Why would people vote for SDA? Chiam's second try at establishing a mega party and getting multi seats failed after a decade plus. RP? What a silly name to begin with.
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Size of swing for WP to win Punggol East
- Thread starter aurvandil
- Start date
JBJ is dead
TFBH
How do you see things playing out in Punggol East? Going by your analysis, RP and SDA are in the position as TKL vs TJS. Just. As TKL was unable to position himself in a meaningful way, it is hard to see how SDA and RP can position themselves in a way that disinguishes them significantly from WP. Unless they unviel something shockingly bold, they are going to suffer the same fate as TKL.
I agree that there will always be a small minority that chose because of demographics like gender, race and other reasons. From GE 2011, their number in Punggol East is about 1,3000. I am projecting their numbers to fall this time to under 1,000 which will be shared between RP and SDA. Unless I see good turnouts at their respective rallies, I am going to stick with this number.
Incidentally the law against publishing election survey results is because of the impact such results can have on actual results. It has been empirically proven that survey results which show candidates gaining strength or momentum can often lead to more people wanting to vote for the person. The best recent example of this is from the recent elections in the US where Romey surged after a whole series of opinion polls showed that he had beaten Obama in their first debate. The most common explaination for this is that people like to vote for winners because they do no like to admit they voted for a loser.
How do you see things playing out in Punggol East? Going by your analysis, RP and SDA are in the position as TKL vs TJS. Just. As TKL was unable to position himself in a meaningful way, it is hard to see how SDA and RP can position themselves in a way that disinguishes them significantly from WP. Unless they unviel something shockingly bold, they are going to suffer the same fate as TKL.
I agree that there will always be a small minority that chose because of demographics like gender, race and other reasons. From GE 2011, their number in Punggol East is about 1,3000. I am projecting their numbers to fall this time to under 1,000 which will be shared between RP and SDA. Unless I see good turnouts at their respective rallies, I am going to stick with this number.
Incidentally the law against publishing election survey results is because of the impact such results can have on actual results. It has been empirically proven that survey results which show candidates gaining strength or momentum can often lead to more people wanting to vote for the person. The best recent example of this is from the recent elections in the US where Romey surged after a whole series of opinion polls showed that he had beaten Obama in their first debate. The most common explaination for this is that people like to vote for winners because they do no like to admit they voted for a loser.
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u nid 2 twurn ze heads of oni ~ 2300 daft voters! ...
aurvandil,
I think the SCM got it right, it will be a close race between LLL and the good Doctor. Almost like a two way straight fight except that some minor dilution will come from KJ/DL, enough to put in doubt her chance of winning.
At this stage we should be urging PE voters to vote tactically if they want to become an oppo ward.
DL has zero appeal. His nomination day supporters were school going children.
KJ has some minor appeal only because of his parentage, and the fact that SCM drummed him up quite a bit in 2009 and 2010, before the major fallout. Maybe a couple bohemians might actually take well to his Brit accent or his supposedly high profile career in the hedge fund industry, who knows?? But of course there are few bohemians in PE.
Suspect that KJ/DL combined will achieve at least 6%.
I think the SCM got it right, it will be a close race between LLL and the good Doctor. Almost like a two way straight fight except that some minor dilution will come from KJ/DL, enough to put in doubt her chance of winning.
At this stage we should be urging PE voters to vote tactically if they want to become an oppo ward.
DL has zero appeal. His nomination day supporters were school going children.
KJ has some minor appeal only because of his parentage, and the fact that SCM drummed him up quite a bit in 2009 and 2010, before the major fallout. Maybe a couple bohemians might actually take well to his Brit accent or his supposedly high profile career in the hedge fund industry, who knows?? But of course there are few bohemians in PE.
Suspect that KJ/DL combined will achieve at least 6%.
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