No wonder Trump is now dancing to the Village People's YMCA.Donald Trump could face a revolt from senior voters on November 3. It will come down to a place called The Villages
By Emily Clark in the Villages, Florida
Posted 10 hours ago, updated5 hours ago
The residents of The Villages in Florida could have an impact on who becomes the next US president.(ABC News: Emily Clark)
Donald Trump's future as the President of the United States could come down to what happens in one community of senior citizens in central Florida.
Among nearly 700 holes of golf, 60,000 golf carts and 12 country clubs, more than 130,000 people live what appears to be a very pleasant existence.
There are three town squares, cinemas and Sunday sessions at RJ Gator's.
Pastel-coloured homes and moss-covered oak trees line neat cul-de-sacs, while golf carts with "for sale" signs are parked on the lawn.
About 130,000 people call The Villages retirement community in Florida home.(ABC News: Emily Clark)
This is The Villages — a sprawling haven for retirees and a big part of why so many move to Florida. And for the past four years, this has been a Trump stronghold.
But as the 2020 campaigns turn towards the finish line, The Villages is quickly becoming the subject of intense political analysis.
The local Republican and Democrat leaders are being contacted daily by US and international media and are very aware of just how many eyes are on them.
Both Mr Trump and Joe Biden have both been campaigning in Florida recently, trying to shore up the seniors vote, but it may not be an easy task for the President.
While many residents at The Village are supporters of the President, others are giving Joe Biden a second look.(ABC News: Niall Lenihan)
As COVID-19 continues to spread across the US and the economy remains suspended by uncertainty, several national polls indicate a collapse in support for Mr Trump among senior voters.
This group was a massive help to Mr Trump in 2016, so recent polls that say he's now losing older voters by more than 20 percentage points are a heavy blow to his re-election hopes.
Mr Trump didn't help matters last week when he tweeted a photo of his political opponent, which appeared to mock older Americans.
It was considered an astonishing move given his sliding support among that very group.
It's a pretty stark national picture, but on the ground in Florida, particularly in The Villages, any shift away from Mr Trump can be harder to see.
Grace Loew, 75, lives in The Villages and believes the President will win easily because "Florida is Trump".
"When we lived in Chicago, it was a different story, but here … support is very strong," she said.
Both Grace and her partner Jerry never planned on moving to The Villages. They had their bags packed and were on their way to Colombia, but like so many, they ended up staying.
That's one of the things that makes The Villages so interesting — no-one is really from here, everyone has moved to the community and brought their ideals with them.
Ms Loew said she wished she could "staple his mouth shut", but ultimately Mr Trump still had her vote.
Donald Trump needs to win The Villages 'two-to-one'
The scale of The Villages cannot be understated. The retirement community sits across more than 50 square kilometres and crosses three counties. It's not just an address, but a region on the map.
Chris Stanley is the head of The Villages' Democratic club and is pragmatic about how the vote here is going to go.
Chris Stanley expects The Villages to vote Republican, but not with the same enthusiasm as in 2016.(ABC News: Emily Clark)
"So, The Villages is going to vote Republican, it's a numbers game ultimately," she said.
"And The Villages is going to go for Trump, but it's not going to go by the same percentage that it did in 2016 and that's why we're getting so much attention right now."
Ms Stanley said every week people will walk into her modest campaign office and proclaim: "I am a Republican."
"They step in and say 'I'm a Republican and I'm staying a Republican. What can I do to help you get rid of Trump?'"
While the seniors vote might be moving away from Mr Trump in a big way on a national stage, here in The Villages, Ms Stanley says the swing is smaller, but the fact it's happening at all is significant.
A self-confessed "election data nerd", Ms Stanley said she estimated the drop in support for Mr Trump in The Villages to be about 6 per cent.
"That's a lot of votes that will go to the state-wide average for Joe Biden, and in a 1 per cent state like Florida, that could be instrumental."
