Influenza is the infection. The cause of death is pneumonia.
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You should worry a lot more about the Flu.
- Thread starter Leongsam
- Start date
Influenza is the infection. The cause of death is pneumonia.
My figures are not speculation they come from mathematical modeling.
How to avoid coronavirus on flights: Forget masks, says top airline doctor
7 Feb, 2020 11:32am
4 minutes to read
By: Kyunghee Park
Forget face masks and rubber gloves. The best way to avoid the coronavirus is frequent hand washing, according to a medical adviser to the world's airlines.
The virus can't survive long on seats or armrests, so physical contact with another person carries the greatest risk of infection on a flight, said David Powell, a physician and medical adviser to the International Air Transport Association. Masks and gloves do a better job of spreading bugs than stopping them, he said.
As concern mounts about the scale of the outbreak, carriers from United Airlines to Cathay Pacific Airways have scrapped thousands of flights to China. Here is an edited transcript from an interview with Powell. IATA represents about 290 airlines and more than 80% of global air traffic.
Q: Is there a risk of becoming contaminated with the virus on a plane?
A: The risk of catching a serious viral infection on an aircraft is low. The air supply to a modern airliner is very different from a movie theater or an office building. The air is a combination of fresh air and recirculated air, about half each. The recirculated air goes through filters of the exact same type that we use in surgical operating theaters. That supplied air is guaranteed to be 99.97% (or better) free of viruses and other particles. So the risk, if there is one, does not come from the supplied air. It comes from other people.
Q: What are the chances of getting the virus by touching the seats, armrest or any of the objects on a plane?
A: Viruses and other microbes like to live on living surfaces like us. Just shaking hands with somebody will be a greater risk by far than some dry surface that has no biological material on it. The survival of viruses on surfaces isn't great, so it's believed that normal cleaning, and then the extra cleaning in the event that someone was discovered to be contagious, is the appropriate procedure. Will people stop getting together inside an airplane? I would respond by asking: Will I stop going to the movies, or sports games, or concerts or conferences? I don't think so.
READ MORE:
• Premium - Coronavirus: New Zealanders among hundreds of foreign pilots out of work in China
• Coronavirus: 70 new deaths in one day in virus 'ground zero'
• Coronavirus evacuation flight: Around 60 people fail to board flight
• Coronavirus: China consul general in Auckland says some countries are overreacting
Q: What's important if you are on a plane to ensure you don't get infected?
A: Hand hygiene -- because contrary to what people think, the hands are the way that these viruses most efficiently spread. Top of the list is frequent hand washing, hand sanitizing, or both. Avoid touching your face. If you cough or sneeze, it's important to cover your face with a sleeve. Better yet, a tissue to be disposed of carefully, and then sanitizing the hands afterward. Washing your hands and drying them is the best procedure. When that's not easy to do, alcohol-based sanitizer is a good second-best.
Q: Does wearing masks and gloves help prevent infections?
A: First of all, masks. There's very limited evidence of benefit, if any, in a casual situation. Masks are useful for those who are unwell to protect other people from them. But wearing a mask all the time will be ineffective. It will allow viruses to be transmitted around it, through it and worse still, if it becomes moist it will encourage the growth of viruses and bacteria. Gloves are probably even worse, because people put on gloves and then touch everything they would have touched with their hands. So it just becomes another way of transferring micro-organisms. And inside the gloves, your hands get hot and sweaty, which is a really good environment for microbes to grow.
Q: Is shutting borders the answer to containing the spread of the virus?
A: One thing that's changed in the world is the ability for infections to travel rapidly from one location to another and it's true that aviation is part of that. At the same time, aviation is essential to dealing with outbreaks like this. And this is why we have collaboration with the World Health Organization and IATA that's been in place for several years. If countries just shut down during disease outbreaks, as happened in west Africa with Ebola, that can make things much worse. During that outbreak, the country struggled, WHO couldn't get their people in, they couldn't get biological samples out. The economic impact of being shut off made things worse. General travel bans can make things worse. It can encourage people to travel in secret, which means you lose control of it.
Q: When can we safely say that the worst may be over?
A: The number of cases have continued to increase at around about 16% to 20% each day. Until we get to the point where those numbers are declining, we couldn't say we turned the corner.
7 Feb, 2020 11:32am
4 minutes to read
By: Kyunghee Park
Forget face masks and rubber gloves. The best way to avoid the coronavirus is frequent hand washing, according to a medical adviser to the world's airlines.
The virus can't survive long on seats or armrests, so physical contact with another person carries the greatest risk of infection on a flight, said David Powell, a physician and medical adviser to the International Air Transport Association. Masks and gloves do a better job of spreading bugs than stopping them, he said.
