Qualitative Assessment prior to poll - PAP, WP, NSP, SPP, RP & SDP

[scroobal]

Here are little snippets of the various parties and their performance. Will start with smallest.

RP
- its a ship that began sinking long before nomination day. Nothing to do with PAP. KJ is not cut out for party politics where members and membership support are key. It is a personality issue and it can't be taken out from the DNA. In the end a cobbled team. As an example - the undergrad from his team had no clue, no perspective and was completely lost. This guy brought up University hostel allocation policies. I am sure even the Undergrads staying in hostels were bewildered.

SPP
- unfortunately a one man party and that is the legacy that Chiam will leave behind. The party will fold if no seats are not retained or gained. Chiam was fabulous for this country and kept the candle burning. He will forever remain as the people's champion.

SDP
- impressive logistics, stage design and certainly the best but not sure how this will relate to votes. Their candidates except for the Sembawang crew were head and shoulders above the rest including many in the PAP who are designated for his political appointments. Do note that None of this new candidates followed SDP usual themes and certainly did not apply tactics nor adopted measures for which SDP have been associated with. VW, TJS, ML, AT were pleasure to listen to and do have bright future in Singapore politics. It is likely that they will eventually leave to form a new party. Their DNA and SDP's are not compatible. Alternatively Chee's forms a new party and releases his usual associates who are not the sharpest tools in the shed. If SDP carries on its present course, it will the party for rent.

NSP
- its history will drag this party down. It cannot operate with puppet masters hiding in the shadows. It too had some impressive candidates with Nicole, Tony, Hazel and Jeanette but poor planning was main theme that emerged. My sense is to let Sebastian run his own masa masa show while the rest form another party. I won't be surprised that they merge with SDP new entrants as they seem to have similar themes and approaches.

WP
- it is now a well established trait of LTK - rigour, discipline and solid party structure. Solid and well prepared candidates but power and influence is very confined. Some of the old guards are upset that they have not been fielded and it will take its toll. Pritam tuned out to be real find. It is however not a party for a vibrant individual. Its brand name however will continue to carry the highest value. It will continue to have th broadest appeal and excellent grassroots supporters who are not pro PAP. Just look at their rally turnout.

PAP
- badly planned campaign by its own standards
- 3 majors boo boos - (1) Candidate screening Tin Pei Ling, Foo Mee Har and Steve Tan. (2) the Gay agenda issue - it is likely to sink VW and team but it also dragged PAP in terms of image and votes. Not a good gamble. (3) Lim Hwee Hua serious allegation about Hougang accounts. It backfired when LTK returned with an excellent rebuttal dragging a Mah Bow Tan, the accountant general, parliament and the MP herself.
- PAP MPs habit of calling the police or lodging police reports has turned out to be an albatross around their neck. Apparently for the PAP - lodging a police report and pressing charges are 2 separate issues.
- Internal strife surfaced to unprecedented level. WKS dragged in, GY support questionable, a clear Chinese vs English factional rivalry is surfacing.
- too many consultants, advisors seem to make matters worse.

Overall Assessment
Signs are that more quality candidates will emerge. Many are too busy to form and run parties. A new party with Liberal format is expected to be formed and this will attract the new well performing candidates. They have tasted blood and it will no go away. This group is expected to compete directly with WP for profile. Watch for participation by professionals - lawyers, doctors, technocrats and ex-civil servants

RP will go under. No hope in its present form. NSP will go back to its old ways. SDP unfortunately will continue to drink from the NGO chalice and the money and junkets to overseas political events will be too strong a temptation to give up. Local politics does not attract enough funding. Might continue to rent party seats to engage in participate in GEs.

PAP will have undergo massive change, break the hold of the cadres to remain relevant. Despite its 50 plus years hold on this country, respect is not a term associated with the Party. Contrived support with leaches, packed lunches and chartered buses are the image associated with the PAP. It will continue to dominate the political landscape for the following reasons;
1) using the govt machinary to identify and nuture talent as a monopoly
2) use of carrots and sticks to control party politics
3) use of various rules and regulations such a gerrymandering, election obstacles to continue to maintain a distinct advantage in parliament and politics
4) control of the press
5) control over Peoples Association to pay for grassroots cultivation and support using taxpayers money and to indirectly fund its campaign.

 

[sense]

Impressive assessment, with thanks.

 

[halsey02]

Good assessment.

 

[Char_Azn]

SPP, RP, SDA: Agree with SPP and RP. I think you miss out SDA which like RP probably should also go the way of the Dodo.

NSP: I don't agree with NSP. I think a few bad decisions were made in regards to the fielding of candidates in the various wards, but overall the last few years proved that they can attract talent and can grow from there.

