvey said his Harvey Norman stores had seen delays in their supply chains in recent weeks.
JB Hi-Fi chief executive Richard Murray last week said if there was a supply shortage from the coronavirus outbreak in China, it would be evident within four to six weeks.
The general manager of Brisbane-based Franklyn Blinds, Michael Ford, told ABC News that factories in China have remained closed since Chinese New Year (January 25) and the company had not been able to supply hundreds of its Australian customers with plantation shutters.
He said while the company sold a variety of other products that had not been impacted, these shutters were custom-made for customers locally, with supplies that come from Chinese factories.
"Our business is huge, and structurally sound, but the longer this goes on the more difficult it's going to become," Mr Ford said.
Mr Ford said since the problem was impacting companies Australia-wide, customers of competing businesses would be facing similar problems.
He said given constant and widespread media coverage about the virus, customers had been understanding.
"I had expected more backlash from customers than what we got," Mr Ford said.
Fashion and beauty industry shut down some operations
A number of major companies that operate in China and/or rely on supplies from China are warning there may be delays on stock if the virus spreads further and lockdowns and travel bans persist.
Fashion retailer H&M told ABC News it did not expect coronavirus to lead to major delays of stock in Australia, "but if the virus continues to spread, that can change".
Apple Australia referred ABC News to a statement saying Apple Inc had extended its 42 retail store closures in China until February 15 as the coronavirus continues to spread, and this would hurt its sales.
A spokeswoman for Samsung Australia said the company did not see "any potential availability issues, but we continue to monitor the situation".
Nike Inc announced about half of NIKE-owned stores had been temporarily closed and this could have a "material impact on our operations in Greater China".
Adidas has also closed a significant number of its 500 stores in China and said it was "experiencing a negative impact".
A note from Swiss investment bank UBS on February 3 said the coronavirus could pose a problem for the entire beauty business.
French beauty giant Sephora has already stopped offering custom makeovers in hundreds of its stores as a precautionary measure to protect customers and staff from the virus.
Wine, vitamins trade also affected
A number of Australian-listed companies have slashed their profit forecasts off the back of the virus.
Treasury Wine Estates, which produces the Penfolds wine brand, said in a statement to the ASX last week that "while at this stage it is too early to assess financial impacts" of coronavirus, if it is sustained, it will impact earnings.
Vitamins group Blackmores went into a trading halt on the ASX last week, ahead of its half-year results due later this month.
It has cited the impact of coronavirus on both its Chinese and Australian business.
On the one hand, the virus has led to a rise in demand over the past couple of weeks, with fearful Chinese consumers rushing out to buy vitamins.
But the downside has been the ban on Chinese tourists to Australia, which has caused a fall in the so-called "suitcase trade", where tens of thousands of tourists stock up on vitamins before taking them back home to China.
In the biotech industry, Cochlear last week slashed its full-year profit forecast for the 2020 financial year by up to $30 million, due to the impact of coronavirus in China, where the company operates.
Chief executive Dig Howitt said hospitals across greater China were deferring surgery, including procedures for Cochlear implants.
"All elective surgeries are being delayed and many hospitals are not taking appointments for new surgeries," Mr Howitt told investors.
When the Chinese students and tourists stop coming…
Most Australian economists predict Australia's gross domestic product (GDP) will be hit from the impacts of reduced student and tourist numbers.
Reserve Bank boss Philip Lowe predicted coronavirus will be worse than SARS for Australian economy.
He said coronavirus was having a major impact on education, tourism and business deals.
Ratings agency Moody's has warned Australian universities will be harder hit than those of any other country because of the relatively high proportion of international students.
Phil Honeywood has been appointed to lead the government-industry body charged with coordinating the education sector response to the epidemic.
He told ABC News travel restrictions could cut, in a worst-case scenario, $6 billion to $8 billion from education exports in the first half of the year.
Education-related travel services, which includes overseas students' tuition fees and living expenses, was in 2017-18 Australia's third-biggest export behind iron ore and coal.
International education was a $34 billion sector for Australia in 2018-19, and Chinese students brought in an estimated $12.1 billion that year.
But now that students have stopped coming due to travel bans, he expects a ripple impact, with accommodation providers, cafes and restaurants all impacted.
"You only need to walk around RMIT [University] and Box Hill [in Melbourne], which have a very large Chinese community — all their restaurants and hair beauty salons that used to be busy are empty," he said.
Travel agents, airlines brace for more pain
Flight Centre founder and chief executive Graham Turner said while it was too early to predict the virus's overall impact, it had already adversely affected the company's small corporate travel operations in China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia, worth about $650 million.
"We can mitigate some of those risks, but it is going to have a negative impact," he told ABC News.
He said it took three months for the company to bounce back after SARS, but warned the travel industry may generally suffer if people are not confident to head overseas.
A Virgin Australia spokeswoman said since the announcement of a ban on Chinese tour groups to overseas destinations, Virgin Australia had seen an impact on group bookings.
Earlier this month it announced the withdrawal of its Hong Kong services.
"We are monitoring the situation closely from both a safety and load factor perspective."
Qantas has suspended all flights to mainland China. The airline said it would halt its services from Sydney to Beijing and Sydney to Shanghai until March 29.
Qantas chief executive Alan Joyce told RN Breakfast last week that it was hard to put an estimate on the cost, but that China represented about 2 per cent of its international business, which was less profitable than its domestic business.
But Mr Joyce did warn there would be a "knock-on effect with people to the tourism industry, to the economy".
Posted 7h
Why disasters like the bushfires and coronavirus can turbocharge GDP - ABC News
Posted 8h
We've already been hearing how our own disaster may help us down the track.(Reuters)
Share
Thomas Carlyle, a 19th-century historian, first coined the phrase. Economics, he argued, was the "dismal science".
He had a point. Most economists are either obsessed with "black swan events", on the lookout for "unknown unknowns", or constantly searching for the catalyst to the next big crash.
Carlyle was particularly incensed with claims by economist Thomas Malthus that population would always grow faster than food production, thereby ensuring a future of poverty and starvation for humanity.
Mind you, Carlyle was a big fan of slavery and lobbied for its reintroduction into the West Indies as a way to fix the economy. So, his track record as a social scientist is sketchy to say the least.
But there's one thing Carlyle overlooked. Even the most dismal practitioners of the dismal arts often extract joy from plumbing the depths of despair.
When it comes to mainstream economists, there's nothing they enjoy more than a good old-fashioned disaster.
It's here the dark clouds evaporate, leaving nothing but silver linings.
Cast your minds back just a little. Remember Fukushima? Economists across the globe were quick to point out that the disaster may help lift Japan out of its ongoing economic slump.
How? Rebuilding Japan's power sector and rehabilitating the toxic countryside, not to mention reconstruction from the devastating losses wreaked by the tsunami, would boost activity.
How about the Christchurch earthquakes? Again, they were banging on about how all those house rebuilds and construction jobs would turbocharge GDP.
Now, finally, we have our own and, already, we've been hearing just how this may help us down the track.
If you believe most of our mainstream economists, including the Reserve Bank, the bushfires — while a terrible tragedy — will provide a boost later on.
Take this argument to its logical and ludicrous extreme and you could argue we could be the poster-child economy for a new and exciting growth model.
If we are subject to increasingly horrendous fire seasons, according to this perverse logic, we might just be able to tap into a new economic growth paradigm.
What's wrong with GDP?
The idea that there are benefits to a disaster like our fire crisis tells you there's something horribly wrong with the way we measure economic growth and performance.
As Victoria University's Janine Dixon pointed out recently on The Conversation, measuring the economic impact of disasters through GDP is a deeply flawed strategy. As she points out, in cases like these, GDP captures short-term growth but ignores many of the longer-term costs.
For a start, what about all the pain and suffering, all the heartache and trauma from communities stretching from Queensland right across NSW, Gippsland and South Australia and various parts of Tasmania and Western Australia?
For those caught in the inferno, the psychological impact and physical injuries will take years to play out, and will only be measured through a loss of output from those individuals. But increased health care, in the immediate aftermath of the fires, will be counted as a positive.
Even the accounting is flawed. GDP measures productive activity. It measures the changes in our output. But it doesn't put a value on what we already have.
It might well be a good way of measuring how the coronavirus will impact our economy in the next few months, as tourism with China drops and as China's economy stalls, but when it comes to catastrophes like the recent bushfires, it's hopeless.
When fires consume hard assets — the houses, the infrastructure, the businesses, the livestock — there is no recorded loss of value. It instead records the loss of income those assets produce.
But when those houses and infrastructure are replaced, that's considered economic activity and output, and so that is lodged as a gain. And that's why you'll repeatedly hear in coming months how our economy has been given a lift by the rebuilding efforts.
What is ignored is that all that effort, investment and time could have been devoted to something far more constructive and positive than simply replacing what we already had.
These are models outputs and not economist forecasts.(Suppled: UBS, Haver)Coronavirus to the rescue?
When it comes to "black swan" events, they don't come much darker than the current coronavirus, or COVID-19 as it's now called.
Not that anyone seems particularly perturbed by it, at least on financial markets. That's despite predictions that it could put our economy into reverse in the March quarter.
Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe last week admitted it was having an immediate impact, particularly on the education sector, as almost half the usual 200,000 Chinese students were prevented from starting their courses here.
But, unlike many of his professional market-based counterparts, the RBA boss remained positive about the future.
"There are still a lot of people getting infected but the infection rate is coming down, so if that continues, I think we can have reasonable optimism that the number of cases has stabilised," he told the Australia-Canada Economic Leadership Forum.
In any case, he reckoned Beijing could be forced to inject even more stimulus into its economy and that would be good for us. Ah yes. Silver linings.
Others reckon the RBA could be the one providing the stimulus. UBS modelling based on the 2002 SARS outbreak suggests that if the China crisis results in a global downturn in manufacturing, this will hit us, given we are a tiny, trade-exposed nation.
That could prompt the RBA to jettison hopes that we are in the midst of a "gentle turning point" and start slashing interest rates.
At this point it is difficult to get a handle on just how accurate the information flowing out of China is regarding infections and fatalities, let alone the economic impact.
But Alibaba, China's biggest company, on Friday signalled that it will suffer a significant earnings downturn this quarter, the first in its history.
Chief financial officer Maggie Wu told analysts that while this would be a one-off event, the virus outbreak had shut down almost two thirds of the economy and the company was hurting.
Still, that did little to dent the enthusiasm on Wall Street, which ended the week a touch lower, just off record highs.
Nothing dismal about that.
Posted 8h
Share
Thomas Carlyle, a 19th-century historian, first coined the phrase. Economics, he argued, was the "dismal science".
He had a point. Most economists are either obsessed with "black swan events", on the lookout for "unknown unknowns", or constantly searching for the catalyst to the next big crash.
Carlyle was particularly incensed with claims by economist Thomas Malthus that population would always grow faster than food production, thereby ensuring a future of poverty and starvation for humanity.
Mind you, Carlyle was a big fan of slavery and lobbied for its reintroduction into the West Indies as a way to fix the economy. So, his track record as a social scientist is sketchy to say the least.
But there's one thing Carlyle overlooked. Even the most dismal practitioners of the dismal arts often extract joy from plumbing the depths of despair.
When it comes to mainstream economists, there's nothing they enjoy more than a good old-fashioned disaster.
It's here the dark clouds evaporate, leaving nothing but silver linings.
Cast your minds back just a little. Remember Fukushima? Economists across the globe were quick to point out that the disaster may help lift Japan out of its ongoing economic slump.
How? Rebuilding Japan's power sector and rehabilitating the toxic countryside, not to mention reconstruction from the devastating losses wreaked by the tsunami, would boost activity.
How about the Christchurch earthquakes? Again, they were banging on about how all those house rebuilds and construction jobs would turbocharge GDP.
Now, finally, we have our own and, already, we've been hearing just how this may help us down the track.
If you believe most of our mainstream economists, including the Reserve Bank, the bushfires — while a terrible tragedy — will provide a boost later on.
Take this argument to its logical and ludicrous extreme and you could argue we could be the poster-child economy for a new and exciting growth model.
If we are subject to increasingly horrendous fire seasons, according to this perverse logic, we might just be able to tap into a new economic growth paradigm.
What's wrong with GDP?
The idea that there are benefits to a disaster like our fire crisis tells you there's something horribly wrong with the way we measure economic growth and performance.
As Victoria University's Janine Dixon pointed out recently on The Conversation, measuring the economic impact of disasters through GDP is a deeply flawed strategy. As she points out, in cases like these, GDP captures short-term growth but ignores many of the longer-term costs.
For a start, what about all the pain and suffering, all the heartache and trauma from communities stretching from Queensland right across NSW, Gippsland and South Australia and various parts of Tasmania and Western Australia?
For those caught in the inferno, the psychological impact and physical injuries will take years to play out, and will only be measured through a loss of output from those individuals. But increased health care, in the immediate aftermath of the fires, will be counted as a positive.
Even the accounting is flawed. GDP measures productive activity. It measures the changes in our output. But it doesn't put a value on what we already have.
It might well be a good way of measuring how the coronavirus will impact our economy in the next few months, as tourism with China drops and as China's economy stalls, but when it comes to catastrophes like the recent bushfires, it's hopeless.
When fires consume hard assets — the houses, the infrastructure, the businesses, the livestock — there is no recorded loss of value. It instead records the loss of income those assets produce.
But when those houses and infrastructure are replaced, that's considered economic activity and output, and so that is lodged as a gain. And that's why you'll repeatedly hear in coming months how our economy has been given a lift by the rebuilding efforts.
What is ignored is that all that effort, investment and time could have been devoted to something far more constructive and positive than simply replacing what we already had.
When it comes to "black swan" events, they don't come much darker than the current coronavirus, or COVID-19 as it's now called.
Not that anyone seems particularly perturbed by it, at least on financial markets. That's despite predictions that it could put our economy into reverse in the March quarter.
Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe last week admitted it was having an immediate impact, particularly on the education sector, as almost half the usual 200,000 Chinese students were prevented from starting their courses here.
But, unlike many of his professional market-based counterparts, the RBA boss remained positive about the future.
"There are still a lot of people getting infected but the infection rate is coming down, so if that continues, I think we can have reasonable optimism that the number of cases has stabilised," he told the Australia-Canada Economic Leadership Forum.
In any case, he reckoned Beijing could be forced to inject even more stimulus into its economy and that would be good for us. Ah yes. Silver linings.
Others reckon the RBA could be the one providing the stimulus. UBS modelling based on the 2002 SARS outbreak suggests that if the China crisis results in a global downturn in manufacturing, this will hit us, given we are a tiny, trade-exposed nation.
