The data is in — stop the panic and end the total isolation

[Thick Face Black Heart]

That is because of our lockdown system in placed. If its run wild, the number of critical case will goes up, our ICU resources will hit the limit it can handle. Those that do not have the ICU resources will surely die. That is when the death rate will shoot as high as 10% with respect to the confirm case just like in Italy. This is precisely what happen in Italy that they have to give up on the elderly access to ICU, ventilator resources to save the younger populations.

Although Sweden insist its medical facility still hasn't hit its max capacity, I suspect they are lying as their death statistic with respect to the confirm case is too similar in terms of percentage to the Italy. Pretty sure its hell now in Sweden.

I've been saying the same thing, but there are a couple of guys here who refuse to see this POV. The hospital system collapsing is the worst possible outcome, not to mention tons of deaths which were preventable.

And for those who compare WuFlu to regular flu deaths, well, in US, it is already near 70,000 dead. Leongsam said a bad flu year is around 80,000 dead in the US. Well, for the WuFlu, US achieved 70,000 dead in just 2 months (March and April). There is simply no comparison here. The WuFlu, in 2 months, has killed almost as many people as a bad flu season would have in an entire year.

 

[winnipegjets]

The Trump base wants to follow the Swedish approach in dealing with covid-19. Trump should give it to them.

 

[Leongsam]

That is because of our lockdown system in placed. If its run wild, the number of critical case will goes up, our ICU resources will hit the limit it can handle. Those that do not have the ICU resources will surely die. That is when the death rate will shoot as high as 10% with respect to the confirm case just like in Italy. This is precisely what happen in Italy that they have to give up on the elderly access to ICU, ventilator resources to save the younger populations.

Although Sweden insist its medical facility still hasn't hit its max capacity, I suspect they are lying as their death statistic with respect to the confirm case is too similar in terms of percentage to the Italy. Pretty sure its hell now in Sweden.

All you're doing is regurgitating the justification for the lockdowns which turned out to be erroneous in the first place.

Let's put the effectiveness of lockdowns aside then and deal just with the mortality rate.

We were told at the start that the fatality rate was greater than 2%. Many put it at above 3%. I even saw figures of 7%.

So it has been confirmed that around 15,000 dorm dwellers have tested positive so far. How many have died? How many will die?

If the mortality rate is 2% then we will be expecting at least 300 deaths from the dorms. Let's revisit this thread in a month's time and we'll see what the figure is.

If the figure really is 2% mortality I am all for lockdowns.

Based upon the current data however Covid-19 is no worse than the flu. We don't lock down for flu so why do we lock down for covid-19?

 

[vamjok]

All you're doing is regurgitating the justification for the lockdowns which turned out to be erroneous in the first place.

Let's put the effectiveness of lockdowns aside then and deal just with the mortality rate.

We were told at the start that the fatality rate was greater than 2%. Many put it at above 3%. I even saw figures of 7%.

So it has been confirmed that around 15,000 dorm dwellers have tested positive so far. How many have died? How many will die?

If the mortality rate is 2% then we will be expecting at least 300 deaths from the dorms. Let's revisit this thread in a month's time and we'll see what the figure is.

If the figure really is 2% mortality I am all for lockdowns.

Based upon the current data however Covid-19 is no worse than the flu. We don't lock down for flu so why do we lock down for covid-19?

as said, the death rate is low now because our ICU is not saturated. Why our ICU is not saturated? that is because of Singapore version of soft lockdown. This picture is the best in explaining everything in words. As long we cross the line (healthcare capacity), that is when our health system is stress and all hell break loose. Then we will have crazy death rate like what we see in US, Italty, and Sweden.

If this you also don't get it nothing I can help you to understand our viewpoint.

 

[Leongsam]

I've been saying the same thing, but there are a couple of guys here who refuse to see this POV. The hospital system collapsing is the worst possible outcome, not to mention tons of deaths which were preventable.

And for those who compare WuFlu to regular flu deaths, well, in US, it is already near 70,000 dead. Leongsam said a bad flu year is around 80,000 dead in the US. Well, for the WuFlu, US achieved 70,000 dead in just 2 months (March and April). There is simply no comparison here. The WuFlu, in 2 months, has killed almost as many people as a bad flu season would have in an entire year.

