How long are you mentally prepared to have this "economic shutdown"?

[nayr69sg]

How long are you mentally prepared for this economic shutdown?

I know different people have a different number of months or weeks that they think this will last for.

The models that countries are using to make decisions now all say this could last 12 to 24 months.

In other words if you want to continue to "flatten the curve" the curve will last 1-2 years.

I personally don't think that is practical.

Some will say oh the models are just projections using current data. When things improve the model projections will change as well. Really?

 

[nayr69sg]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmo...lberta-as-total-cases-rise-to-1-250-1.5522777

It sounds scary to most people when Alberta announces

"The province reported three more deaths from COVID-19 on Sunday as total cases rose to 1,250.

The victims were a man in his 60s from the Calgary zone, a woman in her 80s from the Central zone and a man from the North zone who was over 100 years old. As of Sunday, the total number of deaths in Alberta was 23.."

There is a distinct lack of data to put it in perspective. How many people die every single day anyway?

https://open.alberta.ca/opendata/alberta-annual-deaths-totals

I checked up some of the data.

In 2014 on average 48 people aged >65 and 18 people aged <65 were dying EVERYDAY. (average 66 total dying per day for an annual total of about 24,000 deaths in 2014)

What I want reported everyday now is how many TOTAL number of people die. Regardless of covid19. And then compare this to figures from last year.

This allows us to see how many more people are dying from Covid19 than usual.

Just reporting how many deaths from covid19 everyday is just SCARE MONGERING.

I get it that the Public Health Officers do want to scare people so that everyone stays at home. But at some stage we have to let people decide for themselves if all this is truly worth it.

It is fine to hit pause and stop , get more data, analyze and then decide what to do. We are about around the time where we need to disseminate that data so people can choose for themselves.

 

[Leongsam]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmo...lberta-as-total-cases-rise-to-1-250-1.5522777

It sounds scary to most people when Alberta announces

"The province reported three more deaths from COVID-19 on Sunday as total cases rose to 1,250.

The victims were a man in his 60s from the Calgary zone, a woman in her 80s from the Central zone and a man from the North zone who was over 100 years old. As of Sunday, the total number of deaths in Alberta was 23.."

There is a distinct lack of data to put it in perspective. How many people die every single day anyway?

https://open.alberta.ca/opendata/alberta-annual-deaths-totals

I checked up some of the data.

In 2014 on average 48 people aged >65 and 18 people aged <65 were dying EVERYDAY. (average 66 total dying per day for an annual total of about 24,000 deaths in 2014)

What I want reported everyday now is how many TOTAL number of people die. Regardless of covid19. And then compare this to figures from last year.

This allows us to see how many more people are dying from Covid19 than usual.

Just reporting how many deaths from covid19 everyday is just SCARE MONGERING.

I get it that the Public Health Officers do want to scare people so that everyone stays at home. But at some stage we have to let people decide for themselves if all this is truly worth it.

It is fine to hit pause and stop , get more data, analyze and then decide what to do. We are about around the time where we need to disseminate that data so people can choose for themselves.

A few days ago list of causes of death in one day in mid March NY was posted in this forum. The numbers added up to about 6500. Covid-19 was 6th or 7th on the list.

A week or so later the headlined screamed that Covid-19 had moved up to 3rd place! Scary stuff indeed.

However when I added up all the deaths again the difference in the total number of deaths was negligible.

This is how dishonest the reporting has become.

 

[nayr69sg]

A few days ago list of causes of death in one day in mid March NY was posted in this forum. The numbers added up to about 6500. Covid-19 was 6th or 7th on the list.

A week or so later the headlined screamed that Covid-19 had moved up to 3rd place! Scary stuff indeed.

However when I added up all the deaths again the difference in the total number of deaths was negligible.

This is how dishonest the reporting has become.

Yes indeed.

It is media driven.

Journalists.

The provision of information and data in the absence of other data can convey a very different message.

As you rightly pointed out again and again.

The narrative has to change sooner than later. You cant keep doing this flattening of the economy for 2 years just so the hospitals are not overwhelmed.

 

[Leongsam]

Yes indeed.

It is media driven.

Journalists.

The provision of information and data in the absence of other data can convey a very different message.

As you rightly pointed out again and again.

The narrative has to change sooner than later. You cant keep doing this flattening of the economy for 2 years just so the hospitals are not overwhelmed.

If the media actually showed that they were analysing things as impartially as possible I'd be able to put some trust on the tens of thousands of reports that are being churned out daily.

The problem now is that I trust nobody. I used to have faith in the so called reputable news outlets like NYT, BBC etc. Events in recent years have taught me that they are no better than a tabloid. In fact they are worse. At least tabloids don't try to sound serious.

I therefore am forced to piece together my own conclusions based upon my now rusty knowledge of statistical analysis.

I am also wise to the tricks that are used to make the stats fit the narrative because that is what I used to do when preparing quality presentations to a customer.

Simple example : In manufacturing there is no way that 100% inspection can be performed on every item so samples are taken based upon an AQL level agreed to between supplier and customer.

So in a sampling plan 1 reject out of 1250 samples could be deemed as acceptable.

However if I was going to do a presentation to a customer it would look bad to have 1 reject and it could then lead to other questions and derail the narrative which was supposed to be how good our product quality was.

So I would simply pull another sample and another till I got the 0/1250 that I wanted.

 

[nayr69sg]

If the media actually showed that they were analysing things as impartially as possible I'd be able to put some trust on the tens of thousands of reports that are being churned out daily.

The problem now is that I trust nobody. I used to have faith in the so called reputable news outlets like NYT, BBC etc. Events in recent years have taught me that they are no better than a tabloid. In fact they are worse. At least tabloids don't try to sound serious.

