China flaunted their missile test photos to show that JL-3 SLBM is hypersonic HGV that can easily have global range fired from type 095 nuke subs. Tested successfully this week. Fired from sea to Mongolian desert missile test range. The dancing orbit on the night sky's illuminated by missile traced the HGV gliding orbit. Nothing can intercept this unpredictable orbit at hypersonic speed.
http://slide.mil.news.sina.com.cn/h/slide_8_62085_63129.html?img=644531#p=1
霹雳掣电捎平冈：27日，中国疑首射海基高超音速武器
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2018.04.28 19:53:32
4月27日晚8时许，北京等地的夜空划过一道奇异光束，因外形像是一个巨大的飞行手电，网友戏称其为“天外来客”。此后据多地网友爆料，这道光束还出现在了河北、内蒙古、山西、天津以及山东等地上空。这道神秘光束到底是什么，中国又是否在试验某款新型武器，本期出鞘带您关注4月27日晚北京上空的那道神秘光束。（查看完整内容搜索微信公众号：sinamilnews）
霹雳掣电捎平冈：27日，中国疑首射海基高超音速武器
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在所谓的“不明飞行物”炒热国内社交网络后不久，包括某权威性媒体在内的多家消息源就言之凿凿地声称，这是刚刚在山西太原卫星发射基地发射的北斗卫星。但从网上视频可以看出，这“不明飞行物”拖着白色长扇形尾光，在高空中划过曲线，明显是进行了高空变轨。事实上，北斗卫星因位处中高轨道，一般都在中国唯一能进行高轨道发射的西昌基地发射，比如3月30日，长征三号乙就才在西昌以“一箭双星”成功发射了第三十、三十一颗北斗导航卫星。
霹雳掣电捎平冈：27日，中国疑首射海基高超音速武器
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此外，从太原基地以往的发射记录来看，虽然该地多执行中、低轨道卫星的发射任务，但主要由长征二号丙/丁和长征四号乙/丙执行，而发射北斗卫星主要采用长征三号甲。当然也有媒体据此研判，此次是太原的长征四号乙火箭搭载高分五号卫星。但从这次的飞行轨迹以及各地网友曝光的图片来看，该“不明飞行物”明显是以从东往西的方向飞行，因此不可能是从太原卫星发射基地发射的。而国内大部分媒体报道为高分北斗卫星发射，作为新闻媒体，不去考证就张嘴胡来抢新闻，绝不可取。
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在排除火箭是从太原发射的这个可能性之后，我们再来尝试研判下该飞行物到底会是“何方神圣”。通过曝光的飞行轨迹，我们可以发现该飞行物在空中曾多次进行变轨并主动关闭发动机。虽然目前我国大型民用火箭已基本具备滑翔和变轨技术，但这种滑翔和变轨是长距离、缓慢的，而我们从照片可以发现该飞行物角度较小、变轨灵活，因此也不可能是大型火箭发射的景象。（想对中国高超音速武器有更多了解，可查看往期出鞘《追星赶月擎雷电：中国高超音速武器展望》，欢迎点击链接http://slide.mil.news.sina.com.cn/k/slide_8_62085_39249.html）
霹雳掣电捎平冈：27日，中国疑首射海基高超音速武器
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在大型民用火箭之外，目前能在太空中实施多次主动变轨的，还有反导/反卫星导弹和高超音速导弹。以反导/反卫星导弹为例，导弹在发射上天之后，通过需要进行多次轨道调整，才能命中目标。中国此前利用DN-3导弹进行陆基中段反导试验时，所产生的飞行尾迹就与此次照片中的非常类似，这也是部分媒体认定本次事件是解放军进行反导/反卫星试验的原因所在。而高超音速导弹则由于弹道特殊，以滑翔姿态返回大气层时，会像石子在水面打漂一样不断弹起、跳跃飞行，同样会产生此类“异常天象”。那么这次到底是哪种类型的导弹呢？我们大胆猜测，此次应该是我军在试验某款高超音速导弹。
霹雳掣电捎平冈：27日，中国疑首射海基高超音速武器
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首先从目击“不明飞行物”的城市分布来看，地点普遍在北纬35-40度左右的区域，比如北京、河北、山西以及内蒙等地在内的华北地区。我们都知道，这些城市都是人口极其密集、工业设施齐聚的大中型城市。以往解放军在试验陆基中段反导拦截技术时，靶弹通常都是从山西五寨向新疆库尔勒方向发射，沿途几乎都是人烟稀少地带。比如今年2月5日，中国第四次成功进行陆基中段反导拦截试验时，靶弹东风-21就是从五寨发射，拦截弹动能-3则是从库尔勒发射，拦截区域则位于青海。
霹雳掣电捎平冈：27日，中国疑首射海基高超音速武器
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另外一个值得注意的是，本次“不明飞行物”事件发生前后，官方并没有发布相关航行通告。而在今年2月5日的陆基中段反导试验中，兰州飞行情报区（ZLHW）的A0412/18通告就以北纬41.366度、东经86.084度为圆心，画了一个半径130公里全高度禁飞的禁飞区。此次则是在民航飞行员目击“异常天象”并向民航公司报告之后，由民航公司自主发起的“禁航”。按照惯例，如果进行相关反导/反卫星试验，官方应该会提前发布禁飞令。
霹雳掣电捎平冈：27日，中国疑首射海基高超音速武器
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虽然天上没有发布禁飞令，但在海上却有一则航行警告值得我们关注。4月27日，辽宁海事局发布了两条航行警告（辽航警0090和辽航警0091），地点位于大连旅顺口附近海域。时值中国首艘国产航母传出异动，环球网在报道中认为该航行警告是为航母海试作准备。但我们猜测，该航行警告或与本次“不明飞行物”事件有关，因为大连不仅是正在准备海试的中国首艘国产航母所在地，还是我军032导弹试验潜艇的停靠地。
霹雳掣电捎平冈：27日，中国疑首射海基高超音速武器
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去年8月参考消息曾引述英国简氏报道称，我军唯一一艘常规动力弹道导弹潜艇032的帆罩后部升高了，当时人们认为这可能是为了容纳更长的潜射弹道导弹发射管，以测试将装备于096核潜艇的“巨浪-3”潜射弹道导弹。此外当时也有观点认为，由于这艘潜艇的帆罩并没有加宽的迹象，可能是为了测试“巨浪-2”潜射弹道导弹的射程更长或是载荷更大/多弹头版本。结合此次事件，我们不妨大胆假设，032的改造就是为了测试加装高超音速弹头的“巨浪-2”，并且该弹就在本次旅顺口附近海域禁航期间进行了试射。
霹雳掣电捎平冈：27日，中国疑首射海基高超音速武器
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我们猜测，高超音速弹头版“巨浪-2”应该是一款从海上发射的、以固体火箭发动机为助推段、具有高空滑翔弹道和自主返航能力的特种飞行器。比如，该弹在从032潜艇发射之后，可能先利用推重比较高的固体发动机直接发射到太空轨道，然后利用重力在太空实现转向，再启动固体发动机进行水平加速滑行。考虑到此前世界上并没有飞行器成功实现水平起滑的案例，如果我们的猜测属实，这款导弹毫无疑问将成为我军武器装备实现世界领先的又一次重大突破。
霹雳掣电捎平冈：27日，中国疑首射海基高超音速武器
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结合此次飞行轨迹，我们猜测这次试射的导弹可能采用了“桑格尔弹道”。这是一种利用助推器先将飞行器投送至太空以获得一定的速度矢量，然后在太空与大气层的交界处，利用重力和空气升力的联合作用，以“打水漂”的方式实现远距离飞行和突防的弹道。大家一般所熟知的是“钱学森弹道”，这种弹道也是先让助推器将飞行器推出大气层，而后在重力的作用下重返临近空间，并利用激波浮力实现在临空空间的远距离滑行。两者在弹道上的主要区别在于，“桑格尔弹道”能够实现多次“跳跃”，此次飞行轨迹明显更加曲折，很可能并不是“万众期待”的“钱学森弹道”，尽管该弹道更容易激起国人的某种热情。
霹雳掣电捎平冈：27日，中国疑首射海基高超音速武器