As concern mounts about the scale of the outbreak, carriers from United Airlines to Cathay Pacific Airways have scrapped thousands of flights to China. Here is an edited transcript from an interview with Powell. IATA represents about 290 airlines and more than 80% of global air traffic.
Q: Is there a risk of becoming contaminated with the virus on a plane?
A: The risk of catching a serious viral infection on an aircraft is low. The air supply to a modern airliner is very different from a movie theater or an office building. The air is a combination of fresh air and recirculated air, about half each. The recirculated air goes through filters of the exact same type that we use in surgical operating theaters. That supplied air is guaranteed to be 99.97% (or better) free of viruses and other particles. So the risk, if there is one, does not come from the supplied air. It comes from other people.
Q: What are the chances of getting the virus by touching the seats, armrest or any of the objects on a plane?
A: Viruses and other microbes like to live on living surfaces like us. Just shaking hands with somebody will be a greater risk by far than some dry surface that has no biological material on it. The survival of viruses on surfaces isn't great, so it's believed that normal cleaning, and then the extra cleaning in the event that someone was discovered to be contagious, is the appropriate procedure. Will people stop getting together inside an airplane? I would respond by asking: Will I stop going to the movies, or sports games, or concerts or conferences? I don't think so.
READ MORE:
• Premium - Coronavirus: New Zealanders among hundreds of foreign pilots out of work in China
• Coronavirus: 70 new deaths in one day in virus 'ground zero'
• Coronavirus evacuation flight: Around 60 people fail to board flight
• Coronavirus: China consul general in Auckland says some countries are overreacting
Q: What's important if you are on a plane to ensure you don't get infected?
A: Hand hygiene -- because contrary to what people think, the hands are the way that these viruses most efficiently spread. Top of the list is frequent hand washing, hand sanitizing, or both. Avoid touching your face. If you cough or sneeze, it's important to cover your face with a sleeve. Better yet, a tissue to be disposed of carefully, and then sanitizing the hands afterward. Washing your hands and drying them is the best procedure. When that's not easy to do, alcohol-based sanitizer is a good second-best.
Q: Does wearing masks and gloves help prevent infections?
A: First of all, masks. There's very limited evidence of benefit, if any, in a casual situation. Masks are useful for those who are unwell to protect other people from them. But wearing a mask all the time will be ineffective. It will allow viruses to be transmitted around it, through it and worse still, if it becomes moist it will encourage the growth of viruses and bacteria. Gloves are probably even worse, because people put on gloves and then touch everything they would have touched with their hands. So it just becomes another way of transferring micro-organisms. And inside the gloves, your hands get hot and sweaty, which is a really good environment for microbes to grow.
Q: Is shutting borders the answer to containing the spread of the virus?
A: One thing that's changed in the world is the ability for infections to travel rapidly from one location to another and it's true that aviation is part of that. At the same time, aviation is essential to dealing with outbreaks like this. And this is why we have collaboration with the World Health Organization and IATA that's been in place for several years. If countries just shut down during disease outbreaks, as happened in west Africa with Ebola, that can make things much worse. During that outbreak, the country struggled, WHO couldn't get their people in, they couldn't get biological samples out. The economic impact of being shut off made things worse. General travel bans can make things worse. It can encourage people to travel in secret, which means you lose control of it.
Q: When can we safely say that the worst may be over?
A: The number of cases have continued to increase at around about 16% to 20% each day. Until we get to the point where those numbers are declining, we couldn't say we turned the corner.
i just went through 2 variants (and bouts) of flu the past 6.9 weeks. 1st variant was weak. 2nd was strong.
Oh come on...misinformation from @Leongsam ? is isnt his fault if you fail to understand what he is saying..
i assumed you are using the number of death so far/ total number of reported cases in china to get the 2%.
as of 8 feb 700death/34000 confirm cases = 2%
let me tell you what is wrong with your calculation/assumption and why sam is correct in every sense when he say the percentage is lower than 2%
here are some clues for u to digest first.
1. unlike the common flu, one NEED a test to confirm one has the new coronavirus, how many test do u think they can do a day and how many people have they tested so far. (the recorded highest new cases is 5K++ a day if i remember correctly)..
2. i assume they can do 7K test a day... 7000 *100 days = 700,000 cases in 100 days.
3. it is now slightly more than 5 weeks (37 days) into the outbreak..
4. wuhan population is 11mil. china has a population of 1.3bil
5. how many people who are positive and has not been tested yet
6. i believe it is already a community acquired virus in wuhan based on the number of people who were infect when they return from wuhan and i estimate about 1/4 or 1/f of the population in wuhan has it.
7. now work that out and tell me it is not less than 2%
i assumed you are using the number of death so far/ total number of reported cases in china to get the 2%.
as of 8 feb 700death/34000 confirm cases = 2%
let me tell you what is wrong with your calculation/assumption and why sam is correct in every sense when he say the percentage is lower than 2%
here are some clues for u to digest first.
