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比總統信任下挫更可驚的訊號：藍綠政黨認同大逆轉
美麗島電子報
112 人追蹤
政事觀察站2018年11月1日 上午9:00
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圖片來源：中央社
美麗島電子報10月國政民調，蔡總統聲望繼續創新低，信任度下落到26.7％，這很令人擔心，但是民意走向和過去4年來最大，也更嚴重的變化其實是民眾對政黨的態度突然出現兩大逆轉現象：
一、在對政黨的好感度上，兩年來，民眾對兩大黨的態度一直維持著反感度遠遠高於好感度的現象。例如，2017年5月，民眾對民進黨好感度34％，反感度47.5％；對國民黨好感度28.2％，反感度47.9％。到了今年9月，對民進黨好感度26.4％，反感度52.0％，國民黨好感度30.7％，反感度43.0％。
這一個月，國民黨好感度暴增到41.7％，反感度39.2％。不只好感度領先民進黨的27.4％達14.3％之多，巨幅超前，而且成為3年來唯一好感度和反感度呈現黃金交叉的政黨。
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圖一、兩黨好感度的變動
二、在政黨認同上，從2014年底到今年3月，3年半之間，民眾對民進黨的認同一直維持大幅度領先國民黨的現象，到了9月，國民黨認同度雖然一直維持在20％上下的谷底狀，但是民進黨認同卻大幅下降了5％，於是兩黨不分上下地在18％～21％之間糾結，不料到了10月，一下子國民黨跳升了7％，到了25％，把停留在20％的民進黨拋在後面。
畢竟好感，反感是比較容易短期間波動的情緒反應，而認同則是，更為深沉穩定涉及理念價值層次的支持，例如，如今高雄民情波動到民眾對民進黨的反感已遠超過國民黨，但是依TVBS調查，民進黨在高雄的認同仍然以21％比17％領先國民黨，由此可見認同度的逆轉如果是所謂的黃金交叉，預示的是一個新的長期穩定的走勢的話，嚴重程度將比好感度的逆轉更加嚴重。
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圖二、民眾政黨認同的趨勢
從2003年到今年9月，預示長期趨勢的黃金交叉只有出現過兩次。在2000年～2005年地方公職選舉之前，民眾對民進黨的認同一直遙遙領先對國民黨的認同；到了2005年5月，雙方出現死亡交叉，從此國民黨遙遙領先民進黨，到了2013年2月，民眾對雙方的認同同時下降，直到2014年10月，兩黨間進入長達1年8個月不相上下的糾纏時期，這期間也正是白色力量呼嘯街頭，而把兩黨拋在旁邊的時候；2014年10月，兩黨再度達到分道揚鑣的交叉口，民進黨脫穎而出，進入2年8個月的大幅領先期；到了2017年6月雙方認同度進入第2次的糾纏期，兩黨都糾結在20％上下的認同上面，這糾結維持了1年4個月，如今國民黨終於明顯地勝出，終於出現了第3次的黃金交叉？如果是，民進黨後續發展將不堪設想。
總統選舉民眾選黨更重於選人
過去，雖然大家喜歡強調選舉時，選人不選黨；但是從2000年以來，在總統選舉時，民眾選黨的傾向其實遠過於選人。
現在就把2004年、08年、12年、16年四次總統選舉過程中，兩黨4對候選人在投票前約一年間個人聲望的波動和兩大政黨民眾認同的升沉變化，對照起來畫在如下面的圖三裡。
一、2004年總統選舉。
從2002年11月到2003年5月，國民黨候選人連戰的民間聲望一直高過陳水扁一大截；相對的，由於民眾對國民黨黑金形象記憶猶新，因此在2004年選舉總統的一整年之中，民眾的政黨認同，民進黨一直對國民黨維持5％以上的領先。最後，2004年3月投票結果原來領先的連戰落選。
二、2008年總統選舉。
2007年2月13日，馬總統因特別費案被起訴，被迫辭去黨主席職務後，聲望一路下滑；相反的，謝長廷在參選台北市長時，明白地和陳水扁畫清界線，被稱讚很有風骨，聲望急速上升，在07年3月贏過了馬英九而且維持到選後。
但是在民眾對政黨方面的態度是，2005年陳水扁政府從中央到地方都傳出弊案，民進黨人，尤其是陳水扁，民望崩盤，連帶的民進黨地方選舉大敗，2008年總統選舉的一整年之中民眾的政黨傾向，民進黨一直維持在落後國民黨15％以上。
結果大贏的卻是民望較落後的馬英九。
三、2012年總統選舉。
從2010年到2011年12月蔡英文民眾滿意度一直遠遠高過民望剩下30％多的總統馬英九。
在2012年總統選舉的一整年中，民眾對陳水扁8年失政仍然不能忘懷，而美國也因此介入台灣總統選舉修理蔡英文，政黨認同民進黨一直維持5％的落後幅度。
最後，2012年1月投票馬英九當選連任。
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圖三、四次選舉總統候選人民望和兩大政黨民眾認同波動對照圖
四、2016年總統選舉。
2012年蔡英文落選的舊傷未復，因此，從2010年～2014年12月到投票前幾個月，朱立倫的民望一直維持領先。
但是國民黨因為受到太陽花運動和換柱事件的衝擊形象大傷，2016總統選舉的一整年中，民進黨的民眾認同一直維持10％的領先幅度。
最後蔡英文終於超前而當選。
這四次選舉都是民眾的政黨傾向優勢的黨贏得選舉，而不是投票前民望長期領先的候選人，由此可見，要當選總統，候選人固然重要，但是民眾對政黨認同的浮沉往往扮演更大的重要性。
看到10月民意政黨認同突然逆轉的強烈訊息，再回顧過去10幾年的歷史軌跡，民進黨員豈能不震驚！
環視全局，中央執政一直沒辦法取得多數民眾肯定，選舉又北遇柯P效應，南逢韓國瑜衝擊，如果再讓藍綠政黨認同可能一路翻轉下去成定局，這次選舉真是危機重重；然而更危險的是，依過去軌跡，一旦民眾政黨認同走過了黃金交叉後，兩黨之間一上一下的態勢維持下去的時間長則超過10年，短也不會在三兩年內結束，所以民進黨如不能力挽狂瀾，阻止趨勢進一步成型的話，未來遇到的是左有民眾認同領先在前的對手政黨，右有另成格局的柯文哲，在左右夾撃
之下，肯定是一連串艱難無比的選舉。
【作者 林濁水／前民進黨立法委員】
