https://hk.news.yahoo.com/【bond-desk】樓市最恐怖會跌七成（dr-ng）-133659243.html
【Bond Desk】樓市最恐怖會跌七成（Dr.Ng）
蘋果動新聞
324 人追蹤
2018年10月23日 下午9:36
今天港股下跌806點！如我所料中國大陸救市對市場產生的反應越來越小！今次維持了兩三天就玩完！今天一嘢就打回原形，挾死班好倉友！昨天就挾死淡倉！左右連環掌！勁過如來神掌！
入正題。樓市下跌週期其實已經開始，這是一個不需要爭論的事實，不認不認還須認。
大家期待已久就是等我講樓市！是嗎？樓市下跌已成趨勢，明燈英喊都無所謂，每月繼續供樓啦。話畀你聽、你的供樓負擔會越來越重，上次聽你講每月要多供10,000小元，小數目啫！向客戶收取的管理費夠畀。可惜是這個數目竟然會識自己變大，原因是美國和香港會一直加息、通脹上升、聯儲局要把利率正常化。你是基金推銷員、不知道嗎？你不懂得息率上升時，樓價自然會下跌嗎？供樓負擔會增加嗎？普通常識都不知道？怎做基金呵！讀番個真正大學博士回來再說吧！
畀一些近期成交個案你睇，劈價一成是常態！先開始有人睇樓、最多劈三成！
東涌特色戶低估值三成賣、將軍澳一日7宗降價。二手樓價跌勢顯著，較個別銀行估價低近30%，10年僅升值約27%上車盤減幅亦不斷擴大，名都累減27.2萬元，以502.8萬元承接！新港城樓價險守「6球」，屋苑A座低層7室，開價640萬元，減價40萬元後獲承接，低市價5%。將軍澳單日再錄至少7個放盤下調叫價，緻藍天，大幅減價150萬元或13%，以1,026萬元放售。海天晉開價亦由1,600萬元，調低至1,500萬元。中半山豪宅業主，本身叫價已經比樓上樓下平兩成，一於再減，再劈成2,000萬求甩貨，減完之後叫價足足比樓上樓下平咗成4000萬。
新盤逸瑆，第一日賣完5間就無咗影，減價再賣都係賣多6間，後尾仲有一間撻埋訂。鯉魚門個盤第一日推130個單位，賣得40幾間，即晚仲係咁甩單。上源第二輪即刻賣得一半左右，臨尾仲有成十粒撻訂。
上星期招標嘅文輝道地皮，有人仲吹到佢市值400幾億，不過到截標時，得5個財團入標，其中一個仲要有成六份人夾，誰不知最終仍流埋標，文輝道豪宅地王流標後，屯門藍地福亨村里截標，僅收3份標書，為近四年賣地最少。要錢唔要貨、地都唔投，政府稅收大幅下降，下年或有財政赤字。
水藍天岸新近以1,500萬元沽出，成交價較恆生估價2,250萬元，低出750萬元或33%。澤豐花園叫價550萬元，累減157萬元或約29%，至393萬元售。中半山花園台，原以1.25億元放售，近日減至約1億元售出，減幅約兩成。對上一宗成交於去年以9,920萬元沽出，是次成交價重番去年價錢。最後車位回報1%唔跌就見鬼，人踩人好快出現，跟著到車位人踩人，車位劈價會勁過樓價，因不是必須品，更無所謂假的「剛性需求」。
樓市下跌週期其實已經開始、這是一個不需要爭論的事實。不認不認還須認，再講多一次沒有假跌這回事，這是一個真真實實的下跌，而且是一個消耗性的下跌。樓市會拾級而下一步一步地下跌，以我估計最多可以下跌60至70%，即是得番現在的三成至四成。原因十分簡單完全不複雜。
第一：加息；
第二：中國被全世界圍堵，面臨一個史無前例的惡劣環境；
第三：地緣政治因素變得十分緊張、尤其是台灣海峽及南海、隨時擦槍走火；
第四：歐債危機隨時又再殺到嚟；
第五：全球性通脹升溫，導致物價飛升。全球的GDP將會急劇下降，香港及中國大量工廠及公司會倒閉、引致失業率急升，但通脹亦急劇上升，因為美國對中國的貿易戰會加劇，令到原材料及金屬價格會急升。物價上升令到人民生活痛苦。
第六：大量新落成樓宇供應，發展商急速散貨。因為如果唔散貨就要付出空置稅，所以一手樓宇會劈價促銷、令到二手市場冰封，導致二手市場和一手市場互相爭取客源，互相劈價惡性循環，二手樓宇和一手樓宇互相廝殺，大家要錢唔要貨。
第七：租金會急速下調。因為如果二手賣唔出，業主供樓負擔急速增加，因為息口上升、但又賣不出，唯一辦法就是將租金減價，盡快租出減輕負擔，租金劈價潮很快就會見到！
第八：隨著租金和價格下跌、負資產將會重現市場、銀行資產負債表將會惡化。銀行借貸會變得審慎，成交加速萎縮，令到市場資金短缺。市民及企業更難得到銀行的借貸。市場交投大幅收縮，令市場淡靜如死海般！你看現在發展商連投地也不投，投資變得十分審慎。大家都是沒有膽量去大舉投資，全部因為息口將會急劇上升而令到借貸成本增加。
發展商不是傻的，他們不投地當然覺得地價已經太貴、樓價已經太貴是回調的一個極好的時間，冇可能麵粉貴過麵包。即是地價一定會大幅回調、如果地價回調樓價亦要回調、這是正常的規律。市場上流標情況將會陸續發生，政府稅收大部分是來自售賣地皮，如果不停流標，政府稅收將會大幅下跌！亦都因為市場上大量企業將會倒閉，政府的利得稅會大幅減少，所以我預計就算下年政府沒有赤字，盈餘也不會多，會比今年大幅減少，明年市民現在所享有的稅務優惠下年將會完全取消。如果政府稅收減少，而又要繼續去投資一帶一路及大灣區的發展、政府必定要向市民增加稅收來填補虧蝕。另外一種問題帶出就是政府庫房因為要大量投資入大灣區及一帶一路的項目！如果這兩個項目有什麼差池，香港的外滙儲備將會受到很大的影響，聯繫滙率亦都會危危呼！
第九：北水這回事已經消失了。因為大陸自身難保，上面大量企業違約，市民亦大量投資入房地產，而地產市道都急劇逆轉。大陸市民在私人投資上有大量的虧蝕已成事實！大陸的樓市已經進入一個隨時爆煲的狀態。那麼何來有北水南下呢。你睇不睇到現在中國政府和香港政府都呼籲香港市民投資去大灣區去買樓，當然現在的情況就是南水北上，香港的錢要衝向大陸幫助大陸救國。時勢已經逆轉了，世界輪流轉，現在是香港的錢湧向大陸！
另外一種情況證明我的分析是對的，就是同股不同權已成事實，這些所謂獨角獸公司在大陸也不能上市但在香港可以順利上市，你就可以見到這些公司是想在香港取得資金而不再大陸籌集資金，另外的說法就是南水北上。另外一種說法香港就是自動提款機。散戶輸晒！
黃金
黃金這個問題十分複雜，我首先十分認真地強調，如果你投資黃金，一定不能做槓桿，否則會輸身家連命都冇！如果有一日我建議你們買黃金，你要買實金，記著記著，否則我亦都只能給你四個字：好自為之！唔關我事是你自己身痕貪心自己攞嚟的。
黃金在這幾年不停地下跌！很多人已經覺得他冇投資的價值！今年黃金已經由今年高位1,300多美元下跌到現在1,200多美元，跌了8至9%，低位見1,180美元，原因就是黃金這一年已經和人民幣拍拖！如膠似漆、羅曼蒂克好似一對戀人。
