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Australia Property Prices Crashing, Dollar Sinks, Economy near Recession

londoncabby

Alfrescian
Loyal
http://bigpondnews.com/articles/Finance/2011/09/21/Property_price_falls_in_WA_664000.html

Property price falls in WA


Double-digit property price falls in Perth and regional Western Australia could be related to an expanded fly-in, fly-out mining workforce, with some areas recording declines of as much as 40 per cent.

Vendors are already weathering a difficult spring selling season following steep annual falls in inner Perth, Mandurah, south of Perth, and the Margaret River holiday region.

A glut of new apartments and heavy discounting of prestige houses has been accompanied by sharp price falls for properties in desirable coastal areas.

Real Estate Institute of Western Australia (REIWA) figures show residential property prices fell between 11 and 15 per cent in the inner-city suburbs of East Perth, West Perth and Northbridge in the year to June 30.

House prices in Perth's most exclusive suburb, Peppermint Grove, fell 20 per cent, and properties at picturesque Gracetown, near Margaret River, fell a staggering 40 per cent over the same period.

Prices in one Mandurah suburb fell by 28 per cent, the figures show.

Westpac senior economist Matthew Hassan said the high prices achieved during the first mining boom in WA had priced many people out of the market.

'Since then, Perth's really struggled to gain any traction in terms of price performance,' Mr Hassan said.

'I suspect there also may be an element of the mining boom having less flow-on impact in local economies ... as businesses investing in those areas bypass local areas with fly-in, fly-out labour forces from other states.'

He said the mining boom 'mark two' was quite a different beast to the first one.

'The positive spillages to the non-mining sectors are not as large and are not offsetting the negatives from a high Aussie dollar and relatively high interest rates,' he said.

'It's a much more complicated mix.'

Mr Hassan said a common theme of slowing property prices was elevated interest rates.

'That's the dominant force for the market,' he said.

He added that early signs for the spring selling season were not good.

'We're going to have a bumpy second half to this year, even with rates on hold we're likely to see more negatives coming through for housing.'

'Near term, it's looking quite shaky.'

An expected interest interest rate cut would be key to stabilising house prices.

Property researcher group SQM Research said stock levels were quite elevated and the prestige property markets in inner Perth and Mandurah were the hardest hit.

'We've already had double-digit falls for Mandurah,' SQM's Louis Christopher said.

Inner Perth was down seven to nine per cent from its peak, while Mandurah was down by between 10 and 12 per cent.

Mr Christopher said he expected stock levels around the country to increase in spring, putting further downwards pressure on prices.

Australian property Monitors (APM) analyst Andrew Wilson said there were no clear signs that the inner Perth market and Mandurah had reached the bottom.

'Those particular areas are more inclined to reflect forced sales scenarios,' he said.
 

Ash007

Alfrescian
Loyal
http://www.smh.com.au/business/house-prices-extend-slide-nab-20110928-1kwck.html

House prices extend slide: NAB
September 28, 2011 - 11:47AM
House prices fell for a second consecutive quarter and are expected to continue to decline as housing affordability becomes more of a factor for buyers.

The National Australia Bank Property Index fell 14 points in the September quarter, following a 5-point fall in the June quarter.

Respondents to the survey said access to credit was identified as the biggest impediment to buying a property.

Advertisement: Story continues below
NAB chief economist Alan Oster said housing affordability replaced rising interest rates as the next biggest constraint on new property developments in the September quarter.

"Our survey also shows that only 20 per cent of respondents now expect interest rates to be higher over the next 12 months, compared with 71 per cent in our June survey.

"NSW was the most pessimistic state with regard to interest rates, possibly reflecting the fact that the average home loan size in NSW is also the largest among the states."

Mr Oster said demand for existing housing weakened nationwide in the September quarter.

"Inner city houses remain the only property type where demand is considered to be good, but only marginally," he said.

"The most notable deterioration in demand was identified in middle-/outer- ring high-rise properties."

Mr Oster said he thought Australians were overly pessimistic about the housing market.

"A structural shortage of housing remains nationally, commencements are down, interest rates are expected to stay on hold for some time and the unemployment rate is low, contributing to high job security," he said.

"These factors are expected to maintain a floor under house price growth, which we see resuming at below four per cent in 2012 after drifting down in 2011."

The NAB survey said house rents increased 0.l7 per cent in the September quarter, down from the 1.3 rise in the June quarter.