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相關新聞影音
More shocking than the president’s trust: blue and green parties agree with the big reversal
Beautiful Island News
112 people tracking
Political Affairs Observatory, November 1, 2018, 9:00 am
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Image source: Central News Agency
The beautiful island e-newsletter October national political polls, President Chua’s reputation continues to be low and the trust fell to 26.7%, which is very worrying, but the trend of public opinion and the biggest and more serious changes in the past four years are actually the people’s There are two major reversals in attitudes:
First, in the degree of affection for political parties, in the past two years, the attitude of the people towards the two major parties has always maintained a phenomenon of resentment far higher than goodwill. For example, in May 2017, the public was 34% sensitive to the DPP, 47.5% resentful; 28.2% good to the KMT, and 47.9% resentful. In September of this year, the DPP was 26.4%, the resentment was 52.0%, the Kuomintang was 30.7%, and the resentment was 43.0%.
This month, the Kuomintang’s goodwill surged to 41.7% and the resentment rate was 39.2%. Not only does it feel that the leading DPP's 27.4% is as much as 14.3%, which is a huge lead, and it has become the only party in the past three years with a golden cross between the good feelings and the resentment.
View photo
Figure 1. Changes in the sentiment of the two parties
Second, in the identification of political parties, from the end of 2014 to March this year, between the three and a half years, the people’s recognition of the DPP has maintained a large lead over the Kuomintang. In September, the KMT’s recognition has remained at 20%. Up and down the bottom of the valley, but the DPP approval has dropped by 5%, so the two parties are entangled between 18% and 21%, but in October, the Kuomintang jumped 7% to 25 %, leaving the DPP who stayed at 20% behind.
After all, the feelings of resentment are relatively easy to fluctuate in a short period of time, and the recognition is that deeper stability involves the support of the level of the concept value. For example, the Kaohsiung sentiment fluctuates to the public’s resentment against the DPP far more than the KMT, but According to the TVBS survey, the DPP’s approval in Kaohsiung still leads the Kuomintang by 21% to 17%. This shows that if the reversal of recognition is a so-called golden cross, which indicates a new long-term stable trend, the severity will be More serious than the reversal of good feelings.