That could prompt the RBA to jettison hopes that we are in the midst of a "gentle turning point" and start slashing interest rates.
At this point it is difficult to get a handle on just how accurate the information flowing out of China is regarding infections and fatalities, let alone the economic impact.
But Alibaba, China's biggest company, on Friday signalled that it will suffer a significant earnings downturn this quarter, the first in its history.
Chief financial officer Maggie Wu told analysts that while this would be a one-off event, the virus outbreak had shut down almost two thirds of the economy and the company was hurting.
Still, that did little to dent the enthusiasm on Wall Street, which ended the week a touch lower, just off record highs.
Nothing dismal about that.
COVID-19 threat could erode with time just as with H1N1, say experts
A medical worker in protective suit checks a patient's records at Jinyintan hospital in Wuhan, the epicentre of the novel coronavirus outbreak, in Hubei province, China. (Photo: China Daily via REUTERS)Bookmark
SINGAPORE: The outbreak of COVID-19 infections that started in Wuhan, China and has now spread to almost 30 other countries including Singapore could follow the same trajectory seen in the H1N1 influenza outbreak in Mexico just over a decade ago. It could fade into something less sinister later on, said infectious disease experts.
In early March 2009, Mexico experienced outbreaks of respiratory illness and increased reports of patients with flu-like symptoms in several areas of the country.
This new human H1N1 strain, which originated from swine flu in pigs, swept across the world and by the World Health Organization's (WHO) estimate, was responsible for more than 18,000 deaths globally in the 2009 pandemic.
JUST ANOTHER FLU BUG
WHO declared the virus a public health emergency on Apr 24, 2009. Four days later, Singapore raised its Disease Outbreak Response (DORSCON) from Green to Yellow. This was raised to Orange on Apr 30, when the WHO raised its pandemic alert level from phase 4 to phase 5.
But it was not until May 26, 2009 that Singapore saw its first case of H1N1, 15 days after the Ministry of Health (MOH) revised the DORSCON alert back down to Yellow. A 22-year-old undergraduate returning from New York had developed symptoms on the flight and later tested positive for the virus.
The outbreak in Singapore peaked in Aug 2009, and the country saw 18 H1N1 fatalities in that year. By the time the DORSCON alert was lowered from yellow to green on Feb 21, 2010, about 415,000 people islandwide had been infected with the virus, with most experiencing mild illness.
“Everyone then realised that it was just another flu bug. The initial deaths in Mexico were not seen in Singapore. Very surprising,” said Dr Leong Hoe Nam, an infectious disease specialist at Mount Elizabeth Novena Hospital.
“Now when you revisit Mexico, the same virus circulates there, but it doesn’t kill that much.” This is because the threat of H1N1 eroded over the years, he added.
And the same is likely to happen for COVID-19, said experts CNA spoke to.
VIRUSES BECOME MILDER OVER TIME: EXPERTS
Professor Tikki Pang, visiting professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy under the National University of Singapore (NUS) said the coronavirus causing the COVID-19 outbreak is likely to stabilise and eventually disappear from public consciousness.
“This is the historical pattern of past pandemics, and happens because the virus ‘burns out’ and runs out of people to infect as a result of many factors,” said Prof Pang, citing warmer temperatures, better public awareness and public health measures.
“There is a possibility that the virus could mutate into something more ‘sinister’, (that) spreads faster (or causes) more severe disease, but, so far, we have not seen any evidence of this happening.”
According to Dr Leong, there are four circulating coronaviruses that cause the common cold, and one of them periodically causes severe pneumonia.
“I believe they came into existence much like the current COVID-19. It killed many people and virology or technology was not sufficiently established then to identify the cause of the illness. But it became attenuated with time,” said Dr Leong.
“COVID-19 will go the same way. What we need is time for it to accumulate mutations, and it will become milder.”
READ: How China tests for COVID-19
According to Dr Leong, there is a “natural tendency” for viruses to mutate to something milder.
If the virus is too pathogenic and it kills its host, it is unable to continue spreading. But if it is mild, it can continue to propagate and pass on to other individuals, eventually picking up mutations that reduce the virus' ability to cause disease, said Dr Leong.
He noted that increasing awareness of H1N1 treatment and availability of vaccines also contributed to the threat fading.
READ: From manufacturing to retail, Singapore firms brace for supply issues amid COVID-19 outbreak
According to experts, H1N1 is currently a dominant flu strain in Singapore, although this may vary between seasons, and flu vaccines provide immunity against it. Countries in the region face a similar situation - Taiwan's Centre for Disease Control said earlier this month that 56 patients there had died of H1N1 flu virus-affected respiratory failure in the past three months.
In the years following the 2009 pandemic, H1N1 became less common globally, but has been on the increase in recent years, said Professor Clarence Tam from the Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, NUS.
"This is likely because, after the pandemic, many people were infected with H1N1 and developed immunity against this influenza strain, so the virus couldn't spread as easily," said Prof Tam.
"But we know that immunity against influenza is short-lived, and as the level of immunity drops in the population, more people are now becoming infected with this strain again."
Dr Leong said: “It becomes another flu bug. And it helps with the fact that Singaporeans cannot distinguish between flu and the common cold, making the concept of flu in Singapore much milder.
“People soon became complacent of H1N1. But, some lethality maintained. If there is a bad case of influenza in the intensive care (unit), it would usually be a H1N1 (case). But overall, we see less and less of a problem.”
TRANSMISSION OF COVID-19, H1N1 SIMILAR
Speaking at a press conference on Friday (Feb 14), Minister for National Development Lawrence Wong had said that it is “clearly emerging” that COVID-19 is different from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and has more similarities with H1N1.
“The transmission mechanism of COVID-19 is different from SARS. In fact, the transmission mechanism is closer to H1N1 or influenza,” said Mr Wong.
Researchers at the National Centre for Infectious Diseases (NCID) have confirmed this, he added. Researchers found that, like influenza, COVID-19 is infectious when symptoms are mild.
Because of this transmission mechanism, COVID-19, like the flu, can spread “quite quickly”, said Mr Wong.
“With our mild symptoms, we sometimes let our guard down - we continue going out even though we don’t really feel well, and that’s how the virus transmits,” he added.
Mr Wong also said it was “a matter of time” before “a lot of people around the world” will be infected with COVID-19.
Citing the widespread community transmission seen in the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, Mr Wong said: “We’re not saying that this will happen for COVID-19. It’s a different disease than H1N1 so the patterns of transmission and the number of people contracting the disease will be different,” he said.
"But because the transmission patterns are similar to H1N1, we should be prepared for a scenario where you get wider transmission around the world.”
Prof Tam stressed that even if the risk of mortality from a virus is low, it can still cause a large number of deaths if it spreads easily, citing the current COVID-19 outbreak as an example.
“The available data indicate that this new virus is not as deadly as SARS, but spreads much more readily from person to person. Consequently, the number of reported deaths has already surpassed deaths from SARS in less than two months,” he said.
“The same applies for influenza viruses. Even though the proportion of all influenza cases that succumb to the disease is low, an estimated 300,000-500,000 people worldwide die each year from influenza.”
Adding that it is “difficult to predict” whether the COVID-19 will take the same route as the H1N1 pandemic, Prof Tam said: “The concern is that if current efforts to contain the virus aren’t ultimately enough to stamp out human transmission, it could spread rapidly across the globe causing many more hospitalisations and deaths before a vaccine can be developed or enough immunity builds up in the population to bring the epidemic under control.”
A medical worker in protective suit checks a patient's records at Jinyintan hospital in Wuhan, the epicentre of the novel coronavirus outbreak, in Hubei province, China. (Photo: China Daily via REUTERS)Bookmark
SINGAPORE: The outbreak of COVID-19 infections that started in Wuhan, China and has now spread to almost 30 other countries including Singapore could follow the same trajectory seen in the H1N1 influenza outbreak in Mexico just over a decade ago. It could fade into something less sinister later on, said infectious disease experts.
In early March 2009, Mexico experienced outbreaks of respiratory illness and increased reports of patients with flu-like symptoms in several areas of the country.
This new human H1N1 strain, which originated from swine flu in pigs, swept across the world and by the World Health Organization's (WHO) estimate, was responsible for more than 18,000 deaths globally in the 2009 pandemic.
JUST ANOTHER FLU BUG
WHO declared the virus a public health emergency on Apr 24, 2009. Four days later, Singapore raised its Disease Outbreak Response (DORSCON) from Green to Yellow. This was raised to Orange on Apr 30, when the WHO raised its pandemic alert level from phase 4 to phase 5.
But it was not until May 26, 2009 that Singapore saw its first case of H1N1, 15 days after the Ministry of Health (MOH) revised the DORSCON alert back down to Yellow. A 22-year-old undergraduate returning from New York had developed symptoms on the flight and later tested positive for the virus.
The outbreak in Singapore peaked in Aug 2009, and the country saw 18 H1N1 fatalities in that year. By the time the DORSCON alert was lowered from yellow to green on Feb 21, 2010, about 415,000 people islandwide had been infected with the virus, with most experiencing mild illness.
“Everyone then realised that it was just another flu bug. The initial deaths in Mexico were not seen in Singapore. Very surprising,” said Dr Leong Hoe Nam, an infectious disease specialist at Mount Elizabeth Novena Hospital.
“Now when you revisit Mexico, the same virus circulates there, but it doesn’t kill that much.” This is because the threat of H1N1 eroded over the years, he added.
And the same is likely to happen for COVID-19, said experts CNA spoke to.
VIRUSES BECOME MILDER OVER TIME: EXPERTS
Professor Tikki Pang, visiting professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy under the National University of Singapore (NUS) said the coronavirus causing the COVID-19 outbreak is likely to stabilise and eventually disappear from public consciousness.
“This is the historical pattern of past pandemics, and happens because the virus ‘burns out’ and runs out of people to infect as a result of many factors,” said Prof Pang, citing warmer temperatures, better public awareness and public health measures.
“There is a possibility that the virus could mutate into something more ‘sinister’, (that) spreads faster (or causes) more severe disease, but, so far, we have not seen any evidence of this happening.”
According to Dr Leong, there are four circulating coronaviruses that cause the common cold, and one of them periodically causes severe pneumonia.
“I believe they came into existence much like the current COVID-19. It killed many people and virology or technology was not sufficiently established then to identify the cause of the illness. But it became attenuated with time,” said Dr Leong.
“COVID-19 will go the same way. What we need is time for it to accumulate mutations, and it will become milder.”
READ: How China tests for COVID-19
According to Dr Leong, there is a “natural tendency” for viruses to mutate to something milder.
If the virus is too pathogenic and it kills its host, it is unable to continue spreading. But if it is mild, it can continue to propagate and pass on to other individuals, eventually picking up mutations that reduce the virus' ability to cause disease, said Dr Leong.
He noted that increasing awareness of H1N1 treatment and availability of vaccines also contributed to the threat fading.
READ: From manufacturing to retail, Singapore firms brace for supply issues amid COVID-19 outbreak
According to experts, H1N1 is currently a dominant flu strain in Singapore, although this may vary between seasons, and flu vaccines provide immunity against it. Countries in the region face a similar situation - Taiwan's Centre for Disease Control said earlier this month that 56 patients there had died of H1N1 flu virus-affected respiratory failure in the past three months.
In the years following the 2009 pandemic, H1N1 became less common globally, but has been on the increase in recent years, said Professor Clarence Tam from the Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, NUS.
"This is likely because, after the pandemic, many people were infected with H1N1 and developed immunity against this influenza strain, so the virus couldn't spread as easily," said Prof Tam.
"But we know that immunity against influenza is short-lived, and as the level of immunity drops in the population, more people are now becoming infected with this strain again."
Dr Leong said: “It becomes another flu bug. And it helps with the fact that Singaporeans cannot distinguish between flu and the common cold, making the concept of flu in Singapore much milder.
“People soon became complacent of H1N1. But, some lethality maintained. If there is a bad case of influenza in the intensive care (unit), it would usually be a H1N1 (case). But overall, we see less and less of a problem.”
TRANSMISSION OF COVID-19, H1N1 SIMILAR
Speaking at a press conference on Friday (Feb 14), Minister for National Development Lawrence Wong had said that it is “clearly emerging” that COVID-19 is different from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and has more similarities with H1N1.
“The transmission mechanism of COVID-19 is different from SARS. In fact, the transmission mechanism is closer to H1N1 or influenza,” said Mr Wong.
Researchers at the National Centre for Infectious Diseases (NCID) have confirmed this, he added. Researchers found that, like influenza, COVID-19 is infectious when symptoms are mild.
Because of this transmission mechanism, COVID-19, like the flu, can spread “quite quickly”, said Mr Wong.
“With our mild symptoms, we sometimes let our guard down - we continue going out even though we don’t really feel well, and that’s how the virus transmits,” he added.
Mr Wong also said it was “a matter of time” before “a lot of people around the world” will be infected with COVID-19.
Citing the widespread community transmission seen in the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, Mr Wong said: “We’re not saying that this will happen for COVID-19. It’s a different disease than H1N1 so the patterns of transmission and the number of people contracting the disease will be different,” he said.
"But because the transmission patterns are similar to H1N1, we should be prepared for a scenario where you get wider transmission around the world.”
Prof Tam stressed that even if the risk of mortality from a virus is low, it can still cause a large number of deaths if it spreads easily, citing the current COVID-19 outbreak as an example.
“The available data indicate that this new virus is not as deadly as SARS, but spreads much more readily from person to person. Consequently, the number of reported deaths has already surpassed deaths from SARS in less than two months,” he said.
“The same applies for influenza viruses. Even though the proportion of all influenza cases that succumb to the disease is low, an estimated 300,000-500,000 people worldwide die each year from influenza.”
Adding that it is “difficult to predict” whether the COVID-19 will take the same route as the H1N1 pandemic, Prof Tam said: “The concern is that if current efforts to contain the virus aren’t ultimately enough to stamp out human transmission, it could spread rapidly across the globe causing many more hospitalisations and deaths before a vaccine can be developed or enough immunity builds up in the population to bring the epidemic under control.”
Singapore cuts 2020 GDP forecast to -0.5% to 1.5% due to COVID-19 outbreak
A woman wearing a mask is seen walking at Orchard Road, Singapore on Feb 3. (Photo: Gaya Chandramohan)Bookmark
SINGAPORE: After seeing its economy grow at a decade-low of 0.7 per cent last year, Singapore is expecting possibly even slower growth in 2020 and has downgraded its gross domestic product (GDP) forecast amid concerns about the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak.
