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Chitchat What happened in Saudi Arabia in the last 3 days ?
- Thread starter scroobal
- Start date
The clergy point is important. Something that I forgot. They are amongst the political players that are the most resilient. And they do have the ability to move people at a level that that others can't touch.
And yes on the Shah of Iran. Not only did the US and France get it wrong, so did the Iranian youths in jean and western attire who led the revolt against the Shah and welcomed the Ayatollah only to pay a heavy price. Now the women have gone back in time and back to second class in their society.
The National Guard made up along tribal lines and closely linked with the clergy at grassroots level is a factor that cannot be ignored.
I guess KSA is in a state of flux with no one any wiser what would come of it.
And yes on the Shah of Iran. Not only did the US and France get it wrong, so did the Iranian youths in jean and western attire who led the revolt against the Shah and welcomed the Ayatollah only to pay a heavy price. Now the women have gone back in time and back to second class in their society.
The National Guard made up along tribal lines and closely linked with the clergy at grassroots level is a factor that cannot be ignored.
I guess KSA is in a state of flux with no one any wiser what would come of it.
from13 NOV 2017
“Iran has already spread conflict around the Middle East, in Yemen, in Iraq and Syria and Lebanon. We are far from alone in recognizing the Iranian threat to the Middle East. The leading Arab countries, Saudi Arabia, see things exactly as we do. They are right,”
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Guess where he's heading instead - I'll skip the country I am suppose to be running and head to my ex-colonial masters instead!
One point on Iran: Hard as it is to believe, Iran is probably one of the most liberal Muslim countries in the ME. probably even more liberal than Malaysia!. It has today come a long way from the Ayatollah days. Hassan Rouhani the present leader has played a clever game of balancing the demands of the clergy and those of the more liberal young in the country. He is a far cry from Ahmadinejad who took the country backwards. Iranian women are not second class in Iran. They drive, ride bikes, work in hotels at the recption, restaurants, date openly in public, travel freely on their own, own and run businesses and are not legally required to wear the chardor in public. Most of the ladies just wear a head scarf. One of the failings of the Shah was that his father had actually banned the chador and while later the Shah did "unban" it, wearing a chador was still discouraged !! How not to get kicked out?
As commended previously this is a very acute observation and here is a very timely piece on this very issue with interesting current takeaways:
The entire Saudi paradox was distilled into that cartoon: The country produces, sponsors, shelters and feeds the Islamism that threatens its foundations and its future.
Wahhabism is also, of course, one of the matrices of global jihadism today: an ideological and financial source of the Islamists’ power and their constellation of fundamentalist mosques, television networks dedicated to sermonizing, and various political parties throughout the Muslim world. Saudi Arabia feeds the hand that is killing it, little by little, and other countries as well.
Reform in Saudi Arabia now seems necessary — and yet, at the same time, impossible. How will the royal family manage to reject the clergy’s support, stop the financing of fundamentalist networks and bring about nothing short of several revolutions regarding social rights? The kingdom’s stability is at stake and, as a consequence, that of the entire region, too.
Whatever the real effect of these changes in Saudi Arabia, they already are being felt elsewhere. If this country, the motherland of fatwas, undertakes reforms, Islamists throughout the world will have to follow suit or risk winding up on the wrong side of orthodoxy.
In Algeria, for example, the hard-liners’ discomfort is subtly palpable.
But conservative newspapers and Islamist editorial writers — generally keen on all matters Saudi and quick to comment on any slight against Islam — are mostly quiet this time, or timid in their defense of Wahhabism. In mosques as well, silence dominates.
If Saudi Arabia reforms, they will lose their mantle of tolerant Islamists and their position on Algeria’s political chessboard. The Saudi crown prince, by casting himself as more moderate than moderates elsewhere, is pulling the rug from under their feet.
And so all manner of Islamists are feeling the anxiety of being orphaned. The moderate camp, blindsided, may try to play catch-up with the prince. But the fundamentalist camp, bereft of its familiar markers, may turn against the Saudi kingdom to claim a new kind of legitimacy — and wage a sort of holy war against the holy land.
http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Report-Saudi-document-lays-out-plans-for-peace-with-Israel-514200
Throw into MBS' strategy play with Israel by pressuring the Palestinians to accept Trump's peace plan (what a win for Trump's ego that would be), aspirations for being a nuclear power (because Israel would never give that up) therefore happily pointing the missiles at Tehran as a permanent deterrent against the Iranian/Shia encroachment - this is really turning into quite the spectacle....will MBS be able to sell the deal to the Palestinians? the other Arab states (to absorb them as citizens)? and expect Iran to give in?
