Can an Opposition Alliance kick Lee Hsien Loong out of AMK GRC?

[Sideswipe]

Frankly speaking, my calculation was pretty close, 32% prior to the 2006 elections. It is not that "unpredicted" or "unexpected", so to speak. But of course, people tend to have a lower expectation especially so when PAP's side start to mock at our young team that they will win hands down and the PM will get at least 80%. So if you started with a low expectation but get a result higher than what you expected, naturally you will be happy.

And please, it is not a Wayang Team at all. Their contest is very strategic. Call it a block force or suicide force..whichever you like. But the truth is, the contest increase the number of voters involved in WP's contests.

Goh Meng Seng

I like to know did WP ( you are with WP then ) did any opinion polls before/during the GE or even the day before polling day and an internal estimations of the votes percentage WP can gather in those constituencies.

Was the GE results exactly what was reflected in the opinion polls or are there some surprises?

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

A large part of unhappiness over affordability of HDB flats is being negated by the near full completion of lift upgrading projects. I am sure you know that! And I can tell you with near certainty Mah has a guy running his precinct's office surfing forums.

I will not be surprised either.

It depends on how you look at it. Since all lifts are upgraded, they will no longer be held hostage!

It is not easy to be a politician that everybody will like you. There will always be trade off in policies; i.e. some will be very unhappy, some will be happy. But some ministers cannot balance it up properly, that's when the problems start.

Goh Meng Seng

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

I like to know did WP ( you are with WP then ) did any opinion polls before/during the GE or even the day before polling day and an internal estimations of the votes percentage WP can gather in those constituencies.

Was the GE results exactly what was reflected in the opinion polls or are there some surprises?

Official opinion polls? Nope. We couldn't afford that.

It is just my personal estimation using a very primitive statistical calculations. For example, prior to GE 2006, through my various walks and knocking doors, I could gather some data on the support level. The estimate I get is about 45%, plus minus 3%. Thus the estimation is pretty close. And somehow, in between different precincts, the feel is pretty accurate.

As for AMK GRC, it is based on past data. Somehow, although the overall estimate is quite close but in between different precincts, there are some surprises. Cheng San is one of such surprises. We lose some, we gain some in others.

But the fact is that prior to GE 2006, I feel that to get 30% is not a problem at all if past data is to be taken into considerations. So I was a little bit surprised when the PAP's side made that bold claim that the PM will get at least 80% of the votes. I thought they have done special opinion poll during that 9 nine days period to come up with such bold estimate. I was quietly confident that they were wrong in their assessment. Their assessment may be that as the PM GRC, the PM could possibly swing more than 20% of the votes from those absorbed weak wards like Cheng San and Yishun South.

Actually, in a sense, we taught the PAP a good lesson. Don't ever think that you could just keep on absorbing all those weak wards into a bigger and ever bigger GRCs. It will back fire and come back to haunt you....especially those so call "heavy weight" ministers. I believe, this lesson has an impact that make them shrink the size of GRCs this time round.

Goh Meng Seng

 

[littlefish]

Based on hindsight from the last election, my advice would be for the opposition to focus on a few key issues (e.g. FT, CPF, HDB, Ministers' pay, etc). They should expound on the flaws of the current policies and elaborate on how they intend to handle these issues. Releasing a manifesto is too much for the majority of the electorate to digest. Besides, any intelligent person would be cynical that everything in the manifesto can be delivered when PAP has been the sole party in power all these years.

The only reason I would vote for the opposition now is purely because of my deep-seated fear of a one-party state. I am sure there are many others who may not share the same fear as me. The key lies in capturing the swing vote and to do this, all the fire must be concentrated on the key issues close to the voters' hearts.

My opinion is that the opposition has to start gathering feedback early on how the key issues must be addressed. There is no point waiting until the election before announcing their strategy on the policies. Although this may give PAP the chance to address flaws in their policies, but the voters will remember that it was the opposition that provided the impetus for the policies to be changed. It is also extremely difficult for the PAP to deviate too much from their current policy positions as doing so will expose even more vulnerabilities. I am sure this is enough to capture sufficient swing votes from those who realise that their interests will be better protected by having a more diverse representation in Parliament.

 

[tanwahtiu]

We can dream... but realistically, it will not be easy.

You can bet that the MIW will do a lot of gerrymandering before the elections to protect Pinky's arse.

I found this at Tan Kin Lian's Blog which says it all :

"If you look at Goh Chok Tong's Marine Parade GRC map, it stretches from Braddell all the way to the east coast. And also the most funny shape.

And it has 6 MPs, just like LKY's GRC".

So, don't be surprise if you find Jurong West and Sembawang a part of Pinky's GRC, if it suits their purpose.

Whatever the PAPpies do, it will be Pinky's fate to see his percentage vote fall below 60 p/c in the next GE.

.. and maybe, just maybe, it will cause his Old Papa to have a fatal heart attack.

We can dream about it... can't we ??


http://tankinlian.blogspot.com/2009/11/gerrymandering-and-election.html

Most Singaporeans have a 'wait dream' and that is old fart to up lorry very soon and hopefully before next GE and election woud not be the same 'bully' and corrupt GE. GRC does no good to Singaporeans and how come they can't do anything about it?