人民幣上升，黃金就上升。人民幣下跌，黃金就下跌！但在這幾天情況可能有逆轉，黃金的價格和人民幣已經有脫鈎的情況出現，人民幣繼續下滑，但黃金已由1,180多美元上升至1200多美元，有脫鈎的可能性出現！我們現在要開始留意黃金的走勢是否有個突破，最主要黃金的上升是因為地緣政治因素開始有緊張情況出現。
首先在11月，將會有全球軍演在台灣海峽南海發生。全球20多國的國家將會在台灣海峽及南海不停游來游去，去挑釁中國！上兩個星期在南海區域美國驅逐艦差點和中國驅逐艦相撞相差只有41米！而今個星期亦都有歷史以來首隻美國軍方的研究船還在高雄港停泊。
大陸官員曾經在上年講過，如果有美國軍艦在高雄港停泊將會是中國出兵台灣的時日！今次雖然美國軍方的研究船在高雄港停泊，但是大陸的反應是十分溫和！他們只說這只不過是軍方研究船還不是軍艦，所以不用出兵。中國繼續克制自己，但美國不停做出挑釁的行動。今次在11月如果有美國軍艦真的在高雄港停泊，中國會否出兵真是未知之數，現在美國和中方互相測試對方的底線，越嚟越明目張膽，我們作為市民應該作好最好的準備，因為如果一擦槍走火你們將會聽到爆彈碰碰碰碰的響、在睡夢中驚醒！
還有，隨著伊朗將會在1月被美國全面制裁石油出口、加上沙地阿拉伯因為記者被殺事件引起軒然大波！沙地阿拉伯可能亦都會減產石油令到石油價格急速上升，有機會升至100至200美元一桶！如果有這種事情發生，市場上將會出現恐慌，黃金有機會上升，所以大家要留意黃金的價格走勢作出適當的部署！
另外最基本原始根據黃金銀比例是在81以下！現在是83.61！十分接近！但不要墨守成規！不是絕對的！只供參考！如有戰爭！黃金就升，記著買實金！
美國加力打壓中國
美國財政部報告被視為對中國最後一次鳴槍示警。
美國財政部並未將中國列為匯率操縱國，但其嚴厲的措辭與前幾次報告不同的是，美國財政部在周三報告中用一整章概述了對美國對華貿易順差的擔憂，並稱中國不公開匯市干預信息，令美國「深感失望」。下次冇咁好彩！即是last warning！加上特朗普計劃退出「國際郵政聯盟」，因為這些多年中國透過此聯盟，中國企業運送小形包裹到美國，獲得運費折扣，美國退出聯盟，意味中國付貨人以後少了這份補貼。
美國郵政2017年因補貼中國付貨人，而損失1.7億美元，大量假貨及危險藥物，由中國流入美國。中國在這方面的企業將會雪上加霜成本將會大大上升而競爭力亦會隨之減低。令到更多這類型的公司或企業將會倒閉。
結論
在聯儲局會抽走廉價資金之際，現金才是王道。在這樣的日子裡，你最好能夠展示自己留存現金的能力和智慧！而不是花錢去買一些無用的東西及做大花筒。現在要做積蓄準備好將來大舉投資。這次是所有現在無樓無股票的聰明投資者的強勢表現！這批精明的投資者將來必有大展拳腳的好機會。
記着現金為王是對的。現金為王不是現在，是將來當所有資產跌到垃圾的情況之下你的現金就是皇帝，所有現在貴價物件都會變成垃圾，屆時你的現金就大派用場，你就可以大展拳腳有咁多買咁多平到你笑。所以，現金為王不是現在，是將來發生的事，你就會發覺手持大量現金的威力！例如如果你450元賣騰訊，未來250元就可以買番，爽啦！如果跌到40元呢？你會開心到睡不到！不要理那些無聊無智慧的九流基金推銷員，我計過明燈英在6月和8月提供給大家的中美日股票大多數已經跌了有些30%左右！佢自己都謝哂！佢經常說要有plan b；但原來他的plan b是由一個氹跳入第二個更深的氹！佢個基金由一月至現在已下跌超過20%！信佢一成、慘過失明！現在香港及環球情況我其實在二月和七月的訪問已經多次提出！歐洲債災會緊隨新興市場經濟體制下跌爆破！之後就是納指和美國經濟自動波爆炸。當時受到不少有利益關係的基金推銷員的批評，可惜劇情是跟我走，劇本準確一一實現在你們眼前，無任何地方錯誤。我話股市樓市債市會消耗性下跌，果然股市債市真的在這八個月消耗性下跌，樓市現正也開始下跌出現，賴小强講的恒指會從二月開始「慢牛」拾級而上沒有發生。
賴小強話的，但其實是慢熊，拾級而下，笑到肚子痛、抵死、太囂張！我叫人cash is king，明燈英就話冇幾千萬以上現金都冇資格講cash is king！太囂張！現在恒指到了25,000，你們都無話可說，認命啦！今天日本跌542，香港跌806！小英三面被挾死！佢隻基金主要投資的日本香港和美國佢都中哂招！今天佢隻小型基金最少跌2%或以上！佢班投資者仲要繼續愁眉苦面！走啦！我教你！清倉然後做大熊用身家沽期指～曲線。你話㗎！不要乜都唔做，好似我哋呢班儍瓜！
跟隨我的朋友已經有八個月，我們每日嘻嘻哈哈度日，玩了八個月。跟著他們的投資者就慘了，日日愁眉苦臉地度日，每日都計數越輸越多，無底深潭。建議他們清倉基金然後做美元定期！安全又最少有3.5%回報！我當然是講針對我的賴小強和明燈英啦！我的FB開了6個月，跟隨者急速上升至超過9100人，我以心對人，無利可圖、無利益衝突、全部講真心話，唔係老㸃！我和我的支持者如同兄弟一起度過快樂的八個月，大家心安理得，無憂無慮，大家用中式拍掌支持。～曲缐
補充結論。沽手上股票高風險債券及所有基金，做美元定期。保持實力，MPF轉做money market fund only。
Dr.Ng有逾30年債券投資經驗，40歲退休前從事牙醫
[Bond Desk] The most terrible property market will fall by 70% (Dr.Ng)
[Apple News]
Apple News
324 people tracked
October 23, 2018, 9:36 PM
Hong Kong stocks fell 806 points today! As I expected, the Chinese market rescue response to the market is getting smaller and smaller! I have finished playing for two or three days! Today, I will fight back to the original shape, and I will kill my classmates! Yesterday died short! Left and right chain palm! Passing through the palm of your hand!