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此次引发骚动的另一个原因在于，这个“不明飞行物”的轨迹实在太亮。从各地观测时间来看，人们发现的时候恰好是傍晚7-8点。我们知道在火箭发动机燃烧时，产物中的水会在低温的高空形成冰晶。由于高空空气稀薄，冰晶会快速扩散，形成一个小头大尾巴的形状，并反射阳光而被我们看到尾迹。我们能在跨度很广的区域上看到这个“不明飞行物”，说明它飞行时高度很高、距离很远，绝不可能是在底层大气层内的飞行器。值得一提的是，昨晚也有飞行员在位处近一万米的客机巡航高度上目击了这一幕，当时该“不明飞行物”甚至远在客机上空。
霹雳掣电捎平冈：27日，中国疑首射海基高超音速武器
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不过根据各地网友曝照的情况，我们发现在太原以西地域并没有相关照片曝光，有一种看法认为，这款高超音速武器可能在山西附近进行了发动机停车，并进行了自主伞降，当然它也可能选在了内蒙古落地。现有高超声速武器降落方式主要有伞降和机场降落等方式，比如X-37B就是进行机场降落，但考虑到山西和内蒙古等地的现有机场，以及以往我国地面回收载人太空舱的成功经验，我们猜测这款高超声速武器进行伞降的可能性暂时最大。
霹雳掣电捎平冈：27日，中国疑首射海基高超音速武器
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2014年开始，中国开始进行高超音速滑翔器试验，当时美国认为中国的高超声速武器只有一款，并将其命名为WU-14或DF-ZF。但在去年11月，大出美国人意料之外的是，央视曝光称中国目前处于不同研制阶段的高超音速武器共有3种。此外，去年央视还介绍了我国首个自主研发建造的高超音速风洞——JF12激波风洞，作为发展高超声速武器的必要装备，这个风洞的曝光无疑意味着中国高超声速武器已经走在了世界前列。如果这次“不明飞行物”事件被证实，是中国首次试射海基版高超声速武器，那它无疑代表着中国高超声速武器的又一个重大进步，毕竟这是世界上首次有潜射高超音速武器亮相。
霹雳掣电捎平冈：27日，中国疑首射海基高超音速武器
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目前中国海军的主力海基核力量是现役094晋级核潜艇上部署的“巨浪-2”。据环球网报道，这款固体潜射弹道导弹重42吨，射程仅为8000公里，需要让094核潜艇前出西太平洋才能打击美国全境，众人一直期待“巨浪-3”尽快诞生的原因就在于此。如果本次试验确实是在“巨浪-2”基础上改装的高超音速导弹，那么“巨浪-2”射程不足的难题显然会迎刃而解。此外，由于近年来美国在西太地区加快部署导弹预警与拦截系统，我军核力量急需加强突防能力建设来应对，高超音速版“巨浪-2”的出现也可以说是正当其时。
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值得注意的是，在本次“异常天象”引起国内吃瓜群众热烈围观的同时，在黄海上空，中国的“老朋友”美军也派出了大批战机前来“围观”。美国空军的E-8C就离开了嘉手纳基地前来黄海执行侦察任务，此外美军还出动了KC-135R、RC-135W等战机。E-8C堪称美军最强“空中大脑”，可进行实时的广阔区域监视和远程目标攻击指挥。而RC-135W则是美军现役战略侦察机，尤其擅长在沿海地区实施收集弹道导弹情报的侦察行动，性能据称比EP-3还优越。
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“一个人的命运啊，当然要靠自我奋斗，但是也要考虑到历史的行程”。中国包括高超声速武器在内的军用装备能够取得今天这样巨大的成就，我们不能忘记那位从未逝去的老人曾为此作出的贡献。27日晚8点北京上空那道神秘光束，秀出的不仅是中国的强大实力。本期出鞘就到这里，我们下期再见。
霹雳掣电捎平冈: On the 27th, China’s suspected first shot of Haiji hypersonic weapon
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At 8 o'clock on the evening of April 27th, the night sky of Beijing and other places crossed a strange beam of light. Because the shape was like a huge flying flashlight, netizens joked that it was a "outside visitor." Since then, according to many local friends, this light beam has appeared in Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Tianjin and Shandong. What is this mysterious beam, and whether China is testing a new type of weapon, this issue will take you to the mysterious beam over Beijing on the evening of April 27. (View full content search WeChat public number: sinamilnews)
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Shortly after the so-called "UFO" sizzling domestic social networks, a number of sources, including an authoritative media, claimed to be the Beidou satellite that was just launched at the Taiyuan satellite launch base in Shanxi. However, it can be seen from the online video that this "unidentified flying object" dragged the white long fan-shaped tail light and crossed the curve in the high air, which was obviously a high-altitude orbit. In fact, the Beidou satellite is generally in the middle and high orbit of China. It is usually launched in Xichang, China, where it can launch high-orbital launches. For example, on March 30, the Long March III was successfully launched in Xichang with “One Arrow Double Star”. Thirty or thirty Beidou navigation satellites.
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In addition, from the past transmission records of the Taiyuan base, although the site has carried out the launching tasks of medium and low-orbit satellites, it is mainly carried out by the Long March II C/Ding and the Long March 4 B/C, and the launch of the Beidou satellite is mainly used. Long March No. 3 A. Of course, some media have also judged this. It is Taiyuan’s Long March 4th B rocket carrying the high-scoring satellite No. 5. However, judging from the flight trajectory and the pictures exposed by netizens from all over the country, the "unidentified flying object" obviously flies from the east to the west, so it is impossible to launch from the Taiyuan satellite launching base. Most domestic media reports are for the high-scoring Beidou satellite launch. As a news media, it is absolutely unacceptable to rush to grab the news without going to the test.