Dave Wasserman from The Cook Political Report tweeted last week: "if Trump doesn't win Sumter County (The Villages) at least two-to-one, he's not winning Florida or a second term."
There is no doubt there are more voters registered as Republicans than Democrats in the tri-county area that covers The Villages, but whether or not Mr Trump will win residents over by a two-to-one margin remains to be seen.
Loading...
Trump supporter and Villages resident Carmine Bravo said: "I don't know any seniors who are changing their mind."
"I think people flocked to him because they wanted someone to talk to them in a language they could understand," he said.
And in terms of Mr Trump's handling of COVID-19, Mr Bravo said the President has done "about as good as anyone could possibly do".
"When they first learned about it and they knew the source of it, he didn't hesitate. He closed down the travel and closed down the borders," he said.
"He set up hospitals, he set up equipment. He got researchers and scientists going."
Trouble in paradise
In a moment when opposition to Mr Trump inside The Villages was on display, a convoy of an estimated 500 golf carts delivered ballots for Mr Biden to the nearby election office.
The Democrat supporters who live in The Villages are hoping to make a huge dent in Donald Trump's vote.(ABC News: Emily Clark)
Just days later, Vice-President Mike Pence was in town and attracted a crowd of a reported 1,000 people for a campaign speech in The Villages.
In a place where golf carts are literal vehicles for political statements, tensions are running high.
The Villages resident Lyn Mckenzie, 65, said the politics could make The Villages a difficult place to live.
"I love living here. I love the beauty, I love everything about it really, except for that," she said.
"Once you find people that are like you, then it makes it even better and you just try to ignore those other people because they're everywhere."
Ms Mckenzie is one of several residents who park on the side of the road, campaigning for Mr Biden. She said she's used to going against the grain and has always lived in Republican strongholds.
Lyn Mckenzie is campaigning hard for Joe Biden in The Villages.(ABC News: Emily Clark)
As horns from passing cars sound in support, she raises her hand to wave and her voice to speak over them and says: "It's turning."
Ms Stanley said the result here would be "very close".
"It's going to be a squeaker," she said.
The result in Florida may not be known on the night, but the community will be closely watched, because as Ms Stanley says: "As the Villages votes, so goes the country'.
There are more Democrat campaign signs on display on the golf carts at The Villages than in previous elections.(ABC News: Emily Clark)
-
IP addresses are NOT logged in this forum so there's no point asking. Please note that this forum is full of homophobes, racists, lunatics, schizophrenics & absolute nut jobs with a smattering of geniuses, Chinese chauvinists, Moderate Muslims and last but not least a couple of "know-it-alls" constantly sprouting their dubious wisdom. If you believe that content generated by unsavory characters might cause you offense PLEASE LEAVE NOW! Sammyboy Admin and Staff are not responsible for your hurt feelings should you choose to read any of the content here. The OTHER forum is HERE so please stop asking.
President Trump will win again
- Thread starter Byebye Penis
- Start date
According to the honorable former NY Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Biden is held hostage because China hosted his son's drug and childsex rendezvous.
Trump might loose...
Republican senator tries to distance himself from Trump: 'He is who he is' | Republicans
Donald Trump at a rally in Carson City on Sunday. Photograph: Carlos Barría/Reuters
Mon 19 Oct 2020 22.42 AEDT
A member of Republican leadership in the US Senate has likened his relationship with Donald Trump to a marriage, and said that he was “maybe like a lot of women who get married and think they’re going to change their spouse, and that doesn’t usually work out very well”.
The Texas senator John Cornyn’s comments, to the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, are the latest instance of a Republican under electoral pressure seeking to distance himself from an unpopular president, however gingerly, as polling day looms. Democrats are favoured to take the Senate, potentially leading to unified government in Washington.
“I think what we found is that we’re not going to change President Trump,” Cornyn said. “He is who he is. You either love him or hate him, and there’s not much in between.
“What I tried to do is not get into public confrontations and fights with him because, as I’ve observed, those usually don’t end too well.”