Economic growth for this year is expected to come in at around 0.5 per cent, the mid-point of a new estimated range of between -0.5 per cent and 1.5 per cent, said the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) on Monday (Feb 17).
The previous forecast range announced last November was 0.5 per cent to 2.5 per cent.
Singapore has so far confirmed 75 cases of the novel coronavirus, with authorities earlier this month raising the Disease Outbreak Response System Condition (DORSCON) to Orange.
Last week, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong warned that the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak will have a significant impact on the local economy for the next couple of quarters.
READ: COVID-19 to have 'significant' impact on economy, says PM Lee Hsien Loong
MTI said its earlier forecast was premised on a modest pick-up in global growth and a recovery in the global electronics cycle this year.
However, the outbreak of COVID-19 has affected many countries around the world, including Singapore, and is likely to dampen the growth prospects of China and those impacted.
In China, GDP growth in 2020 will likely come in lower than earlier projected due to a pullback in household consumption as a result of the lockdowns and travel restrictions implemented in several major Chinese cities to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus, it said.
Industrial production has also been disrupted due to work stoppages and delays arising from these containment measures, MTI noted in its report.
These will, in turn, have a knock-on impact on regional economies through lower outbound tourism and other import demand from China, as well as disruptions to supply chains, it added.
“Should the COVID-19 outbreak be more widespread, severe and protracted than anticipated, there could be a sharper pullback in global consumption, as well as more prolonged disruptions to global supply chains and production,” the report said.
MTI also cautioned that a sharper-than-expected economic slowdown in China due to the virus outbreak will negatively affect global trade and economic growth.
At the same time, other uncertainties in the global economy remain, such as the US-China trade war and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, it added.
As a result, the outlook for the Singapore economy has weakened since its last review in November, the ministry said, adding that the ongoing COVID-19 situation could impact the local economy through several channels.
First, the outward-oriented sectors, such as manufacturing and wholesale trade, will be affected by the weaker growth outlook in several of Singapore’s key final demand markets, including China.
Firms in these sectors could also be affected by supply chain disruptions arising from prolonged factory closures and labour shortages in China.
READ: Amid fears of 80% revenue loss due to COVID-19 outbreak, restaurants hope for rent rebates
Second, there has been a sharp fall in tourist arrivals, particularly from China, and this has badly affected the local tourism and transport sectors.
Third, domestic consumption is likely to decline as locals cut back on shopping and dining-out activities. This will adversely affect firms in segments such as retail and food services, the ministry noted.
MTI permanent secretary Gabriel Lim said at a press conference that the hit on GDP growth is likely to be felt during the first two quarters of the year, although the impact through these three channels could play out further down the road and will need to be closely watched.
The ministry emphasised that while its latest GDP forecast range includes the possibility of a recession, that is not its central scenario and its baseline view is for the economy to see positive growth at around 0.5 per cent for 2020.
“As the COVID-19 situation is still evolving, there is a significant degree of uncertainty over the length and severity of the outbreak, and hence its overall impact on the Singapore economy,” Mr Lim said.
“MTI will continue to monitor developments and their impact on the Singapore economy closely.”
READ: 'Sufficient room’ within policy band for easing in line with coronavirus economic impact: MAS
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said its monetary policy remains unchanged, as it had highlighted in a statement earlier this month.
The central bank is monitoring developments very closely and its next policy review remains as scheduled in April, its deputy managing director Edward Robinson told reporters.
2019 GROWTH SLOWEST IN A DECADE
MTI’s report on Monday also showed the Singapore economy expanded by 1 per cent year-on-year in the last quarter of 2019, slightly above the Government’s initial estimate of 0.8 per cent and the 0.7 per cent growth in the earlier quarter.
On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annualised basis, growth came in at 0.6 per cent. This is way below the 2.2 per cent expansion in the third quarter, but above the 0.1 per cent flash estimate.
This brings the full-year growth in 2019 to 0.7 per cent, a sharp slowdown from 2018’s 3.4 per cent and hitting the country’s lowest growth since the global financial crisis in 2009.
The manufacturing sector was the biggest laggard last year. It contracted by 1.4 per cent, reversing from 2018’s 7 per cent growth, due to output declines in the electronics, chemicals, precision engineering and transport engineering clusters.
Construction expanded by 2.8 per cent, turning around from the 3.5 per cent contraction in 2018, supported by both public sector and private sector construction works.
The services producing industries also grew by 1.1 per cent, albeit moderating from the 3.4 per cent growth in 2018. Growth largely came from the finance and insurance, other services and business services sectors.
READ: Singapore's exports fall 3.3% in January, growth forecast cut on COVID-19 fears
For this year, there are still expectations for a “modest growth” in the manufacturing sector, although authorities are closely watching for the impact of COVID-19 on clusters, such as electronics, which have been showing some signs of a tentative rebound, said Economic Development Board’s assistant managing director Kelvin Wong.
There are also pockets of relative strength in the Singapore economy, such as the construction sector which is projected to post steady growth given the rebound in construction demand since 2018.
The information and communications sector is also expected to be resilient on account of sustained enterprise demand for IT solutions, MTI said.
Separately on Monday, Enterprise Singapore cut its 2020 forecasts for non-oil domestic exports (NODX) and total merchandise trade, citing likely impact of the novel coronavirus outbreak on its trading partners and lower oil prices.
Both NODX and total merchandise are now expected to come in between -0.5 per cent to 1.5 per cent this year, down from an earlier projection of zero to 2 per cent growth.
A woman wearing a mask is seen walking at Orchard Road, Singapore on Feb 3. (Photo: Gaya Chandramohan)Bookmark
SINGAPORE: After seeing its economy grow at a decade-low of 0.7 per cent last year, Singapore is expecting possibly even slower growth in 2020 and has downgraded its gross domestic product (GDP) forecast amid concerns about the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak.
Economic growth for this year is expected to come in at around 0.5 per cent, the mid-point of a new estimated range of between -0.5 per cent and 1.5 per cent, said the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) on Monday (Feb 17).
The previous forecast range announced last November was 0.5 per cent to 2.5 per cent.
Singapore has so far confirmed 75 cases of the novel coronavirus, with authorities earlier this month raising the Disease Outbreak Response System Condition (DORSCON) to Orange.
Last week, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong warned that the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak will have a significant impact on the local economy for the next couple of quarters.
READ: COVID-19 to have 'significant' impact on economy, says PM Lee Hsien Loong
MTI said its earlier forecast was premised on a modest pick-up in global growth and a recovery in the global electronics cycle this year.
However, the outbreak of COVID-19 has affected many countries around the world, including Singapore, and is likely to dampen the growth prospects of China and those impacted.
In China, GDP growth in 2020 will likely come in lower than earlier projected due to a pullback in household consumption as a result of the lockdowns and travel restrictions implemented in several major Chinese cities to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus, it said.
Industrial production has also been disrupted due to work stoppages and delays arising from these containment measures, MTI noted in its report.
These will, in turn, have a knock-on impact on regional economies through lower outbound tourism and other import demand from China, as well as disruptions to supply chains, it added.
“Should the COVID-19 outbreak be more widespread, severe and protracted than anticipated, there could be a sharper pullback in global consumption, as well as more prolonged disruptions to global supply chains and production,” the report said.
MTI also cautioned that a sharper-than-expected economic slowdown in China due to the virus outbreak will negatively affect global trade and economic growth.
At the same time, other uncertainties in the global economy remain, such as the US-China trade war and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, it added.
As a result, the outlook for the Singapore economy has weakened since its last review in November, the ministry said, adding that the ongoing COVID-19 situation could impact the local economy through several channels.
First, the outward-oriented sectors, such as manufacturing and wholesale trade, will be affected by the weaker growth outlook in several of Singapore’s key final demand markets, including China.
Firms in these sectors could also be affected by supply chain disruptions arising from prolonged factory closures and labour shortages in China.
READ: Amid fears of 80% revenue loss due to COVID-19 outbreak, restaurants hope for rent rebates
Second, there has been a sharp fall in tourist arrivals, particularly from China, and this has badly affected the local tourism and transport sectors.
Third, domestic consumption is likely to decline as locals cut back on shopping and dining-out activities. This will adversely affect firms in segments such as retail and food services, the ministry noted.
MTI permanent secretary Gabriel Lim said at a press conference that the hit on GDP growth is likely to be felt during the first two quarters of the year, although the impact through these three channels could play out further down the road and will need to be closely watched.
The ministry emphasised that while its latest GDP forecast range includes the possibility of a recession, that is not its central scenario and its baseline view is for the economy to see positive growth at around 0.5 per cent for 2020.
“As the COVID-19 situation is still evolving, there is a significant degree of uncertainty over the length and severity of the outbreak, and hence its overall impact on the Singapore economy,” Mr Lim said.
“MTI will continue to monitor developments and their impact on the Singapore economy closely.”
READ: 'Sufficient room’ within policy band for easing in line with coronavirus economic impact: MAS
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said its monetary policy remains unchanged, as it had highlighted in a statement earlier this month.
The central bank is monitoring developments very closely and its next policy review remains as scheduled in April, its deputy managing director Edward Robinson told reporters.
2019 GROWTH SLOWEST IN A DECADE
MTI’s report on Monday also showed the Singapore economy expanded by 1 per cent year-on-year in the last quarter of 2019, slightly above the Government’s initial estimate of 0.8 per cent and the 0.7 per cent growth in the earlier quarter.
On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annualised basis, growth came in at 0.6 per cent. This is way below the 2.2 per cent expansion in the third quarter, but above the 0.1 per cent flash estimate.
This brings the full-year growth in 2019 to 0.7 per cent, a sharp slowdown from 2018’s 3.4 per cent and hitting the country’s lowest growth since the global financial crisis in 2009.
The manufacturing sector was the biggest laggard last year. It contracted by 1.4 per cent, reversing from 2018’s 7 per cent growth, due to output declines in the electronics, chemicals, precision engineering and transport engineering clusters.
Construction expanded by 2.8 per cent, turning around from the 3.5 per cent contraction in 2018, supported by both public sector and private sector construction works.
The services producing industries also grew by 1.1 per cent, albeit moderating from the 3.4 per cent growth in 2018. Growth largely came from the finance and insurance, other services and business services sectors.
READ: Singapore's exports fall 3.3% in January, growth forecast cut on COVID-19 fears
For this year, there are still expectations for a “modest growth” in the manufacturing sector, although authorities are closely watching for the impact of COVID-19 on clusters, such as electronics, which have been showing some signs of a tentative rebound, said Economic Development Board’s assistant managing director Kelvin Wong.
There are also pockets of relative strength in the Singapore economy, such as the construction sector which is projected to post steady growth given the rebound in construction demand since 2018.
The information and communications sector is also expected to be resilient on account of sustained enterprise demand for IT solutions, MTI said.
Separately on Monday, Enterprise Singapore cut its 2020 forecasts for non-oil domestic exports (NODX) and total merchandise trade, citing likely impact of the novel coronavirus outbreak on its trading partners and lower oil prices.
Both NODX and total merchandise are now expected to come in between -0.5 per cent to 1.5 per cent this year, down from an earlier projection of zero to 2 per cent growth.
Singapore's exports fall 3.3% in January, growth forecast cut on COVID-19 fears
A general view of ships docked at Tanjong Pagar container port in Singapore. (File photo: AFP/Roslan Rahman)
17 Feb 2020 09:28AM (Updated: 17 Feb 2020 09:30AM)
Bookmark
SINGAPORE: Singapore said on Monday (Feb 17) its non-oil domestic exports declined in January, as it cut its growth forecast for the year partly due to the COVID-19 outbreak.
Exports declined 3.3 per cent in January, after a 2.4 per cent expansion in December following nine months of contraction, according to official data.
READ: Singapore cuts 2020 GDP forecast to -0.5% to 1.5% due to COVID-19 outbreak
Trade agency Enterprise Singapore revised downwards its growth projection for the rest of the year to -0.5 per cent to 1.5 per cent, down from an earlier forecast of zero per cent to 2 per cent growth.
The earlier forecast was "premised on a modest pickup in global growth, along with a recovery in the global electronics cycle", it said.
READ: Package to help households with cost of living to be announced at Budget amid COVID-19 outbreak: DPM Heng
However, the COVID-19 outbreak has affected Singapore's key trade partners, in particular China, which is Singapore's top export destination, the agency said.
"This may dampen the growth prospects of affected countries, if China’s growth comes in lower than earlier expected, with a knock-on impact on regional economies, through lower import demand, as well as supply chain disruptions and weakened consumer and business sentiments."
Lower oil prices are also expected to weigh on Singapore's oil trade and in turn, total trade.
"The Energy Information Administration projected weakened global demand in the first quarter of 2020, in part reflecting the effects of the COVID-19, compared to the previous update," Enterprise Singapore said.
JANUARY EXPORT DECLINE LED BY ELECTRONIC SHIPMENTS
The decline in January exports was mainly due to a 13 per cent decline in electronic exports, though it was at a slower pace compared with the 21.3 per cent contraction in December, said the trade agency.
Shipments of integrated circuits, personal computers and telecommunications equipment fell by 20.5 per cent, 32.2 per cent and 25.1 per cent respectively, contributing the most to the decline in electronic exports.
READ: COVID-19 to have 'significant' impact on economy, says PM Lee Hsien Loong
Non-electronic exports also fell slightly by 0.1 per cent, after an 11.5 per cent growth in the previous month. Petrochemicals (-23.2 per cent), pharmaceuticals (-5.5 per cent) and electrical machinery (-28.3 per cent) contributed the most to the decrease in non-electronic shipments.
Exports to the majority of Singapore's top markets decreased, except for US, China, South Korea and Taiwan, said Enterprise Singapore.
Shipments to Hong Kong fell by 40.9 per cent, leading the decline, followed by Indonesia with a 22.6 per cent contraction and the EU with a 10.5 per cent drop.
On a year-on-year basis, total trade declined by 3.1 per cent in January, after a 0.7 per cent growth in the previous month.
TOTAL TRADE FALLS BY 3.2% IN 2019
In 2019, Singapore’s total merchandise trade decreased by 3.2 per cent to S$1 trillion, compared with S$1.1 trillion in the previous year and S$967 billion in 2017.
The decline was mainly due to a 13.9 per cent fall in oil trade amid lower oil prices than a year ago, said Enterprise Singapore.
READ: From manufacturing to retail, Singapore firms brace for supply issues amid COVID-19 outbreak
Non-oil domestic exports declined by 9.2 per cent last year, after a 4.2 per cent growth in 2018. This was due to lower shipments of both electronic and non-electronic products, said the agency.
