The PE in Retrospect

[LeMans2011]

aiyah, all wayang la. tonic already lost, but harry potter had to pull the last minute sword from the wizard's hat to rescue tonic for a celebratory gin and tonic. it's in the contingency plans. they're never gonna lose no matter what the outcome so long when harry is (still) in charge. all these retrospective analysis paralysis is pure garbage. tonic would have won no matter what even if it was only a 2 way contest between him and orang u tan, sun tan, or u tan, or whatever tan thrown at him. the whole fecking place is engineered and manipulated down to every detail including the margin of victory. if vote stuffing can happen in sf, the most liberal and democratic of u.s. cities, it can happen anywhere on this planet. democracy is a scam.

Not proven... but highly believable

 

[mesmerised]

TJS is not a gentleman. People know that from the way he conducted himself during the GE. Just cos he put on a tie and jacket doesn't make him Presidential material. Even in the final stages when he is out of the race, he tried to act clever and say " let's wait for final result ". It is behavior like this that cheeses of Singaporeans.

In politics, looks do matter. Behavior speaks louder than words . What you say matters just as much as who says it.

Anyone opposing the PAP cannot portray himself as anti- PAP.Just speak with sincerity, treat opponents and their track record with respect. TJS would have won hearts if only he wasn't too pushy about his economic prowess and financial acumen. To many voters, TJS is just a stock broker. Over the next few years, if he builds his credibility as a serious politicians with moderate leanings, he may just make it as a political icon.

 

[eatshitndie]

Not proven... but highly believable

gave up on democracy when brown was elected mayor of sf from a last minute rally of over 4000 votes. he was behind by over 4000 votes 99.999% into the vote count at midnight, and everyone thought he lost. next morning woke up, he won by over a few hundred votes. where did those fecking 4000 votes come from out of the blue at such a late hour? no investigations followed, no recount, no contest till this day. once other candidate conceded, it was all over. the city quickly trashed the ballots. lost faith in democracy after that. happened all over the u.s. and not just sf.

 

[scroobal]

Don't be too harsh on yourself. If TT had got 55% or more, we all would have accepted it at face value and gone back to bed. TKL will be the talk of the town and that's it.

As I pointed out before the polls, TCB did not try in selling himself to those who were not aware of him

I came to know of TCB in late 1970s. People in the west kept referring to a god like chap and a doctor. I took a trip to see which loser was operating a clinic in the middle of ulu land. I got a mighty shock to see a chap in mid 30s. Is this the chap that was revered by people in the farmlands, by HDB staff, Land Office Staff, SAFTI and a whole bunch of civil servants. Naturally socialism, communism and the underground came to mind. A rehash of Dr Poh Soo Kai.

Years later I met one of his partners when the clinic moved to Jurong West. I thought I met another saint. People of Jurong West, Ama, Keng, etc must have been blessed to have them. If Tan Cheng Bock dies, my guess is that you will see the biggest funeral in the country.

People like that never sell themselves. If he was not with the PAP, he would not have been elected as an MP. I wish I had done more to sell him in this forum. .

never in my life did I expect instead that it would be TT and TCB neck to neck, with TJS trailing far behind at 25%.

I am a political idiot and deserve to be fucked in the arsehole.

 

[scroobal]

Bro, you have no idea how delirious I would have been to see Tan Cheng Bock tell old man to fuck off from Istana while the latter was still alive. Truly a missed opportunity. I would paid good money to see the removal van carting away his beloved exercise bike.


For the sake of our children, fellow brothers and sisters, we shall recover.

[/QUOTE]

 

[cass888]

Unfortunately, you have the morons here who voted for TJS at the last minute. I assure you TJS will be severely punished by TCB supporters if he tries the next GE. Same for Nicole Seah, the pretentious bitch. TJS may find even his 25% lowered.

As for Goh Meng Seng, I hope he WILL run at the next election. He can join TKL among the deposit losers.

Don't be too harsh on yourself. If TT had got 55% or more, we all would have accepted it at face value and gone back to bed. TKL will be the talk of the town and that's it.