"Any rapprochement between the Kingdom and Israel depends on the parity of the relationship between the two countries. At the military level, Israel is the only country possessing nuclear weapons in the Middle East, which gives it superiority in the regional balance of power. Accordingly, the Kingdom should be allowed to possess such deterrent elements or Israel must demilitarize."
The report stipulates that "Saudi Arabia will harness its diplomatic capabilities and political relations with the Palestinian Authority and with Arab and Islamic countries to facilitate finding reasonable, acceptable and innovative solutions to the disputed issues contained in the Arab peace initiative presented by Saudi Arabia, and through the adoption of innovative solutions by the United States."
Among the guidelines Riyadh is reportedly proposing are: the subordination of the city of Jerusalem to international sovereignty, the permanent settlement of Palestinian refugees in the West Bank or their naturalization by other Muslim states and the holding of a major summit to launch a final peace agreement.
In exchange, the report says, Saudi Arabia will demand Washington ratchet up US and international sanctions against Iran for its ballistic missile program and its sponsorship of terrorism around the world and revisit the P5+1 nuclear agreement to make sure it is strictly enforced. The document also demands "intensive intelligence cooperation in the fight against organized crime and drug trafficking supported by Iran and Hezbollah."
Throw into MBS' strategy play with Israel by pressuring the Palestinians to accept Trump's peace plan (what a win for Trump's ego that would be), aspirations for being a nuclear power (because Israel would never give that up) therefore happily pointing the missiles at Tehran as a permanent deterrent against the Iranian/Shia encroachment - this is really turning into quite the spectacle....will MBS be able to sell the deal to the Palestinians? the other Arab states (to absorb them as citizens)? and expect Iran to give in?
"Any rapprochement between the Kingdom and Israel depends on the parity of the relationship between the two countries. At the military level, Israel is the only country possessing nuclear weapons in the Middle East, which gives it superiority in the regional balance of power. Accordingly, the Kingdom should be allowed to possess such deterrent elements or Israel must demilitarize."
The report stipulates that "Saudi Arabia will harness its diplomatic capabilities and political relations with the Palestinian Authority and with Arab and Islamic countries to facilitate finding reasonable, acceptable and innovative solutions to the disputed issues contained in the Arab peace initiative presented by Saudi Arabia, and through the adoption of innovative solutions by the United States."
Among the guidelines Riyadh is reportedly proposing are: the subordination of the city of Jerusalem to international sovereignty, the permanent settlement of Palestinian refugees in the West Bank or their naturalization by other Muslim states and the holding of a major summit to launch a final peace agreement.
In exchange, the report says, Saudi Arabia will demand Washington ratchet up US and international sanctions against Iran for its ballistic missile program and its sponsorship of terrorism around the world and revisit the P5+1 nuclear agreement to make sure it is strictly enforced. The document also demands "intensive intelligence cooperation in the fight against organized crime and drug trafficking supported by Iran and Hezbollah."
Again well pointed out - Basij is still an issue but they can be "managed" - but generally no chador is required and the Iranian girls just cover their hair with a light scarf (unlike our local girls with their hijabs) - very cosmopolitan and nobody really bothers you as a tourist (male or female). The visa of arrival process is getting better because it can be abit chaotic at the airport but if you are savvy enough you can figure it out easily.
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Looks like I have to catch up on Iran, shites etc. I have been reading up on UAE, Saudi etc with the help of Smiley in this forum. Huge World out there.
It will be good if our local Press get the heads out and cover the region occasionally.
It will be good if our local Press get the heads out and cover the region occasionally.
Of course, if Iran and Saudi Arabia do come to blows, it would take a heavy toll on both countries and the rest of the world. Unlike the sporadic launches from Yemen, Iran’s ballistic missiles are more than capable of overwhelming Saudi defenses. But they may not be precise enough to avoid hitting non-military targets. Saudi Arabia’s record of killing civilians in Yemen leaves little room for hope that it would be more careful in a fight against Iran.