 

[methink]

My Dream Team to take on PM's shit team:- Tan Kin Lian, James Gomes, Sylvia Lim, Chia Ti Lik and Mohd Jufrie. Lagi more powerful if the two opposition MPs are in too.

And with former PAP MPs such as Dr Tan Cheng Bok or ex-speaker Tan Soo Khoon also involved... then sure win one!

 

[halsey02]

Please expound on how "they will never let LHL lose the AMK ward" in lieu of the scenario I had proposed?

The WP "loong" & his team in their VIRGIN venture nearly tip the scales during the last election. The opposition should dissect this, study & plan...but "Mee Siam Mai Hum "...had already begun to , "FIX" the hole....:p

don't believe me?

I'm fixing a hole where the rain gets in
and stops my mind from wandering
where it will go
I'm filling the cracks that ran though the door
and kept my mind from wandering
where it will go

And it really doesn't matter if I'm wrong
I'm right where I belong
I'm right where I belong
See the people standing there
who disagree and never win
and wonder why they don't get in my door

I'm painting my room in a colorful way,
and when my mind is wandering
there I will go

And it really doesn't matter if I'm wrong
I'm right where I belong
I'm right where I belong
Silly people run around
they worry me and never ask me
why they don't get past my door

I'm taking my time for a number of things
that weren't important yesterday
and I still go

I'm fixing a hole where the rain gets in
and stops my mind from wandering
where it will go
where it will go
I'm fixing a hole where the rain gets in
and stops my mind from wandering
where it will go
( The Beatles, "I am FIXing a HOle")

"MEE SIAM MAI HUM"... is FIXing a HOle... look around!!

 

[halsey02]

My Dream Team to take on PM's shit team:- Tan Kin Lian, James Gomes, Sylvia Lim, Chia Ti Lik and Mohd Jufrie. Lagi more powerful if the two opposition MPs are in too.

And with former PAP MPs such as Dr Tan Cheng Bok or ex-speaker Tan Soo Khoon also involved... then sure win one!

TKL is toxic...can you trust a "Dalmation" who now dyed his dots white, and the background black?; was once a darling pampered cannis, who ate in GOLDen bowls at the foot of his MASTER's TABLE.

Haven't we learn or lesson in James Gomez???

Once again...are we going back to the same old road, of smoke & mirror???:p

 

[golden]

yishun south almost lost at once stage and was now under AMK GRC under the last two elections.

its a big joke for yishun south residents which see the division into yishun south, yishun central and yishun north.

why cant yishun south, central and north by itself or combine with sembawang form a team of 3 or 4 GRC seats?

 

[ossy77]

Generally speaking, the feelings on the ground has change tremendously these couple of years. I believe PAP has already felt it and thus causing LKY behaviour change drastically.

As of LKY personality and character, you think he would apologise to the public and admit his policy are wrong? He has taken the softer approach and quick to admit those policy that are not highly poisonous to the country. Do you think he will dare to admit that opening the flood gate to the FT and the ever increasing price of HDB flat is wrong? I don't think so, I believe this is also one of the tactics used by LKY to silence the public that he has admit his mistakes and don't tell him that everything he masterminded is wrong. In the art of war, the best way to defend is to attack first and the best way to attack is to defend. As a competent general, one must know when to defend and attack and tactics to defend and attack are to be kept to the utmost secrecy.

I believe 2nd half of 2009, LHL wanted to hold an election as the tell tale signs of elections are very obvious especially at the end of the first quarter of 2009. Rumours has been prevalent that RC members are activated on standby mode for GE. I believe this GE plan has been halted by LKY as he has see our neighbour counterparts has faired badly in the GE. I believe the second part of 2009, they must be busy coming up with strategic plans to counter the opposition possible slogans for the upcoming GE.

For the next GE, the best for the opposition is to form 2 relative weak group and attack the head and tail of this serpent and while they attacked fiercely at the belly to achieve some solid results. The opposition need to sit together and discuss on where is the weakest link minister for the PAP and attacked profusely starting from now.

My 2 cent worths of comments for the above.

 

[Brightkid]

Nice dream to stop the Lee family from holding on to power.

Even if LHL lost the election, almost immediately, a single-ward elected MP either 'dies' or 'step down due to family/health reason', a by-election will be called and LHL gets elected as MP and his team voted him back into PM-ship.......all back to square one.

The only difference then will be he is gg to revenge on every freaking voters that went against him to cause him to loose face. Not possible ? Just look at MBT, the As student that lost to CST. He is now having his revenge by squeezing every resident of their retiurement funds as all need a roof over their head.

Only way is prevent/minimise this backdoor entry is PAPa lost a substantial number of seats to have real check and balance in parliment.

 

[commoner]

if LHL lost, LKY pace maker will give up or burst into flames and goes kaput,,,, when LKY becomes cold, LHL is out of PAP and running road with wife,,,,, which MP will now give up the seat to the puppet clown?

 

[jacobsgoh]

A little bird whispered in my ear that we could end the Lee's hold on Singapore's political hegemony by kicking out the PM in his own GRC.

