First WP GRC - Aljunied?

[Perspective]

your scenario is pessimistic but realistic. Potong Pasir and Hougang in oppositions control are vulnerable once their long serving incumbent MP leave. 人在情在 人走情走 - Chiam and LTK iron votes might not go to their successors. If that happen, PAP has excellent chance of winning back the seats

anyway, putting all aside and just factoring in nationwide swing of votes affecting all constituencies.
How much votes you expect our oppositions to win or lose against PAP?

If our oppositions have a nationwide swing of 5 percent in their favor, would WP win Aljunied GRC?

Aljunied was the highest score for the opp with 44% but if you add that to the score you get 49% which is still a loss.

There are also conditions that change so just using a 5% formula might be inaccurate. For eg the WP team will have a lot of new faces. Who they are also plays a part. The last time they had a colorful Gomez and GMS plus a very qualified chap Tan Wui Hua who earns more than a PAP minister. If they are replaced with less profile chaps, it won't work.

In Tampines you can't just add 5% because the NSP SG GMS is now running there compared to a lacklustre team the last time. There is also Chiam's GRC and KJ's GRC (if the two do not combine).

When SDP became the only opp in 1988 it increased its prominence and won 3 in 1991. WP went the other way, lowering its prominence for whatever reasons or intentions. It might fall short of expectations.

I expect an 8% swing this time. PAP's votes will be around 58% plus minus. However WP will get less least out of the 8% because it is winning over the last batch of voters to cross 50% which is the hardest. Maybe 5% and fall short. The others will raise 10% for themselves, still falling short.

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

If our oppositions have a nationwide swing of 5 percent in their favor, would WP win Aljunied GRC?

It is a realistic assumption that the National Vote swing is about 5 percent, although Tan Kin Lian's web poll has shown very optimistic vote swing percentage. Kin Lian's estimation is 15% vote swing, much lower than his poll result.

WP will have to command more than the National Vote swing of 5% in order to win Aljunied GRC as the result in 2005 is 43.9%. It is up to anyone guess whether WP could continue to beat the National vote swing level for the next GE.

But if LTK walks into Aljunied GRC, WP may just enjoy higher vote swing. It needs an additional 1.5% vote swing on top of the 5% National swing to capture Aljunied.

Goh Meng Seng

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

In Tampines you can't just add 5% because the NSP SG GMS is now running there compared to a lacklustre team the last time. There is also Chiam's GRC and KJ's GRC (if the two do not combine).

Comparing with WP which needs only a vote swing of 6% to win Aljunied, NSP has to garner TWENTY PERCENTAGE vote swing in order to take down Tampines! Even for WP's East Coast team, they will need only a vote swing of only 14%. My task is far more challenging than anyone else in WP.

Goh Meng Seng

 

[Perspective]

Comparing with WP which needs only a vote swing of 6% to win Aljunied, NSP has to garner TWENTY PERCENTAGE vote swing in order to take down Tampines! Even for WP's East Coast team, they will need only a vote swing of only 14%. My task is far more challenging than anyone else in WP.

Goh Meng Seng

That is why I said the chances of a GRC falling is very slim. If PAP's votes go down to 58% maybe 2015 there will be a chance. Your (and Tampines) vote swing, however, will be bigger than the WP.

To be exact, you need only 17% not 20%. And at least 10% out of the 17% would be easier to win over than the 7%.

 

[manokie]

Comparing with WP which needs only a vote swing of 6% to win Aljunied, NSP has to garner TWENTY PERCENTAGE vote swing in order to take down Tampines! Even for WP's East Coast team, they will need only a vote swing of only 14%. My task is far more challenging than anyone else in WP.

Goh Meng Seng

Then you need to work harder and talk to all the Tampines residents what you plan to do with their vote! Assure them that removing MBT will not devalue their flats!

 

[Sideswipe]

I expect an 8% swing this time. PAP's votes will be around 58% plus minus. However WP will get less least out of the 8% because it is winning over the last batch of voters to cross 50% which is the hardest. Maybe 5% and fall short. The others will raise 10% for themselves, still falling short.

That 8% swing mean oppositions will hit 40% votes, the highest since 1963 but still 2 seats?

This is a cruel result for our oppositions.

 

[Perspective]

That 8% swing mean oppositions will hit 40% votes, the highest since 1963 but still 2 seats?

This is a cruel result for our oppositions.

Based on the current opposition, it needs to overall score 49.5% just to have 20 MPs in Parliament. In fact it has to be a precision of 50.5%. You have to factor in a few things:

1) Homogenous voters
2) The GRC, which makes the game "win all or lose all". 3% swing may mean 3 GRCs changing hands.

 

[Ramseth]

I agree with Perspective. A very likely scenario is both CST and LTK stepping out to contest GRC. Whoever defending PP and Hougang would still lose them back to PAP. Both CST and LTK would have high scores in their GRC contests but fall short of winning scores. They'd retire. GMS and KJ would get high scores in their GRCs too, but still lose. 100% PAP MPs in Parliament. Opposition all NCMPs between 9 to 12.

 

[Queen Seok Duk]

If LTK leaves Hougang, then the message to the electorate is this: No GRC, No Opposition.

The other PAP held constituencies should no longer count on residents of Potong Pasir and Hougang to carry the opposition flags. The residents in GRCs must do their part. If oppositions fail to win at least a GRC, the prospect of ZERO representation of oppositions in Parliament is very real. If that happens, FTrash will trample over us !

Make no mistakes about it. This election is about regaining our home soil from the feet of FTrash.

 

[Perspective]

If LTK leaves Hougang, then the message to the electorate is this: No GRC, No Opposition.