A conflict involving two major crude oil producers would also send oil prices skyrocketing, especially since a big share of the trade relies on the route through the Persian Gulf. One can use the hike on the news of the Saudi royal purge as a kind of preview of what may happen.
And if the two nations do clash, other players are unlikely to just stand by. The usual proxy forces will be spun to action. A real mess with little gain can be predicted, which is why, hopefully, it will not happen.
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It’s the Arab way and not unexpected - blood money, hand back 30 camels, sign over 2 oases etc and stay in Europe.
Talal Sr did that until his mum pleaded for his returns after time spent in Egypt.
The fact that it was the Ritz says it all, their full undivided attention.
The photo of those sleeping on Ritz carpets covered with blankets was misleading - their minders I suppose.
Talal Sr did that until his mum pleaded for his returns after time spent in Egypt.
The fact that it was the Ritz says it all, their full undivided attention.
The photo of those sleeping on Ritz carpets covered with blankets was misleading - their minders I suppose.
Why Saudi Arabia and Iran are bitter rivals
By Jonathan MarcusDefence and diplomatic correspondent
Image copyrightREUTERS/EPA
Image captionIran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (L) and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman
Saudi Arabia and Iran are at loggerheads. They have long been rivals, but it's all recently got a lot more tense. Here's why.
How come Saudi Arabia and Iran don't get along?
Saudi Arabia and Iran - two powerful neighbours - are locked in a fierce struggle for regional dominance.
The decades-old feud between them is exacerbated by religious differences. They each follow one of the two main sects in Islam - Iran is largely Shia Muslim, while Saudi Arabia sees itself as the leading Sunni Muslim power.
This religious schism is reflected in the wider map of the Middle East, where other countries have Sunni or Shia majorities, some of whom look towards Iran or Saudi Arabia for support or guidance.
Historically Saudi Arabia, a monarchy and home to the birthplace of Islam, saw itself as the leader of the Muslim world. However this was challenged in 1979 by the Islamic revolution in Iran which created a new type of state in the region - a kind of theocracy - that had an explicit goal of exporting this model beyond its own borders.
In the past 15 years in particular, the differences between Saudi Arabia and Iran have been sharpened by a series of events.
The 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq overthrew Saddam Hussein, a Sunni Arab who had been a major Iranian adversary. This removed a crucial military counter-weight to Iranian influence in Iraq, which has been rising since then.
Fast-forward to 2011 and uprisings across the Arab world caused political instability throughout the region. Iran and Saudi Arabia exploited these upheavals to expand their influence, notably in Syria, Bahrain and Yemen, further heightening mutual suspicions.
Iran's critics say it is intent on establishing itself or its proxies across the region, and achieve control of a land corridor stretching from Iran to the Mediterranean.
How have things suddenly got worse?
The strategic rivalry is heating up because Iran is in many ways winning the regional struggle.
In Syria, Iranian (and Russian) support for President Bashar al-Assad has largely routed rebel group groups backed by Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia is trying desperately to contain rising Iranian influence and the militaristic adventurism of the kingdom's young and impulsive Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman - the country's de facto ruler - is exacerbating regional tensions.
Media captionFive things about Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman
He is waging a war against rebels in Saudi Arabia's southern neighbour, Yemen, in part to stem perceived Iranian influence there, but after nearly three years this is proving a costly gamble.
Meanwhile in Lebanon, many observers believe the Saudis put pressure on the prime minister to resign in order to destabilise a country where Iran's ally, Shia militia group Hezbollah, leads a politically powerful bloc and controls a huge, heavily armed fighting force.
There are also external forces at play. Saudi Arabia has been emboldened by support from the Trump administration while Israel, which sees Iran as a mortal threat, is in a sense "backing" the Saudi effort to contain Iran.
Image copyrightEPA
The Jewish state is fearful of the encroachment of pro-Iranian fighters in Syria ever closer to its border.
Israel and Saudi Arabia were the two countries most resolutely opposed to the 2015 international agreement limiting Iran's nuclear programme, insisting that it did not go far enough to roll back any chance of Iran obtaining the bomb.
Who are their regional allies?