Electronic shipments contracted by 22.5 per cent in 2019, following a 5.5 per cent decrease in the previous year. Non-electronic exports also declined by 4.5 per cent in 2019, after an 8.2 per cent growth in 2018.
Non-oil exports, which include both domestic exports and re-exports, declined year-on-year by 1.9 per cent in 2019, following a 6.5 per cent growth last year.
A general view of ships docked at Tanjong Pagar container port in Singapore. (File photo: AFP/Roslan Rahman)
17 Feb 2020 09:28AM (Updated: 17 Feb 2020 09:30AM)
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SINGAPORE: Singapore said on Monday (Feb 17) its non-oil domestic exports declined in January, as it cut its growth forecast for the year partly due to the COVID-19 outbreak.
Exports declined 3.3 per cent in January, after a 2.4 per cent expansion in December following nine months of contraction, according to official data.
READ: Singapore cuts 2020 GDP forecast to -0.5% to 1.5% due to COVID-19 outbreak
Trade agency Enterprise Singapore revised downwards its growth projection for the rest of the year to -0.5 per cent to 1.5 per cent, down from an earlier forecast of zero per cent to 2 per cent growth.
The earlier forecast was "premised on a modest pickup in global growth, along with a recovery in the global electronics cycle", it said.
READ: Package to help households with cost of living to be announced at Budget amid COVID-19 outbreak: DPM Heng
However, the COVID-19 outbreak has affected Singapore's key trade partners, in particular China, which is Singapore's top export destination, the agency said.
"This may dampen the growth prospects of affected countries, if China’s growth comes in lower than earlier expected, with a knock-on impact on regional economies, through lower import demand, as well as supply chain disruptions and weakened consumer and business sentiments."
Lower oil prices are also expected to weigh on Singapore's oil trade and in turn, total trade.
"The Energy Information Administration projected weakened global demand in the first quarter of 2020, in part reflecting the effects of the COVID-19, compared to the previous update," Enterprise Singapore said.
JANUARY EXPORT DECLINE LED BY ELECTRONIC SHIPMENTS
The decline in January exports was mainly due to a 13 per cent decline in electronic exports, though it was at a slower pace compared with the 21.3 per cent contraction in December, said the trade agency.
Shipments of integrated circuits, personal computers and telecommunications equipment fell by 20.5 per cent, 32.2 per cent and 25.1 per cent respectively, contributing the most to the decline in electronic exports.
READ: COVID-19 to have 'significant' impact on economy, says PM Lee Hsien Loong
Non-electronic exports also fell slightly by 0.1 per cent, after an 11.5 per cent growth in the previous month. Petrochemicals (-23.2 per cent), pharmaceuticals (-5.5 per cent) and electrical machinery (-28.3 per cent) contributed the most to the decrease in non-electronic shipments.
Exports to the majority of Singapore's top markets decreased, except for US, China, South Korea and Taiwan, said Enterprise Singapore.
Shipments to Hong Kong fell by 40.9 per cent, leading the decline, followed by Indonesia with a 22.6 per cent contraction and the EU with a 10.5 per cent drop.
On a year-on-year basis, total trade declined by 3.1 per cent in January, after a 0.7 per cent growth in the previous month.
TOTAL TRADE FALLS BY 3.2% IN 2019
In 2019, Singapore’s total merchandise trade decreased by 3.2 per cent to S$1 trillion, compared with S$1.1 trillion in the previous year and S$967 billion in 2017.
The decline was mainly due to a 13.9 per cent fall in oil trade amid lower oil prices than a year ago, said Enterprise Singapore.
READ: From manufacturing to retail, Singapore firms brace for supply issues amid COVID-19 outbreak
Non-oil domestic exports declined by 9.2 per cent last year, after a 4.2 per cent growth in 2018. This was due to lower shipments of both electronic and non-electronic products, said the agency.
Electronic shipments contracted by 22.5 per cent in 2019, following a 5.5 per cent decrease in the previous year. Non-electronic exports also declined by 4.5 per cent in 2019, after an 8.2 per cent growth in 2018.
Non-oil exports, which include both domestic exports and re-exports, declined year-on-year by 1.9 per cent in 2019, following a 6.5 per cent growth last year.
From manufacturing to retail, Singapore firms brace for supply issues amid COVID-19 outbreak
The virus outbreak has also sparked concerns about the impact of the outbreak on the global supply chain AFP/STR
By Tang See Kit@SeeKitCNA
15 Feb 2020 07:15AM (Updated: 15 Feb 2020 07:20AM)
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SINGAPORE: Singapore firms are bracing for possible supply disruptions as factories and shops in some parts of China remain closed amid the outbreak of COVID-19.
Even those that resumed operations this week are unsure when they will operate at full capacity, these local firms told CNA citing updates from their Chinese business partners, as workers who travelled back to their hometowns for Chinese New Year have not been able to return given city lockdowns and travel restrictions.
Already, the extended shutdown of businesses until at least Feb 9 in most Chinese cities, put in place by authorities to control the spread of the deadly novel coronavirus, has caused some supply chain disruptions.
READ: COVID-19 to have 'significant' impact on economy: PM Lee Hsien Loong
Citing conversations with some local firms, Enterprise Singapore’s chairman Peter Ong said at a press conference last week that it has been “very difficult” to ship goods in and out of China.
Certain sectors are seeing a bigger hit. For example, those in logistics have seen a fall as much as 70 per cent in business due to transport challenges in China, according to Enterprise Singapore’s CEO Png Cheong Boon.
The semiconductor industry could also be affected, some analysts have said, as Hubei province – the centre of the virus outbreak – is one of China’s major manufacturing hubs in steel, automobile and electronics. Businesses there have been told to stay shut until Feb 13.
Citing a quick survey it did among 40 members, the Singapore Semiconductor Industry Association (SSIA) told CNA that 80 per cent of those that responded have seen impact from the virus outbreak.
The majority reported staff deployment issues and a drop in China-related business, while about one-fifth cited concerns about supply shortage or delivery delays from Chinese suppliers.
While most of the respondents agreed that it is too early to assess the full impact on their businesses, the COVID-19 outbreak will most likely slow down growth and derail an expected recovery in the industry this year, said SSIA’s executive director Ang Wee Seng.
“The question is to what degree. We will need to closely monitor this in coming weeks,” said Mr Ang.
Elsewhere in the manufacturing sector, local contract manufacturing firm Watson EP Industries said its factory in Dongguan has re-opened on Feb 10. But only slightly more than half of its 350 workers are back at work.
“Some of them are in the lockdown cities, some are still on the way and need a few more days,” said group executive director Joyce Seow.
The company said its current stockpile can last for at least two months. “I think we are fine for immediate orders but beyond that, we are still checking with our suppliers to see if they started work and whether their own supply chains are impacted,” she added.
Apart from uncertainties as to when supplies can be delivered, the firm is also anticipating logistics issues amid the manpower shortage.
If the situation is prolonged, it may consider shifting some production back to Singapore, said Ms Seow.
READ: Coronavirus outbreak: Economic fallout could be worse than SARS
Across other industries, Horme Hardware said some of its shipments from China have been delayed.
The hardware tools and equipment retailer sources for goods from several Chinese provinces, such as Guangdong, Zhejiang and Fujian, and receives about 10 containers of goods each month.
As of this week, only some of the company’s suppliers resumed operations.
Its director Chan Hwa Hong said: "We’ve received confirmation from five factories that shipments, which were scheduled to receive by early March, will be delayed till the end of the month. Another three factories remain uncontactable."
As for local fashion retailer Charles & Keith Group, about 90 per cent of its production is based in China with its manufacturing facilities mainly located in Guangdong.
“We are in discussions with the factories we work with and we have been informed that they hope to progressively resume operations from next week,” said a company spokesperson.
The company added that it “has some factories in Malaysia as well”, and has sufficient stock for now.
“We hope that any disruption to our supply chain is temporary,” the spokesperson told CNA.
Singapore is bracing itself for a hit on the economy amid the ongoing spread of the novel coronavirus that is now named as COVID-19.
Beyond tourism-related sectors, some economists have cautioned about impact on the local manufacturing sector.
“China is also Singapore’s largest non-oil domestic export market, accounting for 17.3 per cent of the total share in 2019,” DBS senior economist Irvin Seah said in a note dated Feb 7.
“Supply chain disruptions such as extended factory closures within China, will have significant impact on Singapore’s manufacturing sector,” he wrote.
READ: Measures to help firms affected by COVID-19 must recognise differences from SARS: Chan Chun Sing
Trade and Industry Minister Chan Chun Sing, who spoke to reporters on Friday after a meeting with business representatives, said he is aware of these concerns among manufacturers. But he also said the virus outbreak has “brought home the importance of diversification” as part of strengthening supply chains.
For local furniture manufacturer Koda, this seems to be the case as a diversification into other markets has brought down its reliance on materials from China.
Only about 10 per cent of its supply chain is affected at the moment, even with its suppliers in Southern China still closed.
Mr Ernie Koh, Koda’s executive director of marketing, said while the company is concerned, that is still much lower compared to about three years ago when China accounted for as much as 40 per cent of its supply chain.
Horme Hardware’s Mr Chan said he has plans to seek alternative sources, but he is worried that his options may be limited.
“It’s not as straight forward because the other countries aren’t producing some of these items anymore or they are simply don't have the competitive edge."
As for local building materials supplier M Metal, it started turning to Taiwan for its supplies of steel coils since 2018. Those made in China may be cheaper, but bubbling uncertainties due to the US-China trade war prompted it to make the switch.
As such, the company has not been affected by any of the ongoing disruptions. "Contractors that have signed contracts with us will see no disruption to their ongoing contracts," said managing director John Kong.
Still, Mr Kong said the company is not without concerns.
“(The situation in China) will have a great impact on the buying behaviour for these buyers with no forward contracts with steel mill – they have to quickly look for an alternative and reliable source of supply,” he told CNA.
“In the short term the steel mill cannot quickly increases their capacity ... So what the steel mill will do? The mill will increase their steel prices as demand is greater than supply.”
The virus outbreak has also sparked concerns about the impact of the outbreak on the global supply chain AFP/STR
By Tang See Kit@SeeKitCNA
15 Feb 2020 07:15AM (Updated: 15 Feb 2020 07:20AM)
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SINGAPORE: Singapore firms are bracing for possible supply disruptions as factories and shops in some parts of China remain closed amid the outbreak of COVID-19.
Even those that resumed operations this week are unsure when they will operate at full capacity, these local firms told CNA citing updates from their Chinese business partners, as workers who travelled back to their hometowns for Chinese New Year have not been able to return given city lockdowns and travel restrictions.
Already, the extended shutdown of businesses until at least Feb 9 in most Chinese cities, put in place by authorities to control the spread of the deadly novel coronavirus, has caused some supply chain disruptions.
READ: COVID-19 to have 'significant' impact on economy: PM Lee Hsien Loong
Citing conversations with some local firms, Enterprise Singapore’s chairman Peter Ong said at a press conference last week that it has been “very difficult” to ship goods in and out of China.
Certain sectors are seeing a bigger hit. For example, those in logistics have seen a fall as much as 70 per cent in business due to transport challenges in China, according to Enterprise Singapore’s CEO Png Cheong Boon.
The semiconductor industry could also be affected, some analysts have said, as Hubei province – the centre of the virus outbreak – is one of China’s major manufacturing hubs in steel, automobile and electronics. Businesses there have been told to stay shut until Feb 13.
Citing a quick survey it did among 40 members, the Singapore Semiconductor Industry Association (SSIA) told CNA that 80 per cent of those that responded have seen impact from the virus outbreak.
The majority reported staff deployment issues and a drop in China-related business, while about one-fifth cited concerns about supply shortage or delivery delays from Chinese suppliers.
While most of the respondents agreed that it is too early to assess the full impact on their businesses, the COVID-19 outbreak will most likely slow down growth and derail an expected recovery in the industry this year, said SSIA’s executive director Ang Wee Seng.
“The question is to what degree. We will need to closely monitor this in coming weeks,” said Mr Ang.
Elsewhere in the manufacturing sector, local contract manufacturing firm Watson EP Industries said its factory in Dongguan has re-opened on Feb 10. But only slightly more than half of its 350 workers are back at work.
“Some of them are in the lockdown cities, some are still on the way and need a few more days,” said group executive director Joyce Seow.
The company said its current stockpile can last for at least two months. “I think we are fine for immediate orders but beyond that, we are still checking with our suppliers to see if they started work and whether their own supply chains are impacted,” she added.
Apart from uncertainties as to when supplies can be delivered, the firm is also anticipating logistics issues amid the manpower shortage.
If the situation is prolonged, it may consider shifting some production back to Singapore, said Ms Seow.
READ: Coronavirus outbreak: Economic fallout could be worse than SARS
Across other industries, Horme Hardware said some of its shipments from China have been delayed.
The hardware tools and equipment retailer sources for goods from several Chinese provinces, such as Guangdong, Zhejiang and Fujian, and receives about 10 containers of goods each month.
As of this week, only some of the company’s suppliers resumed operations.
Its director Chan Hwa Hong said: "We’ve received confirmation from five factories that shipments, which were scheduled to receive by early March, will be delayed till the end of the month. Another three factories remain uncontactable."
As for local fashion retailer Charles & Keith Group, about 90 per cent of its production is based in China with its manufacturing facilities mainly located in Guangdong.
“We are in discussions with the factories we work with and we have been informed that they hope to progressively resume operations from next week,” said a company spokesperson.
The company added that it “has some factories in Malaysia as well”, and has sufficient stock for now.
“We hope that any disruption to our supply chain is temporary,” the spokesperson told CNA.
Singapore is bracing itself for a hit on the economy amid the ongoing spread of the novel coronavirus that is now named as COVID-19.
Beyond tourism-related sectors, some economists have cautioned about impact on the local manufacturing sector.
“China is also Singapore’s largest non-oil domestic export market, accounting for 17.3 per cent of the total share in 2019,” DBS senior economist Irvin Seah said in a note dated Feb 7.
“Supply chain disruptions such as extended factory closures within China, will have significant impact on Singapore’s manufacturing sector,” he wrote.
READ: Measures to help firms affected by COVID-19 must recognise differences from SARS: Chan Chun Sing
Trade and Industry Minister Chan Chun Sing, who spoke to reporters on Friday after a meeting with business representatives, said he is aware of these concerns among manufacturers. But he also said the virus outbreak has “brought home the importance of diversification” as part of strengthening supply chains.
