Recession in 2013?

[TracyTan866]

I don't make wild guesses.

dont be so serious..this is just a coffeshop chat. we can express our opinions freely and give our assessments..if our assessment turns out wrong, just laugh over it but for thin skin people like you maybe get a bit of bruised ego and spoilt day. you wont be bankrupted nor punished..so relax

 

[Cestbon]

How to just economy good/bad. When bank start to foreclose property that really bad?
That is what happen now in USA and Europe.

As long have job the person should able to feed himself/have home. Just need to spend within him mean/affordable to him.

 

[TracyTan866]

How to just economy good/bad. When bank start to foreclose property that really bad?
That is what happen now in USA and Europe.

As long have job the person should able to feed himself/have home. Just need to spend within him mean/affordable to him.

good question

there are some economic considerations and parameters to say what's a recession

 

[jubilee1919]

dont be so serious..this is just a coffeshop chat. we can express our opinions freely and give our assessments..if our assessment turns out wrong, just laugh over it but for thin skin people like you maybe get a bit of bruised ego. you wont be bankrupted nor punished..so relax

Lol. I can see through you. Most likely the companies you mentioned are a few of those you hold shares in and you want inputs so you can decide whether to hold or sell them.

Yeah, this is the internet and anyone can post crap if they want to.

 

[TracyTan866]

Lol. I can see through you. Most likely the companies you mentioned are a few of those you hold shares in and you want inputs so you can decide whether to hold or sell them.

Yeah, this is the internet and anyone can post crap if they want to.

hahahaha...wild guess indeed...good try though! thanks

 

[Cestbon]

good question

there are some economic considerations and parameters to say what's a recession

Recession technically is data. Who can confirm the data? Gov can manipulate data.
Best to judge overall recession is property burst/jobless.
Recession as you can see share market index still very high compare to end of 2008/beginning of 2009.
US/Spain and many Europe country property is burst and jobless rise. Now China start to show sign of property burst.
Property burst is the worst case. Because house that abandon is be more worthless because no maintenance/pest/drug addict/vandalism/...................................for period of few year.

 

[TracyTan866]

Recession technically is data. Who can confirm the data? Gov can manipulate data.
Best to judge overall recession is property burst/jobless.
Recession as you can see share market index still very high compare to end of 2008/beginning of 2009.
US/Spain and many Europe country property is burst and jobless rise. Now China start to show sign of property burst.
Property burst is the worst case. Because house that abandon is be more worthless because no maintenance/pest/drug addict/vandalism/...................................for period of few year.

yes...you are wise and discerning..unlike rookies like Jubilee who is stuck with officialdom, data and believing PAP announcements as the only truth.

the pap will offically announce a recession when it is ready and thinks that it is the right time to proclaim it.

But people on the ground know better and that's what really matters. in fact ,many Singaporeans are already feeling the effects of an economic slowdown.

Hawker centres are experiencing bad business. food courts are seeing dwindling crowds..restaurants are finding business difficult and are giving a lot of promotions. but the pap says we are experiencing growth for the quarter.

i prefer to gauge from unofficial ground sources

 

[TracyTan866]

Recession technically is data. Who can confirm the data? Gov can manipulate data.
Best to judge overall recession is property burst/jobless.
Recession as you can see share market index still very high compare to end of 2008/beginning of 2009.
US/Spain and many Europe country property is burst and jobless rise. Now China start to show sign of property burst.
Property burst is the worst case. Because house that abandon is be more worthless because no maintenance/pest/drug addict/vandalism/...................................for period of few year.

Is the property market overdue for a correction?

 

[aurvandil]

Very confident there won't be a recession. It has nothing to do with US, Europe or China. It has everything to do with the FT policy. As long as the PAP continue to allow in 100k or so immigrants, we can cruise along at 1% to 3% growth regardless of what is happening in the rest of the world. These new immigrants will help prop up the property market. At the same time they will hold down wages and thus allow businesses in Singapore to proposer.

Hence while there will be no recession, we can expect a continued fall in the standard of living for most Singaporeans.

the pap will offically announce a recession when it is ready and thinks that it is the right time to proclaim it.

 

[TracyTan866]

Very confident there won't be a recession. It has nothing to do with US, Europe or China. It has everything to do with the FT policy. As long as the PAP continue to allow in 100k or so immigrants, we can cruise along at 1% to 3% growth regardless of what is happening in the rest of the world. These new immigrants will help prop up the property market. At the same time they will hold down wages and thus allow businesses in Singapore to proposer.

