1h ·
The Romance of the Four Powers Part IIIc- The Romance between US and China.
Since I have started this series of write up, there are a lot of developments in the dynamics in the global situations. However the general strategic perspectives from both sides have not changed.
Trump has recognized China as US major contestor for global power and influence since 2018. He has tried to contain China by imposing all sorts of sanctions. However, he was not ready to go on a full blown conflict.
In fact, Trump is still not confident to go on full blown conflict but he may not have a choice as time is running out.
US is technically bankrupt and the situation may get even worse. The amount of interests US Gov has to pay each year will only get even more if the current deficits and debts are to get larger. This is definitely not sustainable.
This is one of the reasons why Trump insists a reduction of interest rates.
Trump doesn't want to be distracted by other battles in Ukraine or Gaza. This is why Trump wanted to end the war in Ukraine and Gaza while focusing US naval forces in South China Sea.
US has conducted various war gaming with regards to conflicts in Taiwan and South China Sea and the results were stunning. They couldn't win in any of the scenarios.
This is worrying for US and they knew they couldn't possibly have multiple confrontations in Europe, Middle East and Asia all happening at once. This is the main reason for Trump's initial plan to end Ukraine war asap and forced to end Iran Israel conflicts with such abrupt and awkward way.
US knows they alone can't possibly fight China. Contrary to those military powers comparisons, China is considered as second most powerful country after US. Although in terms of numbers, US may have absolute advantage but US is fast losing its technological advantages.
In fact, after 3 Sep Parade where China has showcased "part" of its most advanced weaponry arsenal, it is obvious that China has superceded US in some technological aspects.
Furthermore, US troops are spread too wide too thin while China's forces are very focused on its own claimed turfs and borders in East Asia.
China will definitely have home ground advantage if the conflicts were to happen in Taiwan Strait or South China Sea.
For "foreign forces" like US, it will take 3 to 1 force ratio to secure an absolute battle advantage. However US alone won't be able to secure that advantage. It will need South Korea, Taiwan, Japan an Philippines to form up a combined forces.
However China is not alone. It has North Korea and Russia backing it up. The recent combined military exercise between Russia and China is actually quite significant in terms of strategic perspective.
The fundamental difference between US and China is that China has no interest to invade US or any other country except to ascertain its sovereignty over Taiwan and South China Sea. Unlike US which has involved directly numerous wars and conflicts all over the world throughout the decades since 1945, almost uninterrupted, China has been focusing on its immediate core interests surrounding its boundaries.
It's all about oil and other resources US is fighting for. The latest being Venezuela.
Although US may have the biggest and most powerful forces on Earth throughout the decades, but it is proven that this doesn't make it invincible at all. It has lost three major wars in the past decades, from Korean war, Vietnam War and Afghanistan war, while didn't manage to maintain its trophies in other battles or warfares which it has great advantages.
Among the three wars US lost, one was a direct conflict with China with the other 2 proxy wars with China.
It could only have an absolute upper hand when Russia and China were not involved as the sponsors of the proxy warfares.
My generation as well as many generations of Singaporeans have been brain washed by US controlled media and Hollywood movies into believing US military absolute supremacy but the Historical Truth is rather mixed.
To be continued...