Trump spent some of the weekend in a public fight with Senator Ben Sasse of Nebraska. Sasse criticised Trump in a call with constituents, lamenting among other things his treatment of women and the way he “kisses dictators’ butts” and “flirts with white supremacists”.
Trump fired back with insults, forcing Republican National Committee chair, Ronna McDaniel, on to the defensive on the Sunday talkshows.
Sasse is more or less assured of re-election in two weeks’ time but his prediction of a “bloodbath” for Senate Republicans with an unpopular president at the top of ticket may have stung Trump – and McDaniel – the most.
Cornyn, a former Senate majority whip, certainly knows what Sasse meant. He leads his Democratic challenger in the usually safe Republican state – but not by much, some polls showing MJ Hegar within the margin of error.
Cornyn told the Fort Worth paper that “when I have had differences of opinion” with Trump, “which I have, do that privately. I have found that has allowed me to be much more effective, I believe, than to satisfy those who say I ought to call him out or get into a public fight with him.”
Cornyn said he was happy to praise Trump publicly when they agreed, such as on judicial nominations and tax cuts. Subjects of disagreement included Covid-19 response; efforts to secure another relief bill; and the use of defense funds for border security.
On trade policy, Cornyn added: “I applaud him for standing up to China but, frankly, this idea that China is paying the price and we’re not paying the price here at home is just not true.”
The comment was mild enough not to immediately rile Trump, who was campaigning in battleground states. The Star-Telegram described Cornyn’s caution, saying he “noted that his friend, former [senator] Bob Corker [of Tennessee], who initially was on cordial terms with Trump’s White House, opted not to run for re-election in 2018 after clashing with Trump on issues such as a border wall.”
Corker was once considered as a running mate or secretary of state. Exasperated to the point of saying the White House was being run like an “adult daycare centre”, he retired in 2018.
Blasting back at Sasse, Trump showed he never forgets a slight. The Nebraska senator, the president tweeted, “seems to be heading down the same inglorious path as former senator Liddle’ Bob Corker”, who became “totally unelectable” because of his criticism “and decided to drop out of politics and gracefully ‘RETIRE’”.
Cornyn, 68, is hoping to defeat his 44-year-old opponent and secure a fourth six-year-term.
Topics
Republican senator tries to distance himself from Trump: 'He is who he is' | Republicans
Mon 19 Oct 2020 22.42 AEDT
A member of Republican leadership in the US Senate has likened his relationship with Donald Trump to a marriage, and said that he was “maybe like a lot of women who get married and think they’re going to change their spouse, and that doesn’t usually work out very well”.
The Texas senator John Cornyn’s comments, to the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, are the latest instance of a Republican under electoral pressure seeking to distance himself from an unpopular president, however gingerly, as polling day looms. Democrats are favoured to take the Senate, potentially leading to unified government in Washington.
“I think what we found is that we’re not going to change President Trump,” Cornyn said. “He is who he is. You either love him or hate him, and there’s not much in between.
“What I tried to do is not get into public confrontations and fights with him because, as I’ve observed, those usually don’t end too well.”
Trump spent some of the weekend in a public fight with Senator Ben Sasse of Nebraska. Sasse criticised Trump in a call with constituents, lamenting among other things his treatment of women and the way he “kisses dictators’ butts” and “flirts with white supremacists”.
Trump fired back with insults, forcing Republican National Committee chair, Ronna McDaniel, on to the defensive on the Sunday talkshows.
Sasse is more or less assured of re-election in two weeks’ time but his prediction of a “bloodbath” for Senate Republicans with an unpopular president at the top of ticket may have stung Trump – and McDaniel – the most.
Cornyn, a former Senate majority whip, certainly knows what Sasse meant. He leads his Democratic challenger in the usually safe Republican state – but not by much, some polls showing MJ Hegar within the margin of error.