Into the topic. The downturn cycle of the property market has actually begun. This is a fact that does not need to be debated.
Everyone has been waiting for me to talk about the property market for a long time! is it? The decline in the property market has become a trend, and it does not matter if the Ming Deng Ying shouts. If you listen, your burden on the building will be heavier and heavier. Last time I heard you tell me more than 10,000 yuan a month, a small number! The management fee charged to the customer is sufficient. It is a pity that this number will actually become bigger. The reason is that the United States and Hong Kong will continue to raise interest rates, inflation will rise, and the Fed will normalize interest rates. You are a fund salesman, don't you know? If you don't understand how the interest rate rises, will property prices fall naturally? Will the burden on the building increase? I don’t know the general knowledge? How to do the fund! Read a real university doctor back and talk about it!
畀 Some recent transactions have you stunned, and the price is 10%. Start with someone, up to 30%!
The Tung Chung feature has a low valuation of 30%, and Tseung Kwan O has a price reduction of 7 per day. Second-hand property prices have dropped significantly, which is nearly 30% lower than the valuation of individual banks. In the past 10 years, only about 27% of the increase in the number of vehicles has been expanding. The name has been reduced by 272,000 yuan to 502.8 million yuan! The price of Xingang City is “6 balls”. The 7th floor of Block A of the housing estate has a price of 6.4 million yuan. After the price reduction of 400,000 yuan, it will be accepted. The low market price is 5%. Tseung Kwan O re-recorded at least 7 listings in a single day to reduce the asking price, resulting in a blue sky, a substantial reduction of 1.5 million yuan or 13%, for sale of 10.26 million yuan. The price of Haitian Jin was also lowered from $16 million to $15 million. The owner of the Mid-Levels Mansion luxury property has already priced at 20% higher than the upstairs and the downstairs. Once again, it will be reduced to 20 million for the goods. After the reduction, the asking price will be 40 million more than the upstairs and downstairs.
The new Pan Yi Yi, the first day after selling 5 rooms, there is no shadow, the price is reduced and then sold are sold more than 6 rooms, there is a plaque in the back. The first day of the squid door pushed 130 units and sold for 40 rooms, that is, the late Zhong dynasty. The second round of Shangyuan immediately sold about half of it, and the end of the tail had ten pieces.
Last week, the tender was tendered to the land of the land. Some people rushed to the market with a market value of more than 400 million. However, when the tender was closed, five consortia were selected. One of them had six people, but who did not know that it would still be buried. After the Huidao mansion landlord's standard, the Tuanmen Landi Fuheng Village closed the tender, only received 3 tenders, the least for the past four years. If the money is required for the goods and the land is thrown, the government's tax revenue will drop sharply, and there will be a fiscal deficit next year.
The water blue sky bank has recently been sold out at a price of 15 million yuan. The transaction price is estimated at 22.5 million yuan compared with Hang Seng, which is 7.5 million yuan or 33% lower. Zefeng Garden is asking for a price of 5.5 million yuan, a reduction of 1.57 million yuan or about 29%, to sell for 3.93 million yuan. The Mid-Levels Garden Terrace was originally sold at $125 million and was recently reduced to approximately $100 million, a decrease of about 20%. The previous transaction was sold at 99.2 million yuan last year, and the transaction price doubled last year's price. In the end, the return of the parking space is 1%. It is a ghost. People step on people and appear on the road. Follow the people in the parking space. The price of the parking space will exceed the price of the property. Because it is not a necessity, there is no such thing as a "rigid demand."
The downturn in the property market has actually begun, and this is a fact that does not need to be debated. If you don’t admit it, you have to recognize it. If you don’t have a false fall, it’s a real decline, and it’s a consumable decline. The property market will pick up the level and fall next step. I estimate that it can fall by 60 to 70% at most, that is, 30% to 40% of the current price. The reason is very simple and completely uncomplicated.
First: rate hike;
Second: China is surrounded by the world and faces an unprecedented harsh environment;
Third: geopolitical factors have become very tense, especially in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, at any time;
Fourth: The European debt crisis will be killed again at any time;
Fifth: Global inflation is heating up, causing prices to soar. Global GDP will drop sharply. A large number of factories and companies in Hong Kong and China will collapse and the unemployment rate will rise sharply. However, inflation will rise sharply as the US trade war with China will intensify, and the prices of raw materials and metals will soar. The rise in prices has caused people’s lives to suffer.
Sixth: A large number of newly completed buildings are supplied, and developers are experiencing rapid bulk cargo. This is because if the bulk cargo is to be levied, the first-hand flats will be priced at a low price, and the second-hand market will be frozen. As a result, the second-hand market and the primary market will compete for each other and the price will be mutually vicious. Second-hand buildings and first-hand buildings will kill each other. Everyone wants money to buy goods.
Seventh: The rent will be lowered rapidly. Because if the second-hand sales are sold out, the burden on the landlord will increase rapidly. Because the interest rate rises but cannot be sold, the only way is to reduce the rent and rent it as soon as possible to reduce the burden. The rent price will soon be seen!
Eighth: As rents and prices fall, negative assets will reappear in the market, and bank balance sheets will deteriorate. Bank lending will become cautious, and transactions will accelerate and shrink, resulting in a shortage of market funds. It is even harder for citizens and businesses to get loans from banks. The market has contracted sharply, making the market quiet like the Dead Sea! You see that developers are not investing in investment, and investment has become very cautious. Everyone is not courageous to invest heavily, all because the interest rate will rise sharply and the cost of borrowing will increase.
Developers are not stupid. They don’t want to vote. Of course, the land price is too expensive, and the property price is too expensive. It’s an excellent time for the callback. That is to say, the land price will definitely be adjusted back sharply. If the land price is adjusted, the property price will also be adjusted back. This is a normal law. The market flow situation will happen one after another. Most of the government tax revenue comes from the sale of land. If the flow rate is kept, the government tax will fall sharply! Since the large number of companies in the market will go bankrupt, the government's profits tax will be greatly reduced. Therefore, I expect that even if the government does not have a deficit next year, there will be no surplus, which will be significantly reduced compared with this year. Under the tax concessions enjoyed by the citizens next year. The year will be completely cancelled. If the government's tax revenue is reduced and it is necessary to continue to invest in the development of the Belt and Road and the Dawan District, the government must increase taxes to the public to fill the losses. Another problem that has arisen is that the government warehouses have to invest heavily in the Dawan District and the Belt and Road project! If there is any difference between the two projects, Hong Kong's foreign exchange reserves will be greatly affected, and the linked exchange rate will be in danger!
Ninth: The matter of Beishui has disappeared. Because the mainland itself is difficult to protect, a large number of enterprises above defaulted, the public also invested heavily in real estate, and the real estate market has been sharply reversed. It is a fact that mainland citizens have a lot of losses in private investment! The mainland's property market has entered a state of extinction. So why come north and south? You can't wait until now. Both the Chinese government and the Hong Kong government have called on Hong Kong citizens to invest in Dawan District to buy flats. Of course, the current situation is that the South China Sea is going north, and Hong Kong's money is going to the mainland to help the mainland save the country. The situation has reversed, the world is turning, and now Hong Kong’s money is flooding the mainland!