Broadly speaking the strategic map of the Middle East reflects the Shia-Sunni divide.
In the pro-Saudi camp are the other major Sunni actors in the Gulf - the UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain, as well as Egypt and Jordan.
In the Iranian camp is Syria's government, which has been strongly backed by Iran, and where pro-Iranian Shia militia groups, including the Lebanon-based Hezbollah, have played a prominent role in fighting predominantly Sunni rebel groups.
The Shia-dominated Iraqi government is also a close ally of Iran, though paradoxically it also retains a close relationship with Washington on whom it has depended for help in the struggle against so-called Islamic State.
How is the Saudi-Iranian rivalry being played out?
This is in many ways a regional equivalent of the Cold War, which pitted the US against the Soviet Union in a tense military standoff for many years.
Iran and Saudi Arabia are not directly fighting but they are engaged in a variety of proxy wars around the region.
Syria is an obvious example while in Yemen Saudi Arabia has accused Iran of supplying ballistic missiles fired at Saudi territory by the Shia Houthi rebel movement - an incident which heightened the war of words between the two countries.
Image copyrightREUTERS
Image captionYemen is one of a number of battlegrounds fuelling Iranian-Saudi tensions
But having become bogged down in Yemen and essentially defeated in Syria, Saudi Arabia seems to have its eye on Lebanon as the next proxy battlefield.
Lebanon risks being tipped into Syria-like chaos but few analysts see Saudi interests prevailing there.
Conflict in Lebanon could so easily draw in Israel in opposition to Hezbollah and this could lead to a third Israel-Lebanon war far more devastating than any of the previous encounters.
Some cynics wonder if the Saudi crown prince's game plan is to trigger a war between Israel and Hezbollah and deliver a heavy blow to the group this way!
Are we heading towards a direct war between Saudi Arabia and Iran?
So far Tehran and Riyadh have fought via proxies. Neither is really geared up for a direct war with the other but one successful rocket attack on the Saudi capital from Yemen could upset the apple cart.
Will Saudi Arabia go to war with Iran?
Media captionWill Saudi Arabia go to war with Iran?
One obvious area where they could come into direct conflict is in the waters of the Gulf, where they face each other across a maritime border.
But here too fighting could risk a much broader conflict. For the US and other Western powers, freedom of navigation in the Gulf is essential and any conflict that sought to block the waterway - vital for international shipping and oil transportation - could easily draw in US naval and air forces.
For a long time the US and its allies have seen Iran as a destabilising force in the Middle East. The Saudi leadership increasingly sees Iran as an existential threat and the crown prince seems willing to take whatever action he sees necessary, wherever he deems it necessary, to confront Tehran's rising influence.
The danger is that Saudi Arabia's new activism is fast making it a further source of volatility in the region.
By Jonathan MarcusDefence and diplomatic correspondent
- 5 hours ago
Image captionIran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (L) and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman
Saudi Arabia and Iran are at loggerheads. They have long been rivals, but it's all recently got a lot more tense. Here's why.
How come Saudi Arabia and Iran don't get along?
Saudi Arabia and Iran - two powerful neighbours - are locked in a fierce struggle for regional dominance.
The decades-old feud between them is exacerbated by religious differences. They each follow one of the two main sects in Islam - Iran is largely Shia Muslim, while Saudi Arabia sees itself as the leading Sunni Muslim power.
This religious schism is reflected in the wider map of the Middle East, where other countries have Sunni or Shia majorities, some of whom look towards Iran or Saudi Arabia for support or guidance.
Historically Saudi Arabia, a monarchy and home to the birthplace of Islam, saw itself as the leader of the Muslim world. However this was challenged in 1979 by the Islamic revolution in Iran which created a new type of state in the region - a kind of theocracy - that had an explicit goal of exporting this model beyond its own borders.
In the past 15 years in particular, the differences between Saudi Arabia and Iran have been sharpened by a series of events.
The 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq overthrew Saddam Hussein, a Sunni Arab who had been a major Iranian adversary. This removed a crucial military counter-weight to Iranian influence in Iraq, which has been rising since then.
Fast-forward to 2011 and uprisings across the Arab world caused political instability throughout the region. Iran and Saudi Arabia exploited these upheavals to expand their influence, notably in Syria, Bahrain and Yemen, further heightening mutual suspicions.
