This Coming GE - All Seats Contested?

[Ramseth]

If WP and NSP can come up with about 25+/- candidates each, SDA, SDP, RP, USD and SF can come up with an average of 10+/- candidates each, it looks like a full contest without any walkover. The figures I estimated aren't guaranteed but neither are they unrealistic, yes?

 

[GoldenDragon]

If WP and NSP can come up with about 25+/- candidates each, SDA, SDP, RP, USD and SF can come up with an average of 10+/- candidates each, it looks like a full contest without any walkover. The figures I estimated aren't guaranteed but neither are they unrealistic, yes?

You are working on the assumption of zero 3-corned fights?

 

[Ramseth]

Well yes, on that assumption and hopefully so. But you've got a good point, too many candidates raring and insistent would make some 3-corners unavoidable, which wouldn't be good for the overall opposition cause. In the so-called Malaysian political tsunami of 2008, the opposition contested about 90% of the seats. If there was too many candidates overflowing and insisting on contesting, nothing could overflow 100% and more 3-corners unfavorable to opposition would have resulted.

 

[GoldenDragon]

Well yes, on that assumption and hopefully so. But you've got a good point, too many candidates raring and insistent would make some 3-corners unavoidable, which wouldn't be good for the overall opposition cause. In the so-called Malaysian political tsunami of 2008, the opposition contested about 90% of the seats. If there was too many candidates overflowing and insisting on contesting, nothing could overflow 100% and more 3-corners unfavorable to opposition would have resulted.

Even if a miracle happens - all Opposition parties succeeded in avoiding 3-cornered fights, trust me, some strangers from nowhere will appear and offer themselves as Independents! Happened in the past and will happen again.

 

[Ramseth]

Even if a miracle happens - all Opposition parties succeeded in avoiding 3-cornered fights, trust me, some strangers from nowhere will appear and offer themselves as Independents! Happened in the past and will happen again.

Although it's beginning to crack now, the original PR alliance would be a sound model for the Singapore opposition to heed in order to achieve a breakthrough like they did. They may not take over government. It may crack down the line. But the breakthrough is essential to break the myth of BN hegemony. In Singapore's case, PAP of course. The three main parties in PR all have different policy ideas and constituent targets that could even be diagonally opposite each other internally. However, they took the breaking of BN hegemony as overriding priority and settle the rest later. That's how a nation breaks out from political hegemony to pluralism.

 

[lovesamleong]

Even if a miracle happens - all Opposition parties succeeded in avoiding 3-cornered fights, trust me, some strangers from nowhere will appear and offer themselves as Independents! Happened in the past and will happen again.

I believe these independents are likely to lose their deposits.

Not unless, the independent is someone like TKL.

On a side note, these independents are trying their luck on a job application for a $13,000 a month plus perks job.

Here is a simple test: would you vote for a nobody who comes in to contest as an independent? Likely no, not unless you know him and what he seeks to accomplish.

 

[GoldenDragon]

Although it's beginning to crack now, the original PR alliance would be a sound model for the Singapore opposition to heed in order to achieve a breakthrough like they did. They may not take over government. It may crack down the line. But the breakthrough is essential to break the myth of BN hegemony. In Singapore's case, PAP of course. The three main parties in PR all have different policy ideas and constituent targets that could even be diagonally opposite each other internally. However, they took the breaking of BN hegemony as overriding priority and settle the rest later. That's how a nation breaks out from political hegemony to pluralism.

Agree with your comments but he problem is most S'poreans look down on Malaysia, Malaysians and all things Malaysian. I sure hope our Opposition emulate our neighbours up north who surely have some things worth emulating.

 

[GoldenDragon]

I believe these independents are likely to lose their deposits.

Not unless, the independent is someone like TKL.

On a side note, these independents are trying their luck on a job application for a $13,000 a month plus perks job.

Here is a simple test: would you vote for a nobody who comes in to contest as an independent? Likely no, not unless you know him and what he seeks to accomplish.

Losing their deposits is not important. Splitting the opposition vote is the cardinal objective.

 

[Ramseth]

Agree with your comments but he problem is most S'poreans look down on Malaysia, Malaysians and all things Malaysian. I sure hope our Opposition emulate our neighbours up north who surely have some things worth emulating.

I had the opportunity and privilege of visiting DAP during that watershed election and a PKR Hari Raya party post election. Despite Malaysia being so huge a country relative to Singapore, PKR is about one-million-member strong, PAS about half-million and DAP about quarter-million (relative to BN (UMNO, MCA, MIC etc.) about 4-million strong), they put aside all differences and banged BN hard. That was how they achieved their tsunami. The Gerakan component of BN was wiped out by DAP completely, annihilation is the word. Including Penang in overall, five states were won out from eleven.

 

[lovesamleong]

Losing their deposits is not important. Splitting the opposition vote is the cardinal objective.

I think these independents will get no more than 100 votes, not unless he is someone like TKL.

These 100 votes should not really matter, not unless it is a tight race, where even 1 vote count (which in this case, the independent will NOT lose his deposit).

In a situation like:

PAP 22,000 votes
WP 15,000 votes
Independent 100 votes

The split of 100 votes does really nothing.

