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GE akan datang...
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Singaporean review of constituency boundaries raises expectations of early election
The next general election must be held by January 2017, but may come as early as late this year, after celebrations for the 50th anniversary of independence in August.
PUBLISHED : Monday, 13 July, 2015, 4:32pm
UPDATED : Monday, 13 July, 2015, 4:32pm
Reuters in Singapore
Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. Photo: Xinhua
Singapore has launched a review of electoral constituency boundaries, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong told parliament on Monday, in an announcement likely to raise speculation of an early election.
The next general election must be held by January 2017, but there has been speculation in the media and political blogs that it could be held as early as late this year, after celebrations for the 50th anniversary of independence in August.
The People’s Action Party, founded by Lee’s father, the late Lee Kuan Yew, has ruled Singapore since independence but it won its lowest ever share of the vote in the last polls in 2011, with many people unhappy about the cost of living and immigration.
The prime minister said the government has formed an electoral boundaries review committee to redraw constituencies and said the publication of its findings would not determine the timing of the next election.
“The committee will publish its report and, to the maximum extent possible, we will make sure that... enough time elapses so that everybody can read the report, understand it, and know where they stand before the elections are called,” he said.
“But I don’t think it is possible to say that we promise a certain minimum period, such as six months, because it depends very much on the exigencies of the situation, and depends on when elections become necessary.”
Analysts have speculated the government might want to take advantage of a feel-good factor over the 50th anniversary of independence on August 9 which will be marked with much fanfare.
The legacy of Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore’s first prime minister, who died on March 23, is also fresh in the minds of voters.
Lee oversaw the city-state’s rapid rise from a British colonial backwater to a global trade and financial centre and his death triggered a flood of tributes.
In his lifetime, the elder Lee drew praise for his market-friendly policies, but also criticism at home and abroad for his strict controls over the press, public protest and political opponents.
knn...not only testing my maths, but also my england as well... 
yes agree, there could still be 5-man GRC; in a bao-jiak situation and when he needs to bring in a potential
minister via the back door
yes agree, there could still be 5-man GRC; in a bao-jiak situation and when he needs to bring in a potential
minister via the back door
"To reduce the average size of the GRCs below 5" could mean that there will still be 5 man GRCs, but there will be more 4 man and perhaps even 3 man GRCs, such that the average size is below 5.
Having smaller size GRC means there could be a few more extra GRC. It also mean oppositions will be struggling to find more credible minority candidates to fill the GRC slot. Not an easy thing to do.
Also by shrinking the size of GRC, it tend to favor smaller oppositions with limited resources. Bigger player like WP will stand at a disadvantage. It could also encourage more 3cf.
Also by shrinking the size of GRC, it tend to favor smaller oppositions with limited resources. Bigger player like WP will stand at a disadvantage. It could also encourage more 3cf.
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I doubt more seats will be created.
1. new wards tend to fall to the opposition
2. there is no advantage in incumbency, strategy or history
3. the more seats there are, the less 3CFs there would be
4. PAP is having difficulties sourcing for new qualified candidates
5. denying opposition from gaining 1/3 of the seats is not the priority, denying them the opportunity to get any more is
If you were not a PAP lackey, they would have arrested you pedophile! PAP = Pedophiles Action Party.
That may happen but I opine not for this GE. It will happen when the MIW face an imminent threat. Don't see it coming soon. They can lose another 1 or 2 GRCs/SMCs this round and yet continue to abuse the system and reap benefits for themselves.
Let's see if WP team in Aljunied changes. I hope either LTK or SL leads another. They have that credibility to worry the MIW.
He never stood a chance. At most, volunteer or low rank appointment in the grassroots.
Yes they will change only when it is beneficial to them. GRC were created to entrench their hold and to make things difficult for the oppos. But now that they have been beaten at their own game, smaller GRC is now suggested.
Previously fielding a team for the bigger GRC was a hindrance. Now to have a chance to win seats, concentrate on building a good team to fight a GRC. The papzis make it easier for the oppos as their weaker and new candidates are usually fielded in GRC. So a very strong team vs a weaken PAP team is a foregone conclusion.
My Paper 14 Jul 15
-----------------------------
Smaller GRCs likely come next S'pore general election
SINGAPORE looks set for an imminent general election with more Group Representation Constituencies (GRCs) that are smaller, and at least 12 Single Member Constituencies (SMCs).
The committee that reviews and redraws constituency boundaries ahead of a general election was formed two months ago, said Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong in Parliament yesterday.
Mr Lee told the House that he had asked the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee in its review to consider the population shifts and housing developments since the last boundary redrawing.
He also asked it to consider having smaller GRCs, with each one to have an average of fewer than five MPs.
The committee will also consider having at least 12 SMCs, said Mr Lee. There are currently 12 SMCs and 15 GRCs, with an average of five MPs per GRC.
Analysts told The Straits Times that they expect to see the creation of more four-man GRCs and more seats in Parliament.
"We don't have natural boundaries like rivers or mountains, so there's only so many ways you can slice the pie. Logically speaking, we should expect to see six-man GRCs becoming five-man ones, five-man GRCs becoming four," said political scientist Lam Peng Er of the East Asian Institute.
There are now two six-member GRCs, 11 five-member GRCs and two four-member GRCs.
Political watchers like Singapore Management University law don Eugene Tan did not rule out the continuation of six-member GRCs, but said that they would be harder to justify going forward.
Mr Lee first pledged in 2009 to reduce the size of GRCs from 5.4 MPs to five, as well as to increase the number of SMCs.
