Why PAP might lose more votes in Hougang

[sirus]

Must also add:
2. Police incompetency in handling foreign offenders. Ionescu,

Perhaps this could be one of the reason why Georgy and gang got annihilated in GE 2011.
I just hope for more of PAP bad policies, good reason why they are voted out in 2016.

 

[Perspective]

I would say before talking about up or down, we have to look at the last result of WP in Hougang which was a 64% and quite a peak for an opposition result. Chiam in PP got 68% in PP in 1991 and this is the second highest ever for an opposition.

Hence, given the high bar and that the seat was vacated for not-too-good reasons (said by TFBH), I expect WP's votes to drop. WP/opposition/non-PAP supporters, before firing me, do note that I am not wanting to agree with fat insects. A drop would be nothing negative - WP might still get a high 61% to 62% and I had a thread that said whatever scenario that pans out would be good for WP.

 

[scroobal]

I actual expect the votes for WP to increase. PAP as the govt is assured and nearly everything is run at national level, the WP town council is fully functional, the 2011 GE and PE are good trends that do not favour the PAP. People generally are trend followers. Policies run at National level are the very reason why the PAP fears BE and 1991 BEES is a good indicator.

The above however can turn the other way if the PAP candidate is not DC but someone who is solid gold and if the Govt resorts to pork barrel politics.

The consideration is that we are moving water uphill once you crossed the 60% mark. At this level, the PAP candidate credentials will appeal to swing voters. You can be assured that they will not introduce a candidate the calibre of TPL, FHM or Steven Tan.

 

[Perspective]

I actual expect the votes for WP to increase. PAP as the govt is assured and nearly everything is run at national level, the WP town council is fully functional, the 2011 GE and PE are good trends that do not favour the PAP. People generally are trend followers. Policies run at National level are the very reason why the PAP fears BE and 1991 BEES is a good indicator.

Those are good points, but would it be hard to expect WP to get, say 67% in Hougang and PAP 33%. That's quite a peak.

 

[scroobal]

Agree with you.

It has to be DC firstly.

I have watched WP under LTK over the years and realised that work on the ground is the key. SDP and James Gomes on the other hand thought differently. Chiam was similar and the internet was never in his frame. Female voters also prefer the personal touch. Sylvia has also grown on stature. Lets not forget Pritam and CSM. They are now better known. Its quite a powerful combination.

Those are good points, but would it be hard to expect WP to get, say 67% in Hougang and PAP 33%. That's quite a peak.

 

[methink]

At this level, the PAP candidate credentials will appeal to swing voters. You can be assured that they will not introduce a candidate the calibre of TPL, FHM or Steven Tan.

Whoever they put there will still be beaten fairly and squarely. Now who do they have?

The calibre of their candidates is nothing to shout about. In fact it has been going downhill and very questionable... ppl such as Janil, Vikram, Kee Chiu, etc

Even if it is Georgie Boy, he too will fare badly. BE is for the opposition to lose. The underdog which is the opposition, has the edge always. I expect a bigger margin from a restive ppl.

 

[Clone]

How about WP feeling the BEES effect this time round?

With already 5 Oppo MPs in Parliament, the neutrals will be more at ease to vote for the ruling party!