For local furniture manufacturer Koda, this seems to be the case as a diversification into other markets has brought down its reliance on materials from China.
Only about 10 per cent of its supply chain is affected at the moment, even with its suppliers in Southern China still closed.
Mr Ernie Koh, Koda’s executive director of marketing, said while the company is concerned, that is still much lower compared to about three years ago when China accounted for as much as 40 per cent of its supply chain.
Horme Hardware’s Mr Chan said he has plans to seek alternative sources, but he is worried that his options may be limited.
“It’s not as straight forward because the other countries aren’t producing some of these items anymore or they are simply don't have the competitive edge."
As for local building materials supplier M Metal, it started turning to Taiwan for its supplies of steel coils since 2018. Those made in China may be cheaper, but bubbling uncertainties due to the US-China trade war prompted it to make the switch.
As such, the company has not been affected by any of the ongoing disruptions. "Contractors that have signed contracts with us will see no disruption to their ongoing contracts," said managing director John Kong.
Still, Mr Kong said the company is not without concerns.
“(The situation in China) will have a great impact on the buying behaviour for these buyers with no forward contracts with steel mill – they have to quickly look for an alternative and reliable source of supply,” he told CNA.
“In the short term the steel mill cannot quickly increases their capacity ... So what the steel mill will do? The mill will increase their steel prices as demand is greater than supply.”
The Big Read: Panic buying grabbed the headlines, but a quiet resilience is seeing Singaporeans through COVID-19 outbreak
Now that a sense of normalcy has returned, questions remained. What caused all that panic buying, which had left some quarters fuming and embarrassed, and others to question whatever happened to decades of efforts aimed at building a resilient society?
Local community group, StandUpForSG distributing messages of encouragement from the public to healthcare workers at Yishun bus interchange on Feb 14. (Photo: TODAY / Najeer Yusof)
By Low Youjin
and Alif Chandra
17 Feb 2020 06:15AM (Updated: 17 Feb 2020 06:20AM)
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SINGAPORE: Tired and hungry after a long day at work, Mr Derrick Tay was looking forward to returning home for a warm shower, having something to eat and watching Netflix in bed.
But something caught his attention while he was mindlessly thumbing through his phone in the train around 9pm on Friday a week ago: Images of shoppers making a mad dash for groceries at supermarkets across the island.
While Singaporeans have earned a reputation for being kiasu (Hokkien for the fear of missing out), it was a scene that no one has witnessed here before - not even during the SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) crisis in 2003 or the H1N1 pandemic in 2009.
Just hours earlier, the Ministry of Health (MOH) had raised the Disease Outbreak Response System Condition (DORSCON) risk assessment level from Yellow to Orange.
READ: Coronavirus outbreak: Singapore raises DORSCON level to Orange; schools to suspend inter-school, external activities
READ: No need to rush for supplies, says Chan Chun Sing, amid reports of surge in demand
The DORSCON level was raised after several COVID-19 cases were detected in the Republic without any links to previous cases or travel histories to China.
“I was shocked by what I saw on my phone. When I got home, I told my parents about it,” Mr Tay, 31, said.
His mother had planned to do her weekly grocery run on Saturday but he told her to do it that night as he “wasn’t sure if there would be anything left for her to buy in the morning at the rate people were wiping out the shelves”.
Customers at Fairprice Finest in Bukit Timah Plaza on Feb 7, 2020, after the Dorscon alert level was changed to Orange. (Photo: TODAY/ Raj Nadarajan)
The mother and son then headed to their neighbourhood’s mini-mart in Choa Chu Kang.
“It was crazy that day. I’ve never seen so many people inside before, and at such a late hour. There was a queue that wound around the inside of the store,” said Mr Tay, who ended up having to wait for more than 30 minutes to pay for his purchases.
His basket of groceries held a bag of rice, four packs of assorted instant noodle flavours, a bottle of oil and several cans of tuna and sardine.
His 72-year-old mother, who helped carry two bags’ worth of toilet paper, told him that she could not remember Singaporeans panicking like this.
READ: COVID-19: Supply chain remains robust, 'panic buying' situation has stabilised, says Lawrence Wong
READ: Commentary: Singaporeans queued for toilet paper and instant noodles – there is no shame in that
Despite reassurances from Government leaders including Trade and Industry Minister Chan Chun Sing who took to Facebook to call for calm, Mr Tay and many Singaporeans were not entirely assured as the panic buying continued through the night.
In fact, Mr Tay was still in the queue when he read Mr Chan’s Facebook post but he went on to complete his purchases.
He said his actions were partly shaped by the mask situation. The Government had made clear that it has a stockpile of masks but this did not prevent long queues or stocks running out at shops and pharmacies.
What happened was that the Government had released five million masks to retailers over nine days last month but these were sold out within hours. As a result, the Government decided to distribute the masks from its stockpile directly to families, capped at four masks per household.
At the same time, it has reiterated that there is no need for people to wear a mask if they are well and it is more important to practise good personal hygiene such as washing hands.
Singapore, like many countries, has been grappling with a mask shortage since the health crisis started, sparked by a sudden surge in demand.
The Government has distributed masks from its stockpile directly to families, capped at four masks per household. (Photo: TODAY / Najeer Yusof)
While many like Mr Tay understood the constraints and logistical challenges involved, as far as they are concerned, the takeaway was that they had great difficulty getting masks from retailers and ultimately, had to rely on a limited number given out by the Government.
And even if supplies are in no danger of running out, Mr Tay argued that it would not hurt to be prepared.
“Anyway, if there’s no emergency, we’ll just take it as having done a few days’ worth of shopping beforehand,” he said.
While Mr Tay and his mother had joined the hordes of shoppers at the supermarkets, their purchase was relatively measured compared to the others: Pictures of shoppers with overflowing trolleys went viral, along with photographs and videos of empty vegetable and fruit baskets, and chillers devoid of meat.
Still, some like Dr Paul Tambyah felt it was understandable why these shoppers behaved the way they did.
READ: Commentary: Fighting fear is key part in battling COVID-19
READ: Commentary: The biggest work-from-home exercise may have just begun. How ready is Singapore?
Noting that Singapore, along with the rest of the world, would have to deal with the outbreak for the next several months, Dr Tambyah – who is president of the Asia-Pacific Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infection – noted that in such a situation, it was practical to keep some essential supplies on standby in case one has to be put on quarantine, for instance.
“As far as I know, when a quarantine officer comes to put a person on quarantine, they do not let you go shopping at the supermarket first,” he said.
To allay public anxiety, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong made a speech a day after the panic buying, assuring Singaporeans that there was no need to panic as the city was not being locked down, and there was ample supply of food for everyone.
READ: PM Lee urges Singapore to take courage amid coronavirus outbreak, see through stressful time together
Now that a sense of normalcy has returned, questions remain to be answered: What caused all that panic buying over that fateful weekend, which had left some quarters fuming - and embarrassed - over the behaviour of “ugly Singaporeans”, and others to question whatever happened to decades of efforts aimed at building a resilient society?
And what does it say about Singaporeans, many of whom have stoically and quietly got on with their lives, despite the uncertainty and disruptions to daily life?
THE SITUATION ELSEWHERE
So far, apart from Singapore, there have been no reports of panic buying in places outside of China. Residents in Thailand for example said the situation was calm and there has been no run on daily essentials.
Some experts believe that events in Hong Kong, which was gripped by scenes of panic buying recently, had influenced Singaporeans’ behaviour.
Mr Wong Bai Chun, a Hong Kong citizen, said that two weeks ago, there was a brief but acute shortage of toilet paper and other paper goods in the territory, which was sparked by an Internet rumour that the Chinese spring holiday was being extended and there would be insufficient supplies of such products.
READ: Hong Kong to boost face mask stocks with prison labour
READ: Commentary: China in a coronavirus lockdown – life is normal but not really
Mr Wong said the fear over paper shortage had spread to other goods in Hong Kong. “Now you can’t find rice anywhere,” said the 26-year-old who works in the finance industry.
Unlike Macau or mainland China, there are no regulations in Hong Kong to curb such behaviours, he added.
He said the panic buying and hoarding of daily essentials in Hong Kong stemmed from the shortage of disposable masks.
“At the moment, people are sourcing their masks from all over the world and there’s simply not enough,” he said. “Hong Kong doesn’t have the capacity to manufacture sufficient amounts of them.”
Mr Wong Bai Chun, a Hong Kong citizen, told TODAY that the city folks started hoarding long before Singaporeans did. He said it all started with the shortage of disposable masks. (Photo: Reuters)
While the panic buying in Hong Kong mirrors what happened in Singapore, the similarity ends there.
For one, there is no risk of Singapore running short of essential food and household items like toilet paper from short-term disruptions, such as the COVID-19 outbreak, said Minister for the Environment and Water Resources Masagos Zulkifli.
The country has managed to be resilient due to astute planning by the nation’s food agencies and its well-connected transport network, he said on Feb 10 during the launch of the 2020 Singapore Food Story. The food security strategy aims to meet 30 per cent of the country’s nutritional needs by 2030 using less than 1 per cent of its land area.
On the evening of the panic buying in Singapore, Mr Seah Kian Peng, who is the chief executive of supermarket cooperative NTUC Fairprice, also assured the public that there were sufficient supplies of daily essentials in the warehouse.
However, as experts pointed out, rationality and logic get cast aside when panic sets in.
“Research suggests that when people are in panic, the thinking part of our brain gets hijacked by the emotional system and we start to act illogically,” said a spokesperson for the Singapore Psychological Society (SPS) council. “Our ability to decide on our own is minimised.”
READ: Commentary: What to do with all these health rumours and forwarded messages in the time of COVID-19?
READ: Commentary: COVID-19 - when social media and chat groups complicate crisis communication
OTHER TRIGGERS
Among the possible factors behind the panic buying was negativity bias where people’s brains tend to focus more on negative information than positive ones, said the SPS spokesperson.
“Our brains are hardwired to register negative stimuli more readily and also to dwell and worry on them for a longer period of time,” the spokesperson said.
Furthermore, whenever there is a life-threatening epidemic or emergency, the notions of safety, protection, and self-preservation usually come into play.
The spokesperson also noted people also tend to follow others in the hope that the latter could get them out of a dangerous situation.
In Singapore’s case, this could be a possible reason why people started to hoard or buy things impulsively if everyone else around them was doing the same, or if they were told to do so on social media platforms.
This phenomenon of group-think results in irrational and dysfunctional thinking and outcomes.
“In this case, our brains focus more on the fear generated rather than on the reassurance given,” said the spokesperson.
Mr Lars Voedisch, the managing director of public relations firm PRecious Communications, said that such behaviour is triggered by one or two initial incidents which then get amplified by social media.
“(This leads) to a snowball effect of more and more people thinking of it, then hearing from the first people acting on their fear, sharing about it and through that fuelling the whole panic,” he said.
The images of empty shelves circulating on social media played a big part, said Singapore Management University sociologist Paulin Straughan.
“This meant that people were no longer reacting to rumours that essentials might run out, but this new development itself,” she said. “Which is: The shelves are empty. Better start to go now.”
Shoppers at Fairprice Finest in Bukit Timah Plaza reaching out for toilet paper even before it got stocked in the shelves. (Photo: TODAY / Raj Nadarajan)
Professor Straughan, whose research interests include medical sociology that encompasses infectious diseases, said it did not help that the public was seeing these images circulated on social media late in the night. As a result, these became the abiding images for many Singaporeans overnight.
“For the next 12 hours, the shelves remain empty (in their minds),” she said. “And that’s 12 hours of festering, and it entrenches (the fear that there are no supplies).”
Agreeing with Mr Voedisch’s observation about social media, Prof Straughan reiterated that while technology has helped to disseminate information a lot faster, it has similarly allowed misinformation to spread just as quickly as well.
This was not something that Singaporeans had to worry about during the past virus outbreaks, she added.
The SPS council spokesperson noted that when the COVID-19 virus was first made known, there was an overwhelming amount of news and social media coverage.
READ: What you need to know about additional precautionary measures under DORSCON Orange
“When the DORSCON Orange was finally announced, it became a trigger tantamount to saying ‘the coronavirus has arrived’, resulting in the accompanying hoarding behaviour as response,” the spokesperson said.
Nanyang Technological University (NTU) Professor May Oo Lwin, whose research interest at the Wee Kim Wee School of Communication and Information (WKWSCI) includes strategic and health communications, said it is likely that the public was responding to certain levels of fear and stress that the deluge of messages had aroused.
She explained that scientists have pointed to a phenomenon where communication leading to fear and stressful emotions can cause unintended consequences.
Such messages, she said, needed to be concurrently countered with provision of strategies for coping with perceived threats.
“In this particular case, all the media information is likely to have induced strong emotive elements which were managed by some population segments by embracing these forms of rational or irrational, but culturally symbolic, behaviours,” said Prof Lwin.
In other words, some segments of the population “may undertake actions based around daily priorities to respond to their perceptions of the threat”, said the health communications expert.
For example, in extreme cases of crisis like an earthquake, people could be seen taking their television sets while evacuating, she noted.
That could explain why stacks of toilet paper were snapped up by Singaporeans during the panic buying. Prof Straughan had another theory: They were relatively cheap and easy to hoard. “We all want to do something to make ourselves feel better,” she quipped.
PUBLIC COMMS "COULD HAVE BEEN BETTER"
Communications experts said the panic-buying in Singapore might have been avoided if the information disseminated by the authorities had been clearer.
“The problem with the message was that it was too bureaucratic at the start,” said Assistant Professor Liew Kai Khiun, who teaches at NTU's WKWSCI. “Much of the Government’s message involved military terms (and) colour codes."
Prof Straughan agreed, noting that the definition of DORSCON Orange was not explained enough as well.
DORSCON is a colour-coded framework that shows the current disease situation.
Orange refers to a situation in which a virus is spreading in Singapore but not widely, and is being contained. Previously, the risk assessment level was at Yellow, signifying that the virus was severe and could infect from person to person, but was chiefly occurring outside Singapore.
The highest level, Red, indicates that the virus is spreading widely and can result in major disruption such as closing schools.
“Some people didn’t know what it meant. All they saw was the visual,” said Prof Straughan. “There are four levels. Green, Yellow, Orange and Red. Red is bad, everybody knows that right? Green is good. Now Orange. It is closer to Red than it is to Green. So visually, it lights up all your flags.”
LISTEN: Getting to grips with DORSCON orange in Singapore's fight against COVID-19, a Heart of the Matter podcast episode
READ: Commentary: Don’t forget the vulnerable in the fight against COVID-19
Asst Prof Liew pointed out while the message from the authorities was accurate, it did not cater to the layman. To that end, they could have used dialect or Singlish to reach out more effectively, he noted.
