PE Prediction/Wishlist - Lay it down here

[SDPhopelessParty]

TCB - 37%
TT - 34%
TKL - 22%
JS - 3%

Spoilt - 4%

wayang party lose his deposit

 

[rusty]

Lan Cheow, Cheebye, Ka-chng or a mouthful president?

 

[zhihau]

Doesn't matter if it a well thought prediction or a wishlist, lay it down here.

my guess is...

TCB - 30%
TJS - 29%
TT - 24%
TKL - 14%

void/null - 3%

:p:p:p

 

[Windsor]

My wishlist:

TCB - 31%
TT - 26%
TJS - 23%
TKL - 15%


Spoilt Votes- 5%

 

[po2wq]

my prediction ...

ah tony ... 41% ...
ah bock ... 35% ...
ah lian ... 12% ...
ah say ... 11% ...
spoilt votes ... 1%


my wishlist ...
ah bock ... 38% ... (win by 1 vote! ... )
ah tony ... 38% ... (lost by 1 vote! ... )
ah say ... < 38% ... (as loong as can craim back deposit la ... )
ah lian ... < 38% ... (miss by 1 vote 2 craim back deposit! ... )
spoilt votes ... wateva la! ...

:p

 

[Cestbon]

My Prediction for President Election
Some point to consider
1. No money/hang out $$$$$>> about 5~10 % will jump ship from PAP
2. TJS the only people think he is opposition among 4 of them. So he at least will get all opposition vote 30~40% Since last election opposition get about 40%.

My Prediction
TT & TJS have the highest vote range 30~40%
TCB & TKL about 5~20% vote.

So the is no big winner more than 50% vote. Meaning Singaporean vote >>> no confident for Singapore PE this time.

 

[bakaroo]

If the presidential elect gets less than 50% votes, then the top 2 candidates should go for another show down.

 

[KuanTi01]

TT..............12%::p
TCB.............28%
TJS..............25%
TKL..............33%
Spoilt votes...2%:(

 

[pinkpanther7]

TT..............12%::p
TCB.............28%
TJS..............25%
TKL..............33%
Spoilt votes...2%:(

I have done my own survey with about 150 people and my prediction as follows:

TT...............25%
TCB.............28%
TJS..............30%
TKL..............15%
Spoilt votes...2%[/COLOR][/SIZE][/FONT]

 

[Varuna]

My wishlist:

TT...............27%
TCB.............28%
TJS..............25%
TKL..............15%
Spoilt votes...5%

 

[Unrepented]

Prediction

TT.......................... 43%
TCB.........................42%
TJS...........................7%
TKL...........................3%
Spoiled or absent........5%

 

[I_Hate_Pappies]

TJS.......33%
TCB.......29%
TT..........26%
TKL.........5%
Spolit.......7%

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

1. Tt = 40%
2. Tkl = 30%
3. Tcb = 20%
4. Tjs = 10%

I am interested to know how you come to this prediction.

Although I am in support of TKL, but I think TT is still in the lead. TCB is quite a big disappointment to his supporters and some of his core supporters have left him. TJS, as expected, has gone on the "opposition mode". Watch tonight's CNA debate and I believe many middle ground voters would be put off by TJS.

TKL will have to increase his effort on capturing the middle ground, the silent majority. Things might change in the coming days.

Goh Meng Seng

 

[Debonerman]

Goh Meng Seng..the "Bullseye" politician!

 

[jeesus]

GMS, you are one of the "many" people who led TKL to believe that "many" people support him. You are indeed one of his "many" good friends.

 

[cheekenpie]

I am interested to know how you come to this prediction.

Although I am in support of TKL, but I think TT is still in the lead. TCB is quite a big disappointment to his supporters and some of his core supporters have left him. TJS, as expected, has gone on the "opposition mode". Watch tonight's CNA debate and I believe many middle ground voters would be put off by TJS.

TKL will have to increase his effort on capturing the middle ground, the silent majority. Things might change in the coming days.

Goh Meng Seng

GMS,

Care to substantiate how to come to the conclusion that the core supporter group of TCB have left him?

And do you really think TKL can get back his depost?

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

GMS,

Care to substantiate how to come to the conclusion that the core supporter group of TCB have left him?

And do you really think TKL can get back his depost?

For those who are in the know, they will realize that some of the core supporters who have supported him initially have left him. The problem may not lie with TCB but rather, some of his own supporters who really act like PAP/PA people. In fact, TCB's main core group consists of mainly PAP and PA people now. For some strange reasons, these people are actually chasing away other core supporters who are not within their own network.

TKL is not the one who should worry about his deposit. TCB and TJS are the ones who should be worried about their deposits. Put it simply, TJS are playing the opposition mode which he hopes to garner those 40% of voters who have voted opposition. However, he is gravely mistaken because those who have voted opposition in GE2011 consists of only 20% or less of hardcore anti-PAP while the other are made up of swing voters who are generally the silent majority.

TJS may not get ALL of those hardcore opposition votes, especially when he goes full blast into opposition mode of aggressiveness. Technically speaking, he has embarked on a suicidal mission with a mistaken understanding of voters profile. Those people who surround him giving him the wrong advice are basically hardcore anti-PAP people. This is the most suicidal composition in view of multi-corner fight. If it is one on one, maybe not so bad. But in multi-corner fight, we know that voters will go for those with more centrist and milder version of opposition positioning.

TCB's campaigning messages are not inspiring at all and keep repeating grandfather story of his past glories. Not many people can resonate with that kind of stories. The worse part is for him to make a few critical mistakes. Accusing others as "vote buying" when they offer to donate part or huge part of their own Presidential salary really looks bad on him. He has been contesting under PAP and there are even MORE DIRECT vote buying by PAP through HDB upgrading and such but he has kept quiet all this while but now, suddenly, he said he has principle not to buy vote? And such reasoning of vote buying is so weak! This is the main reason why he should worry of his deposit.

Goh Meng Seng

 

[jeesus]

Wow GMS is still in denial mode. You understand voters profile? How come NSP didn't win any seats under your LEEdership?

 

[annexa]

How come SDP did not hit 40% in any of the contests and also never get any seats too?

Even though I dun really like GMS at least NSP score above 40% in 3 contests.

Wow GMS is still in denial mode. You understand voters profile? How come NSP didn't win any seats under your LEEdership?

 

[thefarside]

My own thinking (and based on my sources)

TT - 40-45%
TCB - 25-30%
TJS - 20-25%
TKL - <10%
Spoilt / Absent - 5-7%

Absent any major snafus, TT will become president on 27th. I will be very happy to be proven wrong but most people do not understand that for core PAP voters the recommended candidate just have to appear "reasonable" and "presidential" to be electable. And there is still a lot of strength left in the party brand, regardless of what fire-breathing online people says.

One should be wary of being trapped by groupthink - not everyone has access to the web and will discuss their preferences online. I see among my colleagues a preference for TJS, my friends TCB, my relatives TT and the odd ones here and there TKL. No clear runners at least among the groups of people I associate with but TT has to be the favourite to win the election.