aurvandil,
TKL lost because he simply could not match other candidates in terms of bearing, charisma, ability to articulate himself. People like TJS had a solid platform, clearly identified himself as pro-opposition and people knew exactly where he stood on issues. Compared to TKL, no one could discern what TKL stood for.
TCB captured the middle ground votes, votes from the moderate oppo as well as the moderate PAP camp. His platform was not as clear as TJS but people identified him as a veteran politician who has a lifetime of experience behind him, a person of solid character and outstanding record of public service. He was an obvious alternative for the middle ground who wanted a check on the government but was not prepared for radical change. Those were his pull factors.
Of course TT attracted the hard core PAP who wanted continuity in terms of a President who will support the government and not rock the boat. TT also projected an image of steadiness and the cool of an elderly statesman. It went down well with the hard core PAP camp and those with vested interests in PAP continuity (mainly business and professional interests).
In short, few people were really thinking in terms of strategy. Everyone I spoke to looked at the candidates and voted the one they felt comfortable with. TKL attracted mainly sympathy votes and some from the minibond camp. If people thought seriously about strategy, many would have realized that only TCB had the ability to pull both pro oppo and pro PAP votes. That was the mistake I made myself. I'm sure many people from the oppo camp or the oppo leaning camp made the same mistake.
I know of one PAP voter who voted TJS because she felt he projected a unique image and also because she knew an "oppo president" would not really affect PAP given the very limited nature of presidential powers. It all came down to one off factors and personal branding. Strategy was never the forefront of voter consciousness.
For GE and BE, here will always be a small minority of voters who vote based on gender, physical appearance, and other factors that normally we would deem irrelevant. Race also comes in, especially for a certain segment of the population.
A woman candidate will be shunned by a small minority of men. Ever wonder why DL is so eager jumping up and down since 2011 when LLL contested? Its not just because he has walked the ground before. He knows he has a gender advantage, enough to get him at least 3-5% in a 3CF.
I think most Singaporeans think of themselves as being PAP or Opposition. I don't think there are hardcore SDP or WP supporters outside of those who have joined the parties.
The Presidential Election was crucial to analyze the behavior of how voters would vote in the event of a split. The empirical evidence suggest that Singapore voters think strategy and give their vote to the person most likely to be able to meet their objectives. TKL was not a bad candidate. He suffered and lost deposit in the Presidential Election because relative to the others, very few people thought he could win.
Going back to the Punggol East BE, I think there is hardly anyone who believes that RP or SDA can win. Hence my projection that RP and SDA combined should get less than 1,000 votes. This leaves WP with a vote swing of 8% or more to achieve victory. I think this is do-able if WP ramps it up. There are a multitude of issues they can raise and discuss.
The presence of RP and SDA complicates matters. The msm will give them plenty of coverage to try and eat into the WP vote share. RP and SDA will use the opportunity to sound brave and bold. If WP acts in their trademark quiet way, they will be perceived as being weak. They are therefore not going to achieve the 8% swing that they need. To get the 8% swing, WP is going to have to bring it and show Singaporeans that they are indeed worthy of being the undisputed 2nd driver in Singapore politics.
As part of being the big brother in Opposition politics, it would be wonderful if WP can embrace TJS suggestion to reach out to SDP. NSP and SPP. If they can invite leaders from these 3 parties to speak at their rallies, it will bring things to a whole new level. Imagine Uncle Chiam, AYG, PT and Nicole showing face at the rallies to give WP support against the PAP ! It will further isolate RP/SDA as being spoilers that have no chance of winning.