View photo
Figure 2: Trends in the recognition of popular political parties
From 2003 to September this year, the golden cross, which indicates long-term trends, has only appeared twice. Before the local public office elections from 2000 to 2005, the people's recognition of the DPP had always been far ahead of the KMT's identity; in May 2005, the two sides had a death cross, and since then the Kuomintang has been far ahead of the DPP, and in February 2013. The public's approval of both sides also declined. Until October 2014, the two parties entered a period of entanglement that lasted for one year and eight months. During this period, it was the white power that roared the streets and left the two parties aside. At the time of October 2014, the two parties once again reached a crossroads. The DPP stood out and entered a two-year and eight-month period. In June 2017, the two sides entered the second entanglement period. The party is entangled in the recognition of 20% of the above, this entanglement has been maintained for 1 year and 4 months, and now the Kuomintang finally clearly won, and finally the third golden cross? If so, the follow-up development of the DPP will be unimaginable.
The presidential election of the people to choose the party is more important than the selection of people
In the past, although everyone liked to emphasize the election, the election did not choose the party; but since 2000, in the presidential election, the tendency of the people to choose the party is actually far more than the selection.
Now, in the four presidential elections of 2004, 2008, 12, and 16 years, the two parties’ four candidates competed in the fluctuation of personal prestige about one year before the vote and the rising and changing of the recognition of the two major political parties. Painted in Figure 3 below.
1. The 2004 presidential election.
From November 2002 to May 2003, the popularity of the Kuomintang candidate Lien Chan has been higher than that of Chen Shui-bian. In contrast, since the people remembered the image of the Kuomintang black gold, the president’s election in 2004 was throughout the year. In the middle, the people's political parties agree that the DPP has always maintained a lead of more than 5% for the Kuomintang. Finally, the March 2004 vote turned out to be the leading Lien Chan defeat.
Second, the 2008 presidential election.
On February 13, 2007, after being sued for special expenses, President Ma was forced to resign from the party chairmanship, and his reputation declined. On the contrary, when Xie Changting was elected to the mayor of Taipei, he clearly and Chen Shui-bian painted the boundary line and was praised. Very windy, the reputation rose rapidly, won Ma Ying-jeou in March 2007 and remained in the election.
However, in the public's attitude toward political parties, the Chen Shui-bian government sent fraud cases from the central government to the local government in 2005. The DPP, especially Chen Shui-bian, the people's hopes collapsed, and the DPP local elections were defeated. The 2008 presidential election During the entire year, the people’s political parties tend to maintain the DPP’s position of more than 15% behind the Kuomintang.
The result of the big win is Ma Ying-jeou, who is backward in popularity.
Third, the 2012 presidential election.
From 2010 to December 2011, Tsai Ing-wen's satisfaction has been far higher than the 30% more president Ma Ying-jeou.
In the whole year of the 2012 presidential election, the people still can't forget Chen Shui-bian's eight years of political failure, and the United States has therefore intervened in the Taiwan presidential election to repair Tsai Ing-wen. The party agrees that the DPP has maintained a 5% backwardness.
Finally, in January 2012, Ma Ying-jeou was elected for re-election.
View photo
Figure 3, 4 elections, presidential candidate, and the political consensus of the two major political parties
Fourth, the 2016 presidential election.
In 2012, Tsai Ing-wen’s old injury was not recovered. Therefore, from 2010 to December 2014, a few months before the vote, Zhu Lilun’s popularity has been maintained.
However, the Kuomintang was greatly injured by the impact of the Sun Flower Movement and the column-changing incident. During the entire year of the 2016 presidential election, the DPP’s public identity has maintained a leading edge of 10%.
Finally, Tsai Ing-wen finally advanced and was elected.
These four elections are all candidates for the party's tendency to win elections, rather than the long-term leader of the people before the vote. It can be seen that to be elected president, candidates are important, but the people often play the role of party approval. Greater importance.
Seeing the strong message of the sudden reversal of the opinion of the public opinion party in October, and reviewing the historical track of the past 10 years, the DPP members can not be shocked!
Looking around the whole situation, the central government has never been able to win the majority of the people's affirmation. The election has met the Ke P effect in the north and the South Korean Yu impact in the south. If the blue-green party agrees that it may turn all the way down, it will be a crisis; but this is more dangerous. According to the past trajectory, once the people's political parties have agreed to go through the golden cross, the situation between the two parties will last for more than 10 years, and the short will not end within three or two years. If the party does not have the ability to turn the tide and prevent the trend from forming further, the future encounter is that the left-handed people agree with the leading opponent party, and Ke Wenzhe, who has a different pattern on the right, is in the left and right.
Underneath, it must be a series of difficult elections.