AAP



Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/house-prices-extend-slide-nab-20110928-1kwck.html#ixzz1ZD6GRza2
 

neddy

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset

What I think.

The OZ economy is in recession if not for mining. I am holding on to a report that tells me exactly what is going on.

This is the type of report that the pollies, esp PM JuLIAR, will not dare to show to Aussies.
All Aussie PMs from Bob Hawke to KRudd are international marketers, but Julia stays at home to conduct petty wars with stay-at-home Abbott. This is back to the Whitlam govt days!!

So, you have WA Premier Colin Barnett visiting overseas to win deals for Australia. Thank him.

Meanwhile, KRudd fly all over the world to campaign for his own UN Security Council seat and in the process, avoid the pain of been backstabbed by PM JuLIAR.

The Liberal at least have some REAL ideas about what to do when mining is down - Eg agriculture to feed the world. (At least it is a COSTED idea)

The ALP-Greens government is thinking of increasing GST and introducing Carbon Tax. This is typical left-wing extremist idealogy. There is easy money to be made when ALP is in government. :biggrin: They do not know how to do COSTING.

When private developer build house: TOTAL COST = Cost of house + 10% Professional fees
When ALP build house: TOTAL COST = Cost of house + 15% Professional fees + 15% Union kickbacks! What do union do with free money?

The figure above is for illustration. Just visit the former Deputy PM & Education Minister: JuLIAR pet BER Project Costing report for the real figures!

It is not a coincidence that WA, VIC and NSW are run by Lib now.

Australia is a rich country, but still, this is not the way to spend money. I know who I will be voting for the next time.

Meanwhile, thousands of protestors will be in Perth next month for the CHOGM Rally. The Police has already approve the Protest Rally.

"While the predictables are being played out, I will be playing golf in Margaret River and looking at some cheap land with coal deposits underneath - which I can sell to China later. If China don't want, I sell to India to build wind turbines generators. :biggrin:
No point holding cash when the Europeans and Americans are trying to create hyperinflation."
 
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Ash007

Alfrescian
Loyal
Indeed, strangely you still get reports on how much prices of houses will continue to rise. Sometimes contradictory reports on the same day.

http://smh.domain.com.au/real-estate-news/the-west-was-best-20110924-1kq8p.html

The west was best
Isobel King
September 24, 2011
Comments 28

No regrets ... Samantha Hayden outside her Summer Hill home.
This year's star performers have one thing in common. The inner west is holding its ground far better than most other areas around Sydney.

The past few months have undoubtedly affected consumer confidence but agents across Sydney report that well-priced properties in sought-after locations continue to hold their own. And let's not forget, any generic review of the past year's market performance masks individual pockets that seem almost bulletproof.

Inner west
Most other regions tracked backwards but the inner west showed average growth of 0.4 per cent for houses in the past year. Its relative affordability compared with the eastern suburbs and lower north shore are behind its continuing growth. Strathfield South, Summer Hill, Forest Lodge and Burwood led the charge.

Advertisement: Story continues below
Star performers of the west.
Virginia Nicoll, of Harris Tripp First National, sells property in Ashfield, Summer Hill and Dulwich Hill, all regional top performers. Buyers there tend to be a mix of those upgrading in the area or professionals migrating from the eastern suburbs, she says.

''Prices have come off a bit,'' she says, but ''vendors know they have to be realistic and they've all done a correction on price''.

When the light rail eventually extends into Dulwich Hill, already impressive infrastructure will get a welcome boost. St Peters, Tempe and Erskineville all came in at about 9 per cent growth, showing the knock-on effect of nearby Newtown's enduring appeal, while offering more-approachable prices.

West
The lure of affordable housing on good-sized blocks of land, well serviced by amenities, keeps the west in hot demand.

An overall decline of 0.7 per cent region-wide belies excellent growth in many suburbs.

Pemulwuy, Merrylands West and Claremont Meadows all rose by about 13.5 per cent. The relatively new suburb of Newington, near Sydney Olympic Park, posted a staggering 20.5 per cent growth.

Local agent David Mahony, of Green Park Realty, believes about four record sales about the $1 million mark during the past year have bumped up the average.

Prices have tapered off since about March, he says, having climbed steadily until then. The suburb was only established in 1999, with the median house price now $788,000.