Another case proves that my analysis is correct. It is the fact that the rights of the same shares have become a reality. These so-called unicorn companies cannot be listed on the mainland but can be listed in Hong Kong smoothly. You can see that these companies want to obtain in Hong Kong. Funds are no longer raised by the mainland, and the other is that the South is north. Another way of saying that Hong Kong is an ATM. Retail investors lose their sun!
gold
The problem of gold is very complicated. I first seriously stressed that if you invest in gold, you must not make leverage, otherwise you will lose your life! If one day I suggest you buy gold, you have to buy real gold, remember to remember, otherwise I can only give you four words: good self! My concern is that you are greedy and guilty.
Gold has been falling for the past few years! Many people have already felt the value of his investment! This year, gold has fallen from a high of more than 1,300 US dollars this year to more than 1,200 US dollars, down 8 to 9%, and the low is seen at 1,180 US dollars. The reason is that gold has been dragged with the yuan this year! Such as glue-like paint, romantic is like a pair of lovers.
As the renminbi rises, gold rises. When the renminbi falls, gold will fall! However, in the past few days, the situation may have reversed. The price of gold and the renminbi have been decoupled. The renminbi continues to decline, but the price of gold has risen from more than 1,180 US dollars to more than 1,200 US dollars. There is a possibility of decoupling! We are now going to start to pay attention to whether there is a breakthrough in the trend of gold. The rise of the most important gold is due to the tension of geopolitical factors.
First, in November, there will be a global military exercise taking place in the South China Sea in the Taiwan Strait. Countries from more than 20 countries around the world will travel around the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea to provoke China! In the past two weeks, the American destroyer in the South China Sea region almost only collided with the Chinese destroyer at a distance of 41 meters! This week, the first US military research ship has also been parked in Kaohsiung Port.
Mainland officials once said in the past year that if a US warship is moored at Kaohsiung Port, it will be the time for China to send troops to Taiwan! Although the US military research ship is moored in Kaohsiung Port this time, the mainland's response is very mild! They only said that this is only a military research ship or a warship, so there is no need to send troops. China continues to restrain itself, but the United States continues to make provocative actions. If there is a US warship parked in Kaohsiung Port in November this time, it is really unknown whether China will send troops. Now the United States and China are testing each other’s bottom line. The more they are brazen, the better we should be prepared as citizens. Because if you get rid of a gun, you will hear the bumps and bumps, and wake up in your sleep!
Also, as Iran will be fully sanctioned by the United States in January for oil exports, and Saudi Arabia’s killings caused by journalists, it’s a big uproar! Saudi Arabia may also reduce oil production so that oil prices will rise sharply, and there is a chance to rise to $100 to $200 a barrel! If this happens, there will be panic in the market, and gold will have a chance to rise, so everyone should pay attention to the price of gold to make appropriate deployment!
In addition, the most basic original according to the ratio of gold and silver is below 81! It is now 83.61! Very close! But don't stick to the rules! Not absolute! For reference only! If there is war! Gold will rise, remember to buy real gold!
US efforts to suppress China
The US Treasury report was seen as the last warning shot against China.
The U.S. Treasury Department has not listed China as a currency manipulator, but its harsh wording is different from previous reports. The U.S. Treasury Department used an entire chapter in its report on Wednesday to outline concerns about the U.S. trade surplus with China. The United States is "deeply disappointed" that China does not disclose information on interventions in the currency market. The next time I am so good! That is the last warning! In addition, Trump plans to withdraw from the "International Postal Union", because these years of China through this alliance, Chinese companies to transport small parcels to the United States, get shipping discounts, the United States withdraw from the alliance, meaning that Chinese consignors will lose this subsidy.
In 2017, US Post lost US$170 million to subsidize Chinese shippers, and a large number of fakes and dangerous drugs flowed from China to the United States. The cost of China's enterprises in this area will be greatly increased and the competitiveness will be reduced. This will cause more companies or companies of this type to close down.
in conclusion
Cash is king when the Fed will take away cheap money. In such a day, you'd better be able to demonstrate your ability and wisdom to retain cash! Instead of spending money to buy something useless and make a big flower. Now make savings and prepare for a big investment in the future. This is the strong performance of all the smart investors who have no property and no stock now! These savvy investors will have a good opportunity to make a big difference in the future.
It is right to remember that cash is king. Cash is king, not now, in the future, when all the assets fall to the garbage, your cash is the emperor, all the expensive items will become garbage, then your cash will come in handy, you can make a big difference. I bought more and more flat to smile. Therefore, cash is not the king, it is the future, you will find the power of holding a lot of cash! For example, if you sell Tencent for 450 yuan, you can buy it in the next 250 yuan, cool! If it falls to 40 yuan? You will be happy to sleep! Regardless of the boring and unwise nine-flow fund salesman, I have counted that most of the Chinese, American and Japanese stocks that Ming Dengying offered to everyone in June and August have fallen by about 30%! The channel itself is thankful! The canal often says that there is a plan b; but it turns out that his plan b is jumped into a second deeper cockroach! One fund has fallen more than 20% from January to now! The letter channel is one, and the misfortune is blind! Now in Hong Kong and around the world, I have actually made many visits in February and July! The European debt crisis will follow the fall of the emerging market economic system! Then there was the automatic wave explosion of the Nasdaq and the US economy. At that time, I was criticized by many fund salesmen who had interests. Unfortunately, the plot was with me. The script was accurately realized before you, without any mistakes. My stock market property market will be consumable, and the stock market is really experiencing a decline in the eight months. The property market is also beginning to fall. The HSI, which Lai Xiaoqiang said, will start from the "slow cow" in February. And did not happen.
Lai Xiaoqiang's words, but in fact it is a slow bear, picking up the level, laughing to stomach pain, death, too arrogant! I am calling cash is king, Ming Dengying is talking about tens of millions of dollars in cash and is qualified to say cash is king! Too embarrassing! Now that the HSI has reached 25,000, you have nothing to say, accept your life! Today Japan fell 542, Hong Kong fell 806! Xiaoying was killed on three sides! The main investment of the channel fund is Hong Kong and the United States. Today, the mini-funds have fallen by at least 2% or more! Investors in the channel must continue to frown! Go! I teach you! Clearance and then do the big bear with the body 沽 沽 ～ ～ curve. What are you talking about! Don't do it all, just like I am a fool!
I have been with my friend for eight months, and we have been happily playing for eight months. The investors who followed them will be miserable, and they will spend their days sullenly, and the more they count every day, the more they will lose. It is recommended that they clear the fund and then do the dollar regularly! Safety is at least 3.5% return! Of course, I am talking about Lai Xiaoqiang and Ming Dengying! My FB has been open for 6 months, and the followers have risen rapidly to more than 9,100 people. I am heart-to-heart, unprofitable, no conflict of interest, all truthful, and old-fashioned! My supporters and my brothers spent eight months happy together with their brothers. Everyone was relieved and carefree. Everyone used Chinese to clap their hands. ~曲缐
Supplementary conclusions.股票 Hand stock high-risk bonds and all funds, do dollars regularly. Maintaining strength, MPF switched to money market fund only.