SDP: The future of SDP very much depends on whether CSJ can control himself. If he doesn't do anything stupid, doesn't go on an open campaign about human rights especially via illegal means, it should still be ok. If not, your scenario of the party splitting is going to be very real

WP: The party has been growing under Low and will continue to grow from there. Some pple may not like to hear this but kicking out JBJ is the best thing to happen to WP. I believe given enough time, they will grow to be the dominant opposition party in SG. Whether pple like his method or not, LTK knows what he is doing and he is doing a damn fine job. If we can eliminate the smaller parties, keep themselves from splitting, give them another 10-20 yrs, they should be able to rival PAP

PAP definitely got the living daylights scared out of them and are likely to evolve and change to a more relevant model from here on.

 

[aurvandil]

Glad that we are now using qualitative assessments.

Prior to the past 9 days, I had thought that the PAP would get between 55% to 60% of the popular vote.

Now I am firmly convinced that the PAP share of the popular vote will sink to below 55%.

This now puts us into the statistical no man's land where the election results are too close to call.

I was listening to George Yeo last night and I found it interesting. His speech sounded almost like a concession speech. I was stumped by his admission that there are problems within the PAP and that he and his team were going to "reform" the PAP.

Coupled with the fact that his team didn't book tables for a victory celebration, I think we are going to see WP take Aljunied by a fairly large margin. I would hazard that WP might poll as high as 60%.

On the other GRCS, it is logically inconsistent to say that the popular support is in a statistical no man's land while at the same time make a prediction of the outcome. I think we are going to have a nail biting finish all the way to the end. Beyond the personalities, I would use P65 concentration as a guide to which GRCs are likely to see a breakthrough. The higher the P65 concentration, the greater the chance.

Also I wouldn't say that the "quieter" GRCs are "safe". This is because the msm try to influence the outcome by shining the spotlight selectively. A GRC could therefore be "quiet" simply because the ground is not so good and the msm want to reduce opposition chances.

If you watch the way the election has played out, this has become an election of PAP vs Opposition Coalition. Opposition supporters of NSP in Aljunied for example are likely to give their votes to WP. They are unlikely to say oh ... NSP is not running in Aljunied so let's vote PAP.

I agree with Scroobal's assessment of a new party emerging. The coming out of the doctors in support of SDP is a dead giveaway of who is now standing behind SDP. And you of course know all along who has been covertly providing assistance to NSP to help remove a "problem". Even if he survives the election, his poll ratings would have fallen to a low enough level to nudge him into permanent retirement.

 

[patrickv]

Letter of Termination

Mr. Char_Azn dog,

Please take note that the PAP Internet Brigade will be closing down on 8th May 2011. We trust that you have acquired excellent porlumpar skills while working for us and will take this kungfu to your next employer.

With regrets we need to cease our operations as WP/SPP/NSP/RP/SDP (delete as appropriate) has taken over our constituency. In line with the OSA, we (try but cannot 100% guarantee) will keep your dog identity secret.
This decision is final. You will be paid what is equivalent to a dog’s 2 weeks worth of dog food as your severance package.

We wish you the best in your future. May I also secretly pray that you will not be reincarnated as a PAP dog in your next life (very siah sway you know).

Sincerely,
Head, PAP Internet Brigade Department

 

[BuiKia]

Wall of text but as long as it is from scroobal, many will say good.

who you support SB?

 

[SpareTyre]

There is a huge gaping space for a liberal party to establish itself. For a moment, it looked like SDP or RP might be the ones. Still a chance really, you learn to never say never in politics, but if they don't get their act together, there will be a new party. Not that the new party is bound to succeed or survive, but there's obviously a huge talent pool and eventually (sooner rather than later) a huge vote bank in this space.

It has been a close election. Could be 15 seats for the opposition, it could be 1. Based on very limited information, conversations with the people around me, the gut feel leans towards 1.

PAP pulls a filthy Republican trick - PM/MM suckers S'pore with the good cop, bad cop routine which might have succeeded in raising the PAP from the dead in Aljunied.

Yesterday night, I was going through election developments in a daze because, with 24 hours to go to Polling Day, the ground sentiment seemed to have swung in PAP's favour. Going into the election period, the mood probably favoured at least 10 opposition wins. But coming out, we might actually see only Hougang remaining in opposition hands.


The surmise is that the Singapore electorate may have fallen for one of the oldest tricks on the political book, albeit one immaculately executed - The Good Cop, Bad Cop Routine! This is commonly used in US foreign policy and domestic politics...the best example of this would be the Bush-Cheney act in the 2004 presidential elections. Cheney played Bad Cop to devastating effect, taking out Kerry and cleared the way for Bush to win in the starring role of Good Cop.

