Good chances for WP to retain Sengkang GRC as well...:
-----------------------
The Workers’ Party (WP) has a strong chance of retaining Sengkang Group Representation Constituency (GRC) in Singapore’s GE 2025, with today being May 2, 2025, at 09:55 AM +08, the cooling-off day before polling. This four-member GRC, with 126,641 voters, pits WP’s incumbent team—led by He Ting Ru, with Jamus Lim, Louis Chua, and new candidate Abdul Muhaimin Abdul Malik—against a refreshed PAP team led by Lam Pin Min, with Theodora Lai, Elmie Nekmat, and Bernadette Giam. Let’s evaluate the factors shaping this contest.
Factors Favoring WP
- Incumbency Advantage: WP won Sengkang in 2020 with 52.13%, marking their second GRC victory. Over five years, He, Lim, and Chua have built a presence, addressing local issues like estate management despite challenges (e.g., no managing agent since 2023). Residents like S. Kumaran (Compassvale, 11 years) value their alternative voice, and Lillian Lim (61, Compassvale) leans toward WP if they perform well, reflecting grassroots support.
- Young Voter Base: With over 50% of residents under 40 and 19.2% over 60, Sengkang’s youthful demographic aligns with WP’s focus on cost-of-living and housing affordability—key GE 2025 issues. Jamus Lim’s economic expertise and He Ting Ru’s relatable leadership appeal to this group, as seen in their 2020 upset against Ng Chee Meng’s PAP team.
- PAP’s Rebuilt Team: PAP’s frequent team changes (e.g., Ng Chee Meng, Amrin Amin, and Raymond Lye replaced by 2025) signal instability. Lam Pin Min, the sole 2020 holdover, faces a credibility gap after the loss, and the new faces lack the incumbency edge WP enjoys. Residents may see this as PAP’s attempt to “earn back trust,” as Lam stated, but it’s untested.
Factors Against WP
- Past Scandals and Perception: Raeesah Khan’s 2021 resignation for lying in Parliament damaged WP’s reputation, though the impact has faded. Some residents, like Fionn Cheong (53, Rivervale), prioritize candidate quality, and PAP could exploit this by highlighting WP’s direct town council management issues (e.g., rats and ants at Compassvale, per Noor Idzwan, 25).
- PAP’s Resource Edge: PAP’s SG60 Cares initiative (S$60 Shopee credits) and grassroots networks outmatch WP’s resources. Lam’s seniority and the team’s focus on national stability may sway older voters (19.2% over 60), who value continuity over change.
- Boundary Stability: Sengkang’s unchanged boundaries since 2020 (per EBRC report) favor WP’s established base, but the 6,631 new voters (from 120,010 in 2020 to 126,641 in 2025) from projects like Rivervale Shores could lean PAP if they prioritize HDB benefits tied to the ruling party.
Sentiment and Context
WP’s 2020 win (52.13%) was a slim margin, driven by a young electorate and Ng Chee Meng’s high-profile loss. Prime Minister Lawrence Wong’s post-2020 remark that PAP’s vote share won’t exceed 65% due to diversity demands supports WP’s case, as Sengkang’s profile fits this trend. Posts on X suggest a toss-up, with some predicting WP above 55%, reflecting confidence in their incumbency. However, PAP’s aggressive push to reclaim this GRC—evident in their refreshed team—indicates they see a winnable fight, especially with new voters.
Critical Perspective
The GRC system, while ensuring minority representation, structurally benefits PAP through resource disparities and boundary stability that favor incumbents once entrenched. WP’s direct town council management, though a sign of autonomy, risks alienating voters if service lapses persist, a vulnerability PAP could exploit. The narrative of WP as a credible opposition, bolstered by Jamus Lim’s debate prowess, contrasts with PAP’s reliance on seasoned names, but the latter’s ability to mobilize last-minute support (e.g., via SG60 Cares) could tip the scales. Voter turnout—historically high in contested GRCs—will be decisive.
Conclusion
WP’s chances of retaining Sengkang GRC are 60–65%, leveraging incumbency, a young voter base, and PAP’s past loss. PAP’s 35–40% likelihood reflects their resource advantage and new voter potential, but the scandal’s legacy and team turnover weaken their position. The race hinges on WP maintaining service delivery and mobilizing youth support, with a close outcome expected on May 3, 2025.
--------------------------------
Source: Grok AI