that's what i was hoping for...................
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SERIOUS Discussion On Soccer Betting...................
- Thread starter GOD IS MY DOG
- Start date
too much talk cock here, no serious and quality tips on the soccer matches of the day.
can Maximilian Chua-Heng come in and give us some predictions?
Yes yes... so that we can make a pile by betting the opposite.
Yes yes... so that we can make a pile by betting the opposite.
if he said home team win or draw, we shall bet away win.
if he said 0 goals, we shall bet 6 goals and above.
if he said home team win or draw, we shall bet away win.
if he said 0 goals, we shall bet 6 goals and above.
Err.. total goals depends because it will be affected after players are sold / bought.
For example..
FC Porto goals were significantly reduced after one of their star striker Falcao were sold to Atletico Madrid and thus leaving the task to HULK and other team members.
Bayern Munich would have conceded goals with the no. 2 keeper had they not bought over Germany's no. 1 goal keeper Manuel Neuer. And with Neuer keeping a clean sheet means that their players have to score more goals.
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if he said home team win or draw, we shall bet away win.
if he said 0 goals, we shall bet 6 goals and above.
Maximilian Chua-Heng is such a jinx ah?
I don't really want to talk about my sad story i just encountered recently.
how much u lost?
how much u lost?
I just lost my winnings nia.
chey, no heart pain lah. juz back to zero instead of -.
season still long, still got chance.
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chey, no heart pain lah. juz back to zero instead of -.
season still long, still got chance.
Pain ok. I need to waste time making bets again. I don't enjoy betting.
then dun bet lor.
anyway once u start betting, prepare to lose.
of course there r ppl who bet but nvr think they will lose.:*:
then dun bet lor.
anyway once u start betting, prepare to lose.
of course there r ppl who bet but nvr think they will lose.:*:
They gave me some bonus money though. If i play thru it 3 times i can withdraw it.
Best value bet tonite : Blackburn vs Arse-senile ...... draw binya...
Has anyone here get down to using the Poisson distribution to model football results. This has been research in this area by Maher (1982) and Dixon (1997). Implemented both in excel, but not sure if I had model the correlation factor for the bivariate poisson model between home and away correctly. Using the model to recognize value bet and coupled with Kelly criterion on staking may well be profitable for the discipline punter.
Had proved useful in a sense, made bets on tottenham vs live pool, blackburn vs arsenal, young lions and etoile and won on Asian handicap.
Had proved useful in a sense, made bets on tottenham vs live pool, blackburn vs arsenal, young lions and etoile and won on Asian handicap.
Can share how you did it?
Making a living out of soccer betting???
Even analysis can't help you much.
Team form (Home / Away)
Form of individual player.
How good the coach is.
Early red card changes the game play.
Two leg matches. (After winning 1st leg 6 - 0, they can afford to draw / lose by small margin the 2nd leg or field 2nd stringers.)
Injuries.
Luck.
And of course kelong.
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More from Maher paper, here http://img.90minut.pl/misc/maher.pdf
Basically a Poisson distribution model for scores will be adopted. In particular, if team i is playing at home against team j and the observed score is (x, y), we shall assume that X, is Poisson with mean a, that Y, is also Poisson with mean b.
a and b is relative to the strength of the teams and calculated from goals scored & conceded. Hence different team will have diffferent mean, which can be derive by maximum likelihood estimate (MLE).
The takeaway for this model is the probability of the match outcome i,e 1 X 2. which can then be used as a basis for identifying value bet, i.e. suppose team 1 has a 50% chance of winning, then value bet will be odds over 2.00.
S-League tomorrow
SAF vs Tampines.
SAF seems the better bet. Below is an estimate of the probability.Just take note that the line for SAF is above Tampines.
Implementing another model, power rating reveal a rating 0.75 in favour of SAF win too. Statistics wise, with a rating of 0.5 & above, the model has a success probability of 72%, i.e. 78 out of 108. for S league 2011
I think Bet365 currently offer SAF (Draw No Bet, essentially AH(0)) @ 1.72 and 1X @ 1.40 which are fair odds.Worth a small punt.
Likewise, for the Balestier - Gombak match, Gombak should edge it.
Power rating is 0.93 in favour of Gombak. Likely a win or draw for Gombak here. Worth a punt if odds are good.
Just sharing here. Good night and good luck if you are going to punt.
SAF vs Tampines.
SAF seems the better bet. Below is an estimate of the probability.Just take note that the line for SAF is above Tampines.
Implementing another model, power rating reveal a rating 0.75 in favour of SAF win too. Statistics wise, with a rating of 0.5 & above, the model has a success probability of 72%, i.e. 78 out of 108. for S league 2011
I think Bet365 currently offer SAF (Draw No Bet, essentially AH(0)) @ 1.72 and 1X @ 1.40 which are fair odds.Worth a small punt.
Likewise, for the Balestier - Gombak match, Gombak should edge it.
Power rating is 0.93 in favour of Gombak. Likely a win or draw for Gombak here. Worth a punt if odds are good.
Just sharing here. Good night and good luck if you are going to punt.
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