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What to make of all these comments about the powers of the President?

Papsmearer

Alfrescian (InfP) - Comp
Generous Asset
I am quite astonished to see the dialogue played out in public between potential presidential candidates and the Minister of Law amongst others. It seems that the candidates have one opinion, and Shanmugam has another. Why would the Law Minister even engage in this dialogue? Why not just keep quiet and let the candidates indulge in their fantasy of what to do and how to do it when they win. I say this is a fantasy because, surely, they will not win. Only the anointed one Phoney Tan will win.

After all, the candidates have to survive the PEC screening. Judging by the composition of the members of the PEC, it leaves very little to imagination that as all the members are beholden to the PAP in some form or other, they would disqualify all candidates accept the anointed one. Or, as I have mentioned in my prior posts, they will eliminate the best non PAP candidates and leave a weak one there to run against Phoney Tan. This will at least present some semblance of democracy in the election process and in the independence of the post.

These recent comments by Shan and others have made me think twice. Are the PAP scared that they can actually lose this PE? Is that why they are trying to tell people that the Presidency is not that powerful? Shan’s comments are inarticulate and contradictory on many levels certainly not befitting a top legal mind that he supposedly possess.

He says for example in recent comments to clarify his earlier comments that “it is untrue that only Government endorsed candidates can be influential.” Well, if the position is truly independent as the constitution intended, and as the PAP has claimed, than how can the Govt. endorse any candidates? Should not the govt. stay out of it totally and not endorse or oppose any candidates?

Shan is also insinuating that if there is any disagreement, the courts will decide. Mr Shanmugam said: "If there are disagreements, as previously it has happened before, we can always get it resolved through the courts. When you have check and balance, you must expect that sometimes there might be differences in views. And if there are differences in views, we have a structure and system in place to deal with those differences." Since when has there been any check and balances in Singapore? How can the govt. and ministers win every case against them in the last few decades if there is really checks and balances? Checks and balances through the court system implies that there is an independent judiciary. This cannot be said of singapore’s judiciary, not by a long shot. I guess what Shan is telling all presidential candidates is that if you use your powers in a way that we don’t like. We will bring you to court and since we own the courts, we will win. It also implies an impeachment potential of any president that does not toe the line.

But for all of this to happen first, Phoney Tan has to lose. I don’t think this is possible, but judging from all the comments, its seems like the PAP is preparing for that eventuality. How can this be unless the PEC is truly independent?

As for other related comments:

Shan: And on the President being the voice of the people, Mr Shanmugam pointed out that all public acts, including public speech, can only be on the advice of the Cabinet.

How is this possible? You mean that went Nathan makes a speech at the OCS passing out parade, it has to be on the advice of the cabinet? What about speeches to the Chamber of commerce, or foreign ambassadors, etc. Do all of them have to be on the advice of the cabinet? I don’t think so. If this is the case, than how can Ong Teng Cheong make a speech critical of the govt., saying that they have stonewall him on his attempts to find out the amount of national reserves we have? Did OTC do this on the advice of the cabinet? What Shan needs to do is stop giving the cabinet powers that it never had or enjoyed in the first place, like the vetting of all presidential speeches.

Mr Shanmugam added the President must also be seen as impartial, in particular, on political debate and has to be above the fray on such matters, as he symbolises and represents the entire country.


Well, this statement contradicts his follow on statement that the govt. endorses candidates. How can the president be impartial if he is endorsed by the govt.? Also I recall that Nathan recently commented in a speech on FTs with “we must appreciate foreigners and welcome them…..”. The issue of FTs was huge in the last GE, and is still a very sore political point today among voters. Nathan has plainly entered the political debate on this FT issue on the side of pro-FT ala the PAP’s position. How is he than impartial? Shan should check all this first before he shoots his mouth of, his own president is already very partial on this political topic.

He added the President cannot publicly debate with the government because if he comments on social or political issues, the Office will be "dragged into politics".

However, the President has the power to veto the budgets of stat boards and other govt. orgs if he so desires or if he thinks there is a problem there. In addition to this, he has to publish his reasons for disputing the budget in the govt. gazette for all to read. This is what the law says. I cannot see how the PAP will not defend the budget to the public once it becomes gazetted. The whole world will know the reason why the president did not want to sign the budget. The PAP must and will use the media to present its side and spin it to its best ability. The debate therefore will go public whether Shan likes it or not. E.g. if the President refuses to sign the HDB’s budget and in his reason in the govt. gazette, he states the budget spends too much on housing for non singaporeans. Will the PAP let it slip? No, they will counter in the media with their POV. Right than, it has become a political issue, whether u like it or not. When u put someone in charge of large sums of money, whether u like it or not, sooner or later, the position will become political.