Dr.Ng has over 30 years of bond investment experience and is a dentist before retiring at 40.
【Bond Desk】樓市最恐怖會跌七成（Dr.Ng）
蘋果動新聞
324 人追蹤
2018年10月23日 下午9:36
今天港股下跌806點！如我所料中國大陸救市對市場產生的反應越來越小！今次維持了兩三天就玩完！今天一嘢就打回原形，挾死班好倉友！昨天就挾死淡倉！左右連環掌！勁過如來神掌！
入正題。樓市下跌週期其實已經開始，這是一個不需要爭論的事實，不認不認還須認。
大家期待已久就是等我講樓市！是嗎？樓市下跌已成趨勢，明燈英喊都無所謂，每月繼續供樓啦。話畀你聽、你的供樓負擔會越來越重，上次聽你講每月要多供10,000小元，小數目啫！向客戶收取的管理費夠畀。可惜是這個數目竟然會識自己變大，原因是美國和香港會一直加息、通脹上升、聯儲局要把利率正常化。你是基金推銷員、不知道嗎？你不懂得息率上升時，樓價自然會下跌嗎？供樓負擔會增加嗎？普通常識都不知道？怎做基金呵！讀番個真正大學博士回來再說吧！
畀一些近期成交個案你睇，劈價一成是常態！先開始有人睇樓、最多劈三成！
東涌特色戶低估值三成賣、將軍澳一日7宗降價。二手樓價跌勢顯著，較個別銀行估價低近30%，10年僅升值約27%上車盤減幅亦不斷擴大，名都累減27.2萬元，以502.8萬元承接！新港城樓價險守「6球」，屋苑A座低層7室，開價640萬元，減價40萬元後獲承接，低市價5%。將軍澳單日再錄至少7個放盤下調叫價，緻藍天，大幅減價150萬元或13%，以1,026萬元放售。海天晉開價亦由1,600萬元，調低至1,500萬元。中半山豪宅業主，本身叫價已經比樓上樓下平兩成，一於再減，再劈成2,000萬求甩貨，減完之後叫價足足比樓上樓下平咗成4000萬。
新盤逸瑆，第一日賣完5間就無咗影，減價再賣都係賣多6間，後尾仲有一間撻埋訂。鯉魚門個盤第一日推130個單位，賣得40幾間，即晚仲係咁甩單。上源第二輪即刻賣得一半左右，臨尾仲有成十粒撻訂。
上星期招標嘅文輝道地皮，有人仲吹到佢市值400幾億，不過到截標時，得5個財團入標，其中一個仲要有成六份人夾，誰不知最終仍流埋標，文輝道豪宅地王流標後，屯門藍地福亨村里截標，僅收3份標書，為近四年賣地最少。要錢唔要貨、地都唔投，政府稅收大幅下降，下年或有財政赤字。
水藍天岸新近以1,500萬元沽出，成交價較恆生估價2,250萬元，低出750萬元或33%。澤豐花園叫價550萬元，累減157萬元或約29%，至393萬元售。中半山花園台，原以1.25億元放售，近日減至約1億元售出，減幅約兩成。對上一宗成交於去年以9,920萬元沽出，是次成交價重番去年價錢。最後車位回報1%唔跌就見鬼，人踩人好快出現，跟著到車位人踩人，車位劈價會勁過樓價，因不是必須品，更無所謂假的「剛性需求」。
樓市下跌週期其實已經開始、這是一個不需要爭論的事實。不認不認還須認，再講多一次沒有假跌這回事，這是一個真真實實的下跌，而且是一個消耗性的下跌。樓市會拾級而下一步一步地下跌，以我估計最多可以下跌60至70%，即是得番現在的三成至四成。原因十分簡單完全不複雜。
第一：加息；
第二：中國被全世界圍堵，面臨一個史無前例的惡劣環境；
第三：地緣政治因素變得十分緊張、尤其是台灣海峽及南海、隨時擦槍走火；
第四：歐債危機隨時又再殺到嚟；
第五：全球性通脹升溫，導致物價飛升。全球的GDP將會急劇下降，香港及中國大量工廠及公司會倒閉、引致失業率急升，但通脹亦急劇上升，因為美國對中國的貿易戰會加劇，令到原材料及金屬價格會急升。物價上升令到人民生活痛苦。
第六：大量新落成樓宇供應，發展商急速散貨。因為如果唔散貨就要付出空置稅，所以一手樓宇會劈價促銷、令到二手市場冰封，導致二手市場和一手市場互相爭取客源，互相劈價惡性循環，二手樓宇和一手樓宇互相廝殺，大家要錢唔要貨。
第七：租金會急速下調。因為如果二手賣唔出，業主供樓負擔急速增加，因為息口上升、但又賣不出，唯一辦法就是將租金減價，盡快租出減輕負擔，租金劈價潮很快就會見到！
第八：隨著租金和價格下跌、負資產將會重現市場、銀行資產負債表將會惡化。銀行借貸會變得審慎，成交加速萎縮，令到市場資金短缺。市民及企業更難得到銀行的借貸。市場交投大幅收縮，令市場淡靜如死海般！你看現在發展商連投地也不投，投資變得十分審慎。大家都是沒有膽量去大舉投資，全部因為息口將會急劇上升而令到借貸成本增加。
發展商不是傻的，他們不投地當然覺得地價已經太貴、樓價已經太貴是回調的一個極好的時間，冇可能麵粉貴過麵包。即是地價一定會大幅回調、如果地價回調樓價亦要回調、這是正常的規律。市場上流標情況將會陸續發生，政府稅收大部分是來自售賣地皮，如果不停流標，政府稅收將會大幅下跌！亦都因為市場上大量企業將會倒閉，政府的利得稅會大幅減少，所以我預計就算下年政府沒有赤字，盈餘也不會多，會比今年大幅減少，明年市民現在所享有的稅務優惠下年將會完全取消。如果政府稅收減少，而又要繼續去投資一帶一路及大灣區的發展、政府必定要向市民增加稅收來填補虧蝕。另外一種問題帶出就是政府庫房因為要大量投資入大灣區及一帶一路的項目！如果這兩個項目有什麼差池，香港的外滙儲備將會受到很大的影響，聯繫滙率亦都會危危呼！
第九：北水這回事已經消失了。因為大陸自身難保，上面大量企業違約，市民亦大量投資入房地產，而地產市道都急劇逆轉。大陸市民在私人投資上有大量的虧蝕已成事實！大陸的樓市已經進入一個隨時爆煲的狀態。那麼何來有北水南下呢。你睇不睇到現在中國政府和香港政府都呼籲香港市民投資去大灣區去買樓，當然現在的情況就是南水北上，香港的錢要衝向大陸幫助大陸救國。時勢已經逆轉了，世界輪流轉，現在是香港的錢湧向大陸！
另外一種情況證明我的分析是對的，就是同股不同權已成事實，這些所謂獨角獸公司在大陸也不能上市但在香港可以順利上市，你就可以見到這些公司是想在香港取得資金而不再大陸籌集資金，另外的說法就是南水北上。另外一種說法香港就是自動提款機。散戶輸晒！
黃金
黃金這個問題十分複雜，我首先十分認真地強調，如果你投資黃金，一定不能做槓桿，否則會輸身家連命都冇！如果有一日我建議你們買黃金，你要買實金，記著記著，否則我亦都只能給你四個字：好自為之！唔關我事是你自己身痕貪心自己攞嚟的。
黃金在這幾年不停地下跌！很多人已經覺得他冇投資的價值！今年黃金已經由今年高位1,300多美元下跌到現在1,200多美元，跌了8至9%，低位見1,180美元，原因就是黃金這一年已經和人民幣拍拖！如膠似漆、羅曼蒂克好似一對戀人。