[Author Lin Duoshui / former Democratic Progressive Party member]
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比總統信任下挫更可驚的訊號：藍綠政黨認同大逆轉
美麗島電子報
112 人追蹤
政事觀察站2018年11月1日 上午9:00
檢視相片
圖片來源：中央社
美麗島電子報10月國政民調，蔡總統聲望繼續創新低，信任度下落到26.7％，這很令人擔心，但是民意走向和過去4年來最大，也更嚴重的變化其實是民眾對政黨的態度突然出現兩大逆轉現象：
一、在對政黨的好感度上，兩年來，民眾對兩大黨的態度一直維持著反感度遠遠高於好感度的現象。例如，2017年5月，民眾對民進黨好感度34％，反感度47.5％；對國民黨好感度28.2％，反感度47.9％。到了今年9月，對民進黨好感度26.4％，反感度52.0％，國民黨好感度30.7％，反感度43.0％。
這一個月，國民黨好感度暴增到41.7％，反感度39.2％。不只好感度領先民進黨的27.4％達14.3％之多，巨幅超前，而且成為3年來唯一好感度和反感度呈現黃金交叉的政黨。
檢視相片
圖一、兩黨好感度的變動
二、在政黨認同上，從2014年底到今年3月，3年半之間，民眾對民進黨的認同一直維持大幅度領先國民黨的現象，到了9月，國民黨認同度雖然一直維持在20％上下的谷底狀，但是民進黨認同卻大幅下降了5％，於是兩黨不分上下地在18％～21％之間糾結，不料到了10月，一下子國民黨跳升了7％，到了25％，把停留在20％的民進黨拋在後面。
畢竟好感，反感是比較容易短期間波動的情緒反應，而認同則是，更為深沉穩定涉及理念價值層次的支持，例如，如今高雄民情波動到民眾對民進黨的反感已遠超過國民黨，但是依TVBS調查，民進黨在高雄的認同仍然以21％比17％領先國民黨，由此可見認同度的逆轉如果是所謂的黃金交叉，預示的是一個新的長期穩定的走勢的話，嚴重程度將比好感度的逆轉更加嚴重。
檢視相片
圖二、民眾政黨認同的趨勢
從2003年到今年9月，預示長期趨勢的黃金交叉只有出現過兩次。在2000年～2005年地方公職選舉之前，民眾對民進黨的認同一直遙遙領先對國民黨的認同；到了2005年5月，雙方出現死亡交叉，從此國民黨遙遙領先民進黨，到了2013年2月，民眾對雙方的認同同時下降，直到2014年10月，兩黨間進入長達1年8個月不相上下的糾纏時期，這期間也正是白色力量呼嘯街頭，而把兩黨拋在旁邊的時候；2014年10月，兩黨再度達到分道揚鑣的交叉口，民進黨脫穎而出，進入2年8個月的大幅領先期；到了2017年6月雙方認同度進入第2次的糾纏期，兩黨都糾結在20％上下的認同上面，這糾結維持了1年4個月，如今國民黨終於明顯地勝出，終於出現了第3次的黃金交叉？如果是，民進黨後續發展將不堪設想。
總統選舉民眾選黨更重於選人
過去，雖然大家喜歡強調選舉時，選人不選黨；但是從2000年以來，在總統選舉時，民眾選黨的傾向其實遠過於選人。
現在就把2004年、08年、12年、16年四次總統選舉過程中，兩黨4對候選人在投票前約一年間個人聲望的波動和兩大政黨民眾認同的升沉變化，對照起來畫在如下面的圖三裡。
一、2004年總統選舉。
從2002年11月到2003年5月，國民黨候選人連戰的民間聲望一直高過陳水扁一大截；相對的，由於民眾對國民黨黑金形象記憶猶新，因此在2004年選舉總統的一整年之中，民眾的政黨認同，民進黨一直對國民黨維持5％以上的領先。最後，2004年3月投票結果原來領先的連戰落選。
二、2008年總統選舉。
2007年2月13日，馬總統因特別費案被起訴，被迫辭去黨主席職務後，聲望一路下滑；相反的，謝長廷在參選台北市長時，明白地和陳水扁畫清界線，被稱讚很有風骨，聲望急速上升，在07年3月贏過了馬英九而且維持到選後。
但是在民眾對政黨方面的態度是，2005年陳水扁政府從中央到地方都傳出弊案，民進黨人，尤其是陳水扁，民望崩盤，連帶的民進黨地方選舉大敗，2008年總統選舉的一整年之中民眾的政黨傾向，民進黨一直維持在落後國民黨15％以上。
結果大贏的卻是民望較落後的馬英九。
三、2012年總統選舉。
從2010年到2011年12月蔡英文民眾滿意度一直遠遠高過民望剩下30％多的總統馬英九。
在2012年總統選舉的一整年中，民眾對陳水扁8年失政仍然不能忘懷，而美國也因此介入台灣總統選舉修理蔡英文，政黨認同民進黨一直維持5％的落後幅度。
最後，2012年1月投票馬英九當選連任。
檢視相片
圖三、四次選舉總統候選人民望和兩大政黨民眾認同波動對照圖
四、2016年總統選舉。
2012年蔡英文落選的舊傷未復，因此，從2010年～2014年12月到投票前幾個月，朱立倫的民望一直維持領先。
但是國民黨因為受到太陽花運動和換柱事件的衝擊形象大傷，2016總統選舉的一整年中，民進黨的民眾認同一直維持10％的領先幅度。
最後蔡英文終於超前而當選。
這四次選舉都是民眾的政黨傾向優勢的黨贏得選舉，而不是投票前民望長期領先的候選人，由此可見，要當選總統，候選人固然重要，但是民眾對政黨認同的浮沉往往扮演更大的重要性。
看到10月民意政黨認同突然逆轉的強烈訊息，再回顧過去10幾年的歷史軌跡，民進黨員豈能不震驚！
環視全局，中央執政一直沒辦法取得多數民眾肯定，選舉又北遇柯P效應，南逢韓國瑜衝擊，如果再讓藍綠政黨認同可能一路翻轉下去成定局，這次選舉真是危機重重；然而更危險的是，依過去軌跡，一旦民眾政黨認同走過了黃金交叉後，兩黨之間一上一下的態勢維持下去的時間長則超過10年，短也不會在三兩年內結束，所以民進黨如不能力挽狂瀾，阻止趨勢進一步成型的話，未來遇到的是左有民眾認同領先在前的對手政黨，右有另成格局的柯文哲，在左右夾撃
之下，肯定是一連串艱難無比的選舉。
【作者 林濁水／前民進黨立法委員】
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More shocking than the president’s trust: blue and green parties agree with the big reversal
