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First WP GRC - Aljunied?
- Thread starter manokie
- Start date
I think WP need to publish their election manifesto soon if they want to woo serious voters
I think WP need to publish their election manifesto soon if they want to woo serious voters
WP manifesto has been published for years.
surely the gahmen would have noted the significant close shave for aljunied GRC. WKS must be cracking his head now on how he should be drawing the lines for aljunied GRC. if he draw more to AMK GRC & causing ah loong to lose, his head will roll. if he draw more to jln besah GRC, the polls could swing in favor of the opposition. if he cut more to pasir ris punggol, there's a chance that the weaklings might lose their jobs.
aljunied GRC is probably the biggest headache for them right now, cos whichever way they slice & dice it, the neighboring GRCs will be greatly affected, due to the previous GE results.
aljunied GRC is probably the biggest headache for them right now, cos whichever way they slice & dice it, the neighboring GRCs will be greatly affected, due to the previous GE results.
I mean their Election Manifesto for 2010 or 2011
AMK/Jalan Besar/Pasir Ris GRC ( PAP hold 30%+ lead ) can safely absorb or give away precincts to neighboring Aljunied GRC next GE and those constituencies are still PAP safe seats.
Is WP still keen on AMK GRC next GE?, remember they say contesting AMK is a one off thing.
The rampant and gerry mandearing by the PAP which results in the ridiculous way some constituencies are cut up make it very hard for the APs to know which ground to work.
Hence, the APs should just work together. Go for walkabouts together or spread each other's flyers. This is an example of a simple yet effective way for the APs to work together and to reach out to as many people as possible.
Hence, the APs should just work together. Go for walkabouts together or spread each other's flyers. This is an example of a simple yet effective way for the APs to work together and to reach out to as many people as possible.
SO my dear friend now you see the importance of Opposition walk in one united front because you simply do not know where and when the enemy attacks or slice the GRC.
That's why its important that the message to the masses is VOTE for opposition regardless of which constituency you are in and not in particular party or personality. Nothing stopping the PAP from joining hougang into marine parade GRC is they want to.
If Opposition is united without a form or targeted base, the PAP then simply do not know where to cut or slice simply any ways they cut rain or shine there will an opposition presence.
Kiddo, this is politics, you got to conniving enough, shrewd enough to out maneuver your enemy. Otherwise you will always be a sitting duck wondering when they will cut up your constituency and your rightful base of supporters. But when you have no ONE FORM, the enemy will not know where to slice.... for all you know Bishan GRC may be cut up too!
In politics, nothing is cock sure. Only thing cock sure is, if you cannot play their game their rules, you get played like monkeys.
WP didn't update its manifesto for many years until last updated about half a year before GE 2006. It's still current and valid until WP sees any necessity to update it. There's no such requirement as every party must have a new manifesto for every election. If a party changes manifesto drastiscally at every election, then you and I worry. Always not updating is also not advisable as the times change. There should be a balance.
If you do a detailed analysis of the political support, it will be obvious that there is a very strong correlation with age. In general the younger the voting population, the weaker the support, Another factor which can affect the vote is the Minister/Opposition composition which can affect the vote by as much as 20%.
The current PAP political strategy in holding on to power therefore involves spreading out the demographics so that overall the older voters are lumped with the younger voters. Depending on where they see a threat, they then parachute in heavy weight Ministers to move the vote in their favour.
As an election tactic, these tactics are only viable if their overall support is above 60%.
If it falls to below, 60%, it becomes difficult to spread their support out so that they can achieve the current near domination. If the overall support drops to below 55%, then it becomes near impossible to do it effectively.
Given the demographic change affecting Singapore, there is a high probability that the overall support will fall from the last election of 66% to below 60% for the upcoming elections.
If things carry on the way for another 4-5 years after the coming elections, then a drop to below 55% for the following election is possible.
This would then mark the start of the change that so many of us have been working for.
If oppostion really interested in winning a GRC, then look for those GRCs where residents consist of ppl who were once force to relocate from kampong to HDB. These bunch of ppl normally are disgruntle lot, having being force to relocate from their home, with a small compensation package and lost their only mean of income.
Ppl from LCK and CCK move mostly to Jurong and Bukit Panjang area. Jalan Kayu relocated HG ave 8. Punggol are mostly in HG ave 5 & 7 and some of the earlier phrase into AMK. That the reason why resident of HG SMC & defunct Chengsan GRC voted for the oppostion.
Ppl from LCK and CCK move mostly to Jurong and Bukit Panjang area. Jalan Kayu relocated HG ave 8. Punggol are mostly in HG ave 5 & 7 and some of the earlier phrase into AMK. That the reason why resident of HG SMC & defunct Chengsan GRC voted for the oppostion.
My opinion too. Singaporeans very pragmatic, they want change but when they see a biggie minister shaken, they scare the main foundation will be shaken too. So they rather stick for time tested formula and gets screwed over and over again.
So GMS wants to take on that shortie Mah in Tampines. What are his chances, as good as the cow flying over the moon. Why? Why of all places Tampines, those people there are not about to vote in a opposition which will mean lower resale value on their housing. Currently, they are one of the constituents that enjoys the highest resale value on their flats. So what for take on that shortie in Tampines on issues such as housing?
I rather they combined and take on a GRC that has a insignificant minister post that even if PAP lost, the people would feel it would only be a dent in the armor cos those dogs will easily find any candidate to fill it up ie that minister of tong sampah Yaakob fellow or that ah qua minister in charge of MCYS.
You are forgetting the uproar amongst the populace against the PAPies and their various policies. Like all empires, their greed will lead to their downfall. They have certainly bitten off too much in the past few years.
The voters are itching to put their votes to good use. Young voters are seeing their jobs being taken away by FTs and the cost of homes skyrocketing. They have also seen the huge number of FTs in their insitutions of learning and they know many of these FTs are on scholarships all at the expense of locals. GE2010/2011 is very different from GE2006 when voters were largely still hoodwinked by the PAPies.
The only thing preventing a larger lost for the PAPies is the number and quality of the APs. The quality is certainly better this time around than GE2006. We will wait and see how many there are on nomination day.
This is possible. Unfortunately unlike the age and Minister/Opposition factors, we don't have any empirical evidence of just how large the swing will be. It might actually be quite large as there have been many ad hoc reports of even traditional demograpics that tradtionally support PAP voicing unhappiness at recent policies.
Still with only about 50% pre-65 and 50% post-65, I would say that a 6% downward swing is a resonable estimate. Anything more would be really because of the recent policy cock-ups.
The PAPies never spell out their manifesto. If they did, it will shock all and asunder!
There is definitely a swing towards the APs. It's everyone's guess what the percentage is. From shittalk coming from RCs the PAPies are scared for their asses. That is how bad things are for the PAPies. The feelings of the voters are quite bad and unlike anything ever seen in the past 50 years.
The PAPies are against the wall. Let's hope that the voters stay true to their feelings come polling day. It is crucial that the APs put up a good front and assure the voters of continuity in the civil service and a lot of changes to policies.
Rough rule of thumb
Above 60%: Maintain current domination.
55% to 60%: Lost 1 to 2 GRCs.
50% to 55%: Loss of 2/3 majority.
Less than 50%: PAP fall from power.
These numbers are based on recent analysis of the Malaysian polls. UMNO support was between 50% to 55%
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