City and east
The top end of the market has taken a battering, with prices slashed on many multimillion-dollar waterfront houses. That might account for the 8.1 per cent decline recorded for the city/east, with double-digit falls in prestige suburbs such as Vaucluse, Rose Bay and Bellevue Hill dragging down the average.

Beachside Bondi , on the other hand, posted 9.2 per cent growth, with a median house price of about $1.5 million.

Many buyers have elected to forgo the water views for the bigger blocks of Rosebery and Mascot, where the house price median is considerably less than $1 million.

Both suburbs grew by about 10 per cent last year. Paddington, sometimes considered the barometer of the Sydney market, dropped 6.6 per cent, while Surry Hills rose 2.2 per cent.

North shore
The lower north has fared poorly overall (minus 2.2 per cent), with Belle Property's Tim Foote acknowledging ''some adjustment in the top-end prices''.

Neutral Bay squeezed into the top performers, at 16.7 per cent growth, with its harbourside location, proximity to North Sydney, good mix of housing and new restaurant/bar precinct all working in its favour.

Hunters Hill and Gladesville, with about 10 per cent growth, also defied the odds.

Asquith, in the upper north, recorded 13 per cent growth, surprising local agent Greg Williams, who says ''prices held up really well during the GFC but we're not seeing a bubble now''.

With three-bedroom houses in this leafy suburb asking between $580,000 and $640,000, now seems a good time to buy.

Dundas, with a median of $605,000, is also attractive, showing 16.8 per cent growth.

North Rocks, in the Hills district, recorded 11.2 per cent growth.

South/south-west
The south/south-west corridor joins the inner west as the most resilient performer.

Canterbury-Bankstown, which we've included here, leads the way with 5.5 per cent overall capital growth. Hurlstone Park, Canterbury, Regents Park, Bass Hill, Roselands and Condell Park all recorded more than 12 per cent growth.

Still reasonably close to the city and well serviced by direct trains, yet far more affordable, the area's appeal is unlikely to wane.

For similar reasons, Kogarah and Beverly Hills, in the south, are performing solidly. And Sydneysiders' love affair with water has secured strong growth for suburbs such as Connells Point and Oyster Bay, on the Georges River.

''We've seen the market surge in recent weeks, with 90 per cent auction clearance rates since August,'' says Sasha Tasic, of McGrath Estate Agents Hurstville.

Connells Point has a median house price of $1.35 million - a little shy of the $1.5 million you'll need for a waterfront property.

Village vibe the key
Samantha Hayden bought her three-bedroom semi in Summer Hill last November after a short search.

''The house was well maintained and had a garden and off-street parking, which was essential, and nice architectural features,'' she says.

Newly separated, she needed somewhere that could comfortably accommodate her and her two young children.

Three-bedroom semis were hard to come by, she says. ''I only wanted to pay around $910,000 tops but … I put in an offer of $920,000 pre-auction and they wouldn't budge, so I ended up paying $940,000,'' she says.

Despite this, she has no regrets: ''I love the village atmosphere.''

With APM recording 17.4 per cent growth for the suburb last year, it's clearly a sound investment.
 

neddy

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Indeed, strangely you still get reports on how much prices of houses will continue to rise. Sometimes contradictory reports on the same day.

http://smh.domain.com.au/real-estate-news/the-west-was-best-20110924-1kq8p.html

What I think.
Cut out the news and refer to it again 1 or 2 quarters or even the next year. You may get a good laugh.

As far as I know, property agents are desperate. It is easy for the real estate industry to do press release of "good news", the mass media just report.
Look at the original sales figures.
 

Aussie Prick

Alfrescian
Loyal
Well we are seeing a drop in Australian Property Prices - Perth is -6.3% YTD. Seeing alot of predicting once rates decrease, prices will rise etc. Alot of hope but surprisingly I am seeing some dysfunctional political forces at play in Canberra - its reminding me of the Democrats vs the Republicans arguing resulting in a S&P downgrade. What has happened to Australian politics?

As with the high frequency trade dominating the market today, the news is that the Western Word is broke - in the USA's case the household debt has destroyed that country's consumerist economy and they are now in a painful debt deflationary environment. The crisis in the USA is a mortgage crisis. Its not so much that the West does not "make stuff anymore" the problem is the credit cycle, living beyond your means, eventually the bubble bursts. Every year Americans are writing off and paying down debt. 44 Trillion in Household debt will do it, plus two wars and very low taxes nails the lid.