Hence while there will be no recession, we can expect a continued fall in the standard of living for most Singaporeans.

Good analysis...but not sure whether the pap will want to continue with this unhealthy cheap foreign labour addiction at great social costs

 

[TracyTan866]

Very confident there won't be a recession. It has nothing to do with US, Europe or China. It has everything to do with the FT policy. As long as the PAP continue to allow in 100k or so immigrants, we can cruise along at 1% to 3% growth regardless of what is happening in the rest of the world. These new immigrants will help prop up the property market. At the same time they will hold down wages and thus allow businesses in Singapore to proposer.

Hence while there will be no recession, we can expect a continued fall in the standard of living for most Singaporeans.

I heard there is some soul searching within the pap abt the FT policy.

what if the pap finally wakes up and only let in foreigners who are assets to SG rather than just cheap 3rd world thrash?

would that affect your assessment?

 

[aurvandil]

I would only change my assessment if there are changes in the empirical data. PM LHL has indicated very clearly that there will be letting in 80k. The released data show the actual number closer to 100k. Despite all the talking and soul searching, there has been no observable empircal change in the FT policy.

I heard there is some soul searching within the pap abt the FT policy.

what if the pap finally wakes up and only let in foreigners who are assets to SG rather than just cheap 3rd world thrash?

would that affect your assessment?

 

[TracyTan866]

I would only change my assessment if there are changes in the empirical data. PM LHL has indicated very clearly that there will be letting in 80k. The released data show the actual number closer to 100k. Despite all the talking and soul searching, there has been no observable empircal change in the FT policy.

sounds bleak for average singaporeans.

i am glad for the singaporeans who are choosing to migrate...good for them but sad for their parents and loved ones

 

[TracyTan866]

I would only change my assessment if there are changes in the empirical data. PM LHL has indicated very clearly that there will be letting in 80k. The released data show the actual number closer to 100k. Despite all the talking and soul searching, there has been no observable empircal change in the FT policy.

so, if the pap is really honourable and really become selective in letting in foreigners who have talents, would you change your assessment?

 

[blackmondy]

Is the property market overdue for a correction?

Any correction will be 'corrected' to ensure the snowballing doesn't stop.

 

[TracyTan866]

Any correction will be 'corrected' to ensure the snowballing doesn't stop.

hahahaha...true..but cannot continue to correct a correction indefinitely..someday, someone is going to get burnt

 

[blackmondy]

hahahaha...true..but cannot continue to
correct a correction indefinitely..someday, someone is going to get burnt

The policies are formulated in such a way that people are happily queuing up to get burnt.

 

[Cestbon]

Is the property market overdue for a correction?

SG not that fast. For property correction in SG will be maybe see the actual value will likely be in 2015/2016.
It will take time why?
Because need a certain period of time eg. when unable to make payment for 6 month bank start to foreclose the property.
On average SG property buyer will have 6 month of reserve(saving) and another 6 month no repayment for bank that will be 12 month/1 year.
So when jobless/retrenchment start it will take one year to see the effect.
Now average interest average about 2% if the interest rate rise to 4% many will be unable to service loan.
Very soon interest rate will rise because no way it can stay low for long period of time.
Low interest rate create bubble.

 

[Seee3]

If demand is so badly hit and there is little orders. If others are so badly affected and there is little business/leisure travels. When we have completed most of the infra structure and there is little left to build and dig. When buildings are completed but contracts of purchases are abandoned.

The continuing flow of FTs is possible only when conditions are favorable i.e. jobs or safe haven for wealth. The speed of FTs exit should be as fast as their entry. In a downturn, only the poor will be stuck here which may not be what we want.

Very confident there won't be a recession. It has nothing to do with US, Europe or China. It has everything to do with the FT policy. As long as the PAP continue to allow in 100k or so immigrants, we can cruise along at 1% to 3% growth regardless of what is happening in the rest of the world. These new immigrants will help prop up the property market. At the same time they will hold down wages and thus allow businesses in Singapore to proposer.

Hence while there will be no recession, we can expect a continued fall in the standard of living for most Singaporeans.

 

[aurvandil]

Singapore will only be in danger of a recession if they cut back to less than 60k per year.

so, if the pap is really honourable and really become selective in letting in foreigners who have talents, would you change your assessment?