Unemployment Rate Climbs to 4.5%! SAHM Rule Activated—Is a 2026 Recession Looming?

[ftan42]

As of December 16, 2025, the U.S. unemployment rate has risen to 4.5%, marking its highest point since 2021. This increase comes in the aftermath of a 43-day government shutdown, which caused a significant "data gap." The surge has officially triggered the Sahm Rule, raising concerns about a potential economic downturn in 2026.

 

[k1976]

Kick the can down the road, Kym?

 

[batman1]

JObless sinkees just lie flat and watch the world pass by.555

 

[True Believer]

Jobless sinkees just lie flat and watch the world pass by.555

The problem is how to stay motivated in your job search after sending out over 100 job applications w/o any response? Most things in life are out of our control. This is a sad fact of our existence.

 

[k1976]

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Shadow Banks Cross $250 Trillion Mark as Watchdog Warns on Data​

By Laura Noonan
December 16, 2025 at 8:00 AM GMT+1
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Global assets in the sprawling shadow banking sector have crossed the $250 trillion mark for the first time, new data from the Financial Stability Board shows, fueling fears of mounting systemic risks from less regulated corners of the financial sector.

The FSB’s annual global financial monitor shows non bank financial institutions — a group that spans hedge funds, insurers, investment funds and others — had a record $256.8 trillion of assets at the end of 2024, up 9.4% year-on-year. The group now accounts for 51% of total financial assets, similar to its pre-pandemic share.

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[face the facts]

4.5%??
my wife is lin ching hsia more believable

 

[ftan42]

Citi projects that the S&P 500 index will climb to 7,700 by the end of 2026, driven by robust corporate earnings and the growing influence of artificial intelligence (AI) investments. This prediction suggests a potential rise of approximately 12.7% from its recent closing level of 6,827 points.
Citi see something layman misses? Or bad unemployment rate causes FED in panic mode to cut more rate in 2026 driving the stocks?

 

[batman1]

The problem is how to stay motivated in your job search after sending out over 100 job applications w/o any response? Most things in life are out of our control. This is a sad fact of our existence.

Yes due to environmental (external) factors beyond your control.

 

[Robert Half]

I feel so happy that I still have a decent pay job today

I will strive to work harder for good years

 

[k1976]

China is quietly destroying the dollar — and that’ll cost you. Fight back with these money moves.​

When the U.S. dollar loses its monopoly on pricing the world’s critical resources, Americans’ purchasing power weakens​

By


Charlie Garcia
Follow

Last Updated: Dec. 16, 2025 at 1:19 p.m. ET
First Published: Dec. 16, 2025 at 7:50 a.m. ET

As more commodities get priced in yuan instead of dollars, demand for dollars softens.PHOTO: MARKETWATCH PHOTO ILLUSTRATION/ISTOCKPHOTO

Referenced Symbols​

• 
  DXY
  -0.10%
• 
  SBK
  +1.36%
• 
  USDCNY
  0.00%
• 
  SPX
  -0.24%
• TMUBMUSD10Y
  4.145%
• 
  GC00
  -0.00%
• 
  SI00
  +0.67%
• 
  BHP
  -0.96%
• 
  RIO
  +0.22%
• 
  VALE
  -0.39%

---

The dollar losing monopoly power is a slow leak, not a blowout. But slow leaks still leave you flat.

China controls the rare earths. China controls the cobalt. China, through its Belt and Road spending spree, now controls most of the mines in Africa that produce the stuff inside your phone, your car and your refrigerator.

And now China has figured out how to price and settle all of it without using a single U.S. dollar
— and nobody’s told you.

The financial press buried it under Federal Reserve noise and earnings reports. Everyone kept scrolling. But the dollar’s monopoly is cracking.

It matters to you. Not because you trade cobalt futures. Because when the U.S. dollar loses its monopoly on pricing the world’s critical resources, your purchasing power shrinks. That shows up at the grocery store, at the gas pump and in every aisle of every store. You just won’t know why.

Here’s what happened: A payment that used to take three to five days now takes seven seconds. Costs dropped 98%. A cobalt shipment from Congo to Shanghai now settles in Chinese yuan, without touching New York, without anyone in Washington getting a vote. The dollar just got cut out of the transaction entirely.

This isn’t about banking plumbing. It’s about power. Who sets commodity prices. Who controls sanctions. Who gets to define the term risk-free. For 50 years, that’s been the U.S. Not anymore.

The warehouse sale nobody announced​

---

If the 21st century runs on anything besides oil, it runs on African rocks.

Here’s what happened while America was busy with Fed meetings.

 

[k1976]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/c...-moves-b21c9484?mod=home_lead#comments_sector

The dollar index is breaking down, slipping 8% over the past year and falling. The ratio of tech stocks to gold minersjust reversed a decade-long trend.

This is what regime change looks like in real time. Capital is rotating out of one world and into another. The question is whether you rotate with it or get left holding the old playbook.

America’s free ride is ending​

Here’s where it gets personal.

When the dollar had monopoly power over global commodity pricing, America got a subsidy. The U.S. printed dollars. The world needed dollars to buy stuff. So the world bought U.S. debt, kept its interest rates low and let Washington run deficits that would have sunk anyone else. Economists call it “exorbitant privilege.” America’s enjoyed it since 1945.

That privilege is shrinking. Not disappearing but shrinking.

As more commodities get priced in yuan instead of dollars, demand for dollars softens. As central banks diversify into gold, they buy fewer Treasurys

TMUBMUSD10Y
4.145%
. As fewer foreigners buy U.S. debt, interest rates drift higher. As the dollar’s purchasing power erodes, everything you import costs more.

 

[k1976]

From the Dollar. What They’re Buying Instead.​

By Karishma Vanjani
Follow


Nov 26, 2025 8:00 am EST

Gold bars are presented at the German central bank in Frankfurt in 2017. (ARNE DEDERT / DPA / AFP / GETTY IMAGES)

International central banks are charting a move away from the dollar, but because there is no single alternative for the U.S. currency, they plan to buy up euros, China’s yuan, and more gold.

 

[True Believer]

I feel so happy that I still have a decent pay job today I will strive to work harder for good years

Those of us still holding white collar jobs in our 50s and 60s must thank God. Many of my former classmates who possess the required qualifications and experience lost their PME jobs in their 40s, and never found a way back. They have been performing jobs well below their abilities since.

 

[k1976]