Beautiful Island News
112 people tracking
Political Affairs Observatory, November 1, 2018, 9:00 am
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Image source: Central News Agency
The beautiful island e-newsletter October national political polls, President Chua’s reputation continues to be low and the trust fell to 26.7%, which is very worrying, but the trend of public opinion and the biggest and more serious changes in the past four years are actually the people’s There are two major reversals in attitudes:
First, in the degree of affection for political parties, in the past two years, the attitude of the people towards the two major parties has always maintained a phenomenon of resentment far higher than goodwill. For example, in May 2017, the public was 34% sensitive to the DPP, 47.5% resentful; 28.2% good to the KMT, and 47.9% resentful. In September of this year, the DPP was 26.4%, the resentment was 52.0%, the Kuomintang was 30.7%, and the resentment was 43.0%.
This month, the Kuomintang’s goodwill surged to 41.7% and the resentment rate was 39.2%. Not only does it feel that the leading DPP's 27.4% is as much as 14.3%, which is a huge lead, and it has become the only party in the past three years with a golden cross between the good feelings and the resentment.
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Figure 1. Changes in the sentiment of the two parties
Second, in the identification of political parties, from the end of 2014 to March this year, between the three and a half years, the people’s recognition of the DPP has maintained a large lead over the Kuomintang. In September, the KMT’s recognition has remained at 20%. Up and down the bottom of the valley, but the DPP approval has dropped by 5%, so the two parties are entangled between 18% and 21%, but in October, the Kuomintang jumped 7% to 25 %, leaving the DPP who stayed at 20% behind.
After all, the feelings of resentment are relatively easy to fluctuate in a short period of time, and the recognition is that deeper stability involves the support of the level of the concept value. For example, the Kaohsiung sentiment fluctuates to the public’s resentment against the DPP far more than the KMT, but According to the TVBS survey, the DPP’s approval in Kaohsiung still leads the Kuomintang by 21% to 17%. This shows that if the reversal of recognition is a so-called golden cross, which indicates a new long-term stable trend, the severity will be More serious than the reversal of good feelings.