Keep in mind, the candidate will only lose his deposit if he does not have a certain percentage of votes.

If he does not have a certain percentage of votes, then he does not impact on the outcome of the contest. In other words, the independent who loses his deposit does not really split the votes to impact the outcome.

 

[Ramseth]

Keep in mind, the candidate will only lose his deposit if he does not have a certain percentage of votes.

If he does not have a certain percentage of votes, then he does not impact on the outcome of the contest. In other words, the independent who loses his deposit does not really split the votes to impact the outcome.

It's 12.5%.

 

[GoldenDragon]

It's 12.5%.

12.5% will be very significant if the other opposition chap manages above the 40% range. MIW would dearly love such 3-cornered battles.

 

[GoldenDragon]

I had the opportunity and privilege of visiting DAP during that watershed election and a PKR Hari Raya party post election. Despite Malaysia being so huge a country relative to Singapore, PKR is about one-million-member strong, PAS about half-million and DAP about quarter-million (relative to BN (UMNO, MCA, MIC etc.) about 4-million strong), they put aside all differences and banged BN hard. That was how they achieved their tsunami. The Gerakan component of BN was wiped out by DAP completely, annihilation is the word. Including Penang in overall, five states were won out from eleven.

They had an "Anwar". We don't. The closest "Anwar" we have is CST but the latter is physically weak and losing some credibility.

LTK and KJ? Not in the "Anwar" category. Anwar, being ex-DPM, was then perceived to be capable of forming the next govt. That, I think, gave the voting populace the courage to vote opposition. And they did.

Our scenario here is quite different. Voters are reluctant to support the opposition coz they can't see any of them capable of being anything more than just opposition MPs.

 

[Ramseth]

12.5% will be very significant if the other opposition chap manages above the 40% range. MIW would dearly love such 3-cornered battles.

Yes, it's hard for candidates with established parties to lose deposits in straight fights. Only DPP (Tan Lead Shake v. Tan Cheng Bock) comes to mind. In the only multi-cornered GRC fight seen in Singapore so far, NSP and SJP both lost deposits in Marine Parade in the 1992 BE.

 

[GoldenDragon]

Yes, it's hard for candidates with established parties to lose deposits in straight fights. Only DPP (Tan Lead Shake v. Tan Cheng Bock) comes to mind. In the only multi-cornered GRC fight seen in Singapore so far, NSP and SJP both lost deposits in Marine Parade in the 1992 BE.

Leading by shaking is a sure lose formula. If someone loses his deposit, that is an accomplishment for him/her. Not easy. A gila chap fought Jayakumar in bedok years ago and secured 30 over % without even campaigning.

 

[Ramseth]

Leading by shaking is a sure lose formula. If someone loses his deposit, that is an accomplishment for him/her. Not easy. A gila chap fought Jayakumar in bedok years ago and secured 30 over % without even campaigning.

Uncle Charlie Siow fought Jayakumar and scored over 45%. Jayakumar's face turned darker than Indian or African, simply black.

 

[GoldenDragon]

Uncle Charlie Siow fought Jayakumar and scored over 45%. Jayakumar's face turned darker than Indian or African, simply black.

If Charlie wasn't Siow but Charlie Heng or Charlie Win, Jaya would have been politically dead years ago. Family name important. Once Siow, always siow.

 

[scroobal]

There were a number of key driving factors that created the situation which members of the Malaysian Opposition rightly read and took opportunity of. They include mismangement, loss of faith in the Police and key government bodies, the East Coast royalty dissension and the the failure of MCA and MIC to deliver to their members and the internal corruption.

Singapore opposition parties have always cooperated well albeit with some minor exception. I remember Chiam stepping aside for JBJ. Also recalled the BEES strategy.

Frankly the comparison with Malaysia on all account is not reasonable.

Malaysia is much more a democracy than Singapore will ever be. It has always had opposition members in both Federal and State parliament.

I note that Uncle Yap also seems to think that one can apply the same Malaysia formula.

I had the opportunity and privilege of visiting DAP during that watershed election and a PKR Hari Raya party post election. Despite Malaysia being so huge a country relative to Singapore, PKR is about one-million-member strong, PAS about half-million and DAP about quarter-million (relative to BN (UMNO, MCA, MIC etc.) about 4-million strong), they put aside all differences and banged BN hard. That was how they achieved their tsunami. The Gerakan component of BN was wiped out by DAP completely, annihilation is the word. Including Penang in overall, five states were won out from eleven.

 

[scroobal]

It is good sign. It engages everyone and people will feel a sense of self worth when they vote.

If WP and NSP can come up with about 25+/- candidates each, SDA, SDP, RP, USD and SF can come up with an average of 10+/- candidates each, it looks like a full contest without any walkover. The figures I estimated aren't guaranteed but neither are they unrealistic, yes?

 

[sinren67]

In the last GE before the nomination day, it being known that WP did not say anything means a lot, during opps leaders meeting. But with the rise of NSP and RP, will Low n Sylvia needless to say anything, again? I hope all parties will respect the collection agreement, esp SDP.u