During the SARS outbreak in 2003, local sitcom character Phua Chu Kang was used to educate Singaporeans on the importance of washing their hands. This, he said, was an effective way of reaching out to the public, and many people still remember it today.
A leaked MOH press release a few hours before the official DORSCON Orange announcement, which left many befuddled, might have also fuelled the public panic.
The press release was circulated on social media and through messaging platforms such as WhatsApp.
Up till this incident, Prof Straughan felt that the Government had been doing well in being upfront with Singaporeans about the virus situation. But when the press release was prematurely leaked out, it created some confusion.
She said it did not help that recipients of the leaked document were initially told by others that it was fake news, only to be informed by the authorities a few hours later that it was indeed true.
Such contradictory information would have led some to question if the authorities were trying to hide something, she said.
The authorities have yet to announce the source of the leak, but Trade and Industry Minister Chan said on Feb 9 that the various agencies involved in tackling the virus will remind their staff that they have a professional responsibility not to prematurely share information that has not been finalised.
Despite these short-comings in public communications, some experts felt that Prime Minister Lee’s nine-minute long speech on Feb 8 went some way in restoring a sense of normalcy.
The SPS council spokesperson said Mr Lee’s message gave people very concrete actions that “handed back a measure of control to people whose sense of control felt threatened”.
Mr Voedisch of PRecious Communications said having the Prime Minister step in to address the public helped, because it went beyond technocratic statements and directly addressed what people were concerned with.
“While authorities should not get emotional when communicating, they have to be empathetic appealing to the hearts and minds of the audience,” said Mr Voedisch.
However, he was uncertain if an address by Mr Lee to the public at an earlier juncture would have helped.
Instead, he said that the authorities should have foreseen the responses from the public as part of proper scenario planning with “ready-to-go action plans”.
Also, they should have anticipated and addressed the public’s concerns and fears across the different platforms, he added.
THE RAMIFICATIONS
Mr Chan, the Trade and Industry Minister, had spoken out against panic buying and hoarding behaviour by a “small segment of Singaporeans”, even though he noted that this was to be expected.
In a Facebook post on Feb 8, he noted that it was “natural” in times of uncertainty that people want to protect ourselves and the ones that they love.
“However I urge all of us to think of the larger communities we belong to. Hoarding means that we deprive others of things that they really need,” he said. “That could be your neighbour who needs to buy rice for her children’s meals or even organisations looking after the vulnerable who require cleaning supplies.”
Speaking to the media the next day, Mr Chan also said that the panic buying at supermarkets will signal to other countries that Singaporeans cannot react well in times of crisis and could be taken advantage of in the future.
One potential consequence, he warned, is that suppliers and retailers who observe the panic buying might take advantage of the situation and jack up prices of goods.
Ultimately, the hoarding behaviour was “a fight-or-flight response that has arisen primarily from fear and a need for self-preservation”, said the SPS council spokesperson.
And this fear can breed distrust and hostility towards others. “With a constant overemphasis on fear, people may start to behave in less caring or more complacent ways in order to maintain self-preservation,” the spokesperson added.
HERE COMES THE GOOD
Still, despite the panic buying grabbing the headlines, Mr Chan and other government leaders took pains to point out that a large majority of Singaporeans had been “calm and rational”.
Many Singaporeans had come forward to thank the cashiers and supermarket staff constantly working behind the scenes to restock the empty shelves, Mr Chan noted.
Countless others have also stepped in to do their part for their fellow citizens, with numerous ground-up initiatives started in the community.
READ: 'We intend to stick it out with them': Volunteers write notes, send food to healthcare workers fighting COVID-19
READ: Commentary: COVID-19 the new national test for Singapore. How are we doing?
(From left) Sisters Ruirui and Rui'en delivering breakfast to a healthcare worker on Feb 8, 2020. (Photo: Tong Yee/ Facebook)
QUIET RESILIENCE
Away from the public spotlight and media glare, ordinary Singaporeans have got on with their lives, despite the disruptions and worries brought on by the COVID-19 outbreak.
Scores of Singaporeans — such as taxi and private-hire drivers, as well as those in the retail and tourism industries — have seen their livelihoods taken a hit. Others have had to adjust to working from home as business continuity plans swung into place.
Cleaners, for example, are putting in longer hours while healthcare workers not only have to work longer each day but are also putting themselves at risk on the frontlines.
A 23-year-old outbreak nurse who works with COVID-19 patients said that while her family understands the risks of her occupation, it does not stop them from worrying.
“Most nurses are worried too, but it’s our job and this is what we do for a living,” said the nurse, who wanted to be known only as Sharmaine due to the sensitivity of her role.
When she was first assigned to handle suspected COVID-19 cases, Sharmaine said she was scared as no one knew what exactly they were dealing with.
“But over time, I grew immune to it, even if a patient were to test positive for the virus. Now I don't feel so scared anymore.”
However, she feels disappointed at the discrimination against healthcare workers shown by some Singaporeans, even as many others expressed gratitude for their work.
“It truly is demoralising when you hear of such incidents. We feel ostracised at times because all we want to do is perform our job and go home,” she said. “But we continue to keep an open mind because we are the first line of defence.”
Messages from the public thanking healthcare workers for their hard work. These messages were put up on Facebook with the hashtag #braveheartsg, in response to the initiative by community group StandUpForSG. (Photo: Facebook/Muru Nagaraju, Jocelyn Chng, JJ Huang, Dawn Yip)
A taxi driver, who wanted to be known as Mr Ahmad, said he is not scared and has no qualms about picking up healthcare workers.
Although his wife worries for him, as there is no way of knowing whether a passenger might be infected with the virus, the 56-year-old CityCab driver said he still has to continue driving to support his family.
The virus outbreak, he added, had drastically affected his earnings lately, though he declined to reveal by how much.
“So far, even my friends (who are also taxi drivers) have all been continuing to work as per normal,” said Mr Ahmad.
The only difference is that he has taken some precautions, such as winding down the windows to air his vehicle after dropping off each passenger and disinfecting his steering wheel with Dettol, he added.
READ: Commentary: Looks like containment of COVID-19 not as effective as we had hoped
READ: Commentary: Hot and humid weather may end COVID-19 outbreak – as well as the development of a vaccine
For 37-year-old father Lucas Chiam, he sought to turn the situation around by using it as an opportunity to spend more time with his two sons, aged six and four.
Due to COVID-19, the lecturer and his wife decided to limit their children’s outings to the parks and playgrounds, where they would typically just keep an eye out for the youngsters’ safety.
Instead, they introduced the boys to home-based activities which could involve the entire family, such as arts and craft, reading and even playing Xbox console games.
“I think the best we can do right now is to stay positive. This is an opportunity to bond with the kids, work on some home improvement tasks and plan for the year ahead,” Mr Chiam said.
“Maybe through these tough times, we can develop some new good habits for the family that will stay with us even after the threat is over.”
Some businesses have had to adjust their operating models due to the outbreak.
Ms Jazz Chong, the owner and director of contemporary gallery Ode To Art, has noticed fewer people visiting the gallery as well as the Raffles City Shopping Centre, where the gallery is located.
“With the virus outbreak becoming more severe, we have now decided to take the extra measure of bringing the art to our clients directly,” she said. “If they like the work then it can remain in their home, making it extra convenient for them as they do not even have to leave their house.”
Meanwhile, curtain maker and supplier MC2 held its first Facebook Live event on Feb 11.
Mr Wilson Chew, the founder and managing director of the company, said: “During this time of crisis when people may be worried about attending events with crowds, we thought of using Facebook Live.”
By broadcasting live on the social media platform, customers were given the chance to ask questions and interact with the company’s salesperson in real time as he gave demonstrations of the company’s various zip-blind products.
Business owners like Ms Chong and Mr Chew are hoping that people would continue life as normal, albeit taking the necessary precautions.
Or as NTU’s Asst Prof Liew put it: “We must have a courageous sense of normality and go on living life normally.”
Indeed, Prime Minister Lee noted on Friday that the COVID-19 outbreak is expected to last longer than SARS, with a greater impact already hitting the economy.
But he stressed: “We have to keep Singapore going and we have to keep making a living. Life has to go on.”
Now that a sense of normalcy has returned, questions remained. What caused all that panic buying, which had left some quarters fuming and embarrassed, and others to question whatever happened to decades of efforts aimed at building a resilient society?
Local community group, StandUpForSG distributing messages of encouragement from the public to healthcare workers at Yishun bus interchange on Feb 14. (Photo: TODAY / Najeer Yusof)
By Low Youjin
and Alif Chandra
17 Feb 2020 06:15AM (Updated: 17 Feb 2020 06:20AM)
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SINGAPORE: Tired and hungry after a long day at work, Mr Derrick Tay was looking forward to returning home for a warm shower, having something to eat and watching Netflix in bed.
But something caught his attention while he was mindlessly thumbing through his phone in the train around 9pm on Friday a week ago: Images of shoppers making a mad dash for groceries at supermarkets across the island.
While Singaporeans have earned a reputation for being kiasu (Hokkien for the fear of missing out), it was a scene that no one has witnessed here before - not even during the SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) crisis in 2003 or the H1N1 pandemic in 2009.
Just hours earlier, the Ministry of Health (MOH) had raised the Disease Outbreak Response System Condition (DORSCON) risk assessment level from Yellow to Orange.
READ: Coronavirus outbreak: Singapore raises DORSCON level to Orange; schools to suspend inter-school, external activities
READ: No need to rush for supplies, says Chan Chun Sing, amid reports of surge in demand
The DORSCON level was raised after several COVID-19 cases were detected in the Republic without any links to previous cases or travel histories to China.
“I was shocked by what I saw on my phone. When I got home, I told my parents about it,” Mr Tay, 31, said.
His mother had planned to do her weekly grocery run on Saturday but he told her to do it that night as he “wasn’t sure if there would be anything left for her to buy in the morning at the rate people were wiping out the shelves”.
Customers at Fairprice Finest in Bukit Timah Plaza on Feb 7, 2020, after the Dorscon alert level was changed to Orange. (Photo: TODAY/ Raj Nadarajan)
The mother and son then headed to their neighbourhood’s mini-mart in Choa Chu Kang.
“It was crazy that day. I’ve never seen so many people inside before, and at such a late hour. There was a queue that wound around the inside of the store,” said Mr Tay, who ended up having to wait for more than 30 minutes to pay for his purchases.
His basket of groceries held a bag of rice, four packs of assorted instant noodle flavours, a bottle of oil and several cans of tuna and sardine.
His 72-year-old mother, who helped carry two bags’ worth of toilet paper, told him that she could not remember Singaporeans panicking like this.
READ: COVID-19: Supply chain remains robust, 'panic buying' situation has stabilised, says Lawrence Wong
READ: Commentary: Singaporeans queued for toilet paper and instant noodles – there is no shame in that
Despite reassurances from Government leaders including Trade and Industry Minister Chan Chun Sing who took to Facebook to call for calm, Mr Tay and many Singaporeans were not entirely assured as the panic buying continued through the night.
In fact, Mr Tay was still in the queue when he read Mr Chan’s Facebook post but he went on to complete his purchases.
He said his actions were partly shaped by the mask situation. The Government had made clear that it has a stockpile of masks but this did not prevent long queues or stocks running out at shops and pharmacies.
What happened was that the Government had released five million masks to retailers over nine days last month but these were sold out within hours. As a result, the Government decided to distribute the masks from its stockpile directly to families, capped at four masks per household.
At the same time, it has reiterated that there is no need for people to wear a mask if they are well and it is more important to practise good personal hygiene such as washing hands.
Singapore, like many countries, has been grappling with a mask shortage since the health crisis started, sparked by a sudden surge in demand.
The Government has distributed masks from its stockpile directly to families, capped at four masks per household. (Photo: TODAY / Najeer Yusof)
While many like Mr Tay understood the constraints and logistical challenges involved, as far as they are concerned, the takeaway was that they had great difficulty getting masks from retailers and ultimately, had to rely on a limited number given out by the Government.
And even if supplies are in no danger of running out, Mr Tay argued that it would not hurt to be prepared.
“Anyway, if there’s no emergency, we’ll just take it as having done a few days’ worth of shopping beforehand,” he said.
While Mr Tay and his mother had joined the hordes of shoppers at the supermarkets, their purchase was relatively measured compared to the others: Pictures of shoppers with overflowing trolleys went viral, along with photographs and videos of empty vegetable and fruit baskets, and chillers devoid of meat.
Still, some like Dr Paul Tambyah felt it was understandable why these shoppers behaved the way they did.
READ: Commentary: Fighting fear is key part in battling COVID-19
READ: Commentary: The biggest work-from-home exercise may have just begun. How ready is Singapore?
Noting that Singapore, along with the rest of the world, would have to deal with the outbreak for the next several months, Dr Tambyah – who is president of the Asia-Pacific Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infection – noted that in such a situation, it was practical to keep some essential supplies on standby in case one has to be put on quarantine, for instance.
“As far as I know, when a quarantine officer comes to put a person on quarantine, they do not let you go shopping at the supermarket first,” he said.
To allay public anxiety, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong made a speech a day after the panic buying, assuring Singaporeans that there was no need to panic as the city was not being locked down, and there was ample supply of food for everyone.
READ: PM Lee urges Singapore to take courage amid coronavirus outbreak, see through stressful time together
Now that a sense of normalcy has returned, questions remain to be answered: What caused all that panic buying over that fateful weekend, which had left some quarters fuming - and embarrassed - over the behaviour of “ugly Singaporeans”, and others to question whatever happened to decades of efforts aimed at building a resilient society?
And what does it say about Singaporeans, many of whom have stoically and quietly got on with their lives, despite the uncertainty and disruptions to daily life?
THE SITUATION ELSEWHERE
So far, apart from Singapore, there have been no reports of panic buying in places outside of China. Residents in Thailand for example said the situation was calm and there has been no run on daily essentials.
Some experts believe that events in Hong Kong, which was gripped by scenes of panic buying recently, had influenced Singaporeans’ behaviour.
Mr Wong Bai Chun, a Hong Kong citizen, said that two weeks ago, there was a brief but acute shortage of toilet paper and other paper goods in the territory, which was sparked by an Internet rumour that the Chinese spring holiday was being extended and there would be insufficient supplies of such products.
READ: Hong Kong to boost face mask stocks with prison labour
READ: Commentary: China in a coronavirus lockdown – life is normal but not really
Mr Wong said the fear over paper shortage had spread to other goods in Hong Kong. “Now you can’t find rice anywhere,” said the 26-year-old who works in the finance industry.