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After eliminating the possibility that the rocket was launched from Taiyuan, we will try to judge whether the flying object will be "what is sacred". Through the exposed flight path, we can find that the flying object has been orbited several times in the air and actively shut down the engine. Although China's large civilian rockets are basically equipped with gliding and orbiting technology, the gliding and orbiting are long-distance and slow, and we can see from the photos that the flying object has a small angle and flexible orbit, so it is impossible. It is the scene of a large rocket launch. (If you want to know more about China's hypersonic weapons, you can check out the previous issue of "Chasing Stars and Catching Lights: China's Hypersonic Weapons Outlook". Welcome to click on the link http://slide.mil.news.sina.com.cn /k/slide_8_62085_39249.html)
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In addition to large civilian rockets, it is currently possible to implement multiple active orbital changes in space, as well as anti-missile/anti-satellite missiles and hypersonic missiles. Take the anti-missile/anti-satellite missile as an example. After the launch of the missile, it is necessary to make multiple orbital adjustments before hitting the target. When China used the DN-3 missile to conduct the ground-based mid-course anti-missile test, the flight trails produced were very similar to those in this photo. This is why some media determined that this incident was the PLA's anti-missile/anti-satellite test. Where. The hypersonic missile, due to its special trajectory, returns to the atmosphere in a gliding attitude, and will continue to bounce and jump like a stone floating on the surface of the water, which will also produce such "abnormal celestial phenomena". So what kind of missile is this time? We boldly speculated that this time our army should be testing a hypersonic missile.
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First of all, from the perspective of the city distribution of "unidentified flying objects", the locations are generally around 35-40 degrees north latitude, such as Beijing, Hebei, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia. We all know that these cities are large and medium-sized cities with extremely dense populations and industrial facilities. In the past, when the PLA used the anti-missile interception technology in the middle of the land-based section, the target bombs were usually launched from the Wuzhai Mountain in Shanxi to the Korla in Xinjiang, and almost all of them were sparsely populated. For example, on February 5 this year, China successfully carried out the land-based mid-course anti-missile interception test for the fourth time. The target Dongfeng-21 was launched from Wuzhai, the interception kinetic energy-3 was launched from Korla, and the interception area was located in Qinghai.
霹雳掣电捎平冈: On the 27th, China’s suspected first shot of Haiji hypersonic weapon
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Another noteworthy thing is that the official did not issue relevant navigation notices before and after the "UFO" incident. In the land-based mid-course anti-missile test on February 5 this year, the A0412/18 notice of the Lanzhou Flight Information Region (ZLHW) was centered at 41.366 degrees north latitude and 86.084 degrees east longitude, and a full height no-fly was drawn at a radius of 130 kilometers. No-fly zone. This time, after the civil aviation pilots witnessed the “abnormal sky” and reported it to the civil aviation company, the civil aviation company independently initiated the “no-go”. In accordance with established practice, if a relevant anti-missile/anti-satellite test is conducted, the official should issue a no-fly order in advance.