The flu season lasts around 3 months not an entire year.

Even if the death toll for Covid-19 ends up at 100,000 it is still only 20% higher than a bad flu year and would not justify shutting down the world's economy.

Neither have we even started to add up the deaths that were caused by the fact that because of the attention focused on covid-19 the rest of the departments pretty much went on holiday. No surgeries, no chemotherapy, no diagnosis of new cancer cases. Everything was thrown at Covid-19 to the detriment of all else.

The other aspect of covid-19 that everybody seems to ignore is that fact that the average age of those that die from Covid-19 is in the 80s while the under forties are almost unscathed.

Here is the data again for the state of Massachusetts.

We are using a sledgehammer to kill a fly!

556/100,000 deaths for the 80+ = 0.56% mortality. That's bad but nothing like the 2% or more that was used to justify lockdowns.

less than 9/100.000 for those under 60 = that's less than 0.009% which is the same as an average flu year. Tell me why can't the 0 to 59 age group get on with their lives. If they don't work, earn money, produces stuff and pay taxes there'll be no money to keep the rest homes going in the first place.

The old folk need to be looked after, as they always should be, and that would be by using all the available technology to keep them isolated from those who need to earn a living. If we are about to go to Mars surely this earthly problem of protecting the old can easily be solved and implemented.

 

[Leongsam]

as said, the death rate is low now because our ICU is not saturated. Why our ICU is not saturated? that is because of Singapore version of soft lockdown. This picture is the best in explaining everything in words. As long we cross the line (healthcare capacity), that is when our health system is stress and all hell break loose. Then we will have crazy death rate like what we see in US, Italty, and Sweden.

If this you also don't get it nothing I can help you to understand our viewpoint.

Out of the 17,000 case count there are only 22 in ICU. The forecasted figures for those that needed ventilators never materialised either. Even in the USA the excess of ventilators are being carted around the country because nobody needs them.

The data was wrong from the start but nobody wants to put their hand up and admit they were wrong. The experts around the world are no different from the PAP. They started on the wrong track and keep going because doing a U turn is simply not on the cards in today's crazy world.

 

[vamjok]

by the way how he attach the file make the picture so big, mine look like a pussy cat

 

[Leongsam]

by the way how he attach the file make the picture so big, mine look like a pussy cat

You need to select the "full image" option when you attach a file. I have edited it for you.

 

[vamjok]

Out of the 17,000 case count there are only 22 in ICU. The forecasted figures for those that needed ventilators never materialised either. Even in the USA the excess of ventilators are being carted around the country because nobody needs them.

The data was wrong from the start but nobody wants to put their hand up and admit they were wrong. The experts around the world are no different from the PAP. They started on the wrong track and keep going because doing a U turn is simply not on the cards in today's crazy world.

lets assume this situation it run wild in a population of 6 million for ease of calculation. given how infectious it is, lets say approximately 70% of us has it, that is 4.2 million. Assume the infection rate based on the 17 000 figure, we will have 22 cases. so 4.2 million, we will have over ~5500 cases for ICU. FYI just for this sickness. I just google we have only about 335 ICU bed.

it means we will be lacking of approx 5000 bed for those that need ICU cases. and that is excluding people who need it for other reason. Constantly filling up our ICU bed just for COVID19 does not even sound logical, that why current measure has to be in place.

 

[Leongsam]

lets assume this situation it run wild in a population of 6 million for ease of calculation. given how infectious it is, lets say approximately 70% of us has it, that is 4.2 million. Assume the infection rate based on the 17 000 figure, we will have 22 cases. so 4.2 million, we will have over ~5500 cases for ICU. FYI just for this sickness. I just google we have only about 335 ICU bed.

it means we will be lacking of approx 5000 bed for those that need ICU cases. and that is excluding people who need it for other reason. Constantly filling up our ICU bed just for COVID19 does not even sound logical, that why current measure has to be in place.

17,000 is the number of cases that have tested positive not the number of infections.

The number of infections is way higher than the case count simply because most people don't even know they have it plus you have factor in the age when you work out the potential number in ICU.

You cannot apply the same ratio of 22/17,000 to all age groups.

The reality of the situation is that the data is skewed considerably by the 80+ senior citizens so the maths required to work out the ICU requirements will need to take into account the age distributions in the population.