As I pointed out before the polls, TCB did not try in selling himself to those who were not aware of him

I came to know of TCB in late 1970s. People in the west kept referring to a god like chap and a doctor. I took a trip to see which loser was operating a clinic in the middle of ulu land. I got a mighty shock to see a chap in mid 30s. Is this the chap that was revered by people in the farmlands, by HDB staff, Land Office Staff, SAFTI and a whole bunch of civil servants. Naturally socialism, communism and the underground came to mind. A rehash of Dr Poh Soo Kai.

Years later I met one of his partners when the clinic moved to Jurong West. I thought I met another saint. People of Jurong West, Ama, Keng, etc must have been blessed to have them. If Tan Cheng Bock dies, my guess is that you will see the biggest funeral in the country.

People like that never sell themselves. If he was not with the PAP, he would not have been elected as an MP. I wish I had done more to sell him in this forum. .

 

[kingrant]

You stole the words from under my breath, bro. Excellent portrayal of how I feel too.

From hindsight 20/20, punditry analyses always sound so profound and sharp. If the margins weren't that close, TJS will not be a scapegoat for TT's win. As for his pol future, I differ with Scroobal with due respect. He is not dead. TCB's base is indeed bigger than I thot even after his lacklustre campaign and non-committal performance at CNA. I think people wanted to see a non-PAP victory, so between TCB and TJS, naturally went for JS. I found Scroobal too harsh on him, and really, whether TT or TCB won, it'll still be a PAP win, so why would anybody who want to bloody the PAP's nose vote for TCB?

I feel sorry for TKL. He was made out to be a kingmaker, now had to exit with a whimper, and much ignominy. Still, I would credit pushing the envelop of the EP to him, which TJS capitalised on as well. Even if we all know it will come to nothing, it started serious probing and stones have been thrown at the glasshouse. We can expect some more tinkering or the govt starts acquiescing to some of the people's demands. But, thanks to TKL and TJS, they helped to plant the seeds. In this respect, CB does not get my respect because he played safe.

It is moot now to speculate:

1. what if TKL didnt run? will TCB or TJS get his share?
2. what if TJS didnt run? will TCB win?
3. what if TCB withdrew? will TJS win?

I voted TJS because i felt he was the best candidate. If i had known that it was going to be very close between TCB and TT I would have tactically voted TCB.

I was prepared for a TT victory, say, along the lines of 35-28-27-10. In other words I was expected TCB and TJS neck to neck, with TKL losing his deposit but by a very narrow margin . So that's why I voted TJS.

never in my life did I expect instead that it would be TT and TCB neck to neck, with TJS trailing far behind at 25%.

 

[wwabbit]

You stole the words from under my breath, bro. Excellent portrayal of how I feel too.

From hindsight 20/20, punditry analyses always sound so profound and sharp. If the margins weren't that close, TJS will not be a scapegoat for TT's win. As for his pol future, I differ with Scroobal with due respect. He is not dead. TCB's base is indeed bigger than I thot even after his lacklustre campaign and non-committal performance at CNA. I think people wanted to see a non-PAP victory, so between TCB and TJS, naturally went for JS. I found Scroobal too harsh on him, and really, whether TT or TCB won, it'll still be a PAP win, so why would anybody who want to bloody the PAP's nose vote for TCB?

The problem is you are seeing things in black and white as a opposition hardliner. There are a lot of moderate voters out there that want a moderate candidate, and TCB is that moderate candidate. Yes, he may be ex-PAP, but his track record shows that he was not part of the PAP inner circle, and that is good enough not only for the moderate voters, but for moderate opposition parties as well, as SPP has endorsed TCB, as well as some WP members in their own capacities.

1. what if TKL didnt run? will TCB or TJS get his share?
2. what if TJS didnt run? will TCB win?
3. what if TCB withdrew? will TJS win?

