Tan Cheng Bock on the Punggol East BE result

[enterprise2]

Yeah can't see him making any contributions or adding any value to the Presidency!

 

[aurvandil]

The PAP do not have the political capital to make large changes to the electoral system to favour thenselves. If they did, they risk a backlash from a politically awakened electorate. My expectation is therefore for things to proceed more or less as is.

In 2011, they issued out 4 PECs. As noted previously, it is politically not viable to issue a PEC in 2011 and then refuse to do so in 2017.

The outcomes of the Presidential Elections and the recent Punggol East BE means that the 3 non PAP candidates are unlikely to repeat what happened in 2011.

Of the 3 candidates, TKL is no longer viable. He has also publicly stated that he will no longer take part in any future elections.

TCB is the obvious front runner among the remaining two candidates. If his health holds up and he runs in a straight fight, he is likely to win with a vote share of 60% to 70% regardless of whoever the PAP puts up. I expect TJS to give way if TCB is running.

If TCB's health does not hold up and he announces that he will not run, I expect TJS to step forward. If TJS runs under this scenario, I expect him to cruise home with a comfortable 55% to 65% victory.

The President of course does not have any real power. The loss of the Presidency is however a key milestone in the run up to 2021.

 

[kongkek]

Dr TCB has quite a knack of saying absolutely nothing insightful.

exactly, tell me something i don't know

 

[yinyang]

..my sentiments exactly ! methinks he is flying a flag to watch the wind ....

Dr TCB has quite a knack of saying absolutely nothing insightful.

What's new? In person, he maybe an amicable bloke and quite popular in his ayer rajah heydays.

 

[ray_of_hope]

The PAP do not have the political capital to make large changes to the electoral system to favour thenselves. If they did, they risk a backlash from a politically awakened electorate. My expectation is therefore for things to proceed more or less as is.
.

You are incredibly naive. They will keep making major changes to electoral boundaries. In fact there is nothing to say that Aljunied's boundary will not change significantly. The argument will be made that if PAP-held constituencies can change shape then WP constituencies can do so too. As for the next presidential election, there will likely be only ONE candidate, Dr Tony Tan, as I expect the Presidential Election Act to be amended to ensure tighter eligibility criteria. That was already flagged by one PAP MP shortly after the August 2011 election when he asked on what basis TJS got a COE. I expect that contested presidential elections will continue to occur at, maybe, once every 18 years. I am perfectly fine with that if it means keeping out the likes of the TJSs of this world.

 

[Fook Seng]

As for the next presidential election, there will likely be only ONE candidate, Dr Tony Tan, as I expect the Presidential Election Act to be amended to ensure tighter eligibility criteria.

Understand that TT is not keen on a second term.

 

[aurvandil]

When voters have politically awakened to the extent of practicing tactical voting, making unfair changes will come at a very heavy political price.

You are incredibly naive. They will keep making major changes to electoral boundaries. In fact there is nothing to say that Aljunied's boundary will not change significantly. The argument will be made that if PAP-held constituencies can change shape then WP constituencies can do so too. As for the next presidential election, there will likely be only ONE candidate, Dr Tony Tan, as I expect the Presidential Election Act to be amended to ensure tighter eligibility criteria. That was already flagged by one PAP MP shortly after the August 2011 election when he asked on what basis TJS got a COE. I expect that contested presidential elections will continue to occur at, maybe, once every 18 years. I am perfectly fine with that if it means keeping out the likes of the TJSs of this world.

 

[ray_of_hope]

When voters have politically awakened to the extent of practicing tactical voting, making unfair changes will come at a very heavy political price.

That is why I say you are incredibly naive: A single swallow does not a summer make.
You can engage in wishful thinking. That will not change the fact that Singaporeans remain remarkably cowardly.

 

[aurvandil]

Actually it has been more like 4 swallows flying in formation - GE 20011, PE 2011, Hougang BE 2012 and Punggol East BE 2013.

That is why I say you are incredibly naive: A single swallow does not a summer make.
You can engage in wishful thinking. That will not change the fact that Singaporeans remain remarkably cowardly.