人民幣上升，黃金就上升。人民幣下跌，黃金就下跌！但在這幾天情況可能有逆轉，黃金的價格和人民幣已經有脫鈎的情況出現，人民幣繼續下滑，但黃金已由1,180多美元上升至1200多美元，有脫鈎的可能性出現！我們現在要開始留意黃金的走勢是否有個突破，最主要黃金的上升是因為地緣政治因素開始有緊張情況出現。
首先在11月，將會有全球軍演在台灣海峽南海發生。全球20多國的國家將會在台灣海峽及南海不停游來游去，去挑釁中國！上兩個星期在南海區域美國驅逐艦差點和中國驅逐艦相撞相差只有41米！而今個星期亦都有歷史以來首隻美國軍方的研究船還在高雄港停泊。
大陸官員曾經在上年講過，如果有美國軍艦在高雄港停泊將會是中國出兵台灣的時日！今次雖然美國軍方的研究船在高雄港停泊，但是大陸的反應是十分溫和！他們只說這只不過是軍方研究船還不是軍艦，所以不用出兵。中國繼續克制自己，但美國不停做出挑釁的行動。今次在11月如果有美國軍艦真的在高雄港停泊，中國會否出兵真是未知之數，現在美國和中方互相測試對方的底線，越嚟越明目張膽，我們作為市民應該作好最好的準備，因為如果一擦槍走火你們將會聽到爆彈碰碰碰碰的響、在睡夢中驚醒！
還有，隨著伊朗將會在1月被美國全面制裁石油出口、加上沙地阿拉伯因為記者被殺事件引起軒然大波！沙地阿拉伯可能亦都會減產石油令到石油價格急速上升，有機會升至100至200美元一桶！如果有這種事情發生，市場上將會出現恐慌，黃金有機會上升，所以大家要留意黃金的價格走勢作出適當的部署！
另外最基本原始根據黃金銀比例是在81以下！現在是83.61！十分接近！但不要墨守成規！不是絕對的！只供參考！如有戰爭！黃金就升，記著買實金！
美國加力打壓中國
美國財政部報告被視為對中國最後一次鳴槍示警。
美國財政部並未將中國列為匯率操縱國，但其嚴厲的措辭與前幾次報告不同的是，美國財政部在周三報告中用一整章概述了對美國對華貿易順差的擔憂，並稱中國不公開匯市干預信息，令美國「深感失望」。下次冇咁好彩！即是last warning！加上特朗普計劃退出「國際郵政聯盟」，因為這些多年中國透過此聯盟，中國企業運送小形包裹到美國，獲得運費折扣，美國退出聯盟，意味中國付貨人以後少了這份補貼。
美國郵政2017年因補貼中國付貨人，而損失1.7億美元，大量假貨及危險藥物，由中國流入美國。中國在這方面的企業將會雪上加霜成本將會大大上升而競爭力亦會隨之減低。令到更多這類型的公司或企業將會倒閉。
結論
在聯儲局會抽走廉價資金之際，現金才是王道。在這樣的日子裡，你最好能夠展示自己留存現金的能力和智慧！而不是花錢去買一些無用的東西及做大花筒。現在要做積蓄準備好將來大舉投資。這次是所有現在無樓無股票的聰明投資者的強勢表現！這批精明的投資者將來必有大展拳腳的好機會。
記着現金為王是對的。現金為王不是現在，是將來當所有資產跌到垃圾的情況之下你的現金就是皇帝，所有現在貴價物件都會變成垃圾，屆時你的現金就大派用場，你就可以大展拳腳有咁多買咁多平到你笑。所以，現金為王不是現在，是將來發生的事，你就會發覺手持大量現金的威力！例如如果你450元賣騰訊，未來250元就可以買番，爽啦！如果跌到40元呢？你會開心到睡不到！不要理那些無聊無智慧的九流基金推銷員，我計過明燈英在6月和8月提供給大家的中美日股票大多數已經跌了有些30%左右！佢自己都謝哂！佢經常說要有plan b；但原來他的plan b是由一個氹跳入第二個更深的氹！佢個基金由一月至現在已下跌超過20%！信佢一成、慘過失明！現在香港及環球情況我其實在二月和七月的訪問已經多次提出！歐洲債災會緊隨新興市場經濟體制下跌爆破！之後就是納指和美國經濟自動波爆炸。當時受到不少有利益關係的基金推銷員的批評，可惜劇情是跟我走，劇本準確一一實現在你們眼前，無任何地方錯誤。我話股市樓市債市會消耗性下跌，果然股市債市真的在這八個月消耗性下跌，樓市現正也開始下跌出現，賴小强講的恒指會從二月開始「慢牛」拾級而上沒有發生。
賴小強話的，但其實是慢熊，拾級而下，笑到肚子痛、抵死、太囂張！我叫人cash is king，明燈英就話冇幾千萬以上現金都冇資格講cash is king！太囂張！現在恒指到了25,000，你們都無話可說，認命啦！今天日本跌542，香港跌806！小英三面被挾死！佢隻基金主要投資的日本香港和美國佢都中哂招！今天佢隻小型基金最少跌2%或以上！佢班投資者仲要繼續愁眉苦面！走啦！我教你！清倉然後做大熊用身家沽期指～曲線。你話㗎！不要乜都唔做，好似我哋呢班儍瓜！
跟隨我的朋友已經有八個月，我們每日嘻嘻哈哈度日，玩了八個月。跟著他們的投資者就慘了，日日愁眉苦臉地度日，每日都計數越輸越多，無底深潭。建議他們清倉基金然後做美元定期！安全又最少有3.5%回報！我當然是講針對我的賴小強和明燈英啦！我的FB開了6個月，跟隨者急速上升至超過9100人，我以心對人，無利可圖、無利益衝突、全部講真心話，唔係老㸃！我和我的支持者如同兄弟一起度過快樂的八個月，大家心安理得，無憂無慮，大家用中式拍掌支持。～曲缐
補充結論。沽手上股票高風險債券及所有基金，做美元定期。保持實力，MPF轉做money market fund only。
Dr.Ng有逾30年債券投資經驗，40歲退休前從事牙醫
[Bond Desk] The most terrible property market will fall by 70% (Dr.Ng)
[Apple News]
Apple News
324 people tracked
October 23, 2018, 9:36 PM
Hong Kong stocks fell 806 points today! As I expected, the Chinese market rescue response to the market is getting smaller and smaller! I have finished playing for two or three days! Today, I will fight back to the original shape, and I will kill my classmates! Yesterday died short! Left and right chain palm! Passing through the palm of your hand!
Into the topic. The downturn cycle of the property market has actually begun. This is a fact that does not need to be debated.