Iran's critics say it is intent on establishing itself or its proxies across the region, and achieve control of a land corridor stretching from Iran to the Mediterranean.
How have things suddenly got worse?
The strategic rivalry is heating up because Iran is in many ways winning the regional struggle.
In Syria, Iranian (and Russian) support for President Bashar al-Assad has largely routed rebel group groups backed by Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia is trying desperately to contain rising Iranian influence and the militaristic adventurism of the kingdom's young and impulsive Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman - the country's de facto ruler - is exacerbating regional tensions.
Media captionFive things about Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman
He is waging a war against rebels in Saudi Arabia's southern neighbour, Yemen, in part to stem perceived Iranian influence there, but after nearly three years this is proving a costly gamble.
Meanwhile in Lebanon, many observers believe the Saudis put pressure on the prime minister to resign in order to destabilise a country where Iran's ally, Shia militia group Hezbollah, leads a politically powerful bloc and controls a huge, heavily armed fighting force.
There are also external forces at play. Saudi Arabia has been emboldened by support from the Trump administration while Israel, which sees Iran as a mortal threat, is in a sense "backing" the Saudi effort to contain Iran.
The Jewish state is fearful of the encroachment of pro-Iranian fighters in Syria ever closer to its border.
Israel and Saudi Arabia were the two countries most resolutely opposed to the 2015 international agreement limiting Iran's nuclear programme, insisting that it did not go far enough to roll back any chance of Iran obtaining the bomb.
Who are their regional allies?
Broadly speaking the strategic map of the Middle East reflects the Shia-Sunni divide.
In the pro-Saudi camp are the other major Sunni actors in the Gulf - the UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain, as well as Egypt and Jordan.
In the Iranian camp is Syria's government, which has been strongly backed by Iran, and where pro-Iranian Shia militia groups, including the Lebanon-based Hezbollah, have played a prominent role in fighting predominantly Sunni rebel groups.
The Shia-dominated Iraqi government is also a close ally of Iran, though paradoxically it also retains a close relationship with Washington on whom it has depended for help in the struggle against so-called Islamic State.
How is the Saudi-Iranian rivalry being played out?
This is in many ways a regional equivalent of the Cold War, which pitted the US against the Soviet Union in a tense military standoff for many years.
Iran and Saudi Arabia are not directly fighting but they are engaged in a variety of proxy wars around the region.
Syria is an obvious example while in Yemen Saudi Arabia has accused Iran of supplying ballistic missiles fired at Saudi territory by the Shia Houthi rebel movement - an incident which heightened the war of words between the two countries.
Image captionYemen is one of a number of battlegrounds fuelling Iranian-Saudi tensions
But having become bogged down in Yemen and essentially defeated in Syria, Saudi Arabia seems to have its eye on Lebanon as the next proxy battlefield.
Lebanon risks being tipped into Syria-like chaos but few analysts see Saudi interests prevailing there.
Conflict in Lebanon could so easily draw in Israel in opposition to Hezbollah and this could lead to a third Israel-Lebanon war far more devastating than any of the previous encounters.
Some cynics wonder if the Saudi crown prince's game plan is to trigger a war between Israel and Hezbollah and deliver a heavy blow to the group this way!
Are we heading towards a direct war between Saudi Arabia and Iran?
So far Tehran and Riyadh have fought via proxies. Neither is really geared up for a direct war with the other but one successful rocket attack on the Saudi capital from Yemen could upset the apple cart.
Will Saudi Arabia go to war with Iran?
Media captionWill Saudi Arabia go to war with Iran?
One obvious area where they could come into direct conflict is in the waters of the Gulf, where they face each other across a maritime border.
But here too fighting could risk a much broader conflict. For the US and other Western powers, freedom of navigation in the Gulf is essential and any conflict that sought to block the waterway - vital for international shipping and oil transportation - could easily draw in US naval and air forces.
For a long time the US and its allies have seen Iran as a destabilising force in the Middle East. The Saudi leadership increasingly sees Iran as an existential threat and the crown prince seems willing to take whatever action he sees necessary, wherever he deems it necessary, to confront Tehran's rising influence.
The danger is that Saudi Arabia's new activism is fast making it a further source of volatility in the region.
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