 

[ray_of_hope]

Actually it has been more like 4 swallows flying in formation - GE 20011, PE 2011, Hougang BE 2012 and Punggol East BE 2013.

Of course you can read results in whatever way you like. In the PE, the status quo candidate won. In Hougang the WP simply retained its seat on a reduced margin. And in GE2011 WP won 1 out of the 26 PAP wards up for grabs.

 

[TracyTan866]

Understand that TT is not keen on a second term.

the pap brand is a hated, despised and diseased brand. it wld be silly for TT to seek another term..anyway, it's likely that he will be voted out should he contest under pap's approval.

besides TT, I think many pap ministers will want to retire after this term

 

[aurvandil]

LKY created the office of the elected President with himself in mind as the final heroic goalkeeper in the event of an Opposition resurgence. He never imagined that when the time finally came to play the card, he would be 97 years old.

the pap brand is a hated, despised and diseased brand. it wld be silly for TT to seek another term..anyway, it's likely that he will be voted out should he contest under pap's approval.

besides TT, I think many pap ministers will want to retire after this term

 

[metalmickey]

LKY created the office of the elected President with himself in mind as the final heroic goalkeeper in the event of an Opposition resurgence. He never imagined that when the time finally came to play the card, he would be 97 years old.

This is not true. Being a president does not have as much power as a member of the cabinet. He stayed in the cabinet as long as he could before he got senile. We can now assume that he's senile, and he doesn't want

I don't really know why he created the office of the elected president. But the chief duty of the president could give us a clue - it becomes really difficult to spend money on the foreign reserves. He wanted to make it extremely difficult for anybody other than himself to get access to the foreign reserves. So what are the foreign reserves really about?

 

[metalmickey]

Actually it has been more like 4 swallows flying in formation - GE 20011, PE 2011, Hougang BE 2012 and Punggol East BE 2013.

These "four horsemen of the PAP apocalypse" is probably a sign of things to come. I don't know to what extent the PE election factors in the population paper, given that its contents were already leaked out before the election. I do not dare to make any predictions on what 2016 will be like. LTK can say all he wants about not posing a threat to the PAP, but the rate at which the WP makes progress is not dictated by the WP, it is dictated by the people.

 

[aurvandil]

LKY can only remain in cabinet if the PAP is still in power. The elected President is his contingency plan in the event that the PAP is voted out of office. He reasoned that no one could beat him in an election. He would therefore come swopping in and use the elected Presidency to save the PAP. He never reckoned on growing old and dying just before when this contingency plan might be needed.

This is not true. Being a president does not have as much power as a member of the cabinet. He stayed in the cabinet as long as he could before he got senile. We can now assume that he's senile, and he doesn't want

I don't really know why he created the office of the elected president. But the chief duty of the president could give us a clue - it becomes really difficult to spend money on the foreign reserves. He wanted to make it extremely difficult for anybody other than himself to get access to the foreign reserves. So what are the foreign reserves really about?

 

[ray_of_hope]

LTK can say all he wants about not posing a threat to the PAP, but the rate at which the WP makes progress is not dictated by the WP, it is dictated by the people.

Your remark sounds completely like a throw-away-line. If the people want what you describe then they simply need to step up to the plate. What have they done? Are millions of dollars flowing into the WP as donations for the party and its building fund (allowing it to build an even larger HQ than initially envisaged)? If that happens then you point is valid, and I will be with you on this 100%. If it is not then it is simply more of the same -- people demanding things but not contributing anything. How do I treat such people? Of course with contempt, and nothing less.

 

[cheekenpie]

Tan Cheng Bock's take on the Punggol East BE result. Dr Tan remains our greatest hope to win the next Presidential elections in 2017. From the Punggol East BE result, there is a good chance that the PAP will lose their 2/3 majority in 2016. This makes the Presidential Elections in 2017 a critical milestone in the run up to 2021. I hope Dr Tan continues to stay active and is a candidate in the 2017 Presidential elections.

