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My Take on GE 2015

sleaguepunter

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
I think most regulars here knew I am an ABP (anythingbutpapigs). What I post now maybe a bit 馬后炮 but I don't want to post the info before polling day because I was hoping it not the true.

First potong pasir. I was waiting for my fishball noodle at upper serangoon 3miles point when an elderly ask can share table. One thing led to another, chit chat about the up coming GE, found out the elderly live at PP and claimed to support mr Chiam since the first time mr Chiam challenge for the seat of PP. But the elderly said won't vote mrs Chiam as view mrs Chiam as an airhead and was disappointed that instead of give the seat to a better choice, gave to his wife. Although the elderly voted for mrs Chiam in GE 2011, the elderly said won't vote for mrs Chiam this round. The elderly claim many of the neighbours also think the same way. This elderly is no papig supporter but felt let down by mr Chiam decision in 2011. A couple calls to PP ex schoolmates confirm the sentiment.

WP, I was disappointed with CSM. I already had the feeling way before jw5 went after Uncle GD for it. I too posted here before but I think jw5 miss it but I held my peace because I hoping CSM can improve. He can be very down to earth for all I care but only ppl who attend his grassroots events or MPS will know. While expectations on CSM maybe unreasonable in certain sense but come on, he a bloody scholar, bigshot M&A lawyer, cannot crunch some numbers and poke some holes in the annual budget? He may want to be a 儒士 but he forgotten singaporeans are from the children of coolie class, may not understand his poetry standard of speech. If go ask chinese on the street, 95% don't know who is 魏征。and by the way, 魏征 was li shimin minister, they are on the same side. Mr CSM is opposition, so using 魏征 as example was wrong.

WP also bite off more than they can chew. The logistics cannot handle at all. Do only one rally per smc or grc was no good enough, especially there no WP presence at MP at all for the past 4 years. McPherson had even no rally at all. Then also the asking for volunteers to be polling agents, many answer the call but was given no briefing at all. Many are first time being a polling agent and don't know what a polling agents suppose to do. Make worse by the fact the polling agents were left sitting there chobolan for 6 hours because the eld officer tell them wp candidate didn't buy the electoral list. Even no $$ buy, at least inform the polling agents to bring along paper to write down the number shouted by the eld officer. Very disappointing.

Even before the sample count was announced, I can see from the hougang stadium the crowd level was no way near 2011 at 9pm. It immediately remind me of 2006, where ten of thousands packed into serangoon stadium at 2006 but only a few thousands went to YCK stadium for the results. The middle voters are abandoning WP. i hate to admit it but the WP strategy of making themselves look like pap didn't make any tractions on the middle voters. If Voters want pap standard, might as well vote for pap, no reason at to vote for WP.

anyway sporeans are hopeless, I felt sorry for Ah Leong. $$ wasted in the past 20 years to bring real democracy to singapore and Singaporeans disappointed him again and again. Sporeans will never see the lights until reality bite them in the arse which by then it too late.

By the way, was informed by a friend who is a civil servant who help the eld at the counting centre that counting completed way before 3am. The returning officer purposely delay the aljunied result until papigs finished making their speeches. The wp aljunied team were at hougang stadium around 2am which mean counting completed at 1.30am the latest.
 

jw5

Moderator
Moderator
Loyal
You have your facts wrong. I never went after Uncle GD about CSM.

In Sep 2012, Uncle GD sent me a PM claiming that he was ex ISD and that both LTK and CSJ are moles. That's why I went after him. Surely you can understand why.

In May 2011, just before GE 2011, Uncle Scroobal started a thread about CSM, claiming that he was not fit to stand as an opposition candidate because he was born in Taiwan, and only served his NS just because he wanted to convert to Singaporean citizenship. Note the timing, this was BEFORE GE 2011 Polling Day. Again, surely you can understand why I went after Uncle Scroobal.

Repeat: You have got your facts wrong. And if you don't understand the 2 incidents above, then there's no point discussing with you further.

And there's one more thing about those 2 monikers, but I'll wait for your reply before telling you. :wink:

WP, I was disappointed with CSM. I already had the feeling way before jw5 went after Uncle GD for it. I too posted here before but I think jw5 miss it but I held my peace because I hoping CSM can improve. He can be very down to earth for all I care but only ppl who attend his grassroots events or MPS will know. While expectations on CSM maybe unreasonable in certain sense but come on, he a bloody scholar, bigshot M&A lawyer, cannot crunch some numbers and poke some holes in the annual budget? He may want to be a 儒士 but he forgotten singaporeans are from the children of coolie class, may not understand his poetry standard of speech. If go ask chinese on the street, 95% don't know who is 魏征。and by the way, 魏征 was li shimin minister, they are on the same side. Mr CSM is opposition, so using 魏征 as example was wrong.
 