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Although there is no no-fly order issued in the sky, there is a navigation warning at sea that deserves our attention. On April 27, Liaoning Maritime Safety Bureau issued two navigation warnings (Liao Air Traffic Police 0090 and Liao Air Traffic Police 0091), located in the waters near Lushunkou, Dalian. At the time, China’s first domestic aircraft carrier was sent out. The World Wide Web reported that the navigation warning was prepared for the carrier’s sea trial. However, we suspect that the navigation warning is related to this "unidentified flying object" incident, because Dalian is not only the seat of China's first domestic aircraft carrier that is preparing for the sea trial, but also the stop of our military 032 missile test submarine.
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In August last year, the reference news quoted the British Jane as saying that the rear of the sailboat cover of the only conventional power ballistic missile submarine 032 of our army rose. It was thought that this might be to accommodate longer submarine-launched ballistic missile launches. Tube to test the "Julang-3" submarine-launched ballistic missile that will be equipped on the 096 nuclear submarine. In addition, there were also views that the sailboat's sail cover did not show signs of widening, perhaps to test the longer range or load/multi-war version of the "Julang-2" submarine-launched ballistic missile. Combined with this incident, we may wish to boldly assume that the transformation of 032 is to test the "Julang-2" with the addition of hypersonic warheads, and the bomb was tested during the ban on the sea near Lushunkou.
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We suspect that the hypersonic warhead version of "Julang-2" should be a special aircraft launched from the sea, with a solid rocket engine as a booster, with high-altitude gliding trajectory and self-returning capability. For example, after launching from the 032 submarine, the missile may first be launched into space orbit by a solid engine with a relatively high thrust weight, then use gravity to achieve steering in space, and then start the solid engine for horizontal acceleration. Considering that there were no cases in the world where the aircraft successfully achieved horizontal skidding, if our guess is true, this missile will undoubtedly become another major breakthrough in the world's leading weaponry and equipment.
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Combined with this flight trajectory, we suspect that the missile tested this time may have adopted the "Sangger trajectory." This is a kind of booster that first delivers the aircraft to space to obtain a certain velocity vector, and then uses the combination of gravity and air lift at the junction of space and the atmosphere to achieve a far-reaching approach. Distance and flight trajectory. Everyone is generally familiar with the "Qian Xuesen trajectory". This trajectory is also to let the booster push the aircraft out of the atmosphere, then return to the adjacent space under the action of gravity, and use the shock buoyancy to achieve long-distance taxiing in the air space. . The main difference between the two on the trajectory is that the "Sangger trajectory" can achieve multiple "jumps". The flight path is obviously more tortuous. It is probably not the "Qian Xuesen trajectory" that is "expected", even though the trajectory is more It is easy to arouse some kind of enthusiasm for the people.
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Another reason for the turmoil is that the trajectory of this "unidentified flying object" is too bright. From the observation time of each place, people found it happened to be 7-8 in the evening. We know that when a rocket engine burns, the water in the product forms ice crystals at low temperatures. Due to the thin air at high altitude, the ice crystals will quickly spread, forming a small head and a large tail shape, and reflecting the sunlight and being seen by us. We can see this "unidentified flying object" in a wide span, indicating that it is very high in flight and far away, and it is impossible to be an aircraft in the lower atmosphere. It is worth mentioning that last night, some pilots witnessed the scene at the cruising altitude of the nearly 10,000-meter passenger plane. The "unidentified flying object" was even far above the passenger plane.
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However, according to the exposure of local netizens, we found that there is no relevant photo exposure in the west of Taiyuan. There is a view that this hypersonic weapon may have engine parking near Shanxi and has carried out an autonomous parachute. Of course, it also May be selected to land in Inner Mongolia. The existing methods of landing the hypersonic weapon mainly include parachute landing and airport landing. For example, the X-37B is for airport landing, but considering the existing airports in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, as well as the success of the ground recycling manned space capsules in China. Experience, we guess the possibility of this hypersonic weapon for parachute is temporarily the largest.
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Beginning in 2014, China began a hypersonic glider test. At that time, the United States believed that China had only one hypersonic weapon and named it WU-14 or DF-ZF. But in November last year, the Americans unexpectedly expected that CCTV revealed that there are three kinds of hypersonic weapons that China is currently at different stages of development. In addition, last year, CCTV also introduced China's first self-developed and built supersonic wind tunnel, the JF12 shock wave wind tunnel, as the necessary equipment for the development of hypersonic weapons. The exposure of this wind tunnel undoubtedly means that Chinese hypersonic weapons have already been The forefront of the world. If this "UFO" incident is confirmed, it is China's first test of the sea-based version of hypersonic weapons, which undoubtedly represents another major advancement of China's hypersonic weapons. After all, this is the world's first submarine-launched hypersonic speed. The weapon appeared.
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At present, the main force of the Chinese Navy is the "Julang-2" deployed on the 094-class nuclear submarine. According to the World Wide Web report, this solid submarine-launched ballistic missile weighs 42 tons and has a range of only 8,000 kilometers. It is necessary to let the 094 nuclear submarine out of the western Pacific before hitting the whole country. The reason why everyone has been expecting the "Julang-3" to be born as soon as possible is Here. If this test is indeed a hypersonic missile modified on the basis of "Julang-2", then the problem of insufficient range of "Julang-2" will obviously be solved. In addition, due to the speeding up of the deployment of missile warning and interception systems in the Western Pacific region in recent years, our military nuclear forces urgently need to strengthen the ability to build penetration to deal with it. The emergence of the hypersonic version of "Julang-2" can also be said to be justified.
