Qualitative Assessment prior to poll - PAP, WP, NSP, SPP, RP & SDP

[Force 136]

How come no one saw the Hand of God in this whole matter?

The PAP has been weighed and found wanting. Their empire will be given to others.....

Nothing can change the Hand of God. Those who attempt it will be crushed by fate...

"who knows if you have been preserved for this moment in time? if you do not help, help will still come from another source, but you will be destroyed.....

" anyone remember this quote?

 

[aurvandil]

But let's face it, it's not possible to beat GCT in Marine Parade whether he has TPL or a pussy cat in his team.

If this was the old Marine Parade GRC, this would be true. This new Marine Parade GRC I am not so sure.

It is not true that Marine Parade GRC has not been contested since 1992. Many "shit and crap" constituiences have been very keenly contested as recently as GE 2006. These gave as much as 70% to the Opposition.

Hence the iconic Marine Parade areas (e.g. near Parkway, Marine Terrace) will overwhelmingly vote GCT. The "unknown" parts of MP GRC (eg red light Joo Chiat area, McPherson, lower Geylang brothel area) will however overwhelmingly go the way of NSP.

This should be an interesting contest.

Side note is that anything below 60% can be considered a victory. GCT will no longer have the claim of being "very popular" and will be asked to go into permanent retirement.

 

[Porfirio Rubirosa]

SDA - sorry to say but that chap desmond CMI...heart may be in the rt place...but he is the oppo of the old...got heart but no brains n competency...

RP - like i said in another thread...KJ just not cut out for local politics n makes for a poor leader...note grp after grp split fm him...his speeches n press conferences lack impact...n unfortunately for him he even appeared to choke when reciting the pledge at the last rally...sld set up an independent think thank instead...maybe rope in gomez...

SPP - got to respect chiam for pushing it even in his frail state...sld get quite alot of sympathy votes for that...hope to c baldy benjamin in parlaiment as an ncmp at the v least...as for lina, too aunty...but wif grd sentiment still dicey u can never tell still may just get in ahead of sitoh but looks like a tough fight...

SDP - nto sure whether CSJ has really changed?...TNP's conquer n divide tactics were a low blow indeed trying to pit TJS, AYG n ML agst CSJ...but then again wif CSJ u never can tell interesting to c where they go fm here...wld definitely like to c the likes of VW, TJS, AYG, ML in parliament as NCMPs at the v least...on balance they hv performed pretty well...as an aside i wld be curious to know Ngiam Tong Dow's views on TJS' economic plan...going by his latest book, looks like Ngiam may hv some sympathy wif TJS' views as opposed to hatchet man Augustine Tan...i found BT's Vikram Khana's assessment of TJS' economic plan to be at least more balanced...also i must say that i am pleasantly surprised to see that even ST' Peh Shing huei in 6/5 ST stated "...In such an atmosphere, stronger parties, such as the WP and the SDP, were able to distinguish themselves from the likes of RP and SDA..."

NSP - credit to GMS...he has won me over wif all that he has done over this period...perhaps he may hv got some strategy n tactics wrong but then again we do not know the whole pic fm the outside...think he did the best he cld all things considered...PAP looked to hv been concerned so much so that it appears TNP roped in to do a hatchet job on Spencer Ng(what i found curious n strange is that notwithstanding the complaint made agst him to the school n MOE, Spencer was allowed back to teach in another school as a temp afew yrs later?!...smear or not??)...anyways wld be nice to GMS, Tony, Hazel, Jeanette n Nicole in parliament as NCMPs at the v least...

WP - first class campaign by LTK n Slyvia...kudos to them...they seem to hv a run a well oiled tight focused disciplined political election team...did not make any significant boo boos...played on all their strenghs n played down on their weaknesses...really liked Pritam n Gerald...Angela n Lee Lian quite fiesty n passionate as well...best plays - being HR director to GY...n citing art. 40 of the constitution whereby zainul can still be appointed speaker regardless fo whether he is an MP...fingers crossed aljunied shall fall...v tough fight but there appears to hope...