Almost everyone has got their sums wrong. A giant medical support vessel was sent to New York and it was hardly used because the numbers never materialised.

Surely we are far enough into this charade to start admitting mistakes and recalibrating efforts to concentrate on those at risk while allowing those who are not to go back to work.

 

[vamjok]

anyway assuming the 335 figure is real, I am glad we are only at ~6% of our max capacity. for now things are looking good for those that need the resources.

 

[eatshitndie]

I've been saying the same thing, but there are a couple of guys here who refuse to see this POV. The hospital system collapsing is the worst possible outcome, not to mention tons of deaths which were preventable.

And for those who compare WuFlu to regular flu deaths, well, in US, it is already near 70,000 dead. Leongsam said a bad flu year is around 80,000 dead in the US. Well, for the WuFlu, US achieved 70,000 dead in just 2 months (March and April). There is simply no comparison here. The WuFlu, in 2 months, has killed almost as many people as a bad flu season would have in an entire year.

all these excuses are now moot. game changer has arrived. u.s. will ease lockdown very soon as a treatment proves successful in 3 trials for acute patients in the icu. one of the trials involves over 1k patients. with patients recovering faster in icu and being released to homes, the emergency is pretty much over as icu cases drop, relieving vacancies for new acute patients. majority of the other patients have mild conditions and can be quarantined in less intensive care wards or transferred to large quarantine centers for observation and tests. this will be the national guideline for standard care, and states are expected to follow suit. now with a successful treatment, it's all politics. only the blue states with dem governors in charge will want a lockdown for as long as possible until the democratic convention or the november erections. they have unchecked power now using the virus as a pretext for curtailing the freedom and movement of residents and destroying the economy, and they are not going to relinquish it so easily. why should they when the economy is crashing and they can blame it on the sitting potus.

 

[bart12]

The solution cannot be worse than problem.. The world economy is heading toward depression as lock down continue

 

[quidnunc]

Correct me if I'm wrong. This debate over whether a lockdown, in the case here called circuit breaker, is an effective solution, or best solution for Singapore was never the subject of a commentary or opinion piece in our local media. I can't recall seeing a piece by any Straits Times journalist attempting to even come close to discussing the subject. By avoiding the discussion, SPH and others of its ilk have abdicated their role and done grave injustice to the nation. Unlike the media in other countries, namely the west and even the SCMP in HK, which engaged in healthy discussion on the merits and demerits of Sweden's approach, herd immunity, collateral damage of lockdown etc.

 

[a_korusawa]

Correct me if I'm wrong. This debate over whether a lockdown, in the case here called circuit breaker, is an effective solution, or best solution for Singapore was never the subject of a commentary or opinion piece in our local media. I can't recall seeing a piece by any Straits Times journalist attempting to even come close to discussing the subject. By avoiding the discussion, SPH and others of its ilk have abdicated their role and done grave injustice to the nation. Unlike the media in other countries, namely the west and even the SCMP in HK, which engaged in healthy discussion on the merits and demerits of Sweden's approach, herd immunity, collateral damage of lockdown etc.

cos this island do NOT permit investigational journalism. its only press releases i.e. telling all what the gahmen has decided
should there be discussion on how decision was made and result otherwise then the topics will become pofma straightaway even if its cut&paste from reliable sources even when sources were from themselves......

as said, dunno why ppl here still apply curve to determine the success of lockdown where CCB is only there to surface the assymptonmic carriers.
as long as such carriers exist or resurface will still raise a pandemic regardless that curve has flatten onot cos new hostings are found
testing, at this moment is best indication to decide if lockdown is necessary coz traceability will be pointless against assymptonmic carriers
- sillypore learnt this hard lesson from the import cases!
the real lockdown in the island was actually conducted against the migrant workers and their clusters!
but still . . . . it failed to contain the assymptonic carriers until 8000 test capacity reached to really nail down the spreads towards end of march into april ....
then the task force was able to circle the cluster individually with assurance before they can really identify the healthy ones to be moved from their dorms!

there's not much of economical reliefs whether CCB is lifted if the country remains lockdown from outside world - especially to such an island w/o internal resources ......
the country's economy needs to be recirculated else the billion reserves generated from multiple generations will only worth 2020 to 2021 . . . . . at this rate!