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It is worth noting that at this time, the "abnormal celestial phenomena" caused a lot of domestic melons to watch. At the same time, in the Yellow Sea, China's "old friends" American troops also sent a large number of fighters to "crowd." The US Air Force's E-8C left the Kadena base to carry out reconnaissance missions in the Yellow Sea. In addition, the US military also dispatched KC-135R and RC-135W fighters. The E-8C is the strongest "airborne brain" of the US military. It can perform real-time wide-area surveillance and remote target attack command. The RC-135W is a US military active reconnaissance aircraft. It is especially good at carrying out reconnaissance operations for collecting ballistic missile information in coastal areas. Its performance is said to be superior to EP-3.
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http://slide.mil.news.sina.com.cn/h/slide_8_62085_63129.html?img=644531#p=1
霹雳掣电捎平冈：27日，中国疑首射海基高超音速武器
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4月27日晚8时许，北京等地的夜空划过一道奇异光束，因外形像是一个巨大的飞行手电，网友戏称其为“天外来客”。此后据多地网友爆料，这道光束还出现在了河北、内蒙古、山西、天津以及山东等地上空。这道神秘光束到底是什么，中国又是否在试验某款新型武器，本期出鞘带您关注4月27日晚北京上空的那道神秘光束。（查看完整内容搜索微信公众号：sinamilnews）
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在所谓的“不明飞行物”炒热国内社交网络后不久，包括某权威性媒体在内的多家消息源就言之凿凿地声称，这是刚刚在山西太原卫星发射基地发射的北斗卫星。但从网上视频可以看出，这“不明飞行物”拖着白色长扇形尾光，在高空中划过曲线，明显是进行了高空变轨。事实上，北斗卫星因位处中高轨道，一般都在中国唯一能进行高轨道发射的西昌基地发射，比如3月30日，长征三号乙就才在西昌以“一箭双星”成功发射了第三十、三十一颗北斗导航卫星。
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此外，从太原基地以往的发射记录来看，虽然该地多执行中、低轨道卫星的发射任务，但主要由长征二号丙/丁和长征四号乙/丙执行，而发射北斗卫星主要采用长征三号甲。当然也有媒体据此研判，此次是太原的长征四号乙火箭搭载高分五号卫星。但从这次的飞行轨迹以及各地网友曝光的图片来看，该“不明飞行物”明显是以从东往西的方向飞行，因此不可能是从太原卫星发射基地发射的。而国内大部分媒体报道为高分北斗卫星发射，作为新闻媒体，不去考证就张嘴胡来抢新闻，绝不可取。
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在排除火箭是从太原发射的这个可能性之后，我们再来尝试研判下该飞行物到底会是“何方神圣”。通过曝光的飞行轨迹，我们可以发现该飞行物在空中曾多次进行变轨并主动关闭发动机。虽然目前我国大型民用火箭已基本具备滑翔和变轨技术，但这种滑翔和变轨是长距离、缓慢的，而我们从照片可以发现该飞行物角度较小、变轨灵活，因此也不可能是大型火箭发射的景象。（想对中国高超音速武器有更多了解，可查看往期出鞘《追星赶月擎雷电：中国高超音速武器展望》，欢迎点击链接http://slide.mil.news.sina.com.cn/k/slide_8_62085_39249.html）
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在大型民用火箭之外，目前能在太空中实施多次主动变轨的，还有反导/反卫星导弹和高超音速导弹。以反导/反卫星导弹为例，导弹在发射上天之后，通过需要进行多次轨道调整，才能命中目标。中国此前利用DN-3导弹进行陆基中段反导试验时，所产生的飞行尾迹就与此次照片中的非常类似，这也是部分媒体认定本次事件是解放军进行反导/反卫星试验的原因所在。而高超音速导弹则由于弹道特殊，以滑翔姿态返回大气层时，会像石子在水面打漂一样不断弹起、跳跃飞行，同样会产生此类“异常天象”。那么这次到底是哪种类型的导弹呢？我们大胆猜测，此次应该是我军在试验某款高超音速导弹。
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首先从目击“不明飞行物”的城市分布来看，地点普遍在北纬35-40度左右的区域，比如北京、河北、山西以及内蒙等地在内的华北地区。我们都知道，这些城市都是人口极其密集、工业设施齐聚的大中型城市。以往解放军在试验陆基中段反导拦截技术时，靶弹通常都是从山西五寨向新疆库尔勒方向发射，沿途几乎都是人烟稀少地带。比如今年2月5日，中国第四次成功进行陆基中段反导拦截试验时，靶弹东风-21就是从五寨发射，拦截弹动能-3则是从库尔勒发射，拦截区域则位于青海。
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另外一个值得注意的是，本次“不明飞行物”事件发生前后，官方并没有发布相关航行通告。而在今年2月5日的陆基中段反导试验中，兰州飞行情报区（ZLHW）的A0412/18通告就以北纬41.366度、东经86.084度为圆心，画了一个半径130公里全高度禁飞的禁飞区。此次则是在民航飞行员目击“异常天象”并向民航公司报告之后，由民航公司自主发起的“禁航”。按照惯例，如果进行相关反导/反卫星试验，官方应该会提前发布禁飞令。
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虽然天上没有发布禁飞令，但在海上却有一则航行警告值得我们关注。4月27日，辽宁海事局发布了两条航行警告（辽航警0090和辽航警0091），地点位于大连旅顺口附近海域。时值中国首艘国产航母传出异动，环球网在报道中认为该航行警告是为航母海试作准备。但我们猜测，该航行警告或与本次“不明飞行物”事件有关，因为大连不仅是正在准备海试的中国首艘国产航母所在地，还是我军032导弹试验潜艇的停靠地。
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去年8月参考消息曾引述英国简氏报道称，我军唯一一艘常规动力弹道导弹潜艇032的帆罩后部升高了，当时人们认为这可能是为了容纳更长的潜射弹道导弹发射管，以测试将装备于096核潜艇的“巨浪-3”潜射弹道导弹。此外当时也有观点认为，由于这艘潜艇的帆罩并没有加宽的迹象，可能是为了测试“巨浪-2”潜射弹道导弹的射程更长或是载荷更大/多弹头版本。结合此次事件，我们不妨大胆假设，032的改造就是为了测试加装高超音速弹头的“巨浪-2”，并且该弹就在本次旅顺口附近海域禁航期间进行了试射。
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我们猜测，高超音速弹头版“巨浪-2”应该是一款从海上发射的、以固体火箭发动机为助推段、具有高空滑翔弹道和自主返航能力的特种飞行器。比如，该弹在从032潜艇发射之后，可能先利用推重比较高的固体发动机直接发射到太空轨道，然后利用重力在太空实现转向，再启动固体发动机进行水平加速滑行。考虑到此前世界上并没有飞行器成功实现水平起滑的案例，如果我们的猜测属实，这款导弹毫无疑问将成为我军武器装备实现世界领先的又一次重大突破。