In Europe the bubble is bursting. Their problem is the same except they have sovereign debt that is unsustainable. Merkel and Sarkosy are protecting their political legacies - they should just let Greece default, and exit the Euro instead of throwing money at a lost cause. Spending 2 trillion only to have an eventual default does not make any sense, except to protect bondholders and to continue the high frequency trade of today.
Europe is a retirement community in debt. Alot of debt they will never be able to repay.....

Which now brings us to China. China is now in official danger. The whole world is shorting China now, and the news is not good unfortunately for Singapore and Australia and Asia-Pac. China is more than halfway through its credit cycle and the frightening thing is the massive stimulus in 2008 has kept them and world economy humming along but now the excess capacity looks like it cant be controlled after such massive stimulus. We also fear the banks are hiding huge losses at the local level. We are still hopeful China can continue to grow at 9% this year and next but their property bubble is keeping fund managers up at night. Slowing manufacturing thanks to US and Europe will speed up the property bubble. Empty apartment buildings, empty shopping malls built with Australian resources........

A popping of the China property bubble will kill Singapore, Hong Hong, Asia-Pac and cause chaos in Australia.

Its little wonder the US$ gained so much recently.
 

Ash007

Alfrescian
Loyal
Lol, already having a good laugh with my colleague the other day when I mentioned one of my friend brought a 1.3mil property in a far flung place and considered it cheap. They asked me how much I'm going to spend on a property and I quoted just 300K, they stopped talking after that and looked at me funny.

What I think.
Cut out the news and refer to it again 1 or 2 quarters or even the next year. You may get a good laugh.

As far as I know, property agents are desperate. It is easy for the real estate industry to do press release of "good news", the mass media just report.
Look at the original sales figures.
 

neddy

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Lol, already having a good laugh with my colleague the other day when I mentioned one of my friend brought a 1.3mil property in a far flung place and considered it cheap. They asked me how much I'm going to spend on a property and I quoted just 300K, they stopped talking after that and looked at me funny.

mate, you are funny but nothing is impossible. Instead, your friend will see the seriousness of repaying 1.3mil.
What I am seeing is how much more, the expensive property prices are falling, compare to the cheapies.

What can you get with $300k in your city, Sydney? I imagine that it will be a 1 bedroom apartment. If it is close to the CBD, shops and transport. I can live with that!

I wonder how is this property like:
3/1 Frogmore Street, Mascot, NSW 2020
20110926140414.jpg


As a first homebuyer, liveable. The main point is to upgrade at the first opportunity.
North facing.
20110926174656.gif


20110926174656.jpg


Hey, where is the balcony?

These look like those which were bought at $70k and rented out to overseas students before cheap money kill everything. Alas!
 
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Ash007

Alfrescian
Loyal
Lol, yah, they were talking how the property is 1.8mil on the street and they were "lucky" to get it. Later they asked how much I'm willing to pay for my property.

Realistic speaking, 400-500K now for a 1 bedroom apartment in CBD, expensive area like Rhodes. 2 bedroom, 100sqm is already 630K. These are old apartments should be able to get a 2-3 bedroom for around 400-500K as well.

mate, you are funny but nothing is impossible. Instead, your friend will see the seriousness of repaying 1.3mil.
What I am seeing is how much more, the expensive property prices are falling.

What can you get with $300k in your city, Sydney? I imagine that it will be a 1 bedroom apartment. If it is close to the CBD, shops and transport. I can live with that!

I wonder how is this property like:
3/1 Frogmore Street, Mascot, NSW 2020
20110926140414.jpg
 

neddy

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Lol, yah, they were talking how the property is 1.8mil on the street and they were "lucky" to get it. Later they asked how much I'm willing to pay for my property.

Realistic speaking, 400-500K now for a 1 bedroom apartment in CBD, expensive area like Rhodes. 2 bedroom, 100sqm is already 630K. These are old apartments should be able to get a 2-3 bedroom for around 400-500K as well.

1.8 to 1.3mil does not sound good already. price dropped too much, something is wrong there. There is no gain no fun if you need to commute long distance to work.

I hope you do not mean those old apartments with small bedrooms, poor vent kitchen and dimly lit streets? :eek:
 
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Ash007

Alfrescian
Loyal
Yah, something like the picture you showed. I'm waiting as long as possible. Even my wife supported me and said we should wait. Don't want to be in debt for that long.

