PE Why it broke all expectations. ( tactical voting )

[lockeliberal]

Its now clear the almost 12% swing from the PAP from GE 2011 to BE. That swing itself whilst above most expectations was personally within my own 10% estimate. The shock an dismay on the part of the PAP points to the utter surprise that this result delivered to them, the question remains how or what was their road to victory and why it did not happen. Lets be clear the PAP were expecting or wanted to hold on to PE, they pulled in the prime minister, promised a slew of policies announced before the budget, they wanted seriously to hold on to PE. The issue for the PAP was not the swing from 2011 to 2013, rather if Scroobal was correct how did a margin of nearly 70% in an SMC erode to 55% in 2011 and a loss in 2013. The New SMCs were carved out because they were PAP strong holds and not PAP weaknesses and to lose it all is not only a slap but a knife to the core of what the PAP stands for.


Most of us who were predicting a close PAP victory were counting in our bones a split in the opposition vote. Never in my wildest dreams did I expect KJ to collapse below two percent. I expected Desmond's votes to swing to KJ and KJ to pick up enough from the TJS supportive crowd to then make it a close encounter between the PAP and the WP. Well it did not happen despite the best efforts of KJ saying I am the true heir to the opposition and the PAP saying you are not opposition enough.

The only reason I can understand is the PE moment, Whilst I am not privy to the exact split within PE for TT and TJS. The fact that none of the TJS vote swung significantly to KJ was really an utter surprise. The fact that all of the TJS voters in the PE voted tactically supporting the candidate they thought could win versus the candidate which was more opposition like tells us a lot about the growing sophistication of the PE crowd. They learnt that lesson every time one looks at the picture of TT on the wall.


Locke

 

[codex]

most of west coast is private property. KJ might resonate there. He is so out of place in punggol. ANd most see him as a vulture swooping in. The question here is how much of the 35% will he retain after this. Most see him as a traitor

 

[myfoot123]

With that, Singaporeans have to appreciate SDP gesture for withdrawing at last minute. Otherwise, the outcome might be similar to presidential election. Imagine if TJS was not in the race of Presidential Election, Tan Cheng Bock & wife photos will be in Istana and hanging on every stat boards now, instead of Tony Tan,

 

[rodent2005]

The only reason I can understand is the PE moment, Whilst I am not privy to the exact split within PE for TT and TJS. The fact that none of the TJS vote swung significantly to KJ was really an utter surprise.

The Presidential Election did play a part. Credit to Singaporeans, esp. Punggol East Voters, who learned fast from lessons of the Presidential Election: just give your vote to the opposition member with the greatest chance of winning.

 

[cunnilaubu]

With that, Singaporeans have to appreciate SDP gesture for withdrawing at last minute.

Agreed that SDP played a significant role in this BE although they were not in the game themselves.
I still hope that he can be a third force in the local political landscape. But first of all, they must get rid of CSJ who is a liability.

 

[mopeng]

The Presidential Election did play a part. Credit to Singaporeans, esp. Punggol East Voters, who learned fast from lessons of the Presidential Election: just give your vote to the opposition member with the greatest chance of winning.

The PAP was so happy with the 4 corner fight. They were so so happy... then.

Now we should no longer worry about those PAP mole or any vote splitter(s).

Come 2016, just vote for the opposition with the greatest chance of winning.

 

[brocoli]

With that, Singaporeans have to appreciate SDP gesture for withdrawing at last minute. Otherwise, the outcome might be similar to presidential election. Imagine if TJS was not in the race of Presidential Election, Tan Cheng Bock & wife photos will be in Istana and hanging on every stat boards now, instead of Tony Tan,

rubbish.... SDP bail out so as not to be trashed and lose deposit...

they did not withdraw to give WP a better chance simply because they are that altruistic and also they will not make a diff

 

[zhihau]

Never in my wildest dreams did I expect KJ to collapse below two percent.

bro,
but me gave KJ a 1% in the prediction list :o:o:o

 

[jswyodn]

rubbish.... SDP bail out so as not to be trashed and lose deposit...

they did not withdraw to give WP a better chance simply because they are that altruistic and also they will not make a diff

That is obvious. Every other party, including SPP and NSP, dropped out because they know they simply cannot win. As with the SDP, it was in their best interest to not compete and instead walk away with the goodwill of having furthered the opposition cause as a side result of acting in their own interest.