PAP - think Scroobal has covered most of the major pts...quite surprised FMH managed to go under the radar notwithstanding the virulent attack in cyberspace...harry n GCT hv really been liabilities this time rd...so too to a certain extent that overzealous newbie MG Chan...overall i wld say LHL has run a pretty average lacklustre campaign...no oomph to speak off...even his apparent mea culpa looked abit disingenuous n contrived...all those previous walkovers may now come back to haunt PAP...perhaps PAP sld hv instead leveraged on their bevy of chiobus to attract the male electorate to their rallies, just going by that pic of sexy hot sophie willocq n qiu qiu in white in 6/5 ST, as they say sex sells!!...let me also say that GY's supposed epiphany at the last rally yesterday also has abit of a hallow ring to it going by this quote of his:"...But for some, they will say I'm unhappy with the PAP. And they are prepared to be reckless(with their vote)..."...georgie u cant hv it all ways!!...another thing i hv noted which does not seem to hv been commented on is the apparent role of Ho Ching in this campaign for PAP...she seemed to be always by LHL's side...in white wif the pap badge...i wonder how much influence she had?...also i found LHL's reply in his facebook dramarama to a chap who asked him whether Ho Ching wanted LHL to take part in politics...to be illuminating...as LHL apparently replied..."she had no choice, and neither did I"... ??...can PAP change for the better, after this supposed "watershed" election?...time will tell...wld really love to a split sometime down the road when harry finally passes on...

finally...2 interesting comments...

"Whatever the results, this election will make a big impact not only on the people but on our Prime Minister and maybe...losing a few seats and afew percentage points will help him in Cabinet and maybe in talking to his father..." Peter Lim former editor of ST

"My hunch is that this has to do with the fact that the middle ground has been squeezed mainly by a sense of cynicism that is not irrational. It arises from the fact that the government has in sense become more dogmatic..." Cherian George

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

A new party with Liberal format is expected to be formed and this will attract the new well performing candidates. They have tasted blood and it will no go away. This group is expected to compete directly with WP for profile. Watch for participation by professionals - lawyers, doctors, technocrats and ex-civil servants

There has been talk of such a party for some time. The present parties are each attracting their own talent but the talent is scattered. Some of that talent has even turned out to be scatter-brained. The WP has the highest concentration of talent but its passive approach and solitude in-between elections will be a turn off for many thinking individuals.

Many more people will now start to come forward because they see people in similar positions have already done so received very positive impact. No defamation suits, no arrests, no civil disobedience and protests, so the fear factor has been reduced.

SDP will not go back to protests. If they try that there will be a split in the party. It will also ruin everything they accomplished this elections.

RP will survive but as a one-man show. It is will not survive on merit but just on the history of JBJ and the fact that Kenneth still can bring in scatter-brained individuals here and there despite being widely known as a jerk.

NSP will be in a state of confusion because they grew so quickly, and then the entire party became the Nicole Seah Party. They don't know yet how to handle this. Its like a teenager who can suddenly ejaculate. What to do with the new ability? If they find a way to manage it they will survive and even grow. But yes, there are also people in NSP or assoc with NSP who have a very different agenda and it remains to be seen whether there will be a negative influence. The dubious characters in NSP are still around and they are the biggest threat.

WP will continue to be the strongest party provided its leadership remains disciplined, as I think it would. Next election, WP will still be the most credible and largest party, provided no serious mistakes are made over next 5 years.

SDA is gonner and rubbish. Desmond Lim widely seen as the real spoiler that he truly is. Their candidates speak nonsense and the electorate knows that. No one is fooled.

 

[myfoot123]

The ideal Situation on polling day:

Worker Party win Aljunied & Kallang GRC
Worker Party retained Hougang GRC
SPP win Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC
NSP win - Tampines/Marine Parade GRC
SDP win - Holland Bukit Timah GRC
Potong Pasir - let Seetoh win since the resident there took the opposition flag for too long
so that SPP can focus on running a big town like Bishan-Toapayoh
However if Potong Pasir prefer SPP it proves how closely knitted the people are with SPP - a loyal citizens Singaporeans should learn from PP people.