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Figure 2: Trends in the recognition of popular political parties
From 2003 to September this year, the golden cross, which indicates long-term trends, has only appeared twice. Before the local public office elections from 2000 to 2005, the people's recognition of the DPP had always been far ahead of the KMT's identity; in May 2005, the two sides had a death cross, and since then the Kuomintang has been far ahead of the DPP, and in February 2013. The public's approval of both sides also declined. Until October 2014, the two parties entered a period of entanglement that lasted for one year and eight months. During this period, it was the white power that roared the streets and left the two parties aside. At the time of October 2014, the two parties once again reached a crossroads. The DPP stood out and entered a two-year and eight-month period. In June 2017, the two sides entered the second entanglement period. The party is entangled in the recognition of 20% of the above, this entanglement has been maintained for 1 year and 4 months, and now the Kuomintang finally clearly won, and finally the third golden cross? If so, the follow-up development of the DPP will be unimaginable.
The presidential election of the people to choose the party is more important than the selection of people
In the past, although everyone liked to emphasize the election, the election did not choose the party; but since 2000, in the presidential election, the tendency of the people to choose the party is actually far more than the selection.
Now, in the four presidential elections of 2004, 2008, 12, and 16 years, the two parties’ four candidates competed in the fluctuation of personal prestige about one year before the vote and the rising and changing of the recognition of the two major political parties. Painted in Figure 3 below.
1. The 2004 presidential election.
From November 2002 to May 2003, the popularity of the Kuomintang candidate Lien Chan has been higher than that of Chen Shui-bian. In contrast, since the people remembered the image of the Kuomintang black gold, the president’s election in 2004 was throughout the year. In the middle, the people's political parties agree that the DPP has always maintained a lead of more than 5% for the Kuomintang. Finally, the March 2004 vote turned out to be the leading Lien Chan defeat.
Second, the 2008 presidential election.
On February 13, 2007, after being sued for special expenses, President Ma was forced to resign from the party chairmanship, and his reputation declined. On the contrary, when Xie Changting was elected to the mayor of Taipei, he clearly and Chen Shui-bian painted the boundary line and was praised. Very windy, the reputation rose rapidly, won Ma Ying-jeou in March 2007 and remained in the election.
However, in the public's attitude toward political parties, the Chen Shui-bian government sent fraud cases from the central government to the local government in 2005. The DPP, especially Chen Shui-bian, the people's hopes collapsed, and the DPP local elections were defeated. The 2008 presidential election During the entire year, the people’s political parties tend to maintain the DPP’s position of more than 15% behind the Kuomintang.
The result of the big win is Ma Ying-jeou, who is backward in popularity.
Third, the 2012 presidential election.
From 2010 to December 2011, Tsai Ing-wen's satisfaction has been far higher than the 30% more president Ma Ying-jeou.
In the whole year of the 2012 presidential election, the people still can't forget Chen Shui-bian's eight years of political failure, and the United States has therefore intervened in the Taiwan presidential election to repair Tsai Ing-wen. The party agrees that the DPP has maintained a 5% backwardness.
Finally, in January 2012, Ma Ying-jeou was elected for re-election.
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Figure 3, 4 elections, presidential candidate, and the political consensus of the two major political parties
Fourth, the 2016 presidential election.
In 2012, Tsai Ing-wen’s old injury was not recovered. Therefore, from 2010 to December 2014, a few months before the vote, Zhu Lilun’s popularity has been maintained.
However, the Kuomintang was greatly injured by the impact of the Sun Flower Movement and the column-changing incident. During the entire year of the 2016 presidential election, the DPP’s public identity has maintained a leading edge of 10%.
Finally, Tsai Ing-wen finally advanced and was elected.
These four elections are all candidates for the party's tendency to win elections, rather than the long-term leader of the people before the vote. It can be seen that to be elected president, candidates are important, but the people often play the role of party approval. Greater importance.
Seeing the strong message of the sudden reversal of the opinion of the public opinion party in October, and reviewing the historical track of the past 10 years, the DPP members can not be shocked!
Looking around the whole situation, the central government has never been able to win the majority of the people's affirmation. The election has met the Ke P effect in the north and the South Korean Yu impact in the south. If the blue-green party agrees that it may turn all the way down, it will be a crisis; but this is more dangerous. According to the past trajectory, once the people's political parties have agreed to go through the golden cross, the situation between the two parties will last for more than 10 years, and the short will not end within three or two years. If the party does not have the ability to turn the tide and prevent the trend from forming further, the future encounter is that the left-handed people agree with the leading opponent party, and Ke Wenzhe, who has a different pattern on the right, is in the left and right.
Underneath, it must be a series of difficult elections.
[Author Lin Duoshui / former Democratic Progressive Party member]
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