My conclusion is that far from clarifying the role and powers of the presidency, Shan has made it murkier and more confusing. Why? The reason is that he is trying to rein in the perceived power of the president and trying to persuade the public that really, this position is beholden to the cabinet dispite the fact that it is supposed to be independent. So, either, he is not sure that Phoney Tan will win, or recent happenings have cast doubt in the PAP higher echelon that once in power Phoney Tony might not do what they want, so they are setting the groundwork for power curtailment.
 

Confuseous

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
One word sums all this up - Scared.

OTC got 58%
GE 2011 got 60%
Only 11% "swing votes" needed to tilt.

Minus 3% loss from Patrick Tan issue
Minus 5% loss from those who have lost their fears of repentance, upgrading, no ang pows days before election. "nothing to lose" in other word.
Minus 2% for whatever reason - rising prices, cannot get correct school, unsuccessful HDB ballot, overcrowded public transport everyday

Only 1% missing.

Won't you be scared?
 

thefarside

Alfrescian
Loyal
Confuseous is right in that PAP is extremely worried and are trying hard to "manage expectations", by impressing on constitutional boundaries so that anyone who wants to campaign on a "I will fight the cheng hu" platform will be viewed negatively as a trouble maker by the electorate.

Currently, Tony Tan is still the favourite to win regardless of what this forum (or anybody else) thinks. 60% majority in the past election is nothing to be scoofed at because that's what their vote share is. PAP is now probably trying to assess the following situations

1. would anyone out of the three other Tans (TCB, TJS, TKL) be able to split the core 60% of the PAP majority
2. which of them would be able to split the 40% of the opposition vote share.

The best outcome for PAP would be TT vs TJS and TKL, which will ensure the victory for them. But alas its not so easy to disqualify TCB now. So the question remains on who else will they allow to contest beside TCB to split the oppo vote share.
 

Asian

Alfrescian
Loyal
I would say, TT vs TCB vs TKL is the best bet for PAP.
If TJS is in, majority of 40% may vote for him which is bad for PAP.
 

Seee3

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
If it is a 3-corner fight, the winner is definitely TT. However, if it is a 1 to 1 fight, there is a certain level of risk as a swing of 10% can happen. Maybe they find it hard to approve the 3rd candidate because of qualification and objection by certain people and the issue on TT's son really "caught them off guard" this time. Perhaps that explains why this silly guy is coming out to say all the wrong things.
 
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hairylee

Alfrescian
Loyal
It goes to show that even the government does not know the actual role of the elected President.
Nathan got a free ride for 12 years. He had the opportunity to define the EP role but he did nothing.
 

streetsmart73

Alfrescian (InfP)
Generous Asset
hi there


1. 2 words : clueless & useless.
2. just scrap the expensive and pointless portfolio!
 

bhoven

Alfrescian
Loyal
Confuseous is right in that PAP is extremely worried and are trying hard to "manage expectations", by impressing on constitutional boundaries so that anyone who wants to campaign on a "I will fight the cheng hu" platform will be viewed negatively as a trouble maker by the electorate.

Currently, Tony Tan is still the favourite to win regardless of what this forum (or anybody else) thinks. 60% majority in the past election is nothing to be scoofed at because that's what their vote share is. PAP is now probably trying to assess the following situations

1. would anyone out of the three other Tans (TCB, TJS, TKL) be able to split the core 60% of the PAP majority
2. which of them would be able to split the 40% of the opposition vote share.

The best outcome for PAP would be TT vs TJS and TKL, which will ensure the victory for them. But alas its not so easy to disqualify TCB now. So the question remains on who else will they allow to contest beside TCB to split the oppo vote share.

I don't think it is necessarily the case that they will get the same 60% support as in GE2011. The voting there was influenced by local and individual factors e.g fear of no upgrading, popularity of MP, angpows etc In the EP these are not present so it is difficult to say but going by the litmus test of number of national flags being flown this ND, the unhappiness over the recent PTC decision, there is a more than even chance that TT will not win esp if it is only against TCB. The hope is that TKL can be persuaded to withdraw as his participation will only split the anti TT votes. From the way the situation is unravelling, I would not be surprised if LHL pullS out another last minute rabbit like the apology the previous occasion...this rabbit will be the recomendations of the Ministerial Committee on Salaries.
 
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annexa

Alfrescian
Loyal
Not to forget every 7th month a lot of old people who will just tick the endorsed candidate will be going to heaven. Losing a uncertain amount of votes to the netherworld is quite a serious concern. Plus, the people are getting more pissed off. Last erection he got 60% because of "sorry" and also lousy opponents in the West.

