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Swing-votes in the next General Election

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Is there a public housing crisis in Singapore?
4 Sept 2018
https://akikonomu.blogspot.com/2018/08/is-there-public-housing-crisis-in.html

Should the state allow public housing in estate councils to age to full-term? If no, this poses an urban redevelopment problem of persuading homeowners to give up their leases. If yes, this creates a housing supply and demand shock as entire cohorts of homeowners are suddenly evicted and seek new public housing, which hopefully is available and hopefully are affordable.

HDBs are an asset but it is more like a car as it enters of second half of it's remaining lease.

HDB continues to slide while private properties deviates

https://www.straitstimes.com/busine...5-rise-in-q3-after-cooling-measures-ura-flash
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/hdb-resale-prices-q3-2018-bto-flats-november-10774706
 

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Japan's LDP tanked in the 1990s after a dissidents join the opposition.
Taiwan's KMT fell from power when James Song split from the party.
Malaysia's BN collapsed in 2018 against the opposition led by Mahathir.
These parties used to hold on to power for decades.

Now, will the same happen in Singapore in 2019?
https://www.straitstimes.com/politi...th-lee-hsien-yang-at-west-coast-hawker-centre

Leehsienyang-tan-cheng-bock-660x330.jpg
 

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Life after the Lees? Singapore prepares for the future
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/11/life-lees-singapore-prepares-future-181130025115883.html
Finance minister becomes likely successor to Lee Hsien Loong as city-state positions for more challenging future.

by Tom Benner

e651168472fb4b468ee33bb2bb354758_18.jpg

Tourists gather on a bridge along the Singapore river for a view of the skyline and iconic Marina Bay area


Singapore - Founding father Lee Kuan Yew oversaw Singapore's growth from a small country with no natural resources to a thriving metropolis - in a style almost invariably described as authoritarian. Lee dominated public life on the Southeast Asian island from 1959, when the former British colony won self-governance, to well beyond his retirement as prime minister in 1990, serving in advisory ministerial roles for more than a decade.

His eldest son, Lee Hsien Loong, the third and current prime minister since 2004 (his predecessor Goh Chok Tong was seen by some as merely a seat warmer) has led the country through less combative, more prosperous times.

Approaching 67, he wants to step down by the time he turns 70.

The founding family appears to be at the end of its run, with no younger Lees apparently willing to continue the family’s political tradition. In a country accustomed to stability and predictability, the dawn of a post-Lee era has fuelled uncertainty. The People's Action Party, which has never lost a national election and was founded by the elder Lee, last week unveiled its new slate of leaders - the "4G" or fourth generation in Singapore-speak - who the party would like to take control of the government in the coming years.

'Life and death'
Singaporeans are greeting the new line-up with the kind of coming-of-age anxiety that comes with leaving the familiar.

"The general mood after the announcement of the PAP's succession is one of relief," said Victor Mills, chief executive of the Singapore International Chamber of Commerce (SICC). "It took a while. Singaporeans, just like the markets, do not like uncertainty."
27d94d96b5414247ab542b4e7ba49007_18.jpg

Singapore's Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat pictured earlier this year [Wong Maye-E/AP]

The country's next general election must be held by April 2021.

But Lee has hinted it may be called as early as next year, which would mean it coincides with celebrations to mark 200 years since Stamford Raffles arrived on the island.

In 2015, the PAP benefitted from Singapore's 50th anniversary celebrations - and the emotional farewells following Lee Kuan Yew's death - to win a decisive victory over fractured opposition parties. The man in line to become the younger Lee's successor is Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat, 57, who is now the ruling party's first assistant secretary general.

A former central bank chief and education minister, Heng once served as principal secretary to the elder Lee, but two years ago during a cabinet meeting he collapsed from a stroke, triggering questions about his ability to run the country.

Heng told government-regulated media the "life and death" experience only underlined his commitment to public service. Another story reminded readers that Heng's first question when he came round in his hospital bed - written on paper because he was still unable to speak - was whether there was a cabinet meeting.
The party's new second in command is Trade Minister Chan Chun Sing, 49, seen as Heng's chief competitor for the top job.

Out of view
0349ca30a9a74326b8466c15ddf78a0e_18.jpg

Singaporeans pay their respects to the country's first prime minister Lee Kuan Yew who died in 2015 at age 91 [Wong Maye-E/AP]

The jockeying among PAP leaders took place behind the scenes, out of public view, and following the announcement the newspapers filled with lavish pledges of unity from former rivals.

The largely male leadership was photographed smiling and shaking hands in the party's regulation uniform of white trousers and white shirts - the shirts sporting a lightning symbol in red circled by a blue ring to symbolise action and racial unity (Singapore's population is largely ethnic Chinese, but has large groups of Malay and Indian people).

The dawn of a post-Lee era comes comes at a pivotal time for Singapore. The small country - with a population of 5.9 million - plays an outsized role in foreign affairs as a regional ally both to the US and China, while a trade war between the two economic superpowers threatens to spill over into broader conflicts.

Singapore marks 50th birthday with grand celebrations

But the city state is also facing more domestic challenges including income inequality, an ageing workforce, immigration, and the rising cost of living. Adding to the mix, a future administration will have to deal with the expiration of the first generation of leaseholds on Singapore’s signature policy of owner-occupied public housing. May’s general election in neighbouring Malaysia, which saw Malaysian voters reject the six decade long rule of the Barisan Nasional coalition - was a stark reminder that regime change can, and does, happen.