Everyone has been waiting for me to talk about the property market for a long time! is it? The decline in the property market has become a trend, and it does not matter if the Ming Deng Ying shouts. If you listen, your burden on the building will be heavier and heavier. Last time I heard you tell me more than 10,000 yuan a month, a small number! The management fee charged to the customer is sufficient. It is a pity that this number will actually become bigger. The reason is that the United States and Hong Kong will continue to raise interest rates, inflation will rise, and the Fed will normalize interest rates. You are a fund salesman, don't you know? If you don't understand how the interest rate rises, will property prices fall naturally? Will the burden on the building increase? I don’t know the general knowledge? How to do the fund! Read a real university doctor back and talk about it!
畀 Some recent transactions have you stunned, and the price is 10%. Start with someone, up to 30%!
The Tung Chung feature has a low valuation of 30%, and Tseung Kwan O has a price reduction of 7 per day. Second-hand property prices have dropped significantly, which is nearly 30% lower than the valuation of individual banks. In the past 10 years, only about 27% of the increase in the number of vehicles has been expanding. The name has been reduced by 272,000 yuan to 502.8 million yuan! The price of Xingang City is “6 balls”. The 7th floor of Block A of the housing estate has a price of 6.4 million yuan. After the price reduction of 400,000 yuan, it will be accepted. The low market price is 5%. Tseung Kwan O re-recorded at least 7 listings in a single day to reduce the asking price, resulting in a blue sky, a substantial reduction of 1.5 million yuan or 13%, for sale of 10.26 million yuan. The price of Haitian Jin was also lowered from $16 million to $15 million. The owner of the Mid-Levels Mansion luxury property has already priced at 20% higher than the upstairs and the downstairs. Once again, it will be reduced to 20 million for the goods. After the reduction, the asking price will be 40 million more than the upstairs and downstairs.
The new Pan Yi Yi, the first day after selling 5 rooms, there is no shadow, the price is reduced and then sold are sold more than 6 rooms, there is a plaque in the back. The first day of the squid door pushed 130 units and sold for 40 rooms, that is, the late Zhong dynasty. The second round of Shangyuan immediately sold about half of it, and the end of the tail had ten pieces.
Last week, the tender was tendered to the land of the land. Some people rushed to the market with a market value of more than 400 million. However, when the tender was closed, five consortia were selected. One of them had six people, but who did not know that it would still be buried. After the Huidao mansion landlord's standard, the Tuanmen Landi Fuheng Village closed the tender, only received 3 tenders, the least for the past four years. If the money is required for the goods and the land is thrown, the government's tax revenue will drop sharply, and there will be a fiscal deficit next year.
The water blue sky bank has recently been sold out at a price of 15 million yuan. The transaction price is estimated at 22.5 million yuan compared with Hang Seng, which is 7.5 million yuan or 33% lower. Zefeng Garden is asking for a price of 5.5 million yuan, a reduction of 1.57 million yuan or about 29%, to sell for 3.93 million yuan. The Mid-Levels Garden Terrace was originally sold at $125 million and was recently reduced to approximately $100 million, a decrease of about 20%. The previous transaction was sold at 99.2 million yuan last year, and the transaction price doubled last year's price. In the end, the return of the parking space is 1%. It is a ghost. People step on people and appear on the road. Follow the people in the parking space. The price of the parking space will exceed the price of the property. Because it is not a necessity, there is no such thing as a "rigid demand."
The downturn in the property market has actually begun, and this is a fact that does not need to be debated. If you don’t admit it, you have to recognize it. If you don’t have a false fall, it’s a real decline, and it’s a consumable decline. The property market will pick up the level and fall next step. I estimate that it can fall by 60 to 70% at most, that is, 30% to 40% of the current price. The reason is very simple and completely uncomplicated.
First: rate hike;
Second: China is surrounded by the world and faces an unprecedented harsh environment;
Third: geopolitical factors have become very tense, especially in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, at any time;
Fourth: The European debt crisis will be killed again at any time;
Fifth: Global inflation is heating up, causing prices to soar. Global GDP will drop sharply. A large number of factories and companies in Hong Kong and China will collapse and the unemployment rate will rise sharply. However, inflation will rise sharply as the US trade war with China will intensify, and the prices of raw materials and metals will soar. The rise in prices has caused people’s lives to suffer.
Sixth: A large number of newly completed buildings are supplied, and developers are experiencing rapid bulk cargo. This is because if the bulk cargo is to be levied, the first-hand flats will be priced at a low price, and the second-hand market will be frozen. As a result, the second-hand market and the primary market will compete for each other and the price will be mutually vicious. Second-hand buildings and first-hand buildings will kill each other. Everyone wants money to buy goods.
Seventh: The rent will be lowered rapidly. Because if the second-hand sales are sold out, the burden on the landlord will increase rapidly. Because the interest rate rises but cannot be sold, the only way is to reduce the rent and rent it as soon as possible to reduce the burden. The rent price will soon be seen!
Eighth: As rents and prices fall, negative assets will reappear in the market, and bank balance sheets will deteriorate. Bank lending will become cautious, and transactions will accelerate and shrink, resulting in a shortage of market funds. It is even harder for citizens and businesses to get loans from banks. The market has contracted sharply, making the market quiet like the Dead Sea! You see that developers are not investing in investment, and investment has become very cautious. Everyone is not courageous to invest heavily, all because the interest rate will rise sharply and the cost of borrowing will increase.
Developers are not stupid. They don’t want to vote. Of course, the land price is too expensive, and the property price is too expensive. It’s an excellent time for the callback. That is to say, the land price will definitely be adjusted back sharply. If the land price is adjusted, the property price will also be adjusted back. This is a normal law. The market flow situation will happen one after another. Most of the government tax revenue comes from the sale of land. If the flow rate is kept, the government tax will fall sharply! Since the large number of companies in the market will go bankrupt, the government's profits tax will be greatly reduced. Therefore, I expect that even if the government does not have a deficit next year, there will be no surplus, which will be significantly reduced compared with this year. Under the tax concessions enjoyed by the citizens next year. The year will be completely cancelled. If the government's tax revenue is reduced and it is necessary to continue to invest in the development of the Belt and Road and the Dawan District, the government must increase taxes to the public to fill the losses. Another problem that has arisen is that the government warehouses have to invest heavily in the Dawan District and the Belt and Road project! If there is any difference between the two projects, Hong Kong's foreign exchange reserves will be greatly affected, and the linked exchange rate will be in danger!
Ninth: The matter of Beishui has disappeared. Because the mainland itself is difficult to protect, a large number of enterprises above defaulted, the public also invested heavily in real estate, and the real estate market has been sharply reversed. It is a fact that mainland citizens have a lot of losses in private investment! The mainland's property market has entered a state of extinction. So why come north and south? You can't wait until now. Both the Chinese government and the Hong Kong government have called on Hong Kong citizens to invest in Dawan District to buy flats. Of course, the current situation is that the South China Sea is going north, and Hong Kong's money is going to the mainland to help the mainland save the country. The situation has reversed, the world is turning, and now Hong Kong’s money is flooding the mainland!