1. I'd expect the moderate votes to actually be shared between TCB and TKL. So most of TKL's votes would have gone to TCB. TCB only need less than 10% of TKLs votes to beat TT.
2. TJS's votes would mostly be shared between TCB and TKL. TCB only need less than 2% of TJS's votes to beat TT anyway
3. Highly unlikely. TCB's vote will be shared between TT and TJS.

Remember: Opposition hardline voters generally have no problem picking a moderate candidate over the PAP candidate, but moderate voters will split their votes between PAP candidate and hardline opposition candidate. There's a reason why the more successful opposition parties have been moderate opposition (WP, SPP, pre-CSJ SDP)

 

[Perspective]

I voted TJS because i felt he was the best candidate. If i had known that it was going to be very close between TCB and TT I would have tactically voted TCB.

I was prepared for a TT victory, say, along the lines of 35-28-27-10. In other words I was expected TCB and TJS neck to neck, with TKL losing his deposit but by a very narrow margin . So that's why I voted TJS.

never in my life did I expect instead that it would be TT and TCB neck to neck, with TJS trailing far behind at 25%.

I am a political idiot and deserve to be fucked in the arsehole.

Yes I didn't expect the close margin. I would agree if TCB was surely trailing that a vote for TJS would mean something. I only knew TCB stood a chance when I went to work after voting and realise nearly all my colleagues voted TCB with the rest TT and only 1 TJS. And two taxi drivers also TJS on the same day. I then realise TCB stood a chance of winning. He was rather bland during the 9 days.

But it's something not to blame yourself. TJS got 25% and that would be a signal to wake the PAP. In 1997 and 2001, the hardcore opposition base used to be less than 20%. It has grown. And PAP would be cheating themselves to add TT and TCB votes and say that they have 70% base. In reality, many TCB voters are of the opposition voters.

 

[Perspective]

I think people wanted to see a non-PAP victory, so between TCB and TJS, naturally went for JS. I found Scroobal too harsh on him, and really, whether TT or TCB won, it'll still be a PAP win, so why would anybody who want to bloody the PAP's nose vote for TCB?

It depends on whether they expected TCB and TT to come close. Some people feel TCB and TT would be close but still insist on TJS. Which I find strange if they feel that TCB is a "lesser evil" but not strange if they feel both are the same or TCB is even worse.

 

[kingrant]

I think the crux is that people still find TJS's approach confrontational and therefore deemed him a hardliner. People here are still not used to seeing robust defences, sharp rebuttals, lampooning etc. In fact, TJS is mildly adversarial as far as contents go, but his demeanor is a lot friendly and personable. Really, Singaporeans should wake up to more shouting, more rambunctiousness, and cut and thrust of public debate. If we still fear rocking the boat, we are playing into the PAP's fearmongering tactics.

The problem is you are seeing things in black and white as a opposition hardliner. There are a lot of moderate voters out there that want a moderate candidate, and TCB is that moderate candidate.

 

[theDoors]

I think MIWs have demonstrated how they can win an election despite having only 35% of the votes. Simply by issuing 2 more pieces of certificate of eligibility.

 

[zhihau]

I think MIWs have demonstrated how they can win an election despite having only 35% of the votes.

bro, you forgot to add that the fifth candidature (for Andrew Kwan) will strip TT of his chances of winning :p:p:p

 

[Debonerman]

Tan Jee Say wants to do better next time get Woffles to redo his wife's eyes and lose those glasses. Disconserting is the opinion of many. Cost a hundred grand worth of votes at least.

 

[3_M]

I voted TJS because i felt he was the best candidate. If i had known that it was going to be very close between TCB and TT I would have tactically voted TCB.

I was prepared for a TT victory, say, along the lines of 35-28-27-10. In other words I was expected TCB and TJS neck to neck, with TKL losing his deposit but by a very narrow margin . So that's why I voted TJS.

never in my life did I expect instead that it would be TT and TCB neck to neck, with TJS trailing far behind at 25%.

I am a political idiot and deserve to be fucked in the arsehole.