Cornyn told the Fort Worth paper that “when I have had differences of opinion” with Trump, “which I have, do that privately. I have found that has allowed me to be much more effective, I believe, than to satisfy those who say I ought to call him out or get into a public fight with him.”
Cornyn said he was happy to praise Trump publicly when they agreed, such as on judicial nominations and tax cuts. Subjects of disagreement included Covid-19 response; efforts to secure another relief bill; and the use of defense funds for border security.
On trade policy, Cornyn added: “I applaud him for standing up to China but, frankly, this idea that China is paying the price and we’re not paying the price here at home is just not true.”
The comment was mild enough not to immediately rile Trump, who was campaigning in battleground states. The Star-Telegram described Cornyn’s caution, saying he “noted that his friend, former [senator] Bob Corker [of Tennessee], who initially was on cordial terms with Trump’s White House, opted not to run for re-election in 2018 after clashing with Trump on issues such as a border wall.”
Corker was once considered as a running mate or secretary of state. Exasperated to the point of saying the White House was being run like an “adult daycare centre”, he retired in 2018.
Blasting back at Sasse, Trump showed he never forgets a slight. The Nebraska senator, the president tweeted, “seems to be heading down the same inglorious path as former senator Liddle’ Bob Corker”, who became “totally unelectable” because of his criticism “and decided to drop out of politics and gracefully ‘RETIRE’”.
Cornyn, 68, is hoping to defeat his 44-year-old opponent and secure a fourth six-year-term.
Topics
So with two weeks left there is still no "October Surprise" factor. Recent polls show Joe Biden pulling away from Trump J Trump, but polls having error, we still don't know. I notice on FB and Twitter, most people whether they are for Donald J Trump or Joe Biden all say don't trust the polls, remember 2016. 70% of US Persons do not trust the polls. What we have to remember is this is not 2016, and the same outcome might still happen with the come from behind win for Donald J Trump, but that scenario is rapidly dwindling.
So Donald J Trump needs a "October Surprise" or the largest polling error here.
So Donald J Trump needs a "October Surprise" or the largest polling error here.
Trump might loose...
Republican senator tries to distance himself from Trump: 'He is who he is' | Republicans
Donald Trump at a rally in Carson City on Sunday. Photograph: Carlos Barría/Reuters
Mon 19 Oct 2020 22.42 AEDT
A member of Republican leadership in the US Senate has likened his relationship with Donald Trump to a marriage, and said that he was “maybe like a lot of women who get married and think they’re going to change their spouse, and that doesn’t usually work out very well”.
The Texas senator John Cornyn’s comments, to the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, are the latest instance of a Republican under electoral pressure seeking to distance himself from an unpopular president, however gingerly, as polling day looms. Democrats are favoured to take the Senate, potentially leading to unified government in Washington.
“I think what we found is that we’re not going to change President Trump,” Cornyn said. “He is who he is. You either love him or hate him, and there’s not much in between.
“What I tried to do is not get into public confrontations and fights with him because, as I’ve observed, those usually don’t end too well.”
Trump spent some of the weekend in a public fight with Senator Ben Sasse of Nebraska. Sasse criticised Trump in a call with constituents, lamenting among other things his treatment of women and the way he “kisses dictators’ butts” and “flirts with white supremacists”.
Trump fired back with insults, forcing Republican National Committee chair, Ronna McDaniel, on to the defensive on the Sunday talkshows.
Sasse is more or less assured of re-election in two weeks’ time but his prediction of a “bloodbath” for Senate Republicans with an unpopular president at the top of ticket may have stung Trump – and McDaniel – the most.
Cornyn, a former Senate majority whip, certainly knows what Sasse meant. He leads his Democratic challenger in the usually safe Republican state – but not by much, some polls showing MJ Hegar within the margin of error.
Cornyn told the Fort Worth paper that “when I have had differences of opinion” with Trump, “which I have, do that privately. I have found that has allowed me to be much more effective, I believe, than to satisfy those who say I ought to call him out or get into a public fight with him.”