1.8 to 1.3mil does not sound good already. price dropped too much, something is wrong there. There is no gain no fun if you need to commute long distance to work.

I hope you do not mean those old apartments with small bedrooms, poor vent kitchen and dimly lit streets? :eek:
 

AhSo1

Alfrescian
Loyal
Well we are seeing a drop in Australian Property Prices - Perth is -6.3% YTD. Seeing alot of predicting once rates decrease, prices will rise etc. Alot of hope but surprisingly I am seeing some dysfunctional political forces at play in Canberra - its reminding me of the Democrats vs the Republicans arguing resulting in a S&P downgrade. What has happened to Australian politics?

As with the high frequency trade dominating the market today, the news is that the Western Word is broke - in the USA's case the household debt has destroyed that country's consumerist economy and they are now in a painful debt deflationary environment. The crisis in the USA is a mortgage crisis. Its not so much that the West does not "make stuff anymore" the problem is the credit cycle, living beyond your means, eventually the bubble bursts. Every year Americans are writing off and paying down debt. 44 Trillion in Household debt will do it, plus two wars and very low taxes nails the lid.

In Europe the bubble is bursting. Their problem is the same except they have sovereign debt that is unsustainable. Merkel and Sarkosy are protecting their political legacies - they should just let Greece default, and exit the Euro instead of throwing money at a lost cause. Spending 2 trillion only to have an eventual default does not make any sense, except to protect bondholders and to continue the high frequency trade of today.
Europe is a retirement community in debt. Alot of debt they will never be able to repay.....

Which now brings us to China. China is now in official danger. The whole world is shorting China now, and the news is not good unfortunately for Singapore and Australia and Asia-Pac. China is more than halfway through its credit cycle and the frightening thing is the massive stimulus in 2008 has kept them and world economy humming along but now the excess capacity looks like it cant be controlled after such massive stimulus. We also fear the banks are hiding huge losses at the local level. We are still hopeful China can continue to grow at 9% this year and next but their property bubble is keeping fund managers up at night. Slowing manufacturing thanks to US and Europe will speed up the property bubble. Empty apartment buildings, empty shopping malls built with Australian resources........

A popping of the China property bubble will kill Singapore, Hong Hong, Asia-Pac and cause chaos in Australia.

Its little wonder the US$ gained so much recently.

Methinks the China story is misunderstood. The govt is tightening to slow the economy down. Whither the plan succeeds the; result is more FAI into the Chinese economy for addl breakneck growth. The govt is mindful of social unrest lest the growth falls.
 

Ash007

Alfrescian
Loyal
More bad news this morning. Waiting for the "house prices will rise" article in the afternoon.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/what-boom-defaults-rise-in-twospeed-economy-20110928-1kxeb.html
What boom? Defaults rise in two-speed economy
Ben Butler
September 29, 2011

Falling behind ... NSW is the worst-performing state when it comes to defaults on mortgage payments, especially around Sydney. Photo: Tamara Voninski
MORE Australians are falling behind on their home loans, despite the mining boom, according to a report released yesterday by the ratings agency Moody's.

The 6168 postcode taking in Rockingham, 30 kilometres south of Perth, has the highest delinquency rate in the country with 5.31 per cent of mortgages more than 30 days overdue - more than three times the national average of 1.67 per cent.

But NSW retained its title as worst performing state, with six of its 21 regions, concentrated on Sydney, turning in very poor performances.

Advertisement: Story continues below
A Moody's senior analyst, Arthur Karabatsos, said the two biggest declines in mortgage performance were in mining boom states Western Australia and Queensland.

''What I'm saying is, if you're in mining, you're sweet, if you're not, you're screwed,'' he said.

''What is happening is that not everyone is employed by the mines. Not every labourer is getting $100,000 a year, which you are if you're in the mines.

''There is definitely a two-speed economy going on and this just bears it out.''

He said national delinquencies were at a 10-year high. ''There was a bit of a spike in '08. It came down and we're now above that spike.''

Moody's said mining accounted for 2.4 per cent of employment in Queensland and 7.1 per cent in WA.

The tourism-dependent Gold Coast region had Australia's third-worst performance, with 3.11 per cent delinquencies, and also contributed the most delinquent loans in Australia - 6.9 per cent of the total.

''These regions are heavily tourism based,'' Mr Karabatsos said.

