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Steam of Revolution goes strong, Yemeni dictator can not hold

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http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704517404576222252316970720.html

Talks Snag Over Yemeni Leader's Exit
President Wants Immunity for Family, Which Leads Antiterrorism Efforts


By HAKIM ALMASMARIin San'a, Yemen And MARGARET COKER in Abu Dhabi

SAN'A, Yemen—Yemeni negotiators hashing out a transfer of power that would have longtime President Ali Abdullah Saleh resign within days are stuck on crucial details concerning the fate of his relatives who lead the country's elite counterterrorism units, according to people familiar with the discussions.

Those details are a key concern of the embattled leader as well as of international allies like the U.S. 0and Saudi Arabia.

The negotiators, which include aides to Gen. Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar—Yemen's leading general who defected to the side of antigovernment protests—two leading opposition political leaders and Mr. Saleh are working out these details amid increasing tension across the Arab nation.

The streets of the capital San'a bristled with tanks and armed soldiers on almost every major intersection Friday, as thousands of demonstrators gathered there and in other major cities to push their demands for regime change.

Ahead of the noon prayers on Friday, protest organizers in San'a announced they wouldn't follow through on plans to march from the central Tahrir Square, where they have based their demonstration, toward the presidential palace. They said they wanted to minimize the chance for violence and allow political negotiations more time to advance.

People familiar with the negotiations said that Mr. Saleh was trying to insist on guarantees of immunity from prosecution for him and his family and that a transitional authority contain figures he considers allies, like the current vice president or the prime minister.
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One person close to the talks said that the leader didn't want to end up like former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, who is now facing a corruption probe after being forced from office in February. "Saleh has learned from Egypt that he would face trials if he leaves with no guarantees," said this person.

Mr. Saleh mustered a show of strength Friday, appearing at a well-attended rally in the capital. There, in remarks broadcast live on state television, he lashed out at his opposition, saying they didn't deserve to take power.

"We in leadership, we don't want power but we need to hand it over to trustful hands, not to sick, hateful, corrupt, collaborator hands," Mr. Saleh said.

The first breakthrough in talks came early Thursday when Mr. Saleh and Gen. Ahmar, who have alternated as allies and rivals throughout Yemen's modern history, agreed to end their careers simultaneously.

That has allowed discussions to advance and focus on security arrangements, including counterterrorism relationships with the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, Yemen's larger neighbor to the north, according to these people.

The U.S. and regional governments have worried that the weekslong political crisis in the fractious Arab nation would disrupt counterterrorism operations and allow the al Qaeda affiliate in Yemen to expand.

WSJ's Margaret Coker reports Yemen President Ali Abdullah Saleh is close to reaching an agreement under which he and the nation's top general would step down. The News Hub also covers violence flaring in Syria and bombings in Jerusalem.

Anti-government protesters in Yemen gather to demand President Ali Abdullah Saleh steps down immediately, not by the end of the year as he has offered. Video courtesy of Reuters.

Yemen has been a top national-security concern for Washington for years, but jumped higher still after 2009 when al Qaeda said it had organized a new affiliate based in Yemen and then launched two failed bomb attacks against airliners. Yemen also is home to radical cleric Anwar al-Awlaqi, who U.S. officials believe had a role in inspiring the Fort Hood, Texas, shootings.

Most of America's top counterterrorism partners in Yemen are Mr. Saleh's relatives, including his eldest son, Ahmed, and two nephews who head elite units funded and trained by the U.S. People familiar with the negotiations say that the president, Gen. Ahmar and the opposition leaders are now debating whether changes in the command structure would be prudent given the real and present danger that al Qaeda poses.

The future role of Mr. Saleh's sons and nephews is a key interest to both the president and the opposition. In the way of Middle Eastern rulers, the president had been grooming his son Ahmed to succeed him, say diplomats.

Yemeni opposition parties, however, have been fighting for the past two years for political reforms that would loosen Mr. Saleh's grip on power and the political status quo that has given him and his relatives control over most military and economic pillars in the country.

The protest movement gained support and urgency in the wake of a crackdown on March 18 in which plainclothes security forces opened fire on unarmed demonstrators who had assembled in Change Square, killing at least 50 people. Gen. Ahmar then announced his support for the protesters, as did dozens of other military officers, tribal leaders and religious figures.

The general tried to tamp the impatience and tension among protesters who have camped in Tahrir Square for weeks. Ahead of the traditional noon prayers, the general urged the demonstrations to remain strong and declared that victory for democracy was near.

"We are very close to victory and need to be patient during the final steps," said Gen. Ahmar. "I vow to never go against you and will stand with you until your demands are met."

Negotiators are also still working out the contours and the composition of a transitional authority. Mr. Saleh and his political opponents agree that there won't be an Egyptian-style military council that takes over in his stead. But it is yet unclear who the two sides could agree on taking part in a civilian authority.

Names under consideration include the current vice president, Abdo Rabu Hadi, and the head of Yemen's Socialist Party, Yaseen Noman, according to people familiar with the situation. Both men have established ties with U.S. officials and have played a role in the negotiations this week. It is unclear who is being considered to represent Yemen's strong tribal groups, or reflect the large and conservative religious constituencies.