We have just witnessed the Singapore version in the last 3 days.

First, you have Bad Cop LKY come out blundering with threats, blackmail and his usual bully-boy ways. Now, this scares an estimated 15-20% of the swing voters into going back into the arms of the PAP but it also alienates an approximately equal or slightly smaller percentage of voters against the PAP. So zero-minimal net loss for opposition

The second step is Good Cop LSL coming out and saying sorry. This brings back the LKY-alienated voters while keeping the fearful voters in the PAP fold. The result is a huge net gain in the swing votes. What aids the Lees is that the electorate does not know which cop is more powerful - is it the Bad Cop or the Good Cop? You are confused, you are uncertain, and in that uncertainty is when you are most susceptible.

Hours later, it is polling day. You cast your vote. What has happened, the Good Cop Bad Cop routine, is still in your subconscious. On top of that, a barrage of information and noise from both PAP and opposition. Its too much information for anyone. In the end, the opposition keep their hard core votes, the PAP keep their votes, and again the decisive swing voters go to PAP. Most people who fall for it will never know they've been suckered. A few will slowly realise it.

The electorate wakes up on Sunday, and everyone is amazed that the PAP has won 86-1.

Impossible they think, the ground was so bitter! How did the PAP perform a near clean sweep?

Welcome to LKY's Singapore....where everyone dances to the old man's tune. The will of the Singapore people has just been thwarted by the old man's infinitely vaster political experience, guile, and bag of dirty tricks.

If this information comes too late, ah well, just don't fall for it next time. No doubt if the ground is still as bitter in 5 years time, we'll see more dirty tricks. It may be the Good Cop, Bad Cop again, it may be the Crying PM, it may be any of the many more sleight of hands in LKY's bag of dirty tricks thats part of LSL's inheritance.

If it is 86-1, god bless Singaporeans.

Sure wish I'm wrong on this one

 

[Rogue Trader]

You will be paid what is equivalent to a dog’s 2 weeks worth of dog food as your severance package.

is it 2 human weeks or dog weeks?

 

[aurvandil]

If it is 86-1, god bless Singaporeans.

The PAP is going into the last phase of the campaign projecting a false image of strength of confidence. I think the intent is to intimidate the fence sitters to go to the side of PAP. This plays on the psychology that no one likes to be in the "loser" camp.

Will it work or will it backfire?

 

[tanwahtiu]

When PAP formed the gahment on nomination day, 50% of the voters were angry and disappointed they don't get a chance to vote and for past 20-30 years they kept missing their chances to votes. Now these capped voters can vote this time they will run wild, and happy like a toad, and convert these 50% voters I think you will have a new gahment on May 7.

GRC system has back fired for PAP as it is an unfair system that takes away every citizen rights to vote in every election. Whatever Q assessment is a make shift tent only.

 

[ahleebabasingaporethief]

For real accurate assessment, go no furtherthan PM's apologies.

For him to apologize tells political watchers that the ground is not only not sweet; but not sweet at all.

This is very telling. Come May 7th night; we will know.

 

[rise96]

ASSESSMENT OF PAP'S KEY TACTICAL BLUNDERS
6 May 2011 Friday


BLUNDER 1:
To sing the same old election tune with "top down" language (ie. "we will take care of you, you better vote for us" and "we know what is best for you"). Old election tune worked for decades, but not this time. Whoever is the 'spin doctor' did not do a proper job. Instead, PAP should have focused on what measures it will take as a result of, or arising from, the feedback of the people (ie. "bottom up" language).


BLUNDER 2:
Likely overreliance on traditional old media (TV, newspapers, lorry, pamphlets). Utterly inept handling of new social media (eg. facebook, twitter).


BLUNDER 3:
Poor choice of candidates: Tin Pei Ling (lack substance), Foo Mee Har (rumor-mill), Steven Tan (last min dropout), & Chan Chun Sing (persona doesn't quite fit). Being put in a GRC aggravates the perception.


BLUNDER 4:
Poor handling of Steve Tan dropout. No satisfactory explanation. Replacement Dr Chia Shi Lu made things worse because (i) Chia as backup actually looked quite decent and led to question why TPL was ahead of Chia; (ii) Chia's sudden entry to walkover as MP overnight made mockery of GRC system.


BLUNDER 5:
Vivian's "gay agenda" question backfired. It was obviously a lowblow.