He said the high Australian dollar was putting off international tourists and encouraging Australians to go overseas for holidays. ''They're doing the Hawaii-Vegas trip and going shopping there,'' he said.

Mr Karabatsos said Sydney, the nation's worst-performing mortgage market, was ''surrounded by a ring of fire'' - suburbs where a high proportion of householders had fallen behind on their mortgages.

He said three interest rate rises since March last year and rising costs of living were the main causes of Sydney's mortgage stress.

The city has Australia's most expensive real estate, with a median home price of $562,000.

''Sydney is an expensive place to live,'' Mr Karabatsos said.

While Melbourne's performance has deteriorated along with the rest of the country, Moody's said it was performing ''relatively well''.

The statistics are based an analysis of the 10 per cent of Australian mortgages that have been securitised into portfolios rated by Moody's.



Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/what...eed-economy-20110928-1kxeb.html#ixzz1ZIKMmoI3
 

Aussie Prick

Alfrescian
Loyal
Methinks the China story is misunderstood. The govt is tightening to slow the economy down. Whither the plan succeeds the; result is more FAI into the Chinese economy for addl breakneck growth. The govt is mindful of social unrest lest the growth falls.

Well I hope you are correct. Fear is spreading. US is tapped out, the EU might break up or lose some members over the years and now we have China with its problems. The world needs a growth engine and there are serious red flags in China.

China does not have any room to add more fixed investment because of inflation - it will remain high and any additional stimulus will just pick inflation back up. 6% inflation with 9% growth this year. Lowering inflation and growth just brings the danger of stagflation forward - which might explain why all the smart money in the markets is betting heavily on declines in China. We see many analysts predicting more fixed investment but it wont work because of inflation and the fact that such stimulus produces less output now then it did the first time around. The more they stimulate the less effective it becomes.

I wish it were not true. Its very very bad news for Singapore, HK, etc. But we are sometimes blind to the good times. Never in the middle of a boom in the US, Spain, Ireland, Canada did you hear the danger of a bubble - until i bursts and there is a hangover. Asia still remembers the credit burst of the 1997 Currency Crisis and the loss of jobs, crash of property prices, etc.

But now we are once again blind to the excess of China's growth. When the 4 state banks report record profits, the markets tank because they know there are many off balance sheet bad loans coming. Besides empty buildings and cities, the property bubble will burst. I notice the Chinese put money into property due to cultural reasons which is making the bubble bigger than it was in the US or Europe. Its a ponzi scheme there with land sales at the local level paying for the loans to the state banks which push up prices, so everyone has an incentive to keep pushing prices higher until they crash.

I wish the growth was not so lopsided but when the Chinese Premier states this is the case and you see nothing but red flags its no wonder there is so much fear. Gold alone wont be able to save us this time when the bubble bursts in China, HK, Singapore, and even Australia.

So here is to the next 2 years. China will grow another 9% this year and next, until the new Party is sworn in, then the property crisis will escalate there and explode in 2013-2014.
 
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AhSo1

Alfrescian
Loyal
Well I hope you are correct. Fear is spreading. US is tapped out, the EU might break up or lose some members over the years and now we have China with its problems. The world needs a growth engine and there are serious red flags in China.

China does not have any room to add more fixed investment because of inflation - it will remain high and any additional stimulus will just pick inflation back up. 6% inflation with 9% growth this year. Lowering inflation and growth just brings the danger of stagflation forward - which might explain why all the smart money in the markets is betting heavily on declines in China. We see many analysts predicting more fixed investment but it wont work because of inflation and the fact that such stimulus produces less output now then it did the first time around. The more they stimulate the less effective it becomes.

I wish it were not true. Its very very bad news for Singapore, HK, etc. But we are sometimes blind to the good times. Never in the middle of a boom in the US, Spain, Ireland, Canada did you hear the danger of a bubble - until i bursts and there is a hangover. Asia still remembers the credit burst of the 1997 Currency Crisis and the loss of jobs, crash of property prices, etc.

But now we are once again blind to the excess of China's growth. When the 4 state banks report record profits, the markets tank because they know there are many off balance sheet bad loans coming. Besides empty buildings and cities, the property bubble will burst. I notice the Chinese put money into property due to cultural reasons which is making the bubble bigger than it was in the US or Europe. Its a ponzi scheme there with land sales at the local level paying for the loans to the state banks which push up prices, so everyone has an incentive to keep pushing prices higher until they crash.