TT will probably win slim against TCB 1 to 1. They will try to do a 3 corner fight. Using TJS to take oppo votes away from TCB is the best choice. This leaves TCB with some of the 60% and very little of the 40%. TT will win even if he gets just 45% votes. But if they approve TJS, they have to approve TKL. 4 corner fight may be good for TT, but the ugly shit that will come out and who knows what other skeletons the combined 3 may pull out is scarey for the elites. And they don't want TKL to contest. He makes the most noise, and he will come back 6 years later if he loses. TCB probably cannot because of age. It is putting them between a rock and a hard place.

Somehow, I have a feeling they are more afraid of TKL than TCB. Not because TKL is more likely to win against TT, but because TKL can pull an uglier punch than TCB.
 

Papsmearer

Alfrescian (InfP) - Comp
Generous Asset
Not to forget every 7th month a lot of old people who will just tick the endorsed candidate will be going to heaven. Losing a uncertain amount of votes to the netherworld is quite a serious concern. Plus, the people are getting more pissed off. Last erection he got 60% because of "sorry" and also lousy opponents in the West.

TT will probably win slim against TCB 1 to 1. They will try to do a 3 corner fight. Using TJS to take oppo votes away from TCB is the best choice. This leaves TCB with some of the 60% and very little of the 40%. TT will win even if he gets just 45% votes. But if they approve TJS, they have to approve TKL. 4 corner fight may be good for TT, but the ugly shit that will come out and who knows what other skeletons the combined 3 may pull out is scarey for the elites. And they don't want TKL to contest. He makes the most noise, and he will come back 6 years later if he loses. TCB probably cannot because of age. It is putting them between a rock and a hard place.

Somehow, I have a feeling they are more afraid of TKL than TCB. Not because TKL is more likely to win against TT, but because TKL can pull an uglier punch than TCB.

I wonder if all this rhetoric going around is being hyped up by the PAP, and later to be used as an excuse by the PEC to disqualify candidates. The PEC can always say that certain of the candidates do not understand the role of the president and are confrontational, so, therefore, they are disqualified. I feel the PAP cannot take the chance that TT will lose. They already disqualifed Andrew Kuan before when they had 67% of the popular vote, because they were afraid he can defeat Nathan. Now drop to only 60%, they would be even more sure of it now.
 

Papsmearer

Alfrescian (InfP) - Comp
Generous Asset
I don't think it is necessarily the case that they will get the same 60% support as in GE2011. The voting there was influenced by local and individual factors e.g fear of no upgrading, popularity of MP, angpows etc In the EP these are not present so it is difficult to say but going by the litmus test of number of national flags being flown this ND, the unhappiness over the recent PTC decision, there is a more than even chance that TT will not win esp if it is only against TCB. The hope is that TKL can be persuaded to withdraw as his participation will only split the anti TT votes. From the way the situation is unravelling, I would not be surprised if LHL pullS out another last minute rabbit like the apology the previous occasion...this rabbit will be the recomendations of the Ministerial Committee on Salaries.

In regards, to the post of President.I think people perceive it as a position that has less impact on their lives, eg. a president cannot threaten to withhold upgrades to their estate, decrease GST, etc. The people may feel more free to vote their hearts rather than their wallets. In that case, they will vote anything that is not PAP.
 

Papsmearer

Alfrescian (InfP) - Comp
Generous Asset
It goes to show that even the government does not know the actual role of the elected President.
Nathan got a free ride for 12 years. He had the opportunity to define the EP role but he did nothing.

Actually, he did exactly what he was told to do by the Lees. Which was to shut up and sign anything they ask him to sign, and quietly collect his money.
 

Papsmearer

Alfrescian (InfP) - Comp
Generous Asset
Confuseous is right in that PAP is extremely worried and are trying hard to "manage expectations", by impressing on constitutional boundaries so that anyone who wants to campaign on a "I will fight the cheng hu" platform will be viewed negatively as a trouble maker by the electorate.

Currently, Tony Tan is still the favourite to win regardless of what this forum (or anybody else) thinks. 60% majority in the past election is nothing to be scoofed at because that's what their vote share is. PAP is now probably trying to assess the following situations

1. would anyone out of the three other Tans (TCB, TJS, TKL) be able to split the core 60% of the PAP majority
2. which of them would be able to split the 40% of the opposition vote share.

The best outcome for PAP would be TT vs TJS and TKL, which will ensure the victory for them. But alas its not so easy to disqualify TCB now. So the question remains on who else will they allow to contest beside TCB to split the oppo vote share.

Right now the PAP is spending huge money doing secret polls and surveys. If it looks really bad for TT in the polls (and this could be a very real possibility given the general groundswell of dissatisfaction during the last the GE, and recent developments regarding Patrick), the PEC will be directed to disqualify all the non PAP candidates. Whatever flimsy excuse will be used. The PAP will not take the chance of a president they cannot control. Can you imagine if TKL was president, he would agree to sign the bill raising the minister salaries to millions? Think not.
 
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