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结合此次飞行轨迹，我们猜测这次试射的导弹可能采用了“桑格尔弹道”。这是一种利用助推器先将飞行器投送至太空以获得一定的速度矢量，然后在太空与大气层的交界处，利用重力和空气升力的联合作用，以“打水漂”的方式实现远距离飞行和突防的弹道。大家一般所熟知的是“钱学森弹道”，这种弹道也是先让助推器将飞行器推出大气层，而后在重力的作用下重返临近空间，并利用激波浮力实现在临空空间的远距离滑行。两者在弹道上的主要区别在于，“桑格尔弹道”能够实现多次“跳跃”，此次飞行轨迹明显更加曲折，很可能并不是“万众期待”的“钱学森弹道”，尽管该弹道更容易激起国人的某种热情。
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此次引发骚动的另一个原因在于，这个“不明飞行物”的轨迹实在太亮。从各地观测时间来看，人们发现的时候恰好是傍晚7-8点。我们知道在火箭发动机燃烧时，产物中的水会在低温的高空形成冰晶。由于高空空气稀薄，冰晶会快速扩散，形成一个小头大尾巴的形状，并反射阳光而被我们看到尾迹。我们能在跨度很广的区域上看到这个“不明飞行物”，说明它飞行时高度很高、距离很远，绝不可能是在底层大气层内的飞行器。值得一提的是，昨晚也有飞行员在位处近一万米的客机巡航高度上目击了这一幕，当时该“不明飞行物”甚至远在客机上空。
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不过根据各地网友曝照的情况，我们发现在太原以西地域并没有相关照片曝光，有一种看法认为，这款高超音速武器可能在山西附近进行了发动机停车，并进行了自主伞降，当然它也可能选在了内蒙古落地。现有高超声速武器降落方式主要有伞降和机场降落等方式，比如X-37B就是进行机场降落，但考虑到山西和内蒙古等地的现有机场，以及以往我国地面回收载人太空舱的成功经验，我们猜测这款高超声速武器进行伞降的可能性暂时最大。
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2014年开始，中国开始进行高超音速滑翔器试验，当时美国认为中国的高超声速武器只有一款，并将其命名为WU-14或DF-ZF。但在去年11月，大出美国人意料之外的是，央视曝光称中国目前处于不同研制阶段的高超音速武器共有3种。此外，去年央视还介绍了我国首个自主研发建造的高超音速风洞——JF12激波风洞，作为发展高超声速武器的必要装备，这个风洞的曝光无疑意味着中国高超声速武器已经走在了世界前列。如果这次“不明飞行物”事件被证实，是中国首次试射海基版高超声速武器，那它无疑代表着中国高超声速武器的又一个重大进步，毕竟这是世界上首次有潜射高超音速武器亮相。
霹雳掣电捎平冈：27日，中国疑首射海基高超音速武器
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2018.04.28 19:53:32
目前中国海军的主力海基核力量是现役094晋级核潜艇上部署的“巨浪-2”。据环球网报道，这款固体潜射弹道导弹重42吨，射程仅为8000公里，需要让094核潜艇前出西太平洋才能打击美国全境，众人一直期待“巨浪-3”尽快诞生的原因就在于此。如果本次试验确实是在“巨浪-2”基础上改装的高超音速导弹，那么“巨浪-2”射程不足的难题显然会迎刃而解。此外，由于近年来美国在西太地区加快部署导弹预警与拦截系统，我军核力量急需加强突防能力建设来应对，高超音速版“巨浪-2”的出现也可以说是正当其时。
霹雳掣电捎平冈：27日，中国疑首射海基高超音速武器
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2018.04.28 19:53:32
值得注意的是，在本次“异常天象”引起国内吃瓜群众热烈围观的同时，在黄海上空，中国的“老朋友”美军也派出了大批战机前来“围观”。美国空军的E-8C就离开了嘉手纳基地前来黄海执行侦察任务，此外美军还出动了KC-135R、RC-135W等战机。E-8C堪称美军最强“空中大脑”，可进行实时的广阔区域监视和远程目标攻击指挥。而RC-135W则是美军现役战略侦察机，尤其擅长在沿海地区实施收集弹道导弹情报的侦察行动，性能据称比EP-3还优越。
霹雳掣电捎平冈：27日，中国疑首射海基高超音速武器
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2018.04.28 19:53:32
“一个人的命运啊，当然要靠自我奋斗，但是也要考虑到历史的行程”。中国包括高超声速武器在内的军用装备能够取得今天这样巨大的成就，我们不能忘记那位从未逝去的老人曾为此作出的贡献。27日晚8点北京上空那道神秘光束，秀出的不仅是中国的强大实力。本期出鞘就到这里，我们下期再见。
霹雳掣电捎平冈: On the 27th, China’s suspected first shot of Haiji hypersonic weapon
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At 8 o'clock on the evening of April 27th, the night sky of Beijing and other places crossed a strange beam of light. Because the shape was like a huge flying flashlight, netizens joked that it was a "outside visitor." Since then, according to many local friends, this light beam has appeared in Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Tianjin and Shandong. What is this mysterious beam, and whether China is testing a new type of weapon, this issue will take you to the mysterious beam over Beijing on the evening of April 27. (View full content search WeChat public number: sinamilnews)
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Shortly after the so-called "UFO" sizzling domestic social networks, a number of sources, including an authoritative media, claimed to be the Beidou satellite that was just launched at the Taiyuan satellite launch base in Shanxi. However, it can be seen from the online video that this "unidentified flying object" dragged the white long fan-shaped tail light and crossed the curve in the high air, which was obviously a high-altitude orbit. In fact, the Beidou satellite is generally in the middle and high orbit of China. It is usually launched in Xichang, China, where it can launch high-orbital launches. For example, on March 30, the Long March III was successfully launched in Xichang with “One Arrow Double Star”. Thirty or thirty Beidou navigation satellites.