Unlike Macau or mainland China, there are no regulations in Hong Kong to curb such behaviours, he added.
He said the panic buying and hoarding of daily essentials in Hong Kong stemmed from the shortage of disposable masks.
“At the moment, people are sourcing their masks from all over the world and there’s simply not enough,” he said. “Hong Kong doesn’t have the capacity to manufacture sufficient amounts of them.”
Mr Wong Bai Chun, a Hong Kong citizen, told TODAY that the city folks started hoarding long before Singaporeans did. He said it all started with the shortage of disposable masks. (Photo: Reuters)
While the panic buying in Hong Kong mirrors what happened in Singapore, the similarity ends there.
For one, there is no risk of Singapore running short of essential food and household items like toilet paper from short-term disruptions, such as the COVID-19 outbreak, said Minister for the Environment and Water Resources Masagos Zulkifli.
The country has managed to be resilient due to astute planning by the nation’s food agencies and its well-connected transport network, he said on Feb 10 during the launch of the 2020 Singapore Food Story. The food security strategy aims to meet 30 per cent of the country’s nutritional needs by 2030 using less than 1 per cent of its land area.
On the evening of the panic buying in Singapore, Mr Seah Kian Peng, who is the chief executive of supermarket cooperative NTUC Fairprice, also assured the public that there were sufficient supplies of daily essentials in the warehouse.
However, as experts pointed out, rationality and logic get cast aside when panic sets in.
“Research suggests that when people are in panic, the thinking part of our brain gets hijacked by the emotional system and we start to act illogically,” said a spokesperson for the Singapore Psychological Society (SPS) council. “Our ability to decide on our own is minimised.”
READ: Commentary: What to do with all these health rumours and forwarded messages in the time of COVID-19?
READ: Commentary: COVID-19 - when social media and chat groups complicate crisis communication
OTHER TRIGGERS
Among the possible factors behind the panic buying was negativity bias where people’s brains tend to focus more on negative information than positive ones, said the SPS spokesperson.
“Our brains are hardwired to register negative stimuli more readily and also to dwell and worry on them for a longer period of time,” the spokesperson said.
Furthermore, whenever there is a life-threatening epidemic or emergency, the notions of safety, protection, and self-preservation usually come into play.
The spokesperson also noted people also tend to follow others in the hope that the latter could get them out of a dangerous situation.
In Singapore’s case, this could be a possible reason why people started to hoard or buy things impulsively if everyone else around them was doing the same, or if they were told to do so on social media platforms.
This phenomenon of group-think results in irrational and dysfunctional thinking and outcomes.
“In this case, our brains focus more on the fear generated rather than on the reassurance given,” said the spokesperson.
Mr Lars Voedisch, the managing director of public relations firm PRecious Communications, said that such behaviour is triggered by one or two initial incidents which then get amplified by social media.
“(This leads) to a snowball effect of more and more people thinking of it, then hearing from the first people acting on their fear, sharing about it and through that fuelling the whole panic,” he said.
The images of empty shelves circulating on social media played a big part, said Singapore Management University sociologist Paulin Straughan.
“This meant that people were no longer reacting to rumours that essentials might run out, but this new development itself,” she said. “Which is: The shelves are empty. Better start to go now.”
Shoppers at Fairprice Finest in Bukit Timah Plaza reaching out for toilet paper even before it got stocked in the shelves. (Photo: TODAY / Raj Nadarajan)
Professor Straughan, whose research interests include medical sociology that encompasses infectious diseases, said it did not help that the public was seeing these images circulated on social media late in the night. As a result, these became the abiding images for many Singaporeans overnight.
“For the next 12 hours, the shelves remain empty (in their minds),” she said. “And that’s 12 hours of festering, and it entrenches (the fear that there are no supplies).”
Agreeing with Mr Voedisch’s observation about social media, Prof Straughan reiterated that while technology has helped to disseminate information a lot faster, it has similarly allowed misinformation to spread just as quickly as well.
This was not something that Singaporeans had to worry about during the past virus outbreaks, she added.
The SPS council spokesperson noted that when the COVID-19 virus was first made known, there was an overwhelming amount of news and social media coverage.
READ: What you need to know about additional precautionary measures under DORSCON Orange
“When the DORSCON Orange was finally announced, it became a trigger tantamount to saying ‘the coronavirus has arrived’, resulting in the accompanying hoarding behaviour as response,” the spokesperson said.
Nanyang Technological University (NTU) Professor May Oo Lwin, whose research interest at the Wee Kim Wee School of Communication and Information (WKWSCI) includes strategic and health communications, said it is likely that the public was responding to certain levels of fear and stress that the deluge of messages had aroused.
She explained that scientists have pointed to a phenomenon where communication leading to fear and stressful emotions can cause unintended consequences.
Such messages, she said, needed to be concurrently countered with provision of strategies for coping with perceived threats.
“In this particular case, all the media information is likely to have induced strong emotive elements which were managed by some population segments by embracing these forms of rational or irrational, but culturally symbolic, behaviours,” said Prof Lwin.
In other words, some segments of the population “may undertake actions based around daily priorities to respond to their perceptions of the threat”, said the health communications expert.
For example, in extreme cases of crisis like an earthquake, people could be seen taking their television sets while evacuating, she noted.
That could explain why stacks of toilet paper were snapped up by Singaporeans during the panic buying. Prof Straughan had another theory: They were relatively cheap and easy to hoard. “We all want to do something to make ourselves feel better,” she quipped.
PUBLIC COMMS "COULD HAVE BEEN BETTER"
Communications experts said the panic-buying in Singapore might have been avoided if the information disseminated by the authorities had been clearer.
“The problem with the message was that it was too bureaucratic at the start,” said Assistant Professor Liew Kai Khiun, who teaches at NTU's WKWSCI. “Much of the Government’s message involved military terms (and) colour codes."
Prof Straughan agreed, noting that the definition of DORSCON Orange was not explained enough as well.
DORSCON is a colour-coded framework that shows the current disease situation.
Orange refers to a situation in which a virus is spreading in Singapore but not widely, and is being contained. Previously, the risk assessment level was at Yellow, signifying that the virus was severe and could infect from person to person, but was chiefly occurring outside Singapore.
The highest level, Red, indicates that the virus is spreading widely and can result in major disruption such as closing schools.
“Some people didn’t know what it meant. All they saw was the visual,” said Prof Straughan. “There are four levels. Green, Yellow, Orange and Red. Red is bad, everybody knows that right? Green is good. Now Orange. It is closer to Red than it is to Green. So visually, it lights up all your flags.”
LISTEN: Getting to grips with DORSCON orange in Singapore's fight against COVID-19, a Heart of the Matter podcast episode
READ: Commentary: Don’t forget the vulnerable in the fight against COVID-19
Asst Prof Liew pointed out while the message from the authorities was accurate, it did not cater to the layman. To that end, they could have used dialect or Singlish to reach out more effectively, he noted.
During the SARS outbreak in 2003, local sitcom character Phua Chu Kang was used to educate Singaporeans on the importance of washing their hands. This, he said, was an effective way of reaching out to the public, and many people still remember it today.
A leaked MOH press release a few hours before the official DORSCON Orange announcement, which left many befuddled, might have also fuelled the public panic.
The press release was circulated on social media and through messaging platforms such as WhatsApp.
Up till this incident, Prof Straughan felt that the Government had been doing well in being upfront with Singaporeans about the virus situation. But when the press release was prematurely leaked out, it created some confusion.
She said it did not help that recipients of the leaked document were initially told by others that it was fake news, only to be informed by the authorities a few hours later that it was indeed true.
Such contradictory information would have led some to question if the authorities were trying to hide something, she said.
The authorities have yet to announce the source of the leak, but Trade and Industry Minister Chan said on Feb 9 that the various agencies involved in tackling the virus will remind their staff that they have a professional responsibility not to prematurely share information that has not been finalised.
Despite these short-comings in public communications, some experts felt that Prime Minister Lee’s nine-minute long speech on Feb 8 went some way in restoring a sense of normalcy.
The SPS council spokesperson said Mr Lee’s message gave people very concrete actions that “handed back a measure of control to people whose sense of control felt threatened”.
Mr Voedisch of PRecious Communications said having the Prime Minister step in to address the public helped, because it went beyond technocratic statements and directly addressed what people were concerned with.
“While authorities should not get emotional when communicating, they have to be empathetic appealing to the hearts and minds of the audience,” said Mr Voedisch.
However, he was uncertain if an address by Mr Lee to the public at an earlier juncture would have helped.
Instead, he said that the authorities should have foreseen the responses from the public as part of proper scenario planning with “ready-to-go action plans”.
Also, they should have anticipated and addressed the public’s concerns and fears across the different platforms, he added.
THE RAMIFICATIONS
Mr Chan, the Trade and Industry Minister, had spoken out against panic buying and hoarding behaviour by a “small segment of Singaporeans”, even though he noted that this was to be expected.
In a Facebook post on Feb 8, he noted that it was “natural” in times of uncertainty that people want to protect ourselves and the ones that they love.
“However I urge all of us to think of the larger communities we belong to. Hoarding means that we deprive others of things that they really need,” he said. “That could be your neighbour who needs to buy rice for her children’s meals or even organisations looking after the vulnerable who require cleaning supplies.”
Speaking to the media the next day, Mr Chan also said that the panic buying at supermarkets will signal to other countries that Singaporeans cannot react well in times of crisis and could be taken advantage of in the future.
One potential consequence, he warned, is that suppliers and retailers who observe the panic buying might take advantage of the situation and jack up prices of goods.
Ultimately, the hoarding behaviour was “a fight-or-flight response that has arisen primarily from fear and a need for self-preservation”, said the SPS council spokesperson.
And this fear can breed distrust and hostility towards others. “With a constant overemphasis on fear, people may start to behave in less caring or more complacent ways in order to maintain self-preservation,” the spokesperson added.
HERE COMES THE GOOD
Still, despite the panic buying grabbing the headlines, Mr Chan and other government leaders took pains to point out that a large majority of Singaporeans had been “calm and rational”.
Many Singaporeans had come forward to thank the cashiers and supermarket staff constantly working behind the scenes to restock the empty shelves, Mr Chan noted.
Countless others have also stepped in to do their part for their fellow citizens, with numerous ground-up initiatives started in the community.
READ: 'We intend to stick it out with them': Volunteers write notes, send food to healthcare workers fighting COVID-19
READ: Commentary: COVID-19 the new national test for Singapore. How are we doing?
(From left) Sisters Ruirui and Rui'en delivering breakfast to a healthcare worker on Feb 8, 2020. (Photo: Tong Yee/ Facebook)
QUIET RESILIENCE
Away from the public spotlight and media glare, ordinary Singaporeans have got on with their lives, despite the disruptions and worries brought on by the COVID-19 outbreak.
Scores of Singaporeans — such as taxi and private-hire drivers, as well as those in the retail and tourism industries — have seen their livelihoods taken a hit. Others have had to adjust to working from home as business continuity plans swung into place.
Cleaners, for example, are putting in longer hours while healthcare workers not only have to work longer each day but are also putting themselves at risk on the frontlines.
A 23-year-old outbreak nurse who works with COVID-19 patients said that while her family understands the risks of her occupation, it does not stop them from worrying.
“Most nurses are worried too, but it’s our job and this is what we do for a living,” said the nurse, who wanted to be known only as Sharmaine due to the sensitivity of her role.
When she was first assigned to handle suspected COVID-19 cases, Sharmaine said she was scared as no one knew what exactly they were dealing with.
“But over time, I grew immune to it, even if a patient were to test positive for the virus. Now I don't feel so scared anymore.”
However, she feels disappointed at the discrimination against healthcare workers shown by some Singaporeans, even as many others expressed gratitude for their work.
“It truly is demoralising when you hear of such incidents. We feel ostracised at times because all we want to do is perform our job and go home,” she said. “But we continue to keep an open mind because we are the first line of defence.”
Messages from the public thanking healthcare workers for their hard work. These messages were put up on Facebook with the hashtag #braveheartsg, in response to the initiative by community group StandUpForSG. (Photo: Facebook/Muru Nagaraju, Jocelyn Chng, JJ Huang, Dawn Yip)
A taxi driver, who wanted to be known as Mr Ahmad, said he is not scared and has no qualms about picking up healthcare workers.
Although his wife worries for him, as there is no way of knowing whether a passenger might be infected with the virus, the 56-year-old CityCab driver said he still has to continue driving to support his family.
The virus outbreak, he added, had drastically affected his earnings lately, though he declined to reveal by how much.
“So far, even my friends (who are also taxi drivers) have all been continuing to work as per normal,” said Mr Ahmad.
The only difference is that he has taken some precautions, such as winding down the windows to air his vehicle after dropping off each passenger and disinfecting his steering wheel with Dettol, he added.
READ: Commentary: Looks like containment of COVID-19 not as effective as we had hoped
READ: Commentary: Hot and humid weather may end COVID-19 outbreak – as well as the development of a vaccine
For 37-year-old father Lucas Chiam, he sought to turn the situation around by using it as an opportunity to spend more time with his two sons, aged six and four.
Due to COVID-19, the lecturer and his wife decided to limit their children’s outings to the parks and playgrounds, where they would typically just keep an eye out for the youngsters’ safety.
Instead, they introduced the boys to home-based activities which could involve the entire family, such as arts and craft, reading and even playing Xbox console games.
“I think the best we can do right now is to stay positive. This is an opportunity to bond with the kids, work on some home improvement tasks and plan for the year ahead,” Mr Chiam said.
“Maybe through these tough times, we can develop some new good habits for the family that will stay with us even after the threat is over.”
Some businesses have had to adjust their operating models due to the outbreak.
Ms Jazz Chong, the owner and director of contemporary gallery Ode To Art, has noticed fewer people visiting the gallery as well as the Raffles City Shopping Centre, where the gallery is located.
“With the virus outbreak becoming more severe, we have now decided to take the extra measure of bringing the art to our clients directly,” she said. “If they like the work then it can remain in their home, making it extra convenient for them as they do not even have to leave their house.”
Meanwhile, curtain maker and supplier MC2 held its first Facebook Live event on Feb 11.
Mr Wilson Chew, the founder and managing director of the company, said: “During this time of crisis when people may be worried about attending events with crowds, we thought of using Facebook Live.”
By broadcasting live on the social media platform, customers were given the chance to ask questions and interact with the company’s salesperson in real time as he gave demonstrations of the company’s various zip-blind products.
