There are many good reasons to believe that India could become the predominant power in the Indian Ocean region, at least in the long run. Geographically, it dominates the area. It has a massive population, a huge military, and is on its way to becoming one of the world’s largest economies. Importantly, many in India’s elite see the domination of the Indian Ocean as part of India’s destiny: they see it as natural that India should be the leading power in the ocean that bears its name.
But one should be careful about drawing straight-line projections from all of this. While India may in the future acquire the material capabilities to dominate the Indian Ocean, there are still real questions as to whether the ocean will become India’s Ocean. India will need to overcome many constraints, both internal and external, that limit its strategic role in the region.
