TIKAM TIKAM: COVID19 - 8April

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hon gan la.why put so many animation at the bottom.sibei irritaing
 
Gold standard Singapore is finished with 142.what new story the PAP is going to spin.
 
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The virus has won the war in Singapore. Ministers must do the right thing by resigning.
 
My interpretation of the graph is that Singapore did too good a job in the early part of the spread.

The strategy did not take into account the fact that the majority of cases were asymptomatic as this crucial fact wasn't known at the time. It was assumed that 80% of cases were mild and 20% would require various degrees of treatment and that was it.

As more data has come to light we now know that while all this aggressive contact tracing was going on there were literally thousands out there who were completely symptom free but were spreading the bug.

What we are now seeing are cases that caught the virus from this asymptomatic pool and have ended up sick enough to seek treatment.

The end result has been a delay in the flattening of the curve. You can clearly see the kink in the middle of the log graph as the result of the aggressive earlier containment measures but the asymptomatic cases burst the bubble resulting in an increased rate of transmission around mid March.

Screenshot 2020-04-09 12.33.36.png


My estimates are that there are anywhere between 50,000 to 200,000 who either have the virus or it has come and gone without them knowing.

That is why a random sample which includes antibody testing is crucial in order to get a true picture of situation. Without this data everyone is trying to fight the virus blindfolded.
 
Is it a coincidence that immediately after circuit breaker the reported cases spike????

Obviously they already have these figures but kept to themselves and will make themselkves look very good after 2 weeks when the reported figures come down with these restrictions.
 
Is it a coincidence that immediately after circuit breaker the reported cases spike????

Obviously they already have these figures but kept to themselves and will make themselkves look very good after 2 weeks when the reported figures come down with these restrictions.

What I think is that the authorities became aware, just like I did, that there were a large number of asymptomatic cases so contact tracing alone was not going to work.

They are now trying to break the transmission between those with no symptoms and those yet to be infected.

My opinion is that it won't work because the numbers are too big.

However I also believe, based upon looking at numbers from other countries, that in a couple of weeks time the curve should be a lot flatter regardless of the circuit breaker rules.
 
Is it a coincidence that immediately after circuit breaker the reported cases spike????

Obviously they already have these figures but kept to themselves and will make themselkves look very good after 2 weeks when the reported figures come down with these restrictions.

maybe everyday now they put in additional 50 cases a day.after the CB..they everyday -50 case from the actual case. then the report card look nice.
 
My opinion is that it won't work because the numbers are too big.

We have a runway of 4 weeks, sans the COVIDIOTS running about, the curve will definitely flatten out.
 
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