Blame that on the DAP which does not have a embracing attitude towards sarawak united front.
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Serious Malaysia's 15th General Election (19 Nov 2022 ) : Live updates
- Thread starter CoffeeAhSoh
- Start date
Blame that on the DAP which does not have a embracing attitude towards sarawak united front.
My prediction would be Pejuang wins about 5 to 6 seats.
Anwar will win about 110 seats. Not enough to form a govt. He will end up kissing Mahathir's hand again and still have a paper promise that he will be the future PM.
Meanwhile Mahathir's only demand is that he becomes PM to sweep up the things he has not finished.
Emir Research projects Pakatan Harapan to gain 94 seats in GE15 while UMNO president to likely lose in Bagan Datuk
www.theonlinecitizen.com
(LEFT) EMIR research logo; (RIGHT) A Malaysian navy officer casted his vote as early voters on 15 Nov. (Photo: Election Commission Malaysia)
MALAYSIA — Voters in Malaysia will go to polling booths tomorrow (19 Nov) to decide the fate of the country in the next five years.
A total of 945 candidates are contesting 222 parliamentary seats of the Dewan Rakyat (House of Representatives) in Malaysia’s 15th General Election (GE15).
It is said to be the fiercest election ever as 213 seats are contested by multi-cornered fights among the three major coalitions: Barisan National (BN), Perikatan National (PN) and Pakatan Harapan(PH).
Emir Research, a Malaysian think-tank released its GE15 projection on 17 November for Peninsular Malaysia, predicting that Pakatan Harapan (PH) will win 94 seats, ahead of BN’s 46, and PN would only gain 24 seats.
The newly founded coalition Gerakan Tanah Air (GTA, or Homeland Movement) led by 96-year-old Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, will probably only gain one seat, which is the Langkawi constituency defended by Dr Mahathir himself.
Emir research noted that the projections are based on a turnout rate of 77%, which was derived based on the poll aggregation that includes EMIR Research’s own projections.
The forecast predicts there will be 41 close-call seats with ±1,000 majority votes.
Datuk Dr Rais Hussin Mohamed Ariff, the think-tank’s president and CEO, was BERSATU co-founder and joined PKR (People’s Justice Party) last month.
PH has fielded 206 candidates to contest in GE15. As one of PH’s component parties, People’s Justice Party is contesting 72 seats in total.
In its projection, Emir Research expects PKR leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and his wife, Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail to be able to win the Tambun seat and Bandar Tun Razak seat respectively.
BN component parties leaders projected all losing seats
Emir Research also projected the likely loss by Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, Umno president in Bagan Datuk; while Datuk Seri Wee Ka Siong being, MCA president being voted out in his Ayer Hitam seat and MIC president Tan Sri SA Vigneswaran being ousted in Sungai Siput.
Zahid Hamidi is well known for his speech to urge BN’s dominant win in GE15 or face more prosecution.
He had recently been acquitted of all 40 graft charges against him in Foreign Visa System (VLN) case; but still faces other 47 charges of criminal breach of trust, graft and money laundering in the Yayasan Akalbudi case.
As for Perikatan National coalition, it might lose its seat in Gombak defended by Datuk Seri Azmin Ali, caretaker Internal Trade and Industry (MITI) Senior Minister; while PAS as an ally of PN contest in 22 seats, would able to defend its stronghold in Kelantan and Terengganu.
Emir Research said its GE15 projection is based on historical trend analysis by looking up at least four general election results, reviewing its own quarterly sentiment surveys, and modelling the outcomes of the previous general election.
The centre has also conducted a meta-analytical study of the poll results reported by various Malaysia research houses over the period from mid-October to mid-November.
“EMIR Research team has paid attention to the distribution of poll-reported popular votes
across few important demographic variables such as gender, ethnicity, and domicile.”
“Then these results were combined with the actual proportions of those demographics among the voters in various states in Malaysia and averaged using meta-analytical software.”
“Malaysia’s short-term political risk index score stands at 64.8 out of 100, which is near its lowest on record, reflecting elevated political uncertainty, but we expect political stability to return once the new government is formed, reinforced by the “anti-party hopping” bill, ” the outfit said.