GoldenDragon

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
TS - Pay attention to SBF's Dir of Investigations and most prolific contributor. You know who I am referring to. Cheers. This forum awaits its number 1 member.
 

Froggy

Alfrescian (InfP) + Mod
Moderator
Generous Asset
You have your facts wrong. I never went after Uncle GD about CSM.

In Sep 2012, Uncle GD sent me a PM claiming that he was ex ISD and that both LTK and CSJ are moles. That's why I went after him. Surely you can understand why.

In May 2011, just before GE 2011, Uncle Scroobal started a thread about CSM, claiming that he was not fit to stand as an opposition candidate because he was born in Taiwan, and only served his NS just because he wanted to convert to Singaporean citizenship. Note the timing, this was BEFORE GE 2011 Polling Day. Again, surely you can understand why I went after Uncle Scroobal.

Repeat: You have got your facts wrong. And if you don't understand the 2 incidents above, then there's no point discussing with you further.

And there's one more thing about those 2 monikers, but I'll wait for your reply before telling you. :wink:

Ah hiah jw5 why this forum so many uncles one? Please don't ever call me uncle hor I zap you ya.
 

kukubird59

Alfrescian
Loyal
TS - Pay attention to SBF's Dir of Investigations and most prolific contributor. You know who I am referring to. Cheers. This forum awaits its number 1 member.
hahaha.....of course you are referring to jw5....but i will not be be surprised that soon you will have a label for me also....
the fact remains that you really have very thick hide...like scroobola....
you have posted openly many times that CSJ and LTK were papee moles.....do you now deny this????
 

sleaguepunter

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
You have your facts wrong. I never went after Uncle GD about CSM.

In Sep 2012, Uncle GD sent me a PM claiming that he was ex ISD and that both LTK and CSJ are moles. That's why I went after him. Surely you can understand why.

In May 2011, just before GE 2011, Uncle Scroobal started a thread about CSM, claiming that he was not fit to stand as an opposition candidate because he was born in Taiwan, and only served his NS just because he wanted to convert to Singaporean citizenship. Note the timing, this was BEFORE GE 2011 Polling Day. Again, surely you can understand why I went after Uncle Scroobal.

Repeat: You have got your facts wrong. And if you don't understand the 2 incidents above, then there's no point discussing with you further.

And there's one more thing about those 2 monikers, but I'll wait for your reply before telling you. :wink:

Paiseh.... Maybe I mixed up the issue with scroobal and uncle Kim Leng as I really not really paying attention to your quarrels with them. As for GD a ISD or not, I really dun care. Too many ppl like him post nonsense all the time, take it with a pinch of salt. As for scroobal, he think too highly on himself. Clones war not my cup of tea, this the only nick I has here although I used a different nick at Delphi.
 

sleaguepunter

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
I forgotten to add in the first post. New citizens is definitely a force to reckon with. A WP polling agent told me seeing quite a number of new citizens at the polls by their PRC accents and pinoy england. Only cannot tell the different kelings were local or India keling. The worse part was pap polling agents consist of PRCs too.
 

eatshitndie

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
I forgotten to add in the first post. New citizens is definitely a force to reckon with. A WP polling agent told me seeing quite a number of new citizens at the polls by their PRC accents and pinoy england. Only cannot tell the different kelings were local or India keling. The worse part was pap polling agents consist of PRCs too.

be careful on how you define new shitizens. for some like erotica, he refers to those sinkies born and bred in sg up to 1994, when they are 21 years old in 2015 and eligible to vote. he sticks to his estimates at 140k, and i'm not debating that. for me, i refer to those adult foreigners who are naturalized as shitizens from 2008 onwards, and that number is conservatively calculated by me at 160k, at a 80% back off from the unsubstantiated claim of 200k. 160k out of a total vote count of 2.4m constitutes a huge statistically significant swing, no matter how discredited pundits here try to play down that number.
 

jw5

Moderator
Moderator
Loyal
Ok point taken, ............................... There is actually good reason for you to mix up uncles scroobal and goldendragon.................... :wink:

In any case, I did read your criticism about CSM as well as other criticisms about other opposition candidates or MPs and accept these genuine posts. Appreciate also your posts about your own experiences, including attendance at rallies. What I cannot stand is those fuckers, like those 2 uncle monikers above, who constantly try to manipulate forummers due to his huge ego and need to be popular, while at the same time telling fake/bullshit stories.