BLUNDER 6:
Lim Hwee Hua's allegation about "messy" Hougang accounts was a disaster. Her attempt to clarify was more a retraction than a clarification, because her quotes in newspapers and interview on TV were obviously conflicting. Made herself look worse, and LTK better.


BLUNDER 7:
Tactically, public apology 3 days before Polling Day was a huge gamble. It may garner sympathy votes. However, the apology (i) appears insincere because it is last minute; and (ii) the apology supports Opposition's argument that opposition voice in Parliament will make PAP react.

BLUNDER 8:
Last minute reactive measures announced (eg. raising HDB loan qualf limit to $10,000) are self-damaging. Reactive announcements support the Opposition theme that an opposition voice will spur PAP to do good things for the people. (ie. Teo Soh Lung "The Opposition are already in Parliament")


BLUNDER 9:
Don't cry in front of camera. Seriously bad move. If accomplished actor like Jack Neo cannot convince people, neither should politicians attempt to try.


BLUNDER 10:
Lack of alignment in the spin. Different leaders say different things. There are many examples of this. Cannon Fodder for Opposition.

BLUNDER 11:
Self-destruction language used. Phrases like "live and repent" and "Singapore will be in trouble" all backfired. Again, Spin Doctor did not do a proper job.


BLUNDER 12:
No compelling reason given by PAP to justify its dominance in Parliament. Bare assertions that Opposition will take over government, or that it is somehow better to have PAP in total control, or Opposition will get in the way, are simply insufficient to convince people. Unlike Gen O, the new Gen X and Gen Y are educated and understand principles of Parliamentary Democracy. The imbalance in Parliament is by far the weakest spot in PAP's armor. PAP has to be able to justify it in some way. The Opposition's entire theme of "having a voice for people in Parliament" is aimed precisely against this weakest spot. PAP cannot simply ignore or use bare assertions to cover this weakest spot. It was foolhardy.


CONCLUSION:
No matter what the result of this elections, the PAP will need to reinvent itself and transform moving forward. If it remains stuck in the 'Gen O' mould of rhetoric, it will lose political appeal, if not already.

1. When PAP addresses its people, the PAP must change from the 'top down' approach to become a 'bottom up' approach. PAP must be able to link its policies to the feedback from the people.

2. When PAP addresses the opposition, the PAP must be prepared to be receptive to alternative and opposing viewpoints. It must show it is able to combine thesis and anti-thesis to achieve synthesis. It cannot continue to simply ignore or block alternative views.

The good news however, is that after these elections, the political climate in Singapore will change. Public perception has altered to such an extent I do not think it remains possible that the issues raised can simply be ignored or laid to rest after the elections. The level of public outcry has not been seen since the NKF saga, and to ignore these issues will risk civil unrest.

 

[Rimururu]

The SDP has improved. You know they are doing it right when they can attract people like Tan Jee Say, Ang Yong Guan, Michelle Lee and Vincent. These four are just splendid, I can guess that PAP must be longing for the four of them. Chee has grown wiser, he just becomes the passenger while letting Vincent be the driver. It has paid off well, even 154 has to acknowledge that Holland-Bukit Timah GRC might be a 'hot' battle. Such statement was not even mentioned during Nomination Day.

The NSP has messed up big time due to GMS poor planning. He had worked the grounds of Tampines for a few years, only to give it up and focus on Nicole Seah. Perhaps GMS read too much of David vs Goliath and thought he could slay GCT in his own GRC without knowing that MBT is an easier target to slay. GMS, instead, let Nicole Seah be the attention and did not do well in his job as a Secretary-General to attract attention onto him. Not to forget, he did not direct attention to CCK GRC where the two geniuses (Tony & Hazel) are of great substance. I am sure GMS has a lot of answering to do if NSP is seatless by May 8.

I have to disagree with you on the SPP part. Yes, SPP is riding on Chiam's reputation as a people's champion and clean fighter. But I went to the rally and I felt that Benjamin Pwee also has substance in his own rights. He also got one of the louder cheers than Sin Kek Thong. Wilfred is also another one that has potential. I am sure SPP knows that there will be a day in the near future that they can no longer rely on Chiam everytime. SPP, largely due to Chiam, has appealed to not just the Chinese, but the Malays and Indians as well. Probably due to Chiam often using English as his language 24/7.

WP has been solid so far. CSM is one of the greatest catch and so is Pritam Singh. LTK has been solid in his rebuttals against Lim Hwee Hua of other PAP MPs. There has been no slip-ups (including all Opposition parties) and the people I know who have attended their rallies have been very impressed and are confirmed voting for WP even after cooling-off day. Sylvia Lim has made many good points, along with Lee Li Lian. CSM did well at this final speech by playing the patriotism card by showing his pink IC and red passport, which is going to be a hit. If Geroge Yeo loses, he should not blame himself but instead, slap both MM Lee and Lim Hwee Hua for sabotaging his campaign.

