The wargaming tested 24 different scenarios focused on China attempting to seize the island by invasion in 2026. Crucial was the United States: without America’s help, Taiwan would be conquered by the People’s Liberation Army in three months or less.
The war game assumed the invasion would begin with an opening bombardment by China that destroys most of Taiwan’s navy and air force in a few hours. The Chinese navy would encircle Taiwan and begin ferrying a landing force of thousands of PLA soldiers and their equipment across the Taiwan Strait.
In what the war gamers called the most likely scenario, Taiwan’s army would bog the invaders down on the coast.
“Meanwhile US submarines, bombers, and fighter/attack aircraft, often reinforced by Japan Self-Defense Forces, rapidly cripple the Chinese amphibious fleet,” the report said.
“China’s strikes on Japanese bases and US surface ships cannot change the result: Taiwan remains autonomous,” it said.
Matthew Cancian of the US Naval War College said there were crucial variables on which that success depends.
First, he said, Taiwan itself must be determined to fight back.
Secondly, Japan must give its permission for the United States to launch counterattacks from its bases on Japanese territory.
Without that, Cancian said, “then the US intervention would not be enough to continue Taiwan’s autonomy.”
In such cases the human losses would be high, some 10,000 in the first weeks of the war. The war game raised important unknowns, such as whether the United States would risk nuclear war by attacking China directly.
It also asked if the US and Japanese public would be prepared to accept the losses that came with defending Taiwan, saying US losses could damage Washington’s ability to project global power for a very long time.
“The United States might win a pyrrhic victory, suffering more in the long run than the ‘defeated’ Chinese,” the report said.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...l-but-at-huge-us-cost-analysts-war-game-finds