I wish the growth was not so lopsided but when the Chinese Premier states this is the case and you see nothing but red flags its no wonder there is so much fear. Gold alone wont be able to save us this time when the bubble bursts in China, HK, Singapore, and even Australia.

So here is to the next 2 years. China will grow another 9% this year and next, until the new Party is sworn in, then the property crisis will escalate there and explode in 2013-2014.

Utterly bearish outlook. China surpassing Japan to be #2 is endemic of its growth, not its inherent instability. China had its problems, agreeably lopsided in its development but a bursting of the property market would be dependent on oversupply and too much credit vis a vis the Western model. In China there is much less leverage, down-payments are higher; any falls in values are likely to be representive of normal market correction.

It is true the fixed investment will be less this time but if the American can institute a QE2 then so shall the Chinese. Inflation is a constraint so agreeably the amount will be capped smaller at several hundred billion.

It is true there is fear of China's collapse, but the govt there can control the situation when the market corrects. A correction is desirable in the near term but the govt will step in, this view is somewhat bullish.

However we can all agree Western thinking in China is not realistic.
 

londoncabby

Alfrescian
Loyal
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/br...lian-real-estate/story-e6frf7jx-1226134184169

Tsunami to hit Australian real estate

September 11, 2011 4:21PM

AUSTRALIA'S love affair with property is about to turn sour as an "economic tsunami'' looks set to hit world markets, American economic forecaster Harry Dent says.

Mr Dent, who arrived in Australia today, predicts the world will experience a second, deeper downturn, which will arrive between the beginning and the middle of next year.
Starting in Europe, the downturn will spread to the US, China and eventually Australia, he said.

At the centre of the coming debt crisis is real estate, the forecaster says.

"People in places like Sydney or Tokyo or Miami say, 'Hey, real estate can never go down here, we're a great place, everyone wants to move here, there's not much land for development', and what I say is that is exactly the kind of place that bubbles,'' Mr Dent said.

"Outside Hong Kong and Shanghai, Australia is the most expensive real estate market in the world compared to income.''

Mr Dent said Australia's house prices would return to late 1990s or early 2000 levels.

Driving all these changes is simple demographics, specifically the peak of the baby boomers' spending, Mr Dent said.

"We predicted this (current) downturn in the US 20 years ago,'' he said.

"We said that in 2007 the peak number of baby boomers will reach their peak spending. They would have bought all their homes and then they will start saving for retirement ... and that you are going to see this downturn.''

The drop-off in spending will affect everyone, even mighty China, Mr Dent said.

To survive the incoming "economic tsunami'', Mr Dent said investors should sell their excess real estate and buy up assets in US dollars.

"Gold and silver are going to crash, they're a bubble,'' he said.

"Once we write down all these crazy debts, we are going to destroy a lot of dollars that were created in the boom and that makes the (US) dollar a lot more valuable.''

Mr Dent is in Australia to promote his book, The Great Crash Ahead - How to Prosper in the Debt Crisis of 2010-2012, and will be speaking at the Secure the Future conference in Sydney and Brisbane in October.
 

Aussie Prick

Alfrescian
Loyal
<<<<< http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/bre...-1226134184169

Tsunami to hit Australian real estate

AUSTRALIA'S love affair with property is about to turn sour as an "economic tsunami'' looks set to hit world markets, American economic forecaster Harry Dent says. "Outside Hong Kong and Shanghai, Australia is the most expensive real estate market in the world compared to income.''Mr Dent said Australia's house prices would return to late 1990s or early 2000 levels>>>>>>>>>>

My god! So if in YR1999/2000 avg prices were 200K+ then the avg price would fall from 500K today to 200K?

That is quite a fall!

I wonder if Singapore is in as much danger as Australia
 
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neddy

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
More bad news this morning. Waiting for the "house prices will rise" article in the afternoon.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/what-boom-defaults-rise-in-twospeed-economy-20110928-1kxeb.html

I have the latest YTD property figures for the capital cities. Sydney, Darwin + Canberra are still up.

Sydney + 5.0 .... desirable market segment $400-800k properties
Melb -2
Bris -1.6 ..... post-flood trama
Adel -1.8
Perth -2 .... perth is suffering from dutch disease and is finished!
7.1% down seasonally adjusted. even the agents are looking for mining work!
Darwin +1.8
Canberra +2.8
 
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