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In addition, from the past transmission records of the Taiyuan base, although the site has carried out the launching tasks of medium and low-orbit satellites, it is mainly carried out by the Long March II C/Ding and the Long March 4 B/C, and the launch of the Beidou satellite is mainly used. Long March No. 3 A. Of course, some media have also judged this. It is Taiyuan’s Long March 4th B rocket carrying the high-scoring satellite No. 5. However, judging from the flight trajectory and the pictures exposed by netizens from all over the country, the "unidentified flying object" obviously flies from the east to the west, so it is impossible to launch from the Taiyuan satellite launching base. Most domestic media reports are for the high-scoring Beidou satellite launch. As a news media, it is absolutely unacceptable to rush to grab the news without going to the test.
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After eliminating the possibility that the rocket was launched from Taiyuan, we will try to judge whether the flying object will be "what is sacred". Through the exposed flight path, we can find that the flying object has been orbited several times in the air and actively shut down the engine. Although China's large civilian rockets are basically equipped with gliding and orbiting technology, the gliding and orbiting are long-distance and slow, and we can see from the photos that the flying object has a small angle and flexible orbit, so it is impossible. It is the scene of a large rocket launch. (If you want to know more about China's hypersonic weapons, you can check out the previous issue of "Chasing Stars and Catching Lights: China's Hypersonic Weapons Outlook". Welcome to click on the link http://slide.mil.news.sina.com.cn /k/slide_8_62085_39249.html)
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In addition to large civilian rockets, it is currently possible to implement multiple active orbital changes in space, as well as anti-missile/anti-satellite missiles and hypersonic missiles. Take the anti-missile/anti-satellite missile as an example. After the launch of the missile, it is necessary to make multiple orbital adjustments before hitting the target. When China used the DN-3 missile to conduct the ground-based mid-course anti-missile test, the flight trails produced were very similar to those in this photo. This is why some media determined that this incident was the PLA's anti-missile/anti-satellite test. Where. The hypersonic missile, due to its special trajectory, returns to the atmosphere in a gliding attitude, and will continue to bounce and jump like a stone floating on the surface of the water, which will also produce such "abnormal celestial phenomena". So what kind of missile is this time? We boldly speculated that this time our army should be testing a hypersonic missile.
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First of all, from the perspective of the city distribution of "unidentified flying objects", the locations are generally around 35-40 degrees north latitude, such as Beijing, Hebei, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia. We all know that these cities are large and medium-sized cities with extremely dense populations and industrial facilities. In the past, when the PLA used the anti-missile interception technology in the middle of the land-based section, the target bombs were usually launched from the Wuzhai Mountain in Shanxi to the Korla in Xinjiang, and almost all of them were sparsely populated. For example, on February 5 this year, China successfully carried out the land-based mid-course anti-missile interception test for the fourth time. The target Dongfeng-21 was launched from Wuzhai, the interception kinetic energy-3 was launched from Korla, and the interception area was located in Qinghai.
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Another noteworthy thing is that the official did not issue relevant navigation notices before and after the "UFO" incident. In the land-based mid-course anti-missile test on February 5 this year, the A0412/18 notice of the Lanzhou Flight Information Region (ZLHW) was centered at 41.366 degrees north latitude and 86.084 degrees east longitude, and a full height no-fly was drawn at a radius of 130 kilometers. No-fly zone. This time, after the civil aviation pilots witnessed the “abnormal sky” and reported it to the civil aviation company, the civil aviation company independently initiated the “no-go”. In accordance with established practice, if a relevant anti-missile/anti-satellite test is conducted, the official should issue a no-fly order in advance.
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Although there is no no-fly order issued in the sky, there is a navigation warning at sea that deserves our attention. On April 27, Liaoning Maritime Safety Bureau issued two navigation warnings (Liao Air Traffic Police 0090 and Liao Air Traffic Police 0091), located in the waters near Lushunkou, Dalian. At the time, China’s first domestic aircraft carrier was sent out. The World Wide Web reported that the navigation warning was prepared for the carrier’s sea trial. However, we suspect that the navigation warning is related to this "unidentified flying object" incident, because Dalian is not only the seat of China's first domestic aircraft carrier that is preparing for the sea trial, but also the stop of our military 032 missile test submarine.