Cornyn said he was happy to praise Trump publicly when they agreed, such as on judicial nominations and tax cuts. Subjects of disagreement included Covid-19 response; efforts to secure another relief bill; and the use of defense funds for border security.
On trade policy, Cornyn added: “I applaud him for standing up to China but, frankly, this idea that China is paying the price and we’re not paying the price here at home is just not true.”
The comment was mild enough not to immediately rile Trump, who was campaigning in battleground states. The Star-Telegram described Cornyn’s caution, saying he “noted that his friend, former [senator] Bob Corker [of Tennessee], who initially was on cordial terms with Trump’s White House, opted not to run for re-election in 2018 after clashing with Trump on issues such as a border wall.”
Corker was once considered as a running mate or secretary of state. Exasperated to the point of saying the White House was being run like an “adult daycare centre”, he retired in 2018.
Blasting back at Sasse, Trump showed he never forgets a slight. The Nebraska senator, the president tweeted, “seems to be heading down the same inglorious path as former senator Liddle’ Bob Corker”, who became “totally unelectable” because of his criticism “and decided to drop out of politics and gracefully ‘RETIRE’”.
Cornyn, 68, is hoping to defeat his 44-year-old opponent and secure a fourth six-year-term.
Topics
2 GOP Governors have also decided to denounce Donald J Trump. The GOP senators are all distancing from Donald J Trump as many are being affected in their own locals senate race. One example of this is 1 of the 2 senatorial seat in the US State of Georgia. The challenger had no chance, now is 50% odds.
At the current trajectory, the race is trending poorly for the entire GOP candidates for President, United States Senate, and the US House of Representatives.
At this rate, all 3 will become under the control of the Joe Biden Democrats.
Unless there is a "October Surprise"
Considering how corrupt Biden is, if all 3 branches fall to the democrazies. Ah tiong land will be the worlds sole super power n the globalist will rule forever. The working men will basically be screwed even more. Better to be soylent Green now as a free man with dignity thsn to live as a working slave
Last saloon seems to be Thursday final live debate.
It is going to be one hell of a coke popcorn show.
FBI in possession of Hunter Biden's purported laptop
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fbi-purported-hunter-biden-laptop-sources
The FBI is in possession of the laptop purportedly belonging to Hunter Biden which contained emails revealing his foreign business dealings, including contacts in Ukraine and China, two senior administration officials told Fox News Tuesday.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fbi-purported-hunter-biden-laptop-sources
The FBI is in possession of the laptop purportedly belonging to Hunter Biden which contained emails revealing his foreign business dealings, including contacts in Ukraine and China, two senior administration officials told Fox News Tuesday.
The democrazies might win the Senate n the white house giving them control of the executive and the legislature..yankeeland will be fucked
no rally event for biden from 20-22th, to avoid being questioned about the childsex scandal
meanwhile for Trump... ...
HEE HEE and Prison TIme too!
Republicans will restore the glory of the US after we remove this piece of shit.
https://www.usnews.com/news/electio...alysts-say-trump-will-lose-for-real-this-time
Analysts Say Trump Will Lose – For Real This Time
Allan Lichtman called the election correctly in 2016. Now his prediction agrees with all of the other models – Trump will lose.
By Horus Alas, Contributor Oct. 19, 2020, at 6:42 p.m.
More
IN COLLABORATION WITH
LEARN MORE
Analysts Say Trump Will Lose This Time
ON NOV. 8, 2016, President Donald Trump won an upset victory that blindsided reporters, pundits and much of the American electorate.
Overwhelmingly, election forecasts got it wrong. From mid-October to just before Election Day, FiveThirtyEight, the Cook Political Report, and Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball all portended a Clinton victory. But one model – American University professor Allan Lichtman's 13 Keys – correctly anticipated a Trump win.
And this time, Lichtman said seven keys are turned against Trump, which means he will lose the White House.