The above scenario reflects SINGAPOREAN DREAM and hope it will crystalise on after polling day.

 

[blahblah]

It should translate to 2 GRCs with Aljunied a certainty plus one other.WP should also retain Hougang and probably win one more other SMC.

I really hope WP wins as what you had assessed. My take is a sure win with Hougang and Aljunied, but quite uncertain of the rest.

 

[blahblah]

SDA is the weakest of the opposition parties, and I seriously doubt they can win any seats. However, I hope they can cut the winning percentage of the PAP in Pasir Ris Punggol GRC.

 

[myfoot123]

SDA is the weakest of the opposition parties, and I seriously doubt they can win any seats. However, I hope they can cut the winning percentage of the PAP in Pasir Ris Punggol GRC.

In this day and age, nothing can be certain. Besides, Teo Ser Luck make a crown of himself during his unflattering speech.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

I agree with Scroobal's assessment of a new party emerging. The coming out of the doctors in support of SDP is a dead giveaway of who is now standing behind SDP. And you of course know all along who has been covertly providing assistance to NSP to help remove a "problem". Even if he survives the election, his poll ratings would have fallen to a low enough level to nudge him into permanent retirement.

The lack of Tampines coverage is surprising. Let see whether the "problem" goes away. I hope "it" does. After all "it" was not even in the latest CEC -- and no one talked about it. Truly remarkable!

 

[blahblah]

In this day and age, nothing can be certain. Besides, Teo Ser Luck make a crown of himself during his unflattering speech.

True that nothing can be certain. If SDA wins, lagi best. Show the incumbent ruling party to wake up and don't treat us citizens like fools.

 

[halsey02]

The biggest upset will be RP wins AMK GRC...mee siam mai mum will eat his mee siam with hum...

 

[myfoot123]

The biggest upset will be RP wins AMK GRC...mee siam mai mum will eat his mee siam with hum...

Upset for PAP lah, where got upset for the people. We can't wait to rejoice. It is like shoving a durian down PAP loose ass.

 

[@rmadill0]

The biggest upset will be RP wins AMK GRC...mee siam mai mum will eat his mee siam with hum...

Ultra unlikely to happen. RP does not have what it takes at the moment to take down AMK.

 

[Debonerman]

The biggest upset will be RP wins AMK GRC...mee siam mai mum will eat his mee siam with hum...

RP wins AMK GRC I give you my pinky.......Yakuza honour! Honto!

 

[aurvandil]

The lack of Tampines coverage is surprising. Let see whether the "problem" goes away. I hope "it" does. After all "it" was not even in the latest CEC -- and no one talked about it. Truly remarkable!

The understanding was that Tampines and most of NSP would be left alone if NSP helped out with the "problem". The TNP campaign on Spencer Ng was started by elements loyal to the "problem". Notice it was not picked up by the rest of the msm as it died very quickly. The jouranlists who started it can expect to join those in the purge after the elections.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

The biggest upset will be RP wins AMK GRC...mee siam mai mum will eat his mee siam with hum...

If RP wins AMK, I chop off my right hand.

 

[aurvandil]

If you look at the demos of the redrawn AMK, AMK GRC should buck the trend and poll above 70%. This will allow LHL to have the "popular" mandate which GCT once wore.

 

[Windsor]

Thanks to all comments - good thread and provide food for thought.

 

[Rimururu]

The biggest upset will be RP wins AMK GRC...mee siam mai mum will eat his mee siam with hum...

RP wins? I dare say there is a higher chance of SDP winning at Sembawang GRC.

 

[Forvendet]

I really hope WP wins as what you had assessed. My take is a sure win with Hougang and Aljunied, but quite uncertain of the rest.

Yes, but certainly in a better position than in past elections when everything was on the balance without certainty.

SDA is the weakest of the opposition parties, and I seriously doubt they can win any seats. However, I hope they can cut the winning percentage of the PAP in Pasir Ris Punggol GRC.

SDA has become a circus and Desmond Lim the chief clown. He'll lose his deposit. That I take as a certainty.