SDA has been the biggest joke of this GE. From growing gardens to many other ridiculous ideas, it is even worse-off than RP who at least, had given a few good ideas. And it seems to me that Desmond Lim is more interested in framing and sabotaging Lee Li Lian in his campaign than to tackle issues. I doubt any WP supporter will call and force Desmond to withdraw, because it only makes WP look bad. It makes me think that it is Desmond Lim himself trying to push down the WP. No wonder Chiam left the Alliance.

 

[Forvendet]

NSP logistics look weak and overloaded, especially after the RP defections make them quantitatively the biggest opposition party in this election. SDP look sleek as usual, somehow the most glamorous looking regardless of who's bankrupted or not. WP have outdone their illustrious predecessors this time in the practical and political sense that matter. Their 8 nights worth of rally crowds probably totaled 2 to 300,000. It should translate to 2 GRCs with Aljunied a certainty plus one other.WP should also retain Hougang and probably win one more other SMC. If my estimate turns out correct, the NCMP scheme is rendered redundant. It'd be the beginning of a two-party system in Singapore.

 

[clairvoyant]

WP NSP & SDP all became parties for ex-PAPies to join and then leave, same as the past but even more so now. I can count that Steve Chia GMS Chia Ti Lik were the earlier batch of ex-PAPies joining opposition, now you see even more examples.

Elitism bankrupts Singapore and both PAP & oppositions are making the same mistake.

PAP did one big round of that and fell flat on their face, opposition will do yet another round of the same, but a smaller round because there is actually nothing much left of Singapore by the time PAP is finished, the little bit of Singapore left for opposition will be finished even deeper and faster by the post-PAP govt which are today's opposition.

Inevitable result.

 

[Cestbon]

This thread are the most quality so far. No bad word(name calling) all just solid debate and summary.
I like it to be this way.

From my point of view RP & SDA will never rise again after the election.So far the only good opposition are from WP & NSP. They have good speaker and quality candidate. PAP will win majority Pailiament seat 50~75 seat.
After election PAP may have internal conflict because losing so much in the history. Actually there is already 2 team in PAP, one team consist of LKY & LHL and his cronie another group that silent waiting for LKY to RIP.

 

[BBSEE]

NSP logistics look weak and overloaded, especially after the RP defections make them quantitatively the biggest opposition party in this election. SDP look sleek as usual, somehow the most glamorous looking regardless of who's bankrupted or not. WP have outdone their illustrious predecessors this time in the practical and political sense that matter. Their 8 nights worth of rally crowds probably totaled 2 to 300,000. It should translate to 2 GRCs with Aljunied a certainty plus one other.WP should also retain Hougang and probably win one more other SMC. If my estimate turns out correct, the NCMP scheme is rendered redundant. It'd be the beginning of a two-party system in Singapore.

WP message last night spoke of 2 things.

1. the NCMP is a joke, Sylvia Lim told the crowd that the government bodies and agencies were specifically told not to answer any queries by a NCMP since they represent no constituencies and by that extension no Singaporeans

2. The PAP knows only which precinct (about 3000 votes) supports them or their opponents as the votes are counted in a decentralised manner. The 3000 votes comes from a specific block of flats and when the numbers are revealed, they have a good idea of which precinct translates into strong or weak support for them. However they do not know which specific block or which voter voted what and who.

 

[patrickv]

WP message last night spoke of 2 things.

1. the NCMP is a joke, Sylvia Lim told the crowd that the government bodies and agencies were specifically told not to answer any queries by a NCMP since they represent no constituencies and by that extension no Singaporeans

2. The PAP knows only which precinct (about 3000 votes) supports them or their opponents as the votes are counted in a decentralised manner. The 3000 votes comes from a specific block of flats and when the numbers are revealed, they have a good idea of which precinct translates into strong or weak support for them. However they do not know which specific block or which voter voted what and who.

lhl never say sorry about gerrymandering.

 

[Forvendet]

I feel sorry for the sad loss of his brother and chief helper, but GMS seems to let it derail his campaign and the media hijack it into a Nicole Seah campaign. I have nothing against Nicole, in fact I love it as a good experience for a future good MP. But let's face it, it's not possible to beat GCT in Marine Parade whether he has TPL or a pussy cat in his team. The focus on a contest to win should be in Tampines against MBT. The deployment of candidates in respective teams already look a mess, unlike the WP deployment looking focused, purposeful and meaningful. Anyway too late now, let's await the results.