Unemployment Rate Climbs to 4.5%! SAHM Rule Activated—Is a 2026 Recession Looming?

[ftan42]

As of December 16, 2025, the U.S. unemployment rate has risen to 4.5%, marking its highest point since 2021. This increase comes in the aftermath of a 43-day government shutdown, which caused a significant "data gap." The surge has officially triggered the Sahm Rule, raising concerns about a potential economic downturn in 2026.

 

[k1976]

Kick the can down the road, Kym?

 

[batman1]

JObless sinkees just lie flat and watch the world pass by.555

 

[True Believer]

Jobless sinkees just lie flat and watch the world pass by.555

The problem is how to stay motivated in your job search after sending out over 100 job applications w/o any response? Most things in life are out of our control. This is a sad fact of our existence.

 

[k1976]

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Shadow Banks Cross $250 Trillion Mark as Watchdog Warns on Data​

By Laura Noonan
December 16, 2025 at 8:00 AM GMT+1
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Global assets in the sprawling shadow banking sector have crossed the $250 trillion mark for the first time, new data from the Financial Stability Board shows, fueling fears of mounting systemic risks from less regulated corners of the financial sector.

The FSB’s annual global financial monitor shows non bank financial institutions — a group that spans hedge funds, insurers, investment funds and others — had a record $256.8 trillion of assets at the end of 2024, up 9.4% year-on-year. The group now accounts for 51% of total financial assets, similar to its pre-pandemic share.

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[face the facts]

4.5%??
my wife is lin ching hsia more believable

 

[ftan42]

Citi projects that the S&P 500 index will climb to 7,700 by the end of 2026, driven by robust corporate earnings and the growing influence of artificial intelligence (AI) investments. This prediction suggests a potential rise of approximately 12.7% from its recent closing level of 6,827 points.
Citi see something layman misses? Or bad unemployment rate causes FED in panic mode to cut more rate in 2026 driving the stocks?

 

[batman1]

The problem is how to stay motivated in your job search after sending out over 100 job applications w/o any response? Most things in life are out of our control. This is a sad fact of our existence.

Yes due to environmental (external) factors beyond your control.

 

[Robert Half]

I feel so happy that I still have a decent pay job today

I will strive to work harder for good years