Fitch Solution projected that there is 10 per cent likelihood that BN will be forced to form the government with PN, or 15 per cent with other parties under hung parliament circumstances.
BN coalition had previously won Johor and Malacca State by-elections with landslide victories, reversing their loss in the 2018 state election. Fitch Solution noted that there are signs that the political momentum is in favour of BN.
“If these state polls provide an accurate depiction of the political sentiment at the national level, BN would likely win an outright majority at the November federal elections, and this would guarantee that they would be able to form the government. ”
However, Fitch Solution also warned that the youth vote could be a political game changer, given that the younger generation appears to prefer non-racial politics.
Just December last year, the voting age was lowered from 21 to 18 years old and automatic voter registration was put in place by the passing of the Undi18 (“Vote at 18”) bill in 2019.
These amendments to Malaysia Constitution have led to the addition of 6.23 million new voters, with a total of 21.17 million eligible voters in the GE15.
www.theonlinecitizen.com
MALAYSIA — Voters in Malaysia will go to polling booths tomorrow (19 Nov) to decide the fate of the country in the next five years.
A total of 945 candidates are contesting 222 parliamentary seats of the Dewan Rakyat (House of Representatives) in Malaysia’s 15th General Election (GE15).
It is said to be the fiercest election ever as 213 seats are contested by multi-cornered fights among the three major coalitions: Barisan National (BN), Perikatan National (PN) and Pakatan Harapan(PH).
Emir Research, a Malaysian think-tank released its GE15 projection on 17 November for Peninsular Malaysia, predicting that Pakatan Harapan (PH) will win 94 seats, ahead of BN’s 46, and PN would only gain 24 seats.
The newly founded coalition Gerakan Tanah Air (GTA, or Homeland Movement) led by 96-year-old Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, will probably only gain one seat, which is the Langkawi constituency defended by Dr Mahathir himself.
Emir research noted that the projections are based on a turnout rate of 77%, which was derived based on the poll aggregation that includes EMIR Research’s own projections.
The forecast predicts there will be 41 close-call seats with ±1,000 majority votes.
PH has fielded 206 candidates to contest in GE15. As one of PH’s component parties, People’s Justice Party is contesting 72 seats in total.
In its projection, Emir Research expects PKR leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and his wife, Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail to be able to win the Tambun seat and Bandar Tun Razak seat respectively.
BN component parties leaders projected all losing seats
Emir Research also projected the likely loss by Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, Umno president in Bagan Datuk; while Datuk Seri Wee Ka Siong being, MCA president being voted out in his Ayer Hitam seat and MIC president Tan Sri SA Vigneswaran being ousted in Sungai Siput.
Zahid Hamidi is well known for his speech to urge BN’s dominant win in GE15 or face more prosecution.
He had recently been acquitted of all 40 graft charges against him in Foreign Visa System (VLN) case; but still faces other 47 charges of criminal breach of trust, graft and money laundering in the Yayasan Akalbudi case.
As for Perikatan National coalition, it might lose its seat in Gombak defended by Datuk Seri Azmin Ali, caretaker Internal Trade and Industry (MITI) Senior Minister; while PAS as an ally of PN contest in 22 seats, would able to defend its stronghold in Kelantan and Terengganu.
Emir Research said its GE15 projection is based on historical trend analysis by looking up at least four general election results, reviewing its own quarterly sentiment surveys, and modelling the outcomes of the previous general election.
The centre has also conducted a meta-analytical study of the poll results reported by various Malaysia research houses over the period from mid-October to mid-November.
“EMIR Research team has paid attention to the distribution of poll-reported popular votes
across few important demographic variables such as gender, ethnicity, and domicile.”
“Then these results were combined with the actual proportions of those demographics among the voters in various states in Malaysia and averaged using meta-analytical software.”
Fitch Solutions: BN expected to win more seats
However, another GE15 forecast done by Fitch Solution on 31 Oct, predicted that the BN coalition to win the most votes, and will most likely form the next government, but with a high risk of a hung parliament.“Malaysia’s short-term political risk index score stands at 64.8 out of 100, which is near its lowest on record, reflecting elevated political uncertainty, but we expect political stability to return once the new government is formed, reinforced by the “anti-party hopping” bill, ” the outfit said.