I was adopting a wait and see attitude on whether to vote for TJS and TCB. If TJS can unify opposition base, my vote will go to him. If opposition base is split, then I will vote TCB. But when TJS made his speech during nomination day, I more or less decide it TCB. TJS wasn't speaking to the middle ground and I sense that opposition voters are divided between TJS and TCB. Simple mathematics tell me TJS don't have the number to challenge TT. Towards the end of the campaign, I revised my prediction 39+-39-17-3-2 (TT-TCB-TJS-TKL-spoil) with TT having that very thin advantage. Thus i persuade my friends and family to vote for TCB. I am glad that I made the right choice.

 

[cass888]

He can fuck off at the next election. He will be remembered for handing Tony the Presidency.

Tan Jee Say wants to do better next time get Woffles to redo his wife's eyes and lose those glasses. Disconserting is the opinion of many. Cost a hundred grand worth of votes at least.

 

[KuanTi01]

I voted TJS because i felt he was the best candidate. If i had known that it was going to be very close between TCB and TT I would have tactically voted TCB.

I was prepared for a TT victory, say, along the lines of 35-28-27-10. In other words I was expected TCB and TJS neck to neck, with TKL losing his deposit but by a very narrow margin . So that's why I voted TJS.

never in my life did I expect instead that it would be TT and TCB neck to neck, with TJS trailing far behind at 25%.

I am a political idiot and deserve to be fucked in the arsehole.

Hey, don't be so harsh with yourself! There are many other political idiots (myself included) and real life idiots but they are blessedly unaware & they still live happily ever after!

 

[Checker]

The official spin is already becoming a PAP win 70-30. Yes a split, but healing this will be top priority. Even if TCB won, it would be spun (and eventually believed) as the same PAP win 70-30 or even 90-10 (vs TKL if TJS changed sides). If TCB won, his top priority will still be reconciling the TT-PAP and his PAP-side, same as what TT/ PAP leadership is focusing on now. Opposition voters on his side will be like the 2nd wife as they are smaller in number and certainly less powerful. Unhappy, jealous, angry. No way TCB margin could have been big enough to throw out PM from Istana – not if the party needs to be reconciled as top priority.

But these are all would haves and should haves. If PAP plays the game right from now, they may well succeed in incorporating the TCB side. Same if TCB won. They may then win over the moderate opposition voters who voted TCB. In so doing, they will blur the lines between them and WP and weaken the WP base. I suspect they could have been even more effective in doing this had TCB won.

In a funny way, the lines between PAP and opposition are still fairly clear. But may not stay for long. For example, Yee Jen Yong’s ST piece may well sound similar to what somebody on TCB’s PAP-side might write. Question is whether opposition can now move effectively to appeal to more of these moderates than the PAP can, and still differentiate itself. TJS’s side has a clearer identity, but may be less appealing to moderates. Can that side polish up more and be more effective?

 

[theDoors]

The other thing is, now all the party elders have been "ridicule" publicly.

ESM with the "TPL effect" on his vote count.
Former DPM TT winning with a razor thin margin.

I think no party elder can come out and challenge PM in a post MM era.

Imagine if the President is elected with a strong mandate, and the popular sentiment is that the PM is incompetent. In a post MM era, it will spell trouble for the PM.

 

[eQuipment]

basically, from the results shown, its very clear that the country is split into 3 distinct segments: pro PAP (die hard), non PAP (fence sitters), anti PAP (die hard). for 4eyes to win by a nose hair, it is evident that the majority has shifted away from the pro PAP camp.

the palm tree (34%) although is somewhat percieved to be a digression from the PAP, he also made it clear that he will take a neutral stance from the extreme left or extreme right. this concept was a big draw for the undecided voters. we can also see that the anti PAP voters have also made it clear by giving the heart a 25% at the polls... needless to say, the hi5 sounded like a belated GE, which only garnered 5% of the lost.

in short, it can also be seen that 2 out of 3 voters r somewhat more conservative than liberal. they r generally receptive to the iron fist methods while only 1 out of 3 have had enough & dying for a major change.

the PE results have made the picture relatively clear, and so, i think will be good reference when all the parties strategize for the next GE.