"As of late 2019, Trump was down only four keys. It was short of predicting his defeat," Lichtman says. "Everything changed in 2020, with the pandemic and the cries for social and racial justice."
Lichtman developed his 13 keys in collaboration with the late Vladimir Keilis-Borok, a Russian expert on earthquakes. They analyzed American presidential elections from 1860 to 1980 in seismological terms – stability indicated the governing party would keep the White House, while an earthquake indicated they would lose it. If six of the 13 keys turned against the governing party, they were in for a loss.
The 13 keys are based on party mandate – whether the governing party holds a majority in the House of Representatives after the midterm elections; a heated primary contest within the governing party; incumbency; a strong third-party presence; health of the short-term and long-term economy; sweeping policy change; sustained social unrest; administration scandal; foreign or military failures and successes; the incumbent's charisma; and the challenger's charisma.
"In 2016, Trump was the challenger," Lichtman says. "I gauged that exactly six keys were turned against the incumbent party, the Democrats. I said that this was going to be a change election – any generic Republican was going to beat any generic Democrat."
And while in 2019 Lichtman's keys predicted a Trump win, the coronavirus pandemic's destruction of the long and short-term economy as well as this summer's protests against racial injustice have put him over the threshold for an impending loss, he says.
Even though Lichtman's model was the only one to correctly predict the 2016 race, analysts from other sources maintain their outlook wasn't all that wrong in context. And likewise, they say Trump is set to lose the White House this November.
On Oct. 20, 2016, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball proclaimed, "With 19 days to go, Clinton's lead is bigger than ever." In their analysis, Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley from the University of Virginia's Center for Politics anticipated that just a few weeks later, Clinton would thrash Trump in the Electoral College vote, 352 to 173.
Instead, as results came in on election night, Trump carried the Electoral College, with 306 votes to Clinton's 232.
Looking back, Kondik said that undecided and third-party voters made 2016 especially volatile, and gave Trump a boost in the end. "A lot of people had negative views of both Trump and Clinton," and nearly 6% of voters ended up supporting a third-party, he says. "The people who held unfavorable views of both candidates ended up breaking for Trump."
The Crystal Ball predictions are based on polling aggregates between the two candidates, as well as factors like electoral history, candidate quality and reporting.
On Oct. 13, 2016, Real Clear Politics' polling average for the race had Clinton up 6.7 points nationally, with 48.1% to Trump's 41.4%. But by Election Day, Trump's deficit had narrowed to just 3.2 points – within most polls' margin of error.
Kondik contrasts that campaign with a 2020 race where there are fewer third-party and undecided voters, and "Biden leads have been more and more stable throughout the cycle than in 2016," he says. Kondik also noted that at certain points during the 2016 race, Trump closed his polling deficit with Clinton, but has never gotten particularly close to Biden in national polls this time around.
"[Trump's] running out of time. Ballots are already being cast," Kondik says. "His approval rating has not been horrible, but not especially good… The 2018 midterms were bad for him. In 2020, it's been a difficult year for the country. An unpopular incumbent losing in this kind of year makes sense to me."
On Oct. 15, 2016, FiveThirtyEight was also calling for a Clinton blowout, giving her an 85.5% chance of winning, to Trump's 14.5%. Their current projections for the 2020 race are even more lopsided, anticipating a Biden win in 87 out of 100 possible scenarios.
Despite favoring the wrong outcome in 2016, FiveThirtyEight elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich stands by the essential method of their forecast.
"Our job is not to predict or call a race, but to describe how likely it is that someone will win," he says. "I would ask people not to think of our forecast in terms of a binary, but we are putting a probability or betting odds on an event. There are two possible outcomes – Trump could still win reelection [in 2020], but the preponderance of evidence is pointing in the opposite direction."
Rakich said FiveThirtyEight's methodology is based in large part on inputting polls calculating averages, while factoring in whether economic indicators favor an incumbent as well as a state's typical partisan alignment.
Like Kondik, Rakich also says that this year's polling has consistently favored Biden by larger margins than 2016 favored Clinton.