The other PAP held constituencies should no longer count on residents of Potong Pasir and Hougang to carry the opposition flags. The residents in GRCs must do their part. If oppositions fail to win at least a GRC, the prospect of ZERO representation of oppositions in Parliament is very real. If that happens, FTrash will trample over us !

Make no mistakes about it. This election is about regaining our home soil from the feet of FTrash.

Ideally yes, but with the NCMP, there will never really be zero opposition in Parliament. A clean sweep is different from a one-party Parliament. The two were synonymous back then but now not any more.

I have to give credit for the NCMP scheme. Opposition's growth might or might not be hampered by the NCMP scheme, but opposition confirm will never die. There will be a real danger of future elections becoming like 1968 if opposition loses all in 2010/2011 and there is no NCMP scheme.

 

[Sideswipe]

I agree with Perspective. A very likely scenario is both CST and LTK stepping out to contest GRC. Whoever defending PP and Hougang would still lose them back to PAP. Both CST and LTK would have high scores in their GRC contests but fall short of winning scores. They'd retire. GMS and KJ would get high scores in their GRCs too, but still lose. 100% PAP MPs in Parliament. Opposition all NCMPs between 9 to 12.

If the votes swing to opposition is high enough ( above 5% ), factoring in last GE results, oppo might still defend PP/Hougang successfully without CST/LTK. The key is how much votes will return to PAP in those two seats just because CST/LTK aren't contesting?

you agree with Perspective likely scenario of PAP 60% votes, 100% parliament and Opposition 40% votes, 0 seats if LTK/CST contest GRCs...

 

[popdod]

They will lose to the Malays & Indians support.

:o :( :o

 

[ChaoPappyPoodle]

That is why I said the chances of a GRC falling is very slim. If PAP's votes go down to 58% maybe 2015 there will be a chance. Your (and Tampines) vote swing, however, will be bigger than the WP.

To be exact, you need only 17% not 20%. And at least 10% out of the 17% would be easier to win over than the 7%.

As it is now, there is at least a 10% vote swing against the PAPies. Against this are the new citizens.

The PAPies will try to use the NCMP system to appease voters against voting for the APs. The APs have to have a good answer to the NCMP system so that voters won't be hoodwinked into thinking that the NCMP system allows for an alternative voice in parliament. There are no voting rights and the PAPies will still do as they please.

Let's face the fact, the PAPies are simply a poor lot of mercenaries. They are poor politicians and even poorer liars. Even with the entire media regime behind them they can't come up with decent arguments to prove their lot.

 

[Airlib]

I certainly hope the two old generals, Chaim and LTK won't give up their single seat ward just to go into a GRC... Though Chaim had already done that and I worry if he will end up losing both PP and not even setting foot into Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC.
Cos if these 2 single seat opps are out of the game.. then even the govt increase the number of NCMP also no use.
Hopefully WP can send Sylvia Lim into Aljunied and LTK can make constant appearance to 'drum' support instead of giving up Hougang. If not we can kiss good-bye to any opps presence in Parliament.

 

[theDoors]

Aljunied GRC residents must be very happy to be first two GRCs to have their service and conservancy charges raised.

 

[manokie]

I certainly hope the two old generals, Chaim and LTK won't give up their single seat ward just to go into a GRC... Though Chaim had already done that and I worry if he will end up losing both PP and not even setting foot into Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC.
Cos if these 2 single seat opps are out of the game.. then even the govt increase the number of NCMP also no use.
Hopefully WP can send Sylvia Lim into Aljunied and LTK can make constant appearance to 'drum' support instead of giving up Hougang. If not we can kiss good-bye to any opps presence in Parliament.

No risk no gain

If LTK goes for Aljunied, he might win it and if some other credible WP guy goes for Hougang, he might win it.

 

[Ramseth]

Opposition election performance forecast track record:

GE2001 - GMS (1 GRC + 3 SMCs) v. Ramseth (2 SMCs)

GMS lost a Mos Burger value meal to Ramseth.

GE2006 - GMS (1 GRC + 3 SMCs) v. Ramseth (2 SMCs)

GMS lost a Jack's Place steak set to Ramseth.

Note: The bets were made after nomination days, when candidates were known.

 

[allanlee]

My erection departo barbecue sauce says there will be no Aljunied GRC this coming GE..... the present GRC will be carved up with more than half its boundary going to the MIWs stronghold of Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC...... there will be a new GRC comprising the remaining GRC and parts of Tampines GRC....... Serangoon-Eunos GRC :p

 

[jw5]

Aljunied was the highest score for the opp with 44% but if you add that to the score you get 49% which is still a loss.

There are also conditions that change so just using a 5% formula might be inaccurate. For eg the WP team will have a lot of new faces. Who they are also plays a part. The last time they had a colorful Gomez and GMS plus a very qualified chap Tan Wui Hua who earns more than a PAP minister. If they are replaced with less profile chaps, it won't work.

I don't know Mr. Tan and don't know how much he earns, but I'm quite confident that it's less than a pap ministar.
You should not make statements like this if you are not sure. Saying that he's qualified is sufficient.

 

[jw5]

Opposition election performance forecast track record:

GE2001 - GMS (1 GRC + 3 SMCs) v. Ramseth (2 SMCs)

GMS lost a Mos Burger value meal to Ramseth.

GE2006 - GMS (1 GRC + 3 SMCs) v. Ramseth (2 SMCs)

GMS lost a Jack's Place steak set to Ramseth.

Note: The bets were made after nomination days, when candidates were known.

If he loses the bet to you again, the dinner may be at the Lobster Bar & Grill, Island Shangri-la Hotel, Hong Kong.