Fitch Solution projected that there is 10 per cent likelihood that BN will be forced to form the government with PN, or 15 per cent with other parties under hung parliament circumstances.
BN coalition had previously won Johor and Malacca State by-elections with landslide victories, reversing their loss in the 2018 state election. Fitch Solution noted that there are signs that the political momentum is in favour of BN.
“If these state polls provide an accurate depiction of the political sentiment at the national level, BN would likely win an outright majority at the November federal elections, and this would guarantee that they would be able to form the government. ”
However, Fitch Solution also warned that the youth vote could be a political game changer, given that the younger generation appears to prefer non-racial politics.
Just December last year, the voting age was lowered from 21 to 18 years old and automatic voter registration was put in place by the passing of the Undi18 (“Vote at 18”) bill in 2019.
These amendments to Malaysia Constitution have led to the addition of 6.23 million new voters, with a total of 21.17 million eligible voters in the GE15.
I think that this time Anwar win is due 
& PH to win about 100 seats in the peninsular Malaysia needing another 12 seats in Sabah & Sarawak with DAP clinching most of it.
It is also the end for Dr M & I expect his new party to lose everything with his son getting boot out
& PH to win about 100 seats in the peninsular Malaysia needing another 12 seats in Sabah & Sarawak with DAP clinching most of it.It is also the end for Dr M & I expect his new party to lose everything with his son getting boot out
I predict BN will win outright n Najib gets pardoned....1 SGD to 5 ringgit
High voter turnout is a good sign for PHI think that this time Anwar win is due
It is also the end for Dr M & I expect his new party to lose everything with his son getting boot out
--- Polling Closed ---
Dr M will finally get to ride into the sunset. I will even bet that he will go in 2023 for good, joining LKY. He would have lost something to fight / aim for and it will be lethal for him.
Anwar will not be PM, his stubborn insistence to go to bed with DAP will cost him. Almost all of Chinese will vote DAP and urban Malays will vote between PN and PH. Rural malays will vote half PN and half BN. So, the outcome will be BN and PN form government again.
Zahid Hamidi will be PM. He won't pardon Najib just yet, he need to consolidate his powers. Maybe couple of years later. But will be before the current Agong changes shift.
Anwar will not be PM, his stubborn insistence to go to bed with DAP will cost him. Almost all of Chinese will vote DAP and urban Malays will vote between PN and PH. Rural malays will vote half PN and half BN. So, the outcome will be BN and PN form government again.
Zahid Hamidi will be PM. He won't pardon Najib just yet, he need to consolidate his powers. Maybe couple of years later. But will be before the current Agong changes shift.
Datuk Seri Anwar told reporters after voting in Permatang Pauh in Penang that he was “cautiously optimistic” of PH’s chances, after several polling houses projected that the opposition coalition will win the most seats.
Mr Anwar, who is PH’s prime minister candidate, turned up to meet voters at polling centres in Tambun where he is contesting. He is expected to be in capital Kuala Lumpur on Saturday night as results filter in.
Mr Anwar, who is PH’s prime minister candidate, turned up to meet voters at polling centres in Tambun where he is contesting. He is expected to be in capital Kuala Lumpur on Saturday night as results filter in.
- Pejuang’s Dr Mahathir Mohamad is trailing in Langkawi, according to MyUndi. The BN candidate is leading with over 1,600 votes. In GE14, PH won this seat
- PH’s Lim Guan Eng is leading in Bagan with over 12,000 votes. In GE14, he won this seat.
- PH’s Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail is leading in Bandar Tun Razak. In GE14, PH won this seat.
If they use the tiong-made voting machines like the ones in the 2020 US fraud erection, then the bad guys will win.
[9.35pm] Early counting of votes has placed Pakatan Harapan in the lead in 48 seats, ahead of Perikatan Nasional in 28.
Barisan Nasional, which pressed for the 15th general election to be held, is currently third with 17.
GPS is technically above BN, with 22 seats, but the coalition is only contesting in Sarawak
Barisan Nasional, which pressed for the 15th general election to be held, is currently third with 17.
GPS is technically above BN, with 22 seats, but the coalition is only contesting in Sarawak
Very weird. Both the economist and fitch predicts bN victory,
Bye bye Mahathir. He has outlived his usefulness.
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