"Many national polls have Biden ahead by double digits," he says. Rakich described Biden as having, "Big, healthy margins in places like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that decide the Electoral College… They're tied in Texas, Georgia, Ohio. Basically, an election in which a Democrat is competitive in Texas is not a close election."
He notes that turnout could be difficult to gauge because of the pandemic and says that FiveThirtyEight's projections have taken the virus into account. Even still, the pandemic has made the model more uncertain than it would be otherwise, Rakich says.
Despite that, he remains confident that Trump faces daunting odds in his bid for reelection.
"In 2016 by Election Day, Clinton was maybe 4 points ahead of Trump, which is within range for polling error," Rakich said. "But if the election took place today where Biden is leading by 10 points, there would have to be a really shocking series of events to happen in order for Trump to win."
This year, both sides are cautioning that the polls could be wrong. Biden's campaign is urging supporters not to get complacent and Trump predicts a red wave.
Analysts are holding firm on their predictions – and reminding voters that the national polls weren't completely wrong in 2016.
Republicans will restore the glory of the US after we remove this piece of shit.
https://www.usnews.com/news/electio...alysts-say-trump-will-lose-for-real-this-time
Analysts Say Trump Will Lose – For Real This Time
Allan Lichtman called the election correctly in 2016. Now his prediction agrees with all of the other models – Trump will lose.
By Horus Alas, Contributor Oct. 19, 2020, at 6:42 p.m.
More
IN COLLABORATION WITH
LEARN MORE
Analysts Say Trump Will Lose This Time
ON NOV. 8, 2016, President Donald Trump won an upset victory that blindsided reporters, pundits and much of the American electorate.
Overwhelmingly, election forecasts got it wrong. From mid-October to just before Election Day, FiveThirtyEight, the Cook Political Report, and Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball all portended a Clinton victory. But one model – American University professor Allan Lichtman's 13 Keys – correctly anticipated a Trump win.
And this time, Lichtman said seven keys are turned against Trump, which means he will lose the White House.
"As of late 2019, Trump was down only four keys. It was short of predicting his defeat," Lichtman says. "Everything changed in 2020, with the pandemic and the cries for social and racial justice."
Lichtman developed his 13 keys in collaboration with the late Vladimir Keilis-Borok, a Russian expert on earthquakes. They analyzed American presidential elections from 1860 to 1980 in seismological terms – stability indicated the governing party would keep the White House, while an earthquake indicated they would lose it. If six of the 13 keys turned against the governing party, they were in for a loss.
The 13 keys are based on party mandate – whether the governing party holds a majority in the House of Representatives after the midterm elections; a heated primary contest within the governing party; incumbency; a strong third-party presence; health of the short-term and long-term economy; sweeping policy change; sustained social unrest; administration scandal; foreign or military failures and successes; the incumbent's charisma; and the challenger's charisma.
"In 2016, Trump was the challenger," Lichtman says. "I gauged that exactly six keys were turned against the incumbent party, the Democrats. I said that this was going to be a change election – any generic Republican was going to beat any generic Democrat."
And while in 2019 Lichtman's keys predicted a Trump win, the coronavirus pandemic's destruction of the long and short-term economy as well as this summer's protests against racial injustice have put him over the threshold for an impending loss, he says.
Even though Lichtman's model was the only one to correctly predict the 2016 race, analysts from other sources maintain their outlook wasn't all that wrong in context. And likewise, they say Trump is set to lose the White House this November.
On Oct. 20, 2016, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball proclaimed, "With 19 days to go, Clinton's lead is bigger than ever." In their analysis, Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley from the University of Virginia's Center for Politics anticipated that just a few weeks later, Clinton would thrash Trump in the Electoral College vote, 352 to 173.
Instead, as results came in on election night, Trump carried the Electoral College, with 306 votes to Clinton's 232.