1. unlike the common flu, one NEED a test to confirm one has the new coronavirus, how many test do u think they can do a day and how many people have they tested so far. (the recorded highest new cases is 5K++ a day if i remember correctly)..
2. i assume they can do 7K test a day... 7000 *100 days = 700,000 cases in 100 days.
3. it is now slightly more than 5 weeks (37 days) into the outbreak..
4. wuhan population is 11mil. china has a population of 1.3bil
5. how many people who are positive and has not been tested yet
6. i believe it is already a community acquired virus in wuhan based on the number of people who were infect when they return from wuhan and i estimate about 1/4 or 1/f of the population in wuhan has it.
7. now work that out and tell me it is not less than 2%
Last edited:
This Wuhan virus will soon be just another addition to the corona virus group which causes the common cold and it will become seasonal just like the rest. The idea that it can be eliminated is rather far fetched unless big pharma actually finds it worthwhile to develop a vaccine.
In Hong Kong, it is 1/25 = 4% mortality rate. In Phillippinnes, it is 1/3 = 33% fatality rate. Singapore has 2 in ICU with infected about 33. So should not China and the rest of the world worry more about the Wuhan virus over seasonal flu? Is there any case ever about a healthy 31 year old doctor who contacted the seasonal flu and die of it weeks later?
I can't believe anyone in China, or elsewhere, care about the seasonal flu,common cold or a running nose. Only in the US those Ph.D would talk about: "we should care more about the flu than this novel corona virus." The Chinese politburo and their medical advisers cannot be that ignorant about this epidemic.
EDIT: Let's say the three in the Philippines are from Wuhan. A small sample of three from Wuhan having already one death should be a great cause of concern.
Chan Rasjid
I can't believe anyone in China, or elsewhere, care about the seasonal flu,common cold or a running nose. Only in the US those Ph.D would talk about: "we should care more about the flu than this novel corona virus." The Chinese politburo and their medical advisers cannot be that ignorant about this epidemic.
EDIT: Let's say the three in the Philippines are from Wuhan. A small sample of three from Wuhan having already one death should be a great cause of concern.
Chan Rasjid
when u say"Hong Kong, it is 1/25 = 4% mortality rate. In Phillippinnes, it is 1/3 = 33% fatality rate ........."
in the same context why didnt you use the statitics from the other countries
Australia and many other countries have 0% death rate.
Flu isnt just a worrying cause for the USA. it is one of the leading cause of death around the world..
In Singapore, pneumonia is the 2nd leading cause of death in Singapore at about 20% of all total death for the past few years.
of course i am not saying all pneumonia cases are virus caused, however 20% is still a big number , death from diabetes related illness is at less than 2% in Singapore.
https://www.moh.gov.sg/resources-statistics/singapore-health-facts/principal-causes-of-death
look..i am not saying, nCoV is not a concern at all... but there is really no need to be paranoid now.
2019–20 nCoV outbreak by country and territory
in the same context why didnt you use the statitics from the other countries
Australia and many other countries have 0% death rate.
Flu isnt just a worrying cause for the USA. it is one of the leading cause of death around the world..
In Singapore, pneumonia is the 2nd leading cause of death in Singapore at about 20% of all total death for the past few years.
of course i am not saying all pneumonia cases are virus caused, however 20% is still a big number , death from diabetes related illness is at less than 2% in Singapore.
https://www.moh.gov.sg/resources-statistics/singapore-health-facts/principal-causes-of-death
look..i am not saying, nCoV is not a concern at all... but there is really no need to be paranoid now.
2019–20 nCoV outbreak by country and territory
| Country or region | Confirmed | Deaths | Recoveries | Ref. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34,564 | 722 | 2,050 | [1][2] |
64 | 0 | 0 | [1][2] | |
| 33 | 0 | 2 | [1][2] |
| 26 | 1 | 0 | [1][2] |
| 25 | 0 | 4 | [1][2] |
| 25 | 0 | 9 | [1][2] |
| 24 | 0 | 1 | [1][2] |
| 17 | 0 | 1 | [1][2] |
| 15 | 0 | 5 | [1][2] |
| 15 | 0 | 1 | [1][2] |
| 14 | 0 | 0 | [1][2] |
| 13 | 0 | 3 | [1][2] |
| 12 | 0 | 3 | [1][2] |
| 10 | 0 | 0 | [1][2] |
| 7 | 0 | 0 | [1][2] |
| 7 | 0 | 0 | [1][2] |
| 6 | 0 | 0 | [1][2] |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | [1][2] |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | [1][2] |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | [1][2] |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | [1][2] |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | [1][2] |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | [1][2] |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | [1][2] |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | [1][2] |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | [1][2] |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | [1][2] |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | [1][2] |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | [1][2] |
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