Business owners like Ms Chong and Mr Chew are hoping that people would continue life as normal, albeit taking the necessary precautions.
Or as NTU’s Asst Prof Liew put it: “We must have a courageous sense of normality and go on living life normally.”
Indeed, Prime Minister Lee noted on Friday that the COVID-19 outbreak is expected to last longer than SARS, with a greater impact already hitting the economy.
But he stressed: “We have to keep Singapore going and we have to keep making a living. Life has to go on.”
KNN why people must eat lice during food shortage time KNN
If there is a shortage or rice,,other stuff like noodles etc also will be short,,and ppl still have to eat
How is this different from the flu?
More than 80% of COVID-19 patients have mild disease and recover: WHO chief
A family wears protective face masks as they walk in front of an almost-empty shopping mall in Beijing on Feb 16, 2020. (Photo: AFP/Greg Baker)
18 Feb 2020 09:36AM
(Updated: 18 Feb 2020 11:37AM)
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GENEVA: The new novel coronavirus only causes mild disease for 80 per cent of infected patients, said the World Health Organization on Monday (Feb 17).
The COVID-19 virus death toll has surpassed 1,800 in China, where it has infected more than 70,500.
READ: Coronavirus emergency 'holds a very grave threat' for world: WHO
Speaking to reporters, WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that 14 per cent of patients would have severe diseases such as pneumonia.
"Around five percent of cases are considered critical with possible multi-organ failure, septic shock and respiratory failure and, in some cases, death," he added.
Tedros also said there were "relatively few cases" among children and more research was needed to understand why.
The WHO chief also warned against "blanket measures" over the novel coronavirus outbreak, pointing out the epidemic outside of China was only affecting a "tiny" proportion of the population.
WHO officials rejected the suggestion that all cruises should be halted to avoid risking a new nest of infection like the one on the coronavirus-hit Diamond Princess off Japan.
READ: Beijing to fast-track new mask factory in COVID-19 fight
"Measures should be taken proportional to the situation. Blanket measures may not help," Tedros stressed.
The outbreak has battered manufacturing and tourism across the region and led to multiple travel restrictions including for flights and cruises.
"If we are going to disrupt every cruise ship in the world on the off chance that there might be some potential contact with some potential pathogen then where do we stop?" said Michael Ryan, head of WHO's health emergencies programme.
Ryan said that even at the epicentre of the crisis in the city of Wuhan in central Hubei Province, the "attack rate" - a measure of the speed of spread of the virus - was four per 100,000.
"This is a very serious outbreak and it has the potential to grow, but we need to balance that in terms of the number of people infected. Outside Hubei this epidemic is affecting a very, very tiny, tiny proportion of people," he said.
Tedros also referred to an apparent decline in new cases of the disease in recent days but said that the trend "must be interpreted very cautiously".
"Trends can change as new populations are affected. It is too early to tell if this reported decline will continue. Every scenario is still on the table," he said.
More than 80% of COVID-19 patients have mild disease and recover: WHO chief
A family wears protective face masks as they walk in front of an almost-empty shopping mall in Beijing on Feb 16, 2020. (Photo: AFP/Greg Baker)
18 Feb 2020 09:36AM
(Updated: 18 Feb 2020 11:37AM)
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GENEVA: The new novel coronavirus only causes mild disease for 80 per cent of infected patients, said the World Health Organization on Monday (Feb 17).
The COVID-19 virus death toll has surpassed 1,800 in China, where it has infected more than 70,500.
READ: Coronavirus emergency 'holds a very grave threat' for world: WHO
Speaking to reporters, WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that 14 per cent of patients would have severe diseases such as pneumonia.
"Around five percent of cases are considered critical with possible multi-organ failure, septic shock and respiratory failure and, in some cases, death," he added.
Tedros also said there were "relatively few cases" among children and more research was needed to understand why.
WHO WARNS AGAINST "BLANKET MEASURES"
The WHO chief also warned against "blanket measures" over the novel coronavirus outbreak, pointing out the epidemic outside of China was only affecting a "tiny" proportion of the population.
WHO officials rejected the suggestion that all cruises should be halted to avoid risking a new nest of infection like the one on the coronavirus-hit Diamond Princess off Japan.
READ: Beijing to fast-track new mask factory in COVID-19 fight
"Measures should be taken proportional to the situation. Blanket measures may not help," Tedros stressed.
The outbreak has battered manufacturing and tourism across the region and led to multiple travel restrictions including for flights and cruises.
"If we are going to disrupt every cruise ship in the world on the off chance that there might be some potential contact with some potential pathogen then where do we stop?" said Michael Ryan, head of WHO's health emergencies programme.
Ryan said that even at the epicentre of the crisis in the city of Wuhan in central Hubei Province, the "attack rate" - a measure of the speed of spread of the virus - was four per 100,000.
"This is a very serious outbreak and it has the potential to grow, but we need to balance that in terms of the number of people infected. Outside Hubei this epidemic is affecting a very, very tiny, tiny proportion of people," he said.
Tedros also referred to an apparent decline in new cases of the disease in recent days but said that the trend "must be interpreted very cautiously".
"Trends can change as new populations are affected. It is too early to tell if this reported decline will continue. Every scenario is still on the table," he said.
A decade before coronavirus, I covered the swine flu pandemic. Here's how it compares to COVID-19 - ABC News
Posted 9h
Fear of COVID-19 has spread around the world.(Reuters: Gonzalo Fuentes)
It was a sight I won't easily forget.
As a medical reporter, I'm used to being in hospitals and even in intensive care units. It's part of my job.
But seeing pregnant women hooked up to life support, desperately trying to fight off the effects of swine flu in the grip of the 2009 pandemic, was confronting.
This disease affected people who don't often get the flu, afflicting young adults whose previously healthy lungs became white and cloudy with pneumonia.
While most recovered, many did not.
By the end of 2009, more than 37,000 Australians had been diagnosed with swine flu.
More than 190 people were dead.
Worldwide, the US Centres for Disease Control estimates swine flu killed as many as 575,000 people. Eighty per cent of them were under 65.
The facts
Let's contrast the swine flu epidemic with the spread of the novel coronavirus — or COVID-19 as it is now known.
The new virus is sweeping through parts of China and infecting small numbers all over the world.
It began in China's Hubei province, where it remains in epidemic proportions and is without doubt a serious public health emergency.
Hubei's capital Wuhan, which is home to more than 11 million people, is in lockdown.(Wikimedia Commons)
COVID-19 has now spread to more than 20 countries, including Australia.
Along with the spread of the virus has been the wave of misinformation on social media about how the illness is transmitted.
Fake news telling people they could contract coronavirus from contaminated food or packages from China prompted Australian health authorities to do some myth-busting.
While there was some misinformation online about swine flu — no, it didn't come from eating pork — it's nothing like what's being said about COVID-19.
NSW chief medical officer Kerry Chant told the public to ignore "false and misleading rumours, posts on social media and inaccurate reports" about the coronavirus and instead to seek reputable sources for information, such as Health Department websites.
But despite pleas for calm, what we have seen with COVID-19 is a public response to the threat that at times seems quite out of proportion to what is actually happening here.
In Australia, there have been fewer than 20 confirmed cases. Not one has ended up in intensive care.
Patients have been quarantined in hospital wards or told to self-isolate for 14 days.
Of those kept in hospital, many were well enough to go home.
Comparisons to terrorism
There's no doubt that the strong public health measures taken at state, territory and federal levels have worked in containing the outbreak and stopping it from spreading.
Shops and restaurants in areas with higher concentrations of Asian populations have been deserted, as Australians panic-buy masks and hand sanitiser to protect themselves.
So, if the response from Australia's public health leaders has been effective — and it has — why is the public so scared?
That could be due in part to the strong language used by international health experts.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) warned a vaccine was at least 18 months away, and that the outbreak could pose a "very grave threat" with consequences greater "than any terrorist attack".
Professor Kanta Subbara, the director of WHO's Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, said the most worrying thing was how easily the virus spread from person to person.
She said closing borders in China was an "unprecedented and draconian measure", which would probably only delay the disease's spread by a couple of days rather than completely halt it.
WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus says COVID-19 should be viewed as "public enemy number one".Existing anxieties heighten fears
There will be important lessons learned from how the public responds to this outbreak, Public Health Association of Australia president Terry Slevin said.
"The rapidly changing information and almost hourly updates in everyone's news feeds on the changing number of cases and deaths keeps highlighting what a big outbreak this is," he said.
"What we haven't been as good at, is to separate out the number of cases in China compared to Australia.
Remember too, he said, that even before COVID-19, many Australians were already feeling anxious.
After unprecedented bushfires and smoke-filled skies, many of us were unsettled.
"With that heightened sense of anxiety, people will feel threatened."
China says its sweeping efforts to contain COVID-19 are working.(Reuters: Bobby Yip)
When swine flu hit our shores, the public largely had confidence that health authorities were doing all they could to minimise the risk.
This time, the measures are more drastic. With things like quarantine and travel bans in place to stem the spread of COVID-19, Australians can feel relatively reassured.
People who have contracted COVID-19 here have had a mild illness.
Experts call for cautious optimism
"Currently, we are safe," said Queensland virologist Ian Mackay.
"When travel restrictions come off, that could change, so we have some time to think about how we wash our hands, that we should stop touching our face so frequently to prevent the risk of self-inoculation," Professor Mackay said.
UNSW virologist Bill Rawlinson from UNSW believes we should feel "cautiously optimistic, yet remain vigilant".
"It's too early to breathe a sigh of relief," Professor Rawlinson said.
"We are not seeing groups like pregnant women affected by COVID-19 like we did from swine flu."
Another enduring memory of swine flu was when I interviewed a woman in her early 40s whose otherwise healthy husband died from the disease on a flight back from London.
What everyone regarded a mild illness had killed a healthy man in the prime of his life.
As we filmed her leafing through their wedding album, her tears flowed. She was inconsolable.
So far, we haven't seen that kind of devastation here in Australia with COVID-19.
And we can take comfort in the fact local authorities are doing their level best to ensure we don't.
Posted 9h
It was a sight I won't easily forget.
As a medical reporter, I'm used to being in hospitals and even in intensive care units. It's part of my job.
But seeing pregnant women hooked up to life support, desperately trying to fight off the effects of swine flu in the grip of the 2009 pandemic, was confronting.
This disease affected people who don't often get the flu, afflicting young adults whose previously healthy lungs became white and cloudy with pneumonia.
While most recovered, many did not.
By the end of 2009, more than 37,000 Australians had been diagnosed with swine flu.
More than 190 people were dead.
Worldwide, the US Centres for Disease Control estimates swine flu killed as many as 575,000 people. Eighty per cent of them were under 65.
The facts
Let's contrast the swine flu epidemic with the spread of the novel coronavirus — or COVID-19 as it is now known.
The new virus is sweeping through parts of China and infecting small numbers all over the world.
It began in China's Hubei province, where it remains in epidemic proportions and is without doubt a serious public health emergency.
COVID-19 has now spread to more than 20 countries, including Australia.
Along with the spread of the virus has been the wave of misinformation on social media about how the illness is transmitted.
Fake news telling people they could contract coronavirus from contaminated food or packages from China prompted Australian health authorities to do some myth-busting.
While there was some misinformation online about swine flu — no, it didn't come from eating pork — it's nothing like what's being said about COVID-19.
NSW chief medical officer Kerry Chant told the public to ignore "false and misleading rumours, posts on social media and inaccurate reports" about the coronavirus and instead to seek reputable sources for information, such as Health Department websites.
But despite pleas for calm, what we have seen with COVID-19 is a public response to the threat that at times seems quite out of proportion to what is actually happening here.
In Australia, there have been fewer than 20 confirmed cases. Not one has ended up in intensive care.
Patients have been quarantined in hospital wards or told to self-isolate for 14 days.
Of those kept in hospital, many were well enough to go home.
Comparisons to terrorism
There's no doubt that the strong public health measures taken at state, territory and federal levels have worked in containing the outbreak and stopping it from spreading.
Shops and restaurants in areas with higher concentrations of Asian populations have been deserted, as Australians panic-buy masks and hand sanitiser to protect themselves.
So, if the response from Australia's public health leaders has been effective — and it has — why is the public so scared?
That could be due in part to the strong language used by international health experts.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) warned a vaccine was at least 18 months away, and that the outbreak could pose a "very grave threat" with consequences greater "than any terrorist attack".
Professor Kanta Subbara, the director of WHO's Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, said the most worrying thing was how easily the virus spread from person to person.
She said closing borders in China was an "unprecedented and draconian measure", which would probably only delay the disease's spread by a couple of days rather than completely halt it.
There will be important lessons learned from how the public responds to this outbreak, Public Health Association of Australia president Terry Slevin said.
"The rapidly changing information and almost hourly updates in everyone's news feeds on the changing number of cases and deaths keeps highlighting what a big outbreak this is," he said.
"What we haven't been as good at, is to separate out the number of cases in China compared to Australia.
Remember too, he said, that even before COVID-19, many Australians were already feeling anxious.
After unprecedented bushfires and smoke-filled skies, many of us were unsettled.
"With that heightened sense of anxiety, people will feel threatened."
When swine flu hit our shores, the public largely had confidence that health authorities were doing all they could to minimise the risk.
This time, the measures are more drastic. With things like quarantine and travel bans in place to stem the spread of COVID-19, Australians can feel relatively reassured.
People who have contracted COVID-19 here have had a mild illness.
Experts call for cautious optimism
"Currently, we are safe," said Queensland virologist Ian Mackay.
"When travel restrictions come off, that could change, so we have some time to think about how we wash our hands, that we should stop touching our face so frequently to prevent the risk of self-inoculation," Professor Mackay said.
UNSW virologist Bill Rawlinson from UNSW believes we should feel "cautiously optimistic, yet remain vigilant".
"It's too early to breathe a sigh of relief," Professor Rawlinson said.
"We are not seeing groups like pregnant women affected by COVID-19 like we did from swine flu."
Another enduring memory of swine flu was when I interviewed a woman in her early 40s whose otherwise healthy husband died from the disease on a flight back from London.
What everyone regarded a mild illness had killed a healthy man in the prime of his life.
As we filmed her leafing through their wedding album, her tears flowed. She was inconsolable.
So far, we haven't seen that kind of devastation here in Australia with COVID-19.
And we can take comfort in the fact local authorities are doing their level best to ensure we don't.
While I appreciate those who keep telling us COVID-19 is like the flu, nothing much to worry about, we are over-reacting, I will still be mindful of the precautions needed. No harm in being careful, better than being bochap. It is not business as usual, but we try to maintain normalcy.
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