Looking back, Kondik said that undecided and third-party voters made 2016 especially volatile, and gave Trump a boost in the end. "A lot of people had negative views of both Trump and Clinton," and nearly 6% of voters ended up supporting a third-party, he says. "The people who held unfavorable views of both candidates ended up breaking for Trump."
The Crystal Ball predictions are based on polling aggregates between the two candidates, as well as factors like electoral history, candidate quality and reporting.
On Oct. 13, 2016, Real Clear Politics' polling average for the race had Clinton up 6.7 points nationally, with 48.1% to Trump's 41.4%. But by Election Day, Trump's deficit had narrowed to just 3.2 points – within most polls' margin of error.
Kondik contrasts that campaign with a 2020 race where there are fewer third-party and undecided voters, and "Biden leads have been more and more stable throughout the cycle than in 2016," he says. Kondik also noted that at certain points during the 2016 race, Trump closed his polling deficit with Clinton, but has never gotten particularly close to Biden in national polls this time around.
"[Trump's] running out of time. Ballots are already being cast," Kondik says. "His approval rating has not been horrible, but not especially good… The 2018 midterms were bad for him. In 2020, it's been a difficult year for the country. An unpopular incumbent losing in this kind of year makes sense to me."
On Oct. 15, 2016, FiveThirtyEight was also calling for a Clinton blowout, giving her an 85.5% chance of winning, to Trump's 14.5%. Their current projections for the 2020 race are even more lopsided, anticipating a Biden win in 87 out of 100 possible scenarios.
Despite favoring the wrong outcome in 2016, FiveThirtyEight elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich stands by the essential method of their forecast.
"Our job is not to predict or call a race, but to describe how likely it is that someone will win," he says. "I would ask people not to think of our forecast in terms of a binary, but we are putting a probability or betting odds on an event. There are two possible outcomes – Trump could still win reelection [in 2020], but the preponderance of evidence is pointing in the opposite direction."
Rakich said FiveThirtyEight's methodology is based in large part on inputting polls calculating averages, while factoring in whether economic indicators favor an incumbent as well as a state's typical partisan alignment.
Like Kondik, Rakich also says that this year's polling has consistently favored Biden by larger margins than 2016 favored Clinton.
"Many national polls have Biden ahead by double digits," he says. Rakich described Biden as having, "Big, healthy margins in places like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that decide the Electoral College… They're tied in Texas, Georgia, Ohio. Basically, an election in which a Democrat is competitive in Texas is not a close election."
He notes that turnout could be difficult to gauge because of the pandemic and says that FiveThirtyEight's projections have taken the virus into account. Even still, the pandemic has made the model more uncertain than it would be otherwise, Rakich says.
Despite that, he remains confident that Trump faces daunting odds in his bid for reelection.
"In 2016 by Election Day, Clinton was maybe 4 points ahead of Trump, which is within range for polling error," Rakich said. "But if the election took place today where Biden is leading by 10 points, there would have to be a really shocking series of events to happen in order for Trump to win."
This year, both sides are cautioning that the polls could be wrong. Biden's campaign is urging supporters not to get complacent and Trump predicts a red wave.
Analysts are holding firm on their predictions – and reminding voters that the national polls weren't completely wrong in 2016.
HEE HEE
Dont trust the polls but the economist now has Biden with a 92% chance.
https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
Right now, our model thinks Joe Biden is very likely to beat Donald Trump in the electoral college.
The probability of an electoral-college tie is <1%
Dont trust the polls but the economist now has Biden with a 92% chance.
https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
Right now, our model thinks Joe Biden is very likely to beat Donald Trump in the electoral college.
| Chance of winning the electoral college | Chance of winning the most votes | Predicted range of electoral college votes (270 to win) | |
|---|---|---|---|
Joe Biden Democrat | better than 9 in 10 or 92% | better than 19 in 20 or >99% | 233-415 |
Donald Trump Republican | less than 1 in 10 or 8% | less than 1 in 20 or 1% | 123-305 |
Similar threads