Mr. Saleh has ruled Yemen throughout its modern history, so nationally respected leaders are hard to find. The support for mainstream opposition party leaders is unclear across the rugged and largely conservative country. Meanwhile, tribal leaders who have great social standing would face problems exerting authority over rival tribes.

Analysts say that the prospects for U.S. national security interests would be dicey even with an orderly transition of power. With Mr. Saleh's departure, America's 10-year counterterrorism relationship would also be subject to change.

"If we see leadership changes, we'd be starting from scratch to build relationships. And personal relationships are the key to counter terrorism," said Katherine Zimmerman, a Yemen specialist at the American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project. Yet, if a leader with domestic legitimacy emerged who was willing to work with the U.S., "that could be a game changer" because Mr. Saleh's cooperation has been mixed at best over the years, she said.

The U.S. has been tight-lipped on developments in Yemen. "We do not build our policy in any country around a single person, and we obviously will look forward to having a solid relationship to the leader of Yemen," White House spokesman Jay Carney told reporters.

Write to Margaret Coker at [email protected]
 
Latest say is president agreed to step down already.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/26/opinion/26sat2.html

Editorial
Change in Yemen
Published: March 25, 2011

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There may have been a time when Yemen’s president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, could have maneuvered a more graceful departure from the office he has held for three decades. But he has lost his legitimacy and should go as quickly as possible. Continued instability is not good for Yemen or for the United States-led fight against Al Qaeda.

For nearly two months, Mr. Saleh weathered increasing pressure from youth-led demonstrations demanding his resignation and a more accountable and democratic system. The tide turned on March 18. At least 50 protesters were killed, apparently by snipers loyal to the regime.

Since then, a surprising number of high-level government officials, including military commanders and ambassadors, as well as tribal leaders, have joined the opposition. The most significant: Maj. Gen. Ali Mohsin al-Ahmar, who this week directed his troops to protect the antigovernment demonstrators.

Protesters, so far, have rejected Mr. Saleh’s attempted concessions. They have little reason to trust him: He has long promised reforms and never delivered. Even now, he is sending mixed messages. On Thursday, he vowed to defend himself by “all possible means.” On Friday, he said he was ready to yield power but only if he could hand it over to what he termed “safe hands.”

Still, there is talk of a deal. In Yemen’s complex tribal culture, President Saleh, a survivor, may survive again. The Obama administration, using quiet diplomacy, at first tried to persuade him to respond peacefully and credibly to popular demands. Now with Saudi Arabia, Yemen’s patron, it should press him even harder to accept a quick and peaceful transfer of power to a caretaker government that broadly reflects Yemeni society. It would lay the ground for elections.

Yemen is a shaky state. It is running out of water and oil, and 43 percent of its people are impoverished. It is battling separatists in the south, insurgents in the north and — with Washington’s frequent participation — one of Al Qaeda’s strongest affiliates. A brutal civil war or a prolonged power vacuum will only make a bad situation even worse.
 
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12866535

25 March 2011 Last updated at 22:13 GMT
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Jeremy Bowen: Syria and Yemen catch revolutionary mood
By Jeremy Bowen Middle East editor
Clashes at Omayyad Mosque in Damascus after Friday prayers, 25 March A demonstration in Damascus was broken up
Continue reading the main story
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Mid-East protests: Country by country

The revolutionary mood calling for reform and freedom that has gripped the Arab world since the beginning of the year is spreading.

In the course of Friday there were significant events in two countries at either end of the region, Syria and Yemen.

In Syria, protests that have been going on for a week or more in the city of Deraa have spread. They seem to have been inspired by the reports that as many as 40 people have been killed by the authorities in Deraa in the last week, and perhaps more on Friday.

The BBC cannot confirm the reports - Syrian security forces turned back a BBC team that tried to reach Deraa. An eyewitness told the BBC that there was a demonstration in Damascus, the capital, and that it was broken up.

Syria has been a tightly-run police state for generations. The protests have produced more offers of reform from the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, including the repeal of an emergency law that's been in place since 1963.

President Assad, who succeeded his father in the job 11 years ago, is personally popular. But that might change if his security forces kill more protesters and if he doesn't deliver on reform.

Significantly a demonstration was reported today in the city of Hama, where in 1982 the first President Assad put down a revolt by the Muslim Brotherhood.

Estimates of the dead back then started at about 10,000 and went much higher.
On the way out

In Yemen, President Ali Abdullah Saleh promised to hand over power after weeks of demonstrations but only to what he called "safe hands".

He has been negotiating with a senior general who joined the opposition this week, after the regime killed about 50 protesters at a rally in Sanaa, the capital. But so far, no deal has been made.

During the day, tens of thousands of protesters, some supporting the president and some the opposition, were said to have been on the streets of Sanaa.

President Saleh has been considered a vital ally in the fight against al-Qaeda but after more than 30 years at the top, he is on the way out. And Western countries once again are struggling to keep up with the mood of change that is sweeping through the Middle East.
 
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