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In August last year, the reference news quoted the British Jane as saying that the rear of the sailboat cover of the only conventional power ballistic missile submarine 032 of our army rose. It was thought that this might be to accommodate longer submarine-launched ballistic missile launches. Tube to test the "Julang-3" submarine-launched ballistic missile that will be equipped on the 096 nuclear submarine. In addition, there were also views that the sailboat's sail cover did not show signs of widening, perhaps to test the longer range or load/multi-war version of the "Julang-2" submarine-launched ballistic missile. Combined with this incident, we may wish to boldly assume that the transformation of 032 is to test the "Julang-2" with the addition of hypersonic warheads, and the bomb was tested during the ban on the sea near Lushunkou.
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We suspect that the hypersonic warhead version of "Julang-2" should be a special aircraft launched from the sea, with a solid rocket engine as a booster, with high-altitude gliding trajectory and self-returning capability. For example, after launching from the 032 submarine, the missile may first be launched into space orbit by a solid engine with a relatively high thrust weight, then use gravity to achieve steering in space, and then start the solid engine for horizontal acceleration. Considering that there were no cases in the world where the aircraft successfully achieved horizontal skidding, if our guess is true, this missile will undoubtedly become another major breakthrough in the world's leading weaponry and equipment.
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Combined with this flight trajectory, we suspect that the missile tested this time may have adopted the "Sangger trajectory." This is a kind of booster that first delivers the aircraft to space to obtain a certain velocity vector, and then uses the combination of gravity and air lift at the junction of space and the atmosphere to achieve a far-reaching approach. Distance and flight trajectory. Everyone is generally familiar with the "Qian Xuesen trajectory". This trajectory is also to let the booster push the aircraft out of the atmosphere, then return to the adjacent space under the action of gravity, and use the shock buoyancy to achieve long-distance taxiing in the air space. . The main difference between the two on the trajectory is that the "Sangger trajectory" can achieve multiple "jumps". The flight path is obviously more tortuous. It is probably not the "Qian Xuesen trajectory" that is "expected", even though the trajectory is more It is easy to arouse some kind of enthusiasm for the people.
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Another reason for the turmoil is that the trajectory of this "unidentified flying object" is too bright. From the observation time of each place, people found it happened to be 7-8 in the evening. We know that when a rocket engine burns, the water in the product forms ice crystals at low temperatures. Due to the thin air at high altitude, the ice crystals will quickly spread, forming a small head and a large tail shape, and reflecting the sunlight and being seen by us. We can see this "unidentified flying object" in a wide span, indicating that it is very high in flight and far away, and it is impossible to be an aircraft in the lower atmosphere. It is worth mentioning that last night, some pilots witnessed the scene at the cruising altitude of the nearly 10,000-meter passenger plane. The "unidentified flying object" was even far above the passenger plane.
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However, according to the exposure of local netizens, we found that there is no relevant photo exposure in the west of Taiyuan. There is a view that this hypersonic weapon may have engine parking near Shanxi and has carried out an autonomous parachute. Of course, it also May be selected to land in Inner Mongolia. The existing methods of landing the hypersonic weapon mainly include parachute landing and airport landing. For example, the X-37B is for airport landing, but considering the existing airports in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, as well as the success of the ground recycling manned space capsules in China. Experience, we guess the possibility of this hypersonic weapon for parachute is temporarily the largest.
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Beginning in 2014, China began a hypersonic glider test. At that time, the United States believed that China had only one hypersonic weapon and named it WU-14 or DF-ZF. But in November last year, the Americans unexpectedly expected that CCTV revealed that there are three kinds of hypersonic weapons that China is currently at different stages of development. In addition, last year, CCTV also introduced China's first self-developed and built supersonic wind tunnel, the JF12 shock wave wind tunnel, as the necessary equipment for the development of hypersonic weapons. The exposure of this wind tunnel undoubtedly means that Chinese hypersonic weapons have already been The forefront of the world. If this "UFO" incident is confirmed, it is China's first test of the sea-based version of hypersonic weapons, which undoubtedly represents another major advancement of China's hypersonic weapons. After all, this is the world's first submarine-launched hypersonic speed. The weapon appeared.
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At present, the main force of the Chinese Navy is the "Julang-2" deployed on the 094-class nuclear submarine. According to the World Wide Web report, this solid submarine-launched ballistic missile weighs 42 tons and has a range of only 8,000 kilometers. It is necessary to let the 094 nuclear submarine out of the western Pacific before hitting the whole country. The reason why everyone has been expecting the "Julang-3" to be born as soon as possible is Here. If this test is indeed a hypersonic missile modified on the basis of "Julang-2", then the problem of insufficient range of "Julang-2" will obviously be solved. In addition, due to the speeding up of the deployment of missile warning and interception systems in the Western Pacific region in recent years, our military nuclear forces urgently need to strengthen the ability to build penetration to deal with it. The emergence of the hypersonic version of "Julang-2" can also be said to be justified.
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It is worth noting that at this time, the "abnormal celestial phenomena" caused a lot of domestic melons to watch. At the same time, in the Yellow Sea, China's "old friends" American troops also sent a large number of fighters to "crowd." The US Air Force's E-8C left the Kadena base to carry out reconnaissance missions in the Yellow Sea. In addition, the US military also dispatched KC-135R and RC-135W fighters. The E-8C is the strongest "airborne brain" of the US military. It can perform real-time wide-area surveillance and remote target attack command. The RC-135W is a US military active reconnaissance aircraft. It is especially good at carrying out reconnaissance operations for collecting ballistic missile information in coastal areas. Its performance is said to be superior to EP-3.
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