These changes were made before the 2011 General Election. Then, the number of SMCs was also raised from nine to 12.
Mr Lee's announcement, made in response to questions from Arthur Fong (West Coast GRC) and Non-Constituency MP Yee Jenn Jong, indicates that the next general election is around the corner.
After the committee's report is published, the next stage in the lead-up to Polling Day is for Parliament to be dissolved and the writ of election issued.
The next step is Nomination Day, which must take place no earlier than five days and no later than one month after the writ is issued. Nomination Day is the start of the campaign period, which is required to be at least nine days.
There is a Cooling-Off Day before voters cast their ballots on Polling Day.
In past elections, the whole process between the formation of the committee and Polling Day has taken between two and seven months.
Leading up to the polls in 2006 and 2011, the committee had taken four months to do its work before issuing its report.
While there is no fixed date for the election to be called after the report is submitted, it has taken as few as one day in the past.
Mr Lee said: "(The committee) is now in the midst of its deliberations and will make its recommendations to me when it is ready."
He also addressed questions from Mr Yee about the committee's composition and the minutes of its meetings.
Mr Lee added that "to the maximum extent possible, we will make sure that there is enough time elapsed" between the report and the calling of a general election, for people to read and understand the report.
But he said it was not possible to promise a minimum period between the publishing of the report and the calling of a general election, which Mr Yee had asked for.
The reason is that "it depends very much on the exigencies of the situation, and on when elections become necessary", Mr Lee said.
[email protected]
[email protected]
-----------------------------
Smaller GRCs likely come next S'pore general election
SINGAPORE looks set for an imminent general election with more Group Representation Constituencies (GRCs) that are smaller, and at least 12 Single Member Constituencies (SMCs).
The committee that reviews and redraws constituency boundaries ahead of a general election was formed two months ago, said Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong in Parliament yesterday.
Mr Lee told the House that he had asked the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee in its review to consider the population shifts and housing developments since the last boundary redrawing.
He also asked it to consider having smaller GRCs, with each one to have an average of fewer than five MPs.
The committee will also consider having at least 12 SMCs, said Mr Lee. There are currently 12 SMCs and 15 GRCs, with an average of five MPs per GRC.
Analysts told The Straits Times that they expect to see the creation of more four-man GRCs and more seats in Parliament.
"We don't have natural boundaries like rivers or mountains, so there's only so many ways you can slice the pie. Logically speaking, we should expect to see six-man GRCs becoming five-man ones, five-man GRCs becoming four," said political scientist Lam Peng Er of the East Asian Institute.
There are now two six-member GRCs, 11 five-member GRCs and two four-member GRCs.
Political watchers like Singapore Management University law don Eugene Tan did not rule out the continuation of six-member GRCs, but said that they would be harder to justify going forward.
Mr Lee first pledged in 2009 to reduce the size of GRCs from 5.4 MPs to five, as well as to increase the number of SMCs.
These changes were made before the 2011 General Election. Then, the number of SMCs was also raised from nine to 12.
Mr Lee's announcement, made in response to questions from Arthur Fong (West Coast GRC) and Non-Constituency MP Yee Jenn Jong, indicates that the next general election is around the corner.
After the committee's report is published, the next stage in the lead-up to Polling Day is for Parliament to be dissolved and the writ of election issued.
The next step is Nomination Day, which must take place no earlier than five days and no later than one month after the writ is issued. Nomination Day is the start of the campaign period, which is required to be at least nine days.
There is a Cooling-Off Day before voters cast their ballots on Polling Day.
In past elections, the whole process between the formation of the committee and Polling Day has taken between two and seven months.
Leading up to the polls in 2006 and 2011, the committee had taken four months to do its work before issuing its report.
While there is no fixed date for the election to be called after the report is submitted, it has taken as few as one day in the past.
Mr Lee said: "(The committee) is now in the midst of its deliberations and will make its recommendations to me when it is ready."
He also addressed questions from Mr Yee about the committee's composition and the minutes of its meetings.
Mr Lee added that "to the maximum extent possible, we will make sure that there is enough time elapsed" between the report and the calling of a general election, for people to read and understand the report.
But he said it was not possible to promise a minimum period between the publishing of the report and the calling of a general election, which Mr Yee had asked for.
The reason is that "it depends very much on the exigencies of the situation, and on when elections become necessary", Mr Lee said.
[email protected]
[email protected]
Not just a simple axing. Will legitimise the carving out and recontouring of Aljunied in the process too!
i Worry GE could be as early as Next Month ( Aug ) ...
Very unlikely. The boundaries have not been declared. At least three months for them to be gazetted. The Election workers too need to be trained for action. December or early 2016 is more probable.
Those were time oppositions was small and could hardly gather enough resources to contest in big GRC. Now the situation not the same. Any PAP move is probably done to capitalise on the saturated and ever more fragmented opposition scene. To make it easy for smaller players to contest (they will unlikely win anyway) and negate the advantage of bigger player like WP. To WP it lesser economies of scale and more resource draining if they want to cover more grounds with smaller GRCs . That means more headache in deployment of resources, extra minority candidates to fill the slots, more prospect of 3CF.
fren: redrawing of election boundaries is nothing new... it has been so for the past 50 y... and will remain so for next 50.. oppo parties are oredi used to these sort of dirty tricks, they're not worried.... the PAP is
the plus point here is there is a limit to what and how they can redraw... cos the GRC system is starting to work
against them
the plus point here is there is a limit to what and how they can redraw... cos the GRC system is starting to work
against them
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