Inequality
In relatively wealthy Singapore, inequality has become a key issue in a country that has long been averse to welfare.

PN Balji, a political commentator and former newspaper editor, wonders whether Heng can challenge the status quo: "How will he tackle this divisive issue. Will he be bold enough to strike out with [ideas] that go against the grain of anti-welfarism measures?"

Singapore’s government leaders are the world's highest-paid with the prime minister taking home S$2.2m ($1.6m) a year including bonuses. Ministers earn as much as S$1.1m ($800,000).

Kenneth Paul Tan, associate professor at the National University of Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, said the country's traditional focus on personal thrift and meritocracy is not enough to ensure continued prosperity in the face of rising inequality.

"Singapore can afford to share its wealth more generously so that all its people can live in dignity and flourish as citizens," he said. "With creativity and ingenuity, policies can be designed to manage incentives, prevent abuse of the system and keep Singapore competitive. None of this will be easy, of course, but Singapore has a history of solving intractable problems. Why not this one?"

13ca59af48a2487097d7aa99d1fd7662_18.jpg

A public housing block in Singapore. Most citizens live in owner-occupied flats built by the government's Housing Development Board [Thomas White/Reuters]

Younger Singaporeans in particular worry about the growing gap between the kind of fantastic wealth portrayed in the movie Crazy Rich Asians and low-income Singaporeans who struggle to pay medical bills and other basic living costs.

They want the country's next generation of leaders to do more to bridge that gap.

"Economic inequality is an important issue to be addressed," said Jiang Zhi Feng, in his first year at Yale-NUS College and at 21 will be eligible to vote in his first national election.

"At the end of the day, a nation is as strong as its most vulnerable."


Paternalism
Perhaps unlike in the past, other Singaporeans want to be convinced of the next leader's merit, rather than being presented with a presumptive nominee.
Dharmendra Yadav, a lawyer and social commentator, preferred a different candidate: Tharman Shanmugaratnam, a former deputy prime minister who enjoys a popular following but at 61 (only four years older than Heng) was considered too old for the premiership.

"Singaporeans have got the next line of leaders that the ruling party thinks we best deserve," he said. "The key challenge for these leaders will indeed be to win over Singaporeans like me who desire a different prime minister."

Regardless, Heng, the PAP's candidate, has a likely path to victory.

Steven Oliver, a political scientist at Yale-NUS College, notes in spite of somewhat more competitive elections in 2011 and 2015, opposition parties in Singapore face significant challenges. "[They] still face substantial disadvantages regardless of when the next election is held [especially because] they have no experience or record in office," he said.

"It is challenging for many Singaporean voters to cast their ballots for opposition candidates given the inherent uncertainty about whether these candidates can effectively serve their interests."
 

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Soaring House Prices Leave Singapore Millennials Stuck With the Folks
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ls-stuck-with-the-folks-as-home-prices-spiral

Being a millennial in Singapore and looking for a home to call your own is tough.

Almost 70 percent of Singaporeans aged between 21 and 37 say they don’t have a structured savings plan to fund a home purchase, and therefore live with their parents, according to a report by PropertyGuru. Residential prices in the city-state increased almost 7 percent in the first half of 2018 before cooling measures implemented in early July muted the rise.

Other reasons for not leaving the nest include not being married, which in Singapore means you can’t apply for a government-subsidized apartment.

Other highlights were:
  • 88 percent of Singaporeans are dissatisfied over the state of the property market, with respondents citing high home prices as the key concern
  • Housing supply is likely to increase next year because S$10.5 billion ($7.7 billion) of en-bloc deals concluded in the first half of 2018 and many of those redeveloped sites will likely launch in 2019
  • Prices of private condos in centrally located areas like Serangoon and Potong Pasir are expected to remain elevated due to underlying demand
 

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Is there a public housing crisis in Singapore?
https://akikonomu.blogspot.com/2018/08/is-there-public-housing-crisis-in.html

Should the state allow public housing in estate councils to age to full-term? If no, this poses an urban redevelopment problem of persuading homeowners to give up their leases. If yes, this creates a housing supply and demand shock as entire cohorts of homeowners are suddenly evicted and seek new public housing, which hopefully is available and hopefully are affordable.



HDBs are an asset but it is more like a car as it enters of second half of it's remaining lease.

Deviation between HDB and private prices sustained


Singapore's private home prices rose nearly 8% in 2018
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/private-home-prices-property-2018-ura-11078890

HDB resale prices fell 0.9% in 2018
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/hdb-resale-prices-fell-2018-bto-new-flats-11078892
 

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Dr Bilveer Singh, an Associate Professor at the National University (NUS) of Singapore’s Department of Political Science, has published a new book – entitled “Is the People’s Action Party here to stay” – examining whether the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) will endure as the dominant political party in Singapore.

Asserting that the opposition seems to be growing stronger and that “the public is watching as the country faces crisis after crisis at home,” such as the recent spate of cyberattacks, the Hyflux saga, the MRT disruptions and constant price hikes in basic amenities, Dr Singh asks the pertinent question of whether the PAP can stumble and fall.

Pointing out that similar one-party dominant political parties have collapsed elsewhere in the world, like Malaysia’s Barisan Nasional which held the reins of the country until a stunning defeat by the opposition coalition in the watershed 2018 elections, Dr Singh asked whether such a fate would meet the PAP across the causeway.

http://theindependent.sg/nus-associate-professor-asks-whether-the-pap-is-here-to-stay-in-new-book/
 
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