All it takes is the willingness of all opposition parties to co-operate on just one mission. One to make history that will cause the greatest upheaval in the Singapore political landscape.

Is it really mission impossible? Let's consider the components that will give consideration to it not being a pipe dream.

We have the certainty of a historical 33% opposition vote.

A well known and respected woman candidate with an agenda to further the Singaporean women's voice in Parliament to the fore will generate at least another 10% from the female voters.

That gives a 43% share of the votes!

You want to tell me the other four male candidates can't generate another 8% of votes from the rest of the constituents to make it a 51% winning margin?

Tell me I am daydreaming or smoking stuff that I should not!

Your idea is very good on paper.

The joint opposition parties should promise voters BIGGER bribes [in any guise] when they are voted into office; proven success by pap.
lky's son's govt is clean, leeaporeans are corrupted.

 

[FuckSamLeong]

Nice dream to stop the Lee family from holding on to power.

Even if LHL lost the election, almost immediately, a single-ward elected MP either 'dies' or 'step down due to family/health reason', a by-election will be called and LHL gets elected as MP and his team voted him back into PM-ship.......all back to square one.

The only difference then will be he is gg to revenge on every freaking voters that went against him to cause him to loose face. Not possible ? Just look at MBT, the As student that lost to CST. He is now having his revenge by squeezing every resident of their retiurement funds as all need a roof over their head.

Only way is prevent/minimise this backdoor entry is PAPa lost a substantial number of seats to have real check and balance in parliment.

A Hakka can be thick skinned enough to do that! But a thin skinned one will be so devastated that his lymphoma will return!

As for punishing all for the Potong Pasir humiliation, you should be sited in a precinct which constantly gives less than an ego satisfy return of votes to see what is meted out!

 

[Char_Azn]

I think it's highly unlikely that any opposition alliance will be able topple LHL from his ward short of a freak result. A really strong team consisting of LKH, Sylvia Lim, Chiam, etc(as long as there isn't a CSJ to spoil their image) might have a chance but if U ask me, its putting all their eggs into the same basket. Too risky. If they lose, it will be hard for the others to retain their current seats. If they really want to gamble, better to try some wards held by nincompoops like Mah Bow Tan or WKS.

 

[i_am_belle]

northern part of s'pore have access to circle line via bishan ... this time around the electorate there may be a happier one than previous years ... public transport is worst in western s'pore ... but western s'pore got lots of 'new citizens' who are diehard Loong supporters ...

 

[Char_Azn]

northern part of s'pore have access to circle line via bishan ... this time around the electorate there may be a happier one than previous years ... public transport is worst in western s'pore ... but western s'pore got lots of 'new citizens' who are diehard Loong supporters ...

Below is just my observation BTW

Where in the world did U managed to get that information from. As far as I know. virtually all the PRs from my office are either living in NE or in Woodlands. I'd expect more new citizen to be from those area.

On top of that FTs are more used to an environment with lots of opposition in parliament, I'd expect new citizens to be more open to the opposition here then locals. Those from 1 party dictator countries like China, Myanmar or Vietnam would probably not want to see 1 party holding onto power, those from countries like TW/HK/Western Nations would probably love to see more opposition in parliament. Its hard to see why they will be diehard to PAP. Probably the Malaysian would be since the political system here is very similar to theirs except that we have no pro-bumi policy

 

[scroobal]

Excellent point. Swing voters by their very name will move quickly in one direction. Cheng San and Eunos proved that. Go for the weakest link, usually someone that has a low profile and will not resonate with the swing voters.

If he is a PM or some high profile, well like ministers like Khaw BW, then you may have the Swing Voters voting against you.

 

[methink]

I think it's highly unlikely that any opposition alliance will be able topple LHL from his ward short of a freak result. A really strong team consisting of LKH, Sylvia Lim, Chiam, etc(as long as there isn't a CSJ to spoil their image) might have a chance but if U ask me, its putting all their eggs into the same basket. Too risky. If they lose, it will be hard for the others to retain their current seats. If they really want to gamble, better to try some wards held by nincompoops like Mah Bow Tan or WKS.

Well it is all or nothing. Why have half-past-six MPs to represent us but wont open their mouth to speak up on issues that matter?

I rather a vocal one like Dr Chee or not al all! The present Opposition MPs have spoiled the good name of JBJ and opposition politics. LKY is very happy with such mediocrity perfomers in his parleement.

 

[Sideswipe]

Well it is all or nothing. Why have half-past-six MPs to represent us but wont open their mouth to speak up on issues that matter?

I rather a vocal one like Dr Chee or not al all! The present Opposition MPs have spoiled the good name of JBJ and opposition politics. LKY is very happy with such mediocrity perfomers in his parleement.

Dr Chee and SDP can get just over 20% of votes ( recent GE ). The 20% is the opposition "iron votes". That mean hardly any or very low percentage of middle ground voters gave their votes to SDP.
SDP can't win elections.

Their SMC might be small, They might be "useless" in Parliament, but LTK and CST won successive elections for 20+ years.

SDP have to ask themselves, why have their average votes per constituency last GE stay at 22% while SDA got 33% and WP got 35%.