Either way, I don't see why the SDP should be treated differently from the other parties that dropped out.

 

[wwabbit]

That is obvious. Every other party, including SPP and NSP, dropped out because they know they simply cannot win. As with the SDP, it was in their best interest to not compete and instead walk away with the goodwill of having furthered the opposition cause as a side result of acting in their own interest.

Either way, I don't see why the SDP should be treated differently from the other parties that dropped out.

Except for that crap they pulled with releasing the emails and the dumbass proposal for joint candidacy.

 

[jixiaolan]

By now, we all know that WP won the Punggol East by-election because there are localised problems in PE and the AIM saga convinced the voters to make a decisive swap. The residents were tired of PAP, aspired for change and willing to take a sacrifice on a young lady who have very much yet to prove herself. Who is LLL and what does she stands for? Is she even the most qualified person within the party to represent WP in this by-election? Personally, I rate Yee Jenn Jong, Angela and Glenda Han ahead of LLL. Still it was a whopping 13% vote swing. I could only concluded that it was a ride on the coattail based on party branding and the bitter ground sentiment. She happened to be in the right place, at the right time, to ride on a sea of change.

That is obvious. Every other party, including SPP and NSP, dropped out because they know they simply cannot win. As with the SDP, it was in their best interest to not compete and instead walk away with the goodwill of having furthered the opposition cause as a side result of acting in their own interest.

Either way, I don't see why the SDP should be treated differently from the other parties that dropped out.

 

[Seee3]

Not sure if this interpretation make sense.

From Presidential Election we may say that about 30% die-hard PAP supporters, 30% die-hard Opp supporters (those who voted TJS or TKL) and 30% whose vote depend on the candidate and the situation.

Assuming this is reasonable, then PAP & WP will each have a base of 30% of the votes. The swing depends on the remaining 30%. Since it is BE, the situation does not favour the PAP. However, KPK lack sincerity and humility when compared to LLL. Coupled with the rising cost, FT problems and local problems, rightfully, PAP should have foreseen the outcome and put in a better candidate - not in term of qualification but charisma.

The most important lesson learnt is that the 30% die-hard opp no longer vote blindly which explains the low % of KJ. This means that future "Harban Singh" will not be able to split votes.

 

[jixiaolan]

KJ does have his own appeal but as in most of the multi-corner fights, the focus will be on the strongest contender when there is an apparent one. Even David Marshall running on an independent ticket failed to garner 5% vote in a 6 corner fight in 1963 election. Nevertheless, the 1% is on a low side especially so when the clown managed to collect 4.45% in GE2011.

bro,
but me gave KJ a 1% in the prediction list :o:o:o

 

[zhihau]

Nevertheless, the 1% is on a low side especially so when the clown managed to collect 4.45% in GE2011.

despite me predicting that he would garner 0.5% of the votes, me said before that the green clown can tao chioh if he got more than 100 votes :p:p:p

 

[brocoli]

By now, we all know that WP won the Punggol East by-election because there are localised problems in PE and the AIM saga convinced the voters to make a decisive swap. The residents were tired of PAP, aspired for change and willing to take a sacrifice on a young lady who have very much yet to prove herself. Who is LLL and what does she stands for? Is she even the most qualified person within the party to represent WP in this by-election? Personally, I rate Yee Jenn Jong, Angela and Glenda Han ahead of LLL. Still it was a whopping 13% vote swing. I could only concluded that it was a ride on the coattail based on party branding and the bitter ground sentiment. She happened to be in the right place, at the right time, to ride on a sea of change.

r u really a party member

Angela and Glenda Han are finished politically...
fly by night politician...

 

[CPT (NS) BRANDON]

despite me predicting that he would garner 0.5% of the votes, me said before that the green clown can tao chioh if he got more than 100 votes :p:p:p

Since he gathered 163 votes, should he feel proud of his performance?

Maybe he can have a "victory parade" to thank the 0.5% who voted for him?

By the way, I wonder exactly what these 163 people were thinking? Why would they even vote for him? I would rather vote for the PAP. What has Desmond Lim shown to suggest that he can actually be a competent MP? Did the 163 people vote for him out of pity?

 

[zhihau]

Did the 163 people vote for him out of pity?

the 168 could be friends or relatives, it's really anyone's guess :o:o:o