Another case proves that my analysis is correct. It is the fact that the rights of the same shares have become a reality. These so-called unicorn companies cannot be listed on the mainland but can be listed in Hong Kong smoothly. You can see that these companies want to obtain in Hong Kong. Funds are no longer raised by the mainland, and the other is that the South is north. Another way of saying that Hong Kong is an ATM. Retail investors lose their sun!
gold
The problem of gold is very complicated. I first seriously stressed that if you invest in gold, you must not make leverage, otherwise you will lose your life! If one day I suggest you buy gold, you have to buy real gold, remember to remember, otherwise I can only give you four words: good self! My concern is that you are greedy and guilty.
Gold has been falling for the past few years! Many people have already felt the value of his investment! This year, gold has fallen from a high of more than 1,300 US dollars this year to more than 1,200 US dollars, down 8 to 9%, and the low is seen at 1,180 US dollars. The reason is that gold has been dragged with the yuan this year! Such as glue-like paint, romantic is like a pair of lovers.
As the renminbi rises, gold rises. When the renminbi falls, gold will fall! However, in the past few days, the situation may have reversed. The price of gold and the renminbi have been decoupled. The renminbi continues to decline, but the price of gold has risen from more than 1,180 US dollars to more than 1,200 US dollars. There is a possibility of decoupling! We are now going to start to pay attention to whether there is a breakthrough in the trend of gold. The rise of the most important gold is due to the tension of geopolitical factors.
First, in November, there will be a global military exercise taking place in the South China Sea in the Taiwan Strait. Countries from more than 20 countries around the world will travel around the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea to provoke China! In the past two weeks, the American destroyer in the South China Sea region almost only collided with the Chinese destroyer at a distance of 41 meters! This week, the first US military research ship has also been parked in Kaohsiung Port.
Mainland officials once said in the past year that if a US warship is moored at Kaohsiung Port, it will be the time for China to send troops to Taiwan! Although the US military research ship is moored in Kaohsiung Port this time, the mainland's response is very mild! They only said that this is only a military research ship or a warship, so there is no need to send troops. China continues to restrain itself, but the United States continues to make provocative actions. If there is a US warship parked in Kaohsiung Port in November this time, it is really unknown whether China will send troops. Now the United States and China are testing each other’s bottom line. The more they are brazen, the better we should be prepared as citizens. Because if you get rid of a gun, you will hear the bumps and bumps, and wake up in your sleep!
Also, as Iran will be fully sanctioned by the United States in January for oil exports, and Saudi Arabia’s killings caused by journalists, it’s a big uproar! Saudi Arabia may also reduce oil production so that oil prices will rise sharply, and there is a chance to rise to $100 to $200 a barrel! If this happens, there will be panic in the market, and gold will have a chance to rise, so everyone should pay attention to the price of gold to make appropriate deployment!
In addition, the most basic original according to the ratio of gold and silver is below 81! It is now 83.61! Very close! But don't stick to the rules! Not absolute! For reference only! If there is war! Gold will rise, remember to buy real gold!
US efforts to suppress China
The US Treasury report was seen as the last warning shot against China.
The U.S. Treasury Department has not listed China as a currency manipulator, but its harsh wording is different from previous reports. The U.S. Treasury Department used an entire chapter in its report on Wednesday to outline concerns about the U.S. trade surplus with China. The United States is "deeply disappointed" that China does not disclose information on interventions in the currency market. The next time I am so good! That is the last warning! In addition, Trump plans to withdraw from the "International Postal Union", because these years of China through this alliance, Chinese companies to transport small parcels to the United States, get shipping discounts, the United States withdraw from the alliance, meaning that Chinese consignors will lose this subsidy.
In 2017, US Post lost US$170 million to subsidize Chinese shippers, and a large number of fakes and dangerous drugs flowed from China to the United States. The cost of China's enterprises in this area will be greatly increased and the competitiveness will be reduced. This will cause more companies or companies of this type to close down.
in conclusion
Cash is king when the Fed will take away cheap money. In such a day, you'd better be able to demonstrate your ability and wisdom to retain cash! Instead of spending money to buy something useless and make a big flower. Now make savings and prepare for a big investment in the future. This is the strong performance of all the smart investors who have no property and no stock now! These savvy investors will have a good opportunity to make a big difference in the future.
It is right to remember that cash is king. Cash is king, not now, in the future, when all the assets fall to the garbage, your cash is the emperor, all the expensive items will become garbage, then your cash will come in handy, you can make a big difference. I bought more and more flat to smile. Therefore, cash is not the king, it is the future, you will find the power of holding a lot of cash! For example, if you sell Tencent for 450 yuan, you can buy it in the next 250 yuan, cool! If it falls to 40 yuan? You will be happy to sleep! Regardless of the boring and unwise nine-flow fund salesman, I have counted that most of the Chinese, American and Japanese stocks that Ming Dengying offered to everyone in June and August have fallen by about 30%! The channel itself is thankful! The canal often says that there is a plan b; but it turns out that his plan b is jumped into a second deeper cockroach! One fund has fallen more than 20% from January to now! The letter channel is one, and the misfortune is blind! Now in Hong Kong and around the world, I have actually made many visits in February and July! The European debt crisis will follow the fall of the emerging market economic system! Then there was the automatic wave explosion of the Nasdaq and the US economy. At that time, I was criticized by many fund salesmen who had interests. Unfortunately, the plot was with me. The script was accurately realized before you, without any mistakes. My stock market property market will be consumable, and the stock market is really experiencing a decline in the eight months. The property market is also beginning to fall. The HSI, which Lai Xiaoqiang said, will start from the "slow cow" in February. And did not happen.
Lai Xiaoqiang's words, but in fact it is a slow bear, picking up the level, laughing to stomach pain, death, too arrogant! I am calling cash is king, Ming Dengying is talking about tens of millions of dollars in cash and is qualified to say cash is king! Too embarrassing! Now that the HSI has reached 25,000, you have nothing to say, accept your life! Today Japan fell 542, Hong Kong fell 806! Xiaoying was killed on three sides! The main investment of the channel fund is Hong Kong and the United States. Today, the mini-funds have fallen by at least 2% or more! Investors in the channel must continue to frown! Go! I teach you! Clearance and then do the big bear with the body 沽 沽 ～ ～ curve. What are you talking about! Don't do it all, just like I am a fool!
I have been with my friend for eight months, and we have been happily playing for eight months. The investors who followed them will be miserable, and they will spend their days sullenly, and the more they count every day, the more they will lose. It is recommended that they clear the fund and then do the dollar regularly! Safety is at least 3.5% return! Of course, I am talking about Lai Xiaoqiang and Ming Dengying! My FB has been open for 6 months, and the followers have risen rapidly to more than 9,100 people. I am heart-to-heart, unprofitable, no conflict of interest, all truthful, and old-fashioned! My supporters and my brothers spent eight months happy together with their brothers. Everyone was relieved and carefree. Everyone used Chinese to clap their hands. ~曲缐
Supplementary conclusions.股票 Hand stock high-risk bonds and all funds, do dollars regularly. Maintaining strength, MPF switched to money market fund only.
Dr.Ng has over 30 years of bond investment experience and is a dentist before retiring at 40.