----
Punggol East by-election. I got it wrong.

https://www.facebook.com/TanChengBock

On nomination day when l saw there were 4 candidates my immediate reaction was a repeat of the President election. It was going to be a close fight. However the result proved me wrong.

WP’s Lee Li Lian won a handsome victory of 54.5% and PAP Dr Koh managed 43.7%. She had come from behind to gain a swing of 13.5% from her previous 41% defeat in 2011. This is remarkable. The other 2 candidates did badly and both lost their deposits. What does this show?

The voters of Punggol East have sent a clear message that they want the WP’s Lee Li Lian and will not be distracted by the presence of 2 other opposition candidates. There was no splitting of opposition votes.

While the by-election effect would favour the opposition, the announcement of measures to improve transport, health care, housing and baby bonus did not excite the electorate. Perhaps they concluded that these measures would be implemented whatever the outcome.

PAP did put up a candidate with strong academic credentials but the people better empathise with Lee Li Lian, the typical heartlander who is less successful academically than Dr Koh and can identify with her as someone who had to struggle hard to make it

Ground sentiment is important. There is a growing wish for more opposition in parliament. In spite of the PAP and Reform parties’ attacks that the Workers Party MPs have not performed, the people perhaps decided that it is still their better bet and threw their support behind WP.

Just like you, TCb has amazing ability to state the obvious. 20/20 Hindsight!

 

[metalmickey]

Your remark sounds completely like a throw-away-line. If the people want what you describe then they simply need to step up to the plate. What have they done? Are millions of dollars flowing into the WP as donations for the party and its building fund (allowing it to build an even larger HQ than initially envisaged)? If that happens then you point is valid, and I will be with you on this 100%. If it is not then it is simply more of the same -- people demanding things but not contributing anything. How do I treat such people? Of course with contempt, and nothing less.

I'm describing things as they are, not as they should be. And you are right, 90% of opposition politics, 90% of the people here, in fact - is all about people demanding things but not contributing anything. If you are understanding what I am saying correctly, you should be treating them with contempt.

I think that the PAP should be given some time to save itself. But when you think about it, their conduct post 2011 elections has been totally disgusting. Stringing out Ng Boon Gay to dry just because they want to show that they are tough on corruption. Stringing out Laura Ong to dry to show that the PAP is as accountable as WP is. (My gut feeling is that Yam Ah Mee quit in disgust over this issue.) A "national conversation" whose purpose is to "educate" those dumbass peasants into realising that the government always does know what's best. It might not be a bad thing for the WP to take over, no matter how immature they are.

1 million dollars is only for a large HQ. That's all 1 million dollars is going to get you these days. It could pay a small portion of a minister's annual salary. If your point is that the 1 million dollars is proof that Singaporeans have real sincerity when they want to contribute to opposition politics, you have got to be joking.

 

[metalmickey]

LKY can only remain in cabinet if the PAP is still in power. The elected President is his contingency plan in the event that the PAP is voted out of office. He reasoned that no one could beat him in an election. He would therefore come swopping in and use the elected Presidency to save the PAP. He never reckoned on growing old and dying just before when this contingency plan might be needed.

When you use words like "contingency plan" you have to understand what it means. Contingency plans are plan Bs, you make them without the expectation that they will be carried out. I'll take your point that he wants to make the presidency a separate centre of power just in case the opposition captures parliament? Suddenly checks and balances are important when the threat that the PAP would lose power is there. That would be extremely hilarious, because I remember that just before the presidential elections they were keen to stress over and over again that the elected president doesn't actually have political powers.

 

[aurvandil]

It is probably one of those things he didn't quite think through. Thanks to the PAP, the Opposition got a free lesson on how to disarm a PAP President.

When you use words like "contingency plan" you have to understand what it means. Contingency plans are plan Bs, you make them without the expectation that they will be carried out. I'll take your point that he wants to make the presidency a separate centre of power just in case the opposition captures parliament? Suddenly checks and balances are important when the threat that the PAP would lose power is there. That would be extremely hilarious, because I remember that just before the presidential elections they were keen to stress over and over again that the elected president doesn't actually have political powers.