I therefore am forced to piece together my own conclusions based upon my now rusty knowledge of statistical analysis.

I am also wise to the tricks that are used to make the stats fit the narrative because that is what I used to do when preparing quality presentations to a customer.

Simple example : In manufacturing there is no way that 100% inspection can be performed on every item so samples are taken based upon an AQL level agreed to between supplier and customer.

So in a sampling plan 1 reject out of 1250 samples could be deemed as acceptable.

However if I was going to do a presentation to a customer it would look bad to have 1 reject and it could then lead to other questions and derail the narrative which was supposed to be how good our product quality was.

So I would simply pull another sample and another till I got the 0/1250 that I wanted.

Selective data reporting. Bravo!

 

[Leongsam]

Selective data reporting. Bravo!

More interesting is what transpired to lead me down this path.

When I first graduated as a green horn my integrity and honesty were paramount. The PAP had brainwashed me into believing that as Singaporeans we were above board in all aspects of life and it was because of that we were so much more successful compared to our lying, conniving neighboring countries.

This attitude almost derailed my career because I would report quality results with 100% accuracy to my customers believing that it was for the best long term and it would build trust.

However I soon found out that my competitors fighting for the same business had no scruples whatsoever when it came to massaging numbers and because of that they were winning orders and I was losing out.

The reality of real world took hold and I learned to play the game.

It's sad but it's a fact of life.

 

[syed putra]

When I first graduated as a green horn my integrity and honesty were paramount. The PAP had brainwashed me into believing that as Singaporeans we were above board in all aspects of life and it was because of that we were so much more successful compared to our lying, conniving neighboring countries.

Neighbours think similarly until they land on the island and learned that it thrives on hoodwinking.

 

[sweetiepie]

How long are you mentally prepared for this economic shutdown?

I know different people have a different number of months or weeks that they think this will last for.

The models that countries are using to make decisions now all say this could last 12 to 24 months.

KNN my uncle is financially prepared for indefinite economic shutdown but the question for him is he might not live long enough to spend his money KNN

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

How long are you mentally prepared for this economic shutdown?

I know different people have a different number of months or weeks that they think this will last for.

The models that countries are using to make decisions now all say this could last 12 to 24 months.

In other words if you want to continue to "flatten the curve" the curve will last 1-2 years.

I personally don't think that is practical.

Some will say oh the models are just projections using current data. When things improve the model projections will change as well. Really?

Depends on whether you are debt free or indebted, whether you have large recurring bills/expenses (non-luxury related), whether you have sufficient savings or even passive income from "safe" non-property, non-emerging market type of investments.

These are issues to be taken care of during peace time. During war time, like now, I think some people will perish due to indebtedness

 

[tanwahtiu]

There is not enough lands to build age homes and retirement villages anymore, max...

1 billion baby boomers are in retiring mood best option is to chop heads, no mercy....

 

[myfoot123]

How long are you mentally prepared for this economic shutdown?

I know different people have a different number of months or weeks that they think this will last for.

The models that countries are using to make decisions now all say this could last 12 to 24 months.

In other words if you want to continue to "flatten the curve" the curve will last 1-2 years.

I personally don't think that is practical.

Some will say oh the models are just projections using current data. When things improve the model projections will change as well. Really?

If it can turn Singapore into a welfare state, why not? The rich people have had enough of their field day. Time to flip them over and milk their resource.

 

[myfoot123]

Depends on whether you are debt free or indebted, whether you have large recurring bills/expenses (non-luxury related), whether you have sufficient savings or even passive income from "safe" non-property, non-emerging market type of investments.

These are issues to be taken care of during peace time. During war time, like now, I think some people will perish due to indebtedness

In war time, no one will remember your debt. The banks will be closed down. Your savings will be depreciated, your property has no value and your investments became toxic product. You have better keep gold in your biscuit tin instead.

 

[tanwahtiu]

In bad times, get into gangster security biz. Pretend protecting biz and behind create gangster to whack them.

Like lawyers make money bothsides...

 

[knowwhatyouwantinlife]

Current circuit breaker happened because one minister, a female one nonetheless had no empathy for the few hundred k of foreign workers living in dormitory...benefit of hindsight? I dont think so when one is paid millions

 

[nightsafari]

How long are you mentally prepared for this economic shutdown?

I know different people have a different number of months or weeks that they think this will last for.

The models that countries are using to make decisions now all say this could last 12 to 24 months.

In other words if you want to continue to "flatten the curve" the curve will last 1-2 years.

I personally don't think that is practical.

Some will say oh the models are just projections using current data. When things improve the model projections will change as well. Really?

this crisis is a precipitation of psychological heuristics. It's resolution lies within the same framework, by mid or end-summer, northern hemisphere countries will be back to somewhat normal.

 

[nightsafari]

A few days ago list of causes of death in one day in mid March NY was posted in this forum. The numbers added up to about 6500. Covid-19 was 6th or 7th on the list.

A week or so later the headlined screamed that Covid-19 had moved up to 3rd place! Scary stuff indeed.

However when I added up all the deaths again the difference in the total number of deaths was negligible.

This is how dishonest the reporting has become.

since when has the world in general been honest? and you already have 1st hand experience of journalistic reporting...

 

[nightsafari]

KNN my uncle is financially prepared for indefinite economic shutdown but the question for him is he might not live long enough to spend his money KNN

knn you are not going to die lah knn...

 

[laksaboy]

To quote the very wise Joker:

When the chips are down, these... these civilized people, they'll eat each other.

 

[sweetiepie]

knn you are not going to die lah knn...

KNN my uncle happened to have underlying health condition and a smoker so is inside the 5% KNN