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What is LKY trying to say?

loneshark

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http://www.forbes.com/sites/currentevents/2013/02/13/declining-populations-make-peaceful-neighbors/

Declining Populations Make Peaceful Neighbors

This story appears in the March 4, 2013 issue of Forbes.

Lee Kuan Yew, Contributor

When a nation’s population is growing it is usually accompanied by a sense of optimism, which is then followed by a desire for expansion. This was the case in both Germany and Japan when WWII broke out.

In 1931 Japan’s population was 64.5 million and occupied 145,882 square miles of land. (Its total fertility rate, or TFR, reached 4.1 by the late 1930s.) Japan cast its eye on Manchuria, seeing it as a source of limitless natural resources and as a buffer between itself and Russia, and invaded in September 1931

China‘s population was 492.1 million and occupied an area of 3.7 million square miles. But it was not a united land, which made it weak. Japan carried out skirmishes against China during the ensuing years, but in mid-1937 the conflicts escalated into full-scale war. By the end of October 1938 China’s Kuomintang government had retreated south to Chungking, and by 1941 Japan had captured all of China’s coastal cities and large tracts of the neighboring countryside, as well as northern and southern French Indochina

In July 1941 the U.S. government issued an ultimatum to Japan: withdraw from Indochina or the U.S. would impose an oil embargo on Japan. Remember that in 1941 the U.S. had a population of more than 130 million and a far more powerful industrial base than Japan had. Nevertheless, on Dec. 7, 1941 Japan took a huge gamble and without warning launched more than 350 fighters, bombers and torpedo planes in two waves from six aircraft carriers, attacking American naval vessels at Pearl Harbor. (Fortunately for the U.S. its aircraft carriers were out at sea and escaped the surprise attack.) Japan simultaneously invaded the whole of Southeast Asia in order to gain control of the Dutch East Indies’ oil.

Inevitably, the U.S. rebuilt its navy, and during the Battle of Midway in June 1942 sank most of those six Japanese aircraft carriers and their support vessels. However, the Japanese proved to be intrepid fighters, willing to fight to the death rather than surrender. Japan’s army became the most brutal and merciless in the world. The Battle of Iwo Jima was so ferocious that afterward the Americans estimated they would lose a million men if they attempted to take the Japanese mainland. Instead they dropped two atomic bombs, one on Hiroshima and the other on Nagasaki, which put paid to Japan’s ambitions of empire in Asia.

A similar situation occurred in Germany. Its TFR in 1939 was 2.6. Among other things, Germany wanted lebensraum (living space) for its people. Hitler pushed east during WWII to annihilate the Slavic peoples in Ukraine and Russia so those lands could be populated with Germans. But he and his generals underestimated the endurance and valor of the Russian people, as well as the bitterly cold winter conditions under which they would be fighting. Consequently, they suffered heavy casualties at the hands of the Russian armed forces.

Both Japan and Germany now have declining birth rates. Germany’s TFR was 1.4 in 2012, or about eight births per thousand people; Japan’s has also dropped to 1.4. By 2060 it is estimated that Japan’s current population of 128 million will have dropped to 87 million. Neither nation has the need nor the stomach to start another war.

One reason for the world’s relative peace and stability today is that all developed countries have a TFR of less than 2.1. (Singapore’s is 1.2.) Some fast-growing developing countries also have low TFRs; for instance, China’s TFR for 2012 is estimated to be 1.6. Such countries no longer have a need to go searching for lebensraum .

But many developing countries have high TFRs, the largest of these being India, with its 2012 TFR estimated to be 2.6. This means more overcrowding and inadequate infrastructure, schools, and medical and social services. Africa has even higher TFRs, with many of its countries between 4 and 7, far higher than the replacement rate of 2.1.

The world has suffered the consequences of expanding populations before. What looms on the horizon? And will we be prepared to confront it?
 

watchman8

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Interesting perspective. Assuming he is not talking local politics, he is basically saying the future conflict has high chance of being triggered by developing nations with high TFR.
 

zhihau

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the future conflict has high chance of being triggered by developing nations with high TFR.

why did he stop short of expressing his disdain for the 6.9million population in Singapore? it baffles me :*::*::*:
 

watchman8

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why did he stop short of expressing his disdain for the 6.9million population in Singapore? it baffles me :*::*::*:
Its for Forbes magazine, so he can't spout nonsense like in shit times interviews. Probably one of his secretaries wrote it for him.
 

metalmickey

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http://leewatch.info/2011/05/14/lee-kuan-yew-resigns-from-cabinet/

Remember his resignation letter? I found this particular passage baffling at that time. "But the younger team must always have in mind the interests of the older generation. This generation who has contributed to Singapore must be well-looked after."

In retrospect the resignation letter is his way of dissenting from the way that the PAP has been conducting itself in recent years. The LKY we know was one who balanced his desire to rule with an iron fist with an understanding that he needed to take care of his guys. The new generation of PAP may not have this balance.
 

kingrant

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I think Princeling son wants 6.9 million to invade Malaysia and bring the hinterland to Singapore. Under his Generalship, I have no doubt that he will succeed where his Papa had failed.

For a start, we can send in a small force to take over Pasir Gudang Port and demand rent, like the Karam Sultan.
 
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kensington

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He's spouting nonsense. Probably the goo thau beh bin making fun of him.

Shameful that the less well off people his generation have to struggle on day to day living whilst his ilks squirreling all the money. Yes, Lao Lee, hate to say this but shroud has no pocket, even your PAP's emblazoned shroud is no exception.
 

GOD IS MY DOG

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the Old Fool is truly senile liao....................

talk nonsense never mind......................the article was written by one of the PAP lapdogs for him and he just anyhow claim he's the writer.............
 

jw5

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That he knows all, he knows best, his family members are the best, what he says is always right, if you disagree with him you are wrong, whoever agrees with him is for him, whoever disagrees with him is against him, if you want him to like you you better agree with him and be like him, anyone who thinks or says diifferent from him is against him.................."

Oh, you mean in that specific article and not generally. Okok.
 

Fook Seng

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What has TFR to do with lebensraum? TFR is a ratio, a growth index. By itself, it does not equate to a need for living space or lebensraum if living space is already adequate for the size of population. So population density is more important when it comes to the need for lebensraum, not TFR per se. If the population density attains a high figure due to immigration even if the TFR is low, the need for lebensraum will be there and Singapore is a good example. On the other hand, even when there is no high population density, but when a high TFR (or, I must say, a high immigration rate) is coupled with a slow growing economy or, specifically with a shortfall in essential items of living e.g. oil and other forms of energy, staple foodstuffs, clean water etc, it could also lead to a need to satisfy this shortfall by looking for it in some neighbouring countries. A wealthy country that has everything that it requires is too engrossed with its own enjoyment of wealth to start a new war. Even the many oil proxy wars started by the United States were because supply of a critical commodity was being threatened.
 
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