Paiseh.... Maybe I mixed up the issue with scroobal and uncle Kim Leng as I really not really paying attention to your quarrels with them. As for GD a ISD or not, I really dun care. Too many ppl like him post nonsense all the time, take it with a pinch of salt. As for scroobal, he think too highly on himself. Clones war not my cup of tea, this the only nick I has here although I used a different nick at Delphi.
 

takashi

Alfrescian
Loyal
for me, i refer to those adult foreigners who are naturalized as shitizens from 2008 onwards, and that number is conservatively calculated by me at 160k, at a 80% back off from the unsubstantiated claim of 200k.
Unless I've calculated wrongly or the PAP government is lying, the precise number seems to be 136,589 from whole of 2008 to whole of 2014, an average of about 19,500 per year for seven years.


160k out of a total vote count of 2.4m constitutes a huge statistically significant swing, no matter how discredited pundits here try to play down that number.
As explained in my thread above, I'm afraid it's really true that the nearly 80,000 PRs who became "new citizens" (during the four years from 2011 to 2014) were NOT the ones that caused the significant swing, simply because most of them were only replacing the nearly 80,000 Sinkie men and women (most of whom were above 60 years old and probably pro-PAP) who died during those four years.
 
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jw5

Moderator
Moderator
Loyal
Those who died during those 4 years would not have been pro-pap if they had died poor and/or exhausted. :(

As explained in my thread above, I'm afraid it's really true that the nearly 80,000 PRs who became "new citizens" (during the four years from 2011 to 2014) were NOT the ones that caused the significant swing, simply because most of them were only replacing the nearly 80,000 Sinkie men and women (most of whom were above 60 years old and probably pro-PAP) who died during those four years.
 

LordElrond

Alfrescian (InfP)
Generous Asset
Please guys, your arguments are not logical. There is at least the same level of swing, if not more, caused by new citizens during GE2011. You cannot use new citizens to explain the vote swing. If they caused 5% swing in GE2015, they did the same to GE2011, incremental swing is zero. In fact they were a bit scared after GE2011 and the rate of increase of new citizens could well be lower.
 

Sideswipe

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
cheer up guys. it's not so bad. GE2011 Opposition 40% votes = 6 seats, GE2015 Opposition 30% votes = 6 seats. it's still the same, no difference lah. why the Opposition lost 10% votes ? it is very simple. according to E69, Tonychat's vulgarities and nonsense on this mighty forum pissed off and angered large chunks of the middle-ground votes towards the PAP. it's all Tonychat's fault lah. :rolleyes::biggrin:
 

yahoo55

Alfrescian
Loyal
Yes, cheer up guys. All is not lost in GE2015, I see some positives in WP's performance in this GE.

The huge positive is that WP still manage to retain Aljunied GRC despite PAP's dirty politics of withholding public money, WP only suffer a 3.75% drop in Aljunied compared to the national 10% swing to PAP. Not only that, WP has actually improved their votes in some wards like Eunos, Kaki Bukit and Bedok Reservoir compared with GE2011. Looks like more lower income families and Malays are convinced about WP, and are voting and supporting the party.

WP was pulled down by Serangoon and Paya Lebar, both have significant number of private homes and upper middle-income families. My guess is that the large number of angry protest votes against PAP from middle-income families seen in GE2011 have dissipate in this GE.

Compared to the national results, the Aljunied results shows that many middle ground voters like their WP MPs and support the party. I think Aljunied can be the next stronghold for WP if the party leaders and MPs continue to work hard on the ground and in parliament. Also improving the cleanliness and maintenance of the HDB estates by WP's town council will win over more middle ground voters in the next GE.

WP is not weaken badly by this GE, they have good leaders, a presence in parliament, and a strong supporter base to build on. But this GE results shows that WP needs to rely less on protest votes and work harder to convince more middle-ground voters and middle-income voters to support the party, in order to gain more seats in the next GE.
 

laksaboy

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Please guys, your arguments are not logical. There is at least the same level of swing, if not more, caused by new citizens during GE2011. You cannot use new citizens to explain the vote swing. If they caused 5% swing in GE2015, they did the same to GE2011, incremental swing is zero. In fact they were a bit scared after GE2011 and the rate of increase of new citizens could well be lower.

New citizens + LKY nostalgia + SG50 + Pioneer bribing + impending external gloom (the main reason